Marc Lawrence
Miami vs. Chicago
Play: Miami
Edges - Marlins: Jose Fernandez 3.20 ERA with 1.07 WHIP last 7 starts; and 1-0 career team starts in this series; and 4-1 versus N.L. Central foes this season. Cubs: Jason Hammel 0-2 last two starts versus Miami; and 1-5 versus N.L. East foes this season. With Fernandez in strong KW form with 46 Ks and 7 BBs in his last five starts.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Seattle
Pick: Boston -168
Boston has the top offense in baseball, a strong all-around team with plenty of motivation. The Red Sox posted a 2-1 victory over the Mariners in Monday's series opener behind homers from Aaron Hill and right fielder Mookie Betts. Boston has won three of its last four games and is in a virtual tie with the Toronto Blue Jays for the American League's two Wild Card spots. David Price (9-7) has turned things around, off another strong showing with eight shutout innings against the Angels. Price has been great in his career against Seattle, 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career starts. The Red Sox are 17-8 against the AL West and the Mariners are 3-7 at home vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle goes with Wade LeBlanc (4.26 ERA), making his first start since July 18. He has a losing home record the last four years and the Mariners are 4-9 when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.
Bob Balfe
Cubs -110
What a great pitchers duel we will see tonight. This is playoff type baseball in August. I give the edge to the Cubs here because they are excellent at home and Hammel has been a little bit better than Fernandez the last month of the season. This should be a thriller.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -1½ +131 over Chicago
Anibal Sanchez has an overall ERA of 6.46. In four July starts, Sanchez was even worse with an ERA of 8.41 to go along with a WHIP of 1.87. By contrast, James Shields owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last five starts after a horrible run when he first joined the South Side. Both pitchers now come into this start with extremely misleading surface stats and we’re going to try and take advantage.
Under the hood, Sanchez has regained the form that made him one of the nastiest pitchers in the game not so long ago. Anibal Sanchez made four starts in July and his skills looked rejuvenated in them with 12 K’s/9, 3.5 BB’s/9 and 42% groundballs. His underlying 11% swing and miss rate and 66% first-pitch strike rate gives support for his resurgent strikeout rate and solid command. The combination of a crazy high 49% hit rate and low 53% strand rate were the reasons for his 8.41 ERA and 1.87 WHIP during his July starts. Sanchez is a high-upside speculation down the stretch because his surface stats do not reveal how good he was in July but his xERA in July was a terrific 3.39.
Back to Shields’ 1.78 ERA over his last five starts. It’s all a mirage just like Big Game himself. Over those aforementioned five starts, Shields’ had a brutal BB/K split of 11/16 over 35 innings. His xERA of 5.25 over that stretch reveals that almost every hard hit ball was hit right at someone. Shields is not pitching any better now than he was when he first joined the White Sox and pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. Shields’ is still getting whacked and he’ll now face the Tigers for the third time this season. The first two times he faced Detroit, Shields’ allowed 16 hits and nine runs in 11 innings with five K’s and five walks issued. The tip of Shields’ decline started long ago and whatever success he has from here on in will be luck driven because he has no skills left whatsoever. James Shields will get hit hard here and it's just a matter of whether those balls find holes or not. We're betting the former.
SAN DIEGO +105 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are favored again in San Diego for the second straight night and once again it is not warranted. Zach Davies has generated a nifty 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts over July but we’re not buying it. Before you keep riding him, note that he doesn't miss bats at a high rate and is at the mercy of batted balls in play. Davies had just 17 K’s in 26 innings in July with a slightly below average swing and miss rate of 8%. His 36% ball% suggests that his pinpoint control won't stick. He gets away with a sub-90 mph fastball by using one of the better changeups in the NL (21% swing and miss % on it) but it's his only true strikeout pitch, so he's someone who could struggle the more that NL lineups see him. Historically, Davies has not been good prior to this year. He has a repeatable delivery and generates enough groundballs to be a #4 or #5 starter for quite some time but with that 88 MPH fastball and one strikeout pitch, he’ll likely never be better than he is right now, which is merely average.
Luis Perdomo is anything but average. He’s also a great example of surface stats being extremely misleading. Perdomo comes in with a 6.89 ERA after 10 starts and 25 overall appearances. We have written about Perdomo many times in the past and we’ll bring you up to speed on him again.Prior to this year, Perdomo hadn’t pitched above Single-A. He was also crushed in the spring. However, as a Rule 5 selection, even though he was selected by Colorado and immediately traded to the Padres, those restrictions transfer to his new team. In other words, if the Padres sent him down, they would lose him back to his former team. They were willing to roster him all year so as not to lose him and after spending much time in the pen and posting a 10.38 ERA in 15 appearances, the Padres moved him into the starting rotation in early June.
