Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -166
The Pirates have had some curious struggles against the Reds this season (just 1-6 against them!), but that should change here as they are catching their NL Central rival at a most opportune time. Cincy is just 3-14 since the All-Star Break and seeing that they're off a rare win (Sunday over Miami), tonight seems like an excellent opportunity to fade them. Considering the Bucs just struggled against another inferior foe (San Diego), you might be leery of the juice on this sub-.500 team, but don't be.
I can say one thing is for certain here and that's Jameson Taillon can't be any worse here than he was his last time out. He allowed 10 runs - 9 earned - in just 3 IP against the Giants in what still represents the lone time Madison Bumgarner has won this year. But the Bucs starter has typically been much better than that this year and I like the fact he hasn't allowed a single HR in five consecutive outings. Note the Pirates are 14-5 this season as a ML home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.
Fortunately for Taillon, his counterpart Homer Bailey has been awful all season, not just for one start. Bailey comes into tonight's contest sporting an 8.37 ERA and 2.010 WHIP in his seven starts. His last time out, he actually allowed more hits that Taillon did last Tuesday. By the way, a full week off in between starts should do Taillon some good here. Meanwhile, I don't think there's any helping Bailey at this point. Nor is there any helping the Reds on the road as they are 17-34 and being outscored by 1.4 runs per game. Should be an easy one for the home team.
Buster Sports
San Francisco at Oakland
Play: Oakland -120
The Giants play their second game in Oakland tonight after losing their first one 8-5 last night. We like them to lose the second one as well. The starting pitchers are for the Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (5-11, 4.85 ERA) and he will face the Athletics LH Sean Manaea (8-5, 3.82 ERA) Samardzija is having an up-and-down year. When he has faced Oakland in his career, he is 1-2 with the 10.06 ERA. As for Manaea, he has been very consistent for Oakland this year. In 9 home starts he is 4-1 with a solid 3.64 ERA. The Giants are one of the worst teams in MLB going against left-handed pitching sitting at 27th with a .678 OPS. We believe Oakland will get to Samardzija and the Giants will have their hands full with Manaea. Backing our selection is the fact that the Athletics are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter and the fact that Giants are 5-14 in the last 19 meetings in Oakland.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Play: Kansas City +113
KC is on a big run of late and will look to bounce back for a close loss last night. Baltimore has lost 10 of 14 vs winning teams and KC has won 12 of 16 vs losing teams and is scoring over 6 runs per game the past week. The Orioles fit a negative 82% system that plays against home favorites off a home win that scored 2 or less runs but had 10+ hits. Bundy has Struggled for Balty with a 7.72 era in his last 3 starts. Kennedy quietly has better overall numbers and has won his last 3. They Royals have won 3 of the 4 games this season.
Dave Essler
San Francisco at Oakland
Play: Oakland -119
I will back Manaea most every chance I get. For starters, the Giants on the road are 18-38 and their bullpen has a WHIP of 2.30 over the last week with three blown saves. If Samardzija didn't have the "name," Oakland would be more expensive. The A's won last night, and are 31-24 at home, and much to my surprise, after trading Doolittle and Madson their bullpen has been pretty solid. Oakland continues to play hard even after losing the pitchers and now Sonny Gray, which was a foregone conclusion. The Giants packed it in months ago, and are 13-21 against left handed pitching. And Manaea is a GOOD left handed pitcher.
Alex Smart
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Indians +152
Indians starter Carrasco held the Angels to two runs over 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday, striking out five and walking none. The big right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 11 road starts this year. I know he goes against the ace of the Red Sox rotation, Chris Sale, however, the BoSox hurler is just 5-7 with a 4.07 in 27 career appearances (16 starts) against Cleveland.The Indians have some good numbers against Sale. Francisco Lindor is 8-for-16 (.500), Edwin Encarnacion 5-for-13 (.385), Jose Ramirez 5-for-14 (.357) and Carlos Santana 12-for-30 (.300) with a homer. and must not be underestimated a value line here today.SALE is 5-13 L/18 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season dating back to last season. CARRASCO team when he starts is 21-6 L/27 against the money line in road games in night games.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Houston
Pick: Houston -104
Tampa Bay has a losing road record and plays its sixth straight road game. Starter Chris Archer has a 4.15 ERA on the road and faces a Houston team that is tops in baseball in runs scored. The Rays are 5-16 when Archer is on the road against a team with a winning record. Houston is on a 65-32 run, 54-22 against a right-handed starter. Astros starter Mike Fiers has posted ERAs under 3.00 in each of the last two months and has been better at home with a 2.85 mark. The Astros are 17-8 in Fiers' last 25 home starts. Tampa Bay is 22-46 on the road against a team with a winning record, while Houston is 36-15 vs. a team with a poor bullpen, whose ERA is 4.20 or worse.
Steve Janus
Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -130
Play Against - Any team (KANSAS CITY) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or worse) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better) -AL, hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 15 games. This system is 52-21 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
John Martin
Rays vs. Astros
Play:Rays -103
The Houston Astros are without Carlos Correa and George Springer right now. They have just been mediocre since the All-Star Break and were due for some regression. I expect the talented Chris Archer to shut them down tonight. Archer is 7-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 22 starts this year, and 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. He has dominated the Astros with a 4-2 record and a 1.68 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in seven previous starts against them. The Rays have gone 5-2 in those seven games.
Dave Price
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -1½
I believe it's a safe bet that the Washington Nationals will win by 2 runs or more against the Miami Marlins Tuesday night. Ace Max Scherzer gets the ball and he's 12-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 21 starts, and 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 12 road starts this year. Chris O'Grady makes just his 5th start of the season after going 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 4 starts for the Marlins. Scherzer is 6-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts vs. Miami. The Nationals are 23-6 in Scherzer's last 29 starts vs. NL East opponents. Washington is 24-5 in Scherzer's last 29 road starts off a win, outscoring foes by 2.5 RPG in this spot.
Matt Fargo
Arizona vs. Chicago
Play: Arizona +160
Arizona rolls into Chicago a half-game ahead of Colorado in the National League Wild Card standings while sitting six games clear of Milwaukee which is currently in third place. The Diamondbacks have been average since the All-Star Break and are coming off a four-game split against the Cardinals to open this 10-game roadtrip. Arizona is three games under .500 on the road and it is still 3.5 games better than the Cubs but this line is telling us a different story. The Diamondbacks have won their last four series openers by a combined score of 31-9. The Cubs are back home following a successful roadtrip where they went 4-1 and they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the break as they have won 13 of 16 games and that is playing a big role in this number. The pitching has been outstanding as Chicago has allowed three runs or less in 14 of its last 15 games and more of the same is expected tonight but this is the biggest test thus far as Arizona is ranked No. 7 in baseball with a .774 OPS. Jon Lester is having a solid yet inconsistent season although he is riding a three-game quality start streak. He has been better at home than on the road but not of late though as he has posted a 6.20 ERA over his last five home starts. Patrick Corbin gets the ball for Arizona and while his overall numbers do not look very good, he has been more than dependable of late. He has allowed three runs or less in nine straight starts including two or less seven times. Over his last four road starts, he has put up a 3.13 ERA.
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Bruce Marshall
Phillies at Angels
Pick: Phillies
The Phils are no longer a dangerous recommendation, catching a second wind in July and beginning their road trip on the heels of a 4-game sweep over the Braves. For this rare trip to Anaheim, will back Aaron Nola, off of a superb July and having allowed just 8 runs over 48 1/3 IP in his last seven starts (1.16 ERA). The Phils are thus a very live dog against Ricky Nolasco, especially since the Angels have lost in 14 of his alst 16 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ +115 over Cincinnati
Homer Bailey was hammered for eight earned runs in his first 2017 start, allowing six hits with three walks issued and 2 K’s in 1.2 innings. He returned from 2016 elbow surgery to remove bone spurs after returning from Tommy John surgery. Bailry had been limited to only eight starts since 2014 before his 2017 debut. He’s seven starts in this year and he has a BB/K split of 14/20 in 33 innings, a WHIP of 2.01 and an xERA of 6.38. The Reds are just seeing what they got here. They have time and money invested into Bailey and they want to see if he can fully rebound. This experiment may work out but right now, don’t let them experiment on your bankroll. This arbitrage play couldn’t have failed more spectacularly thus far.
Jameson Taillon has overcome several health issues already throughout his young career, including a big one this year. Diagnosed in early May with testicular cancer, he missed just over a month before returning to the Pittsburgh rotation. We’ve backed Taillon many times this season and that’s because there has been great value and because there is a lot to like in his skill-set. Given his top prospect pedigree, more whiffs could be in his future than the 73 he’s posted in 76 frames. He keeps the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate, and plays in a home park that plays neutral for LHB, while reducing RHB homers by 24%. The point is that Taillon isn't going to run into too many problems via the long ball, and is also due for some better luck on balls in play. Taillon was blasted for nine earned runs in his latest outing, which bumped his ERA up nearly a full run and lowered his stock but he's been solid all season. He's combined a strong ground ball tilt with the ability to miss bats, but he is still not getting the credit he deserves. That’s when we step in.
Arizona +160 over CHICAGO
If you bet the Cubbies here, you will be paying a massive premium to back the second best starter in the game and you’ll also pay extra to bet on Chicago at Wrigley. Regardless of outcome, this is great value that must be played. Jon Lester has eight wins in 22 starts. He’s lost only six times but his velocity is down while both his WHIP and xERA are up over last year’s mark. Jon Lester’s first-pitch strike rate is below average at 54%. The dude can pitch but he’s not the pitcher he used to be and we’ve seen plenty of shaky outings from him all year long. He’s also been tagged for 19 jacks in 130 frames overall and he’s been tagged for two jacks in three of his last four starts. Fatigue setting in perhaps? Even if it’s not fatigue, Lester is beatable these days.
Buy skills and not stats is something we always preach. This is another example of that. Patrick Corbin might not seem like someone worth targeting given his 4.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. However, few starters have enjoyed a bigger skills growth from 2016 (4.49 xERA) to 2017 (3.41 xERA) than Corbin has. An inflated 36% hit rate (don’t ignore the park he pitches in) has been the real reason for his surface struggles. With an elite 2.88 xERA over the last 30 days that has been supported by a top-tier 14% swing and miss rate, a 70% first-pitch strike rate, a 50% groundball rate and 34 K’s over his past 29 innings, Corbin makes for a prime stretch-run target. At this price, he and the “going for it” Snakes are absolutely worth a bet. Big overlay here.
Philadelphia +127 over L.A. ANGELS
The Angels return home from an East Coast trip, they’re going nowhere this year and they had a day off yesterday. That doesn’t set the Angels up well for this opener and neither does Ricky Nolasco on the hill. Nolasco’s stellar control remains intact but so does his sub-par K-rate and HR issues. He’s just another overpaid stiff that is usually around the plate with pedestrian stuff. Nolasco has been and will continue to be in the bottom tier of starting pitchers.
The Phillies were very competitive all of last year and with a year under their belt, things were supposed to be even better this year. It hasn’t been and now with their stock low and their form getting better, the Phillies could offer up some great profits the rest of the year. As badly as everything has seemed to go, not much of what the ongoing rebuild is built around has changed. Aaron Altherr has added to his stock price. Maikel Franco has seen his diminish. Both guys are ongoing projects though but both are hugely talented; ditto for the rotation trio of Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola. Based on the line here, this market is fully unaware of how talented Nola is.
Nola has posted a 3.17/2.96 ERA/xERA split through 16 starts with an elite 107 K’s in 99 innings. He has a terrific K-rate, an elite groundball rate of 50% a 14% swing and miss rate and he also has great control. Even in a home park that increases home runs from both sides of the plate, Nola is so good that his numbers are unaffected. This is one of the best pitchers in baseball getting a tag against Ricky Nolasco and frankly it’s absurd. Invest.
N.Y. Mets -1½ +225 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
17-27 + 20.15 units
Eric Schroeder
Let's play the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals as my free play tonight, as I like Jimmy Nelson over Carlos Martinez in this one.
Straight forward, nothing else, this one is about Nelson, who has continued to be a solid force out of the Brewers' rotation, and tonight he steps to the mound after making his team-leading 12th quality start in a no-decision versus the Washington Nationals last Wednesday. He'll be motivated for the win here, as he is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against these Cardinals this season.
On the flip side, we have Martinez, who struggled in July to the tune of a 5.90 ERA over five starts. He is in after allowing five runs in three of those outings. In his most recent start against the Colorado Rockies, he was tagged for five runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings.
Take Milwaukee and list both.
2* BREWERS
Jack Brayman
It's never easy to take a team from the East, when it is playing in Denver. Something always seems to go wrong, and the Colorado Rockies seem to go off. But tonight I'm taking the New York Mets and listing Steven Matz over Jeff Hoffman, as we have a rematch on our hands from mid-July.
This is a good time for Matz to rebound, as he's 0-3 with a 14.18 ERA over his last four starts. That sounds bad, and I get it, as his season ERA has nearly tripled over that stretch while opposing batters have hit .472 off him. But if there was ever a place he needs to regroup, it's Coors Field, where he has never previously pitched.
The Mets will get to Hoffman, who has lasted a total of seven innings, while allowing 14 runs (13 earned) and 16 hits in his last two starts. He can be tempermental, and appears to react when calls don't go his way. His downfall could be his mental game.
4* METS