Free Picks and Service Plays for Tuesday, August 2nd, 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
MIAMI VS CHICAGO
PLAY: MIAMI -115
A briefer than usual analysis here, as I’m basically simply willing to wager on a starting pitcher I expect to throw well this evening at Wrigley Field.
Jose Fernandez off a bad start has been pretty amazing, and that’s the basis of this play. Granted, the Marlins ace is not quite as dominant on the road as he is at home. But when Fernandez has the rare outing where he gets battered, I want to be backing him next time out if the price isn’t prohibitive.
Jason Hammel is going pretty well for the Cubs, and needless to say, trying to beat this team is never going to be a no brainer call. But with Kershaw on the sidelines, I think an argument can be made that Fernandez is the best pitcher in the game for the time being and with his history of strong rebounds off a bad game, I’m betting the Marlins to get this one in the win column.
Sleepyj
Giants -1.5 -125
Giants are much better and I get the teams ace on the mound...Bumgarner turns up the heat this time of year..Giants are solid and the power they have in the lineup can do them good here in this park...Eflin for Philly has been up and down..Can;t talk bad about the guy, but this lineup might give him fits if he isn't dialed in...This just looks like a mismatch IMO..Madbum should be able to deliver a slid game Vs. Philly lineup...I'll take the Giants on the Rl (-1.5)
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis -155
The Cardinals average nearly 6 runs per game on the road and are 10-3 as a road favorite in this range. They have won 6 of the last 7 vs losing teams and apply to a solid 85% road warrior system. The Reds are 2-7 as a home dog from +125 to +150 and 19-41 vs winning teams. The MLB RBI Leader Jay Bruce is out of their lineup and the white flag is up. Straily has pitched well for them and makes his first start vs the Cards who have a hit Wainwright on the mound as he has won his last three with a 2.49 era. Play on the Red birds.
Mike Lundin
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Nationals -142
The Washington Nationals annihilated the Arizona Diamondbacks in a 14-1 rout on Monday. I like the Nats to record another victory in Tuesday's contest with Tanner Roark on the mound.
Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) hasn't allowed an earned run in 18 1/3 career innings against Arizona in five appearances (two starts), and he held the Giants to one run and four hits over seven innings his last time out.
The D'Backs turn to Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70) who is 3-4 behind a 5.17 ERA in 10 outings home at Chase Field this season. He's allowed a total of 11 runs (eight earned) in his last two starts combined.
Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Ray's last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game and the Nationals are 13-6 in their last 19 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Yankees +116
Edges - Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka 19.4 ERA away as opposed to 4.30 ERA home this season; and 6-1 with 3.70 ERA last 7 overall team starts. Mets: Jacob DeGrom 0-2 with 5.25 ERA career team starts in this series. With Tanaka sporting a 1.20 career ERA in this series, look for the Pinstripes to improve to 8-2 the last 10 games in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Jim Feist
Brewers vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
Milwaukee's offense hits at home but they are a terrible road team and head to Petco Park, a huge stadium that is great for pitchers. Milwaukee is 10-4-1 under the total on the road and 15-4-3 under against a right-handed starter. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies (3.59 ERA) has had a fine season and pitched 6.1 quality innings, allowing two earned runs, six hits and one walk while striking out five in Thursday's win over the Diamondbacks. He faces a weak San Diego offense that is #19 in baseball in runs, second to last in on base percentage. The Under is 6-1 in the Padres last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Luis Perdomo is throwing better, with the team 4-1 his last five starts. And the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Bob Harvey
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play: Rangers -112
A pair of teams who were busy at the trade deadline square off in Baltimore where the Orioles host the Texas Rangers. The Rangers and Yu Darvish are -112 moneyline favorites over the Birds and Dylan Bundy.
The Rangers (62-44, 28-27 road) upgraded their offense acquiring DH Carlos Beltran from the Yankees, along with catcher Jonathan Lucroy and relief pitcher Jeremy Jeffress from Milwaukee.
The Orioles (58-45, 37-16 home)were in the market for starting pitching but couldn’t pull off the deal for the top-of-the-rotation starter they were seeking and instead grabbed Wade Miley for the back of the rotation. Baltimore is locked in a three-way battle for AL East supremacy with the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. They put an end to a five-game losing streak with a 12-inning win over the Blue Jays on Sunday.
A pair of rigththanders will collide in the series opener. Darvish (2-2, 3.09 ERA) has pitched well since returning from the disabled list on July 16. He allowed two earned runs in each of his last three outings and notched 26 strikeouts in 16 frames. Former first round pick Dylan Bundy (3-3, 3.46 ERA) took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before surrendering a pair of home runs in a loss to the Colorado Rockies. He worked three perfect innings of relief at Texas on June 20, striking out three.
The Rangers are 4-10 in their past 14 road games but 7-1 in their eight meetings against the Orioles.
Alex Smart
Red Sox vs. Mariners
Play: Red Sox -163
Price allowed just one run and eight hits in eight innings in a victory against the Seattle Mariners on June 19 to improve to 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career trips to the hill against them. The Bosox southpaw pitched a gem last time out vs the Angels, and currently looks strong enough to give us another opportunity to cash a ticket behind him in this spot. Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Red Sox are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Chase Diamond
Milwaukee at San Diego
Play: San Diego
Late night game between the 47-57 Brewers and the 46-60 Padres. Luis Perdomo goes for the Padres he has won 2 straight starts and the 23 year old prospect is starting to turn the season around as he seems to be able to keep the Padres in games. Brewers really struggle on the road at 17-32 and getting plus money in this game is an absolute gift. 62% are laying on the road team yet this line has dipped from -123 to -110 showing us the sharps are backing the home Padres big time and so will we.
Don Anthony
Giants / Phillies Under 4 1st Half
I love this play because it takes 5 runs to beat us here. I also feel that it's the safer bet than taking under 7.5 for the game because we won't have to worry about the bullpens. It's almost certain that Madison Bumgarner is going to give you 5 innings. He has pitched 5 or more innings in every start this year and you have go to back to April 11 of last year to find a start where he didn't go that deep into the ball game. It's hard to imagine MadBum giving up more than a run in the first 5 innings, against this Phillies line up, that has gone under the total in 8 of their last 9 home games. Zach Eflin goes for the Phils and even though he has been up and down this year, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball his last start against the Giants and given the way the Giants offense has been performing post All-Star break, runs look like they are going to be tough to come by in this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -120
Zach Davies is quietly becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League with an 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA and four quality starts in a row. Davies has allowed only five earned runs his last 26 1/3 innings and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts. The right-hander was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in July and gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings against San Diego in one appearance this year. Meanwhile, Luis Perdomo has a 6.89 ERA and has been blessed by good run support, but he has a 9.00 ERA at home while allowing 26 runs and 46 hits in 26 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five games and the Padres have lost nine of their last 14 games.
Buster Sports
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Washington Nationals -145
The Nationals pounded the Diamondbacks last night and we see another good performance from them tonight. The Nationals send RH Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) to the mound against the Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70 ERA) Roark has pitched well all year and in his last 7 appearances to the mound he has a 4-1 record, with a 2.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.04. On the road he has a respectable 5-2 record with a 3.15 ERA. As for Ray he hasn't pitched very well of late as he has a 1-5 record with a 5.18 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.30 in his last 7 starts. At home Ray has not fared much better, as he is sporting a 5.01 ERA with a WHIP of 1.527. Backing our selection is the fact that the Nationals are 7-1 in Roark's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record and that the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Rays last 7 starts.
Dwayne Bryant
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -121
Not a fan of KC's Yordano Ventura and his 4.87 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. Ventura also owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road this season. He walks too many batters for my liking.
Matt Andriese has been very solid for the Rays, and his 2.92 ERA, 3.15 FIP & 4.24 xFIP give him the clear edge over Mr. Ventura. Unlike his counterpart, Andriese does not walk many batters (17 BB in 72 IP). Andriese allowed just two earned runs in 11.2 total innings in his two career starts against the Royals (one in '15 and one this season).
KC's bullpen has been a complete disaster lately, while the Rays' pen has been solid.
We also have a clear offensive edge with the Rays. Tampa Bay ranks #14 in the league against righties, while KC ranks #23. And I think the offensive gap is even greater than that.
My line on this game is Rays -150, so clear value for me on Tampa Bay. The Royals are just 18-36 on the road this season, and they are clearly trending south.
Carmine Bianco
Viktoria Plzen at Qarabag FK
Play: Under 2
We took the Under in the first leg in what was expected to be tight and low scoring in my opinion and they didn't disappoint with a scoreless draw. Expecting much the same here with a spot in the next round up for grabs. Neither team will be pressed to change formation and tactics here.