Perdomo has shaved four runs off his ERA since the move. He quietly posted a 3.45 ERA in July. He has a unique profile in that he can strike out batters with two filthy offerings and induce groundballs at an extreme level (62%). His solid 65% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball% combination reveals that he just keeps learning and getting better. In June, he was the only starting pitcher in the majors who combined a 12%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss % against it), we’re pretty sure that the Padres received 29 calls at the trade deadline inquiring about Perdomo before teams' inquired about James Shields, Colin Rea, Drew Pomeranz or Andrew Cashner. Most GM’s know all about Perdomo while this market knows very little. The window to buy low on him is closing fast.
Steve Janus
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Over 9½
Play Over - Road teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG .260or less) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or more) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL). This system is 37-9 (80%) against the total since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Orioles +112
I'll gladly back Baltimore as a home dog on Tuesday. The Orioles own one of baseball's best home records this season at 37-16 and I believe we are getting great value here due to the Rangers big moves yesterday on the trade deadline. We are also seeing a lot of respect here for Texas, due to them having Yu Darvish on the mound, but the Rangers have lost each of his last 4 starts. Baltimore will send out talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who has pitched very well in his first two home starts, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.750 WHIP with 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings of work. Texas is just 4-10 in their last 14 road games, 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 5 or more runs and 1-9 in their last 10 against a team that just scored 5 or more runs in their previous game.
Brandon Lee
Indians -1½ +100
Cleveland is going to be out for some serious revenge after yesterday's embarrassing 5-12 loss at home in the series opener. I look for the Indians to take care of Minnesota in a big way here, as they have a huge edge on the mound with Carlos Carrasco facing off against Kyle Gibson. Carrasco has been on fire with a 2.41 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts and owns a sensational 2.45 ERA overall in 15 starts. Gibson on the other hand is just 3-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 13 starts. He's really struggled on the road, where he has a 5.14 ERA in 5 outings and he also owns an ugly 5.80 ERA and 1.587 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Indians.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -148
The Washington Nationals exploded for 14 runs on 19 hits yesterday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Look for their bats to stay hot today against Robbie Ray, and for Tanner Roark to shut down the Diamondbacks in a blowout victory.
Roark is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 10-6 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Roark owns the Diamondbacks, pitching 14 shutout innings while allowing only 10 base runners for a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against them.
Robbie Ray has gone 5-10 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.496 WHIP in 21 starts this season for the Diamondbacks. He has been at his worst at home, going 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 10 starts. He is one of the numerous terrible starters for Arizona this season.
Ray is 0-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last three seasons. Arizona is 2-13 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last three seasons. The Diamondbacks are 1-12 (-11.6 Units) against the money line after two straight games with one or less extra base hits over the last two seasons.
ASA
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets -122
The Yankees rallied late from a 5-3 deficit and went on to win yesterday's game in extra innings. However, no matter how uplifting that victory was, the Yanks have been big sellers in this market as they continue to slash payroll. Certainly, in the short term, this has weakened both the bullpen and the lineup. As for today's starting pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka, he has struggled in each of his last two road starts. He has given up 11 runs (7 earned) in less than 10 innings of work. Jacob deGrom will be toeing the rubber for the Mets tonight and he is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA and a minuscule 1.02 WHIP in his home starts this season. The Mets are 33-15 when they are a home favorite in a price range of -125 to -150 and the Mets should get back on track after letting one slip away last night. The Yankees are 5-14 this season as a road dog in a range of +100 to +125. We'll grab the line value with the Mets at home Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies +114
Colorado is showing great value here as a home dog against the Dodgers. The Rockies are still within striking distance for a Wild Card spot (4.5 games back) and are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. Colorado is 9-2 over their last 11 having just won 3 straight series against the Braves, Orioles and Mets.
The key here is that the Rockies will have their young ace Jon Gray on the mound. After a rocky start to this season, Gray has pitched extremely well of late. He's got a sensational 0.86 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 runs or less in 5 straight starts. Dodgers will counter with Brandon McCarthy, who has also pitched well of late, but none of those came in the thin air of Coors Field. I look for McCarthy to struggle here and even if he pitches well, he's only averaging 5.3 innings/start.
Dodgers is 9-25 in their last 34 when listed with a money line of +125 to -125, 4-