Free Picks for Tuesday, August 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CARDINALS AT BREWERS
PLAY: BREWERS -118
Quick take on this game. Carlos Martinez has top of the rotation stuff to be sure. But for whatever reason, the Cardinals righty hasn’t been sharp for some time now. Aside from one good outing at Pittsburgh, most of the recent Martinez starts just haven’t been very good.
Jimmy Nelson has realized his potential this season for the Brewers. Nelson might not be getting the big time publicity nationally, but the Milwaukee right-hander has put together a very nice season snd Nelson has been terrific at home.
I think the Brewers are a bit underpriced here, as I projected this number more in the -130 range. Getting a little value with Milwaukee isn’t a bad deal, so I’m making the Brewers my Tuesday free play.
Scott Rickenbach
Arizona vs. Chicago
Play: Arizona +163
The Diamondbacks are off of a loss but had won 7 of their prior 12 and have only lost 2 straight games once in the past two weeks. That said, there is a good shot of a bounce back game from Arizona here and they're offering great line value here as a sizable dog. Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Dbacks and he is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. That included a pair of solid efforts on the road so don't be fooled by his full season road record as Corbin does appear to be turning things around away from home. Also, the Arizona southpaw has enjoyed success versus the Cubs in his career with a perfect 3-0 record and 3.32 ERA as a starter versus Chicago. The Cubs will have Jon Lester on the mound for this one. He has a 7.50 ERA in his last two home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Though Lester has been pitching well of late he has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Also, he is only a modest 4-3 in home starts this season. The Cubs are 18-22 (DOWN $9,400) in their games versus teams with a winning record this season. Arizona is 5-3 (UP $3,600) as a road dog in a price range of +125 to +175 this season. Look for the Diamondbacks to improve to 12-5 this season in Tuesday games as they get the upset at a great price here!
Andrew Marchenko
FK Karabakh vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol
Play: Under 2
The first game between these two was extremely dry with only 6 shots on target from both sides. This is going to be the second game between them which means that the level of responsibility raises up high. A forfeit goal means a blow out from the tournament, especially for the home team. I believe that Sheriff will be playing very carefully defensively and whichever team scores first will save the advantage. My prediction is 1-0, 0-1 in either side
Art Aronson
Phillies vs. Angels
Play: Under 8½
Aaron Nola: He’s 8-6 with a 3.17 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten over six scoreless innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Astros on Wednesday. The ten K’s were a career-high for the Phillies’ starter. Nola owns a solid 3.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 and is 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA in all “night” games this year.
Ricky Nolasco: He’s 4-12 with a 5.07 ERA. Nolasco most recently gave up three runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings while striking out four in what turned out to be a 10-4 loss to the Indians on Wednesday.
The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher is “recent performance.” Recent form exhibited by each of tonight’s starting pitchers suggests than runs could be at a premium in this one.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -142
Edges - Rockies: Hoffman 2-0 vs NL East opponents this season… Mets: Matz 0-3 vs NL West opponents this season, and 1-5 as a dog this season… With Matz sporting a 6.48 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in his last seven overall starts, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -142
Edges - Rockies: Hoffman 2-0 vs NL East opponents this season… Mets: Matz 0-3 vs NL West opponents this season, and 1-5 as a dog this season… With Matz sporting a 6.48 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in his last seven overall starts, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Marlins
Pick: Under 8
Washington is 11-4 under the total against a southpaw starter. They have ace Max Scherzer (12-5, 2,.23 ERA), with 210 Ks in 145 innings and batters hitting .170 off him. Miami is a big park, great for pitchers. Miami's Chris O'Grady has thrown well, with 21 Ks in 22 innings and batters hitting .238 off him. He just threw 7 shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Reds. And the Under is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Miami.
Rocketman
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -126
The NY Mets travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Tuesday night. The NY Mets are 48-55 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 60-46 SU overall record on the season. Steven Matz is 2-4 with a 5.51 ERA overall this year and 0-2 with a 16.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Matz is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in his 2 career starts vs Colorado. NY Mets are allowing 5.5 runs per game on the road this year and 5.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Colorado is scoring 5.3 runs per game overall this year, 6.3 runs per game at home this season and 5.5 runs per game against left handed starters. NY Mets are 9-23 this year against a team with a winning record. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!
Brandon Lee
Giants vs. A's
Play:A'S -118
Oakland is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Giants. With San Francisco's 5-8 loss to the A's yesterday, they now own baseball's worst win percentage at 40-67. The Giants have lost 4 straight overall and are just 3-8 in their last 11. Not to mention they are an ugly 18-38 on the road this season, while Oakland is quietly 7-games over .500 at 31-24. The A's have won 3 straight and will send out Sean Manaea, who is 8-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 19 starts and off a strong outing in his last start at Toronto. SF will send out the struggling Jeff Samardzija, who is 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 11 road starts and owns a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts overall.
Scott Spreitzer
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -135
The Mets' lefty is an absolute mess right now, having allowed 21 earned runs, 34 hits, and 4 home runs in his last four starts, spanning just 13 1/3 IP. It's tough to imagine Matz getting healthy at Coors Field where the Rockies crush opposing pitchers, averaging 6.33 rpg. It's also tough to imagine Matz getting much help from a bullpen ranked 27th in MLB in ERA. Jeff Hoffman hasn't exactly been tearing things up in the runs allowed column, but he's lasted six or more innings in four of his last six starts and he's barely been missing his spots as some close to the Rockies have stated. The Mets have won just 8 of their last 31 against teams with a winning record, while the Rockies aim for their 6th straight win against pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30.
Chip Chirimbes
Minnesota at San Diego
Play: San Diego -105
Minnesota blew their opportunity to improve their pitching and have fallen 3-games below .500 and are dropping fast. The Padres will start Jhoulys Chacin (10-7, 4.22 ERA) who is 4-0 in his last five starts while the Twins are starting Jose Berrios (9-4, 3.76) who has lost twice in his last three starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies vs. Angels
Play: Under 8
I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in Tuesday's series opener between the Philies and Angels. Philadelphia comes in having won 5 straight, but also just finished up a 10-game homestand and had to travel across the country for this series. I think the Phillies come out flat here and let's not forget this a team that is a mere 16-36 on the road, scoring just 3.9 runs/game away from home.
That's good news for Angels starter Ricky Nolasco, who is coming off a strong outing in Cleveland, where he allowed just 3 runs over 6 2/3 innings. Phillies counter with Aaron Nola, who has been a major bright spot on a bad season. Nola is 8-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 16 starts overall, but it's work of late that has really been impressive. Nola has a sensational 1.48 ERA over 7 straight quality starts.
UNDER is 8-1-2 in Angels last 11 home games against a right-handed starter and 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games. UNDER is also an impressive 20-9-2 in Nolasco's last 31 starts and 4-0 in Nola's last 4 when pitching with a full 5 days of rest.
Jack Jones
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals +106
The Milwaukee Brewers are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the NL Central. They are just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall. They have actually gone an entire week without getting a hit with runners in scoring position (0-for-31).
The Cardinals have won five of their last seven and now send ace Carlos Martinez to the mound tonight. Martinez is 7-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has owned the Brewers, going 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.
Jimmy Nelson is having a solid season overall for the Brewers at 8-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.198 WHIP In 21 starts. However, he is facing his nemesis tonight in the Cardinals. Nelson has never beaten them, going 0-7 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in 10 career starts against St. Louis.
Milwaukee is 5-17 in its last 22 home games after scoring 2 runs or less in two straight games coming in. The Cardinals are 21-9 in Martinez's last 30 starts when working on 5 days' rest. The Brewers are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Larry Wallace
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Blue Jays -1½
Love Toronto here. Although they were sellers at the deadline yesterday I expect them to win today vs the lowly White Sox. Toronto's struggles this season are not the fault of Stroman, who has yielded three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 21 starts. The Duke product is struggling with his control of late and walked five over 7 2/3 innings at Cleveland on July 22 before issuing six in only 4 2/3 frames against Oakland on Thursday. Stroman walked just one in seven innings against the White Sox on June 17 but still ended up with a loss after yielding three runs and six hits. Pelfrey is winless in his last seven appearances - six starts - and is trying to work deeper into games after failing to record an out in the sixth inning in any of the six turns. The Wichita State product was ripped for five runs on six hits - two homers - and two walks in five innings by the Chicago Cubs on Thursday while yielding a pair of home runs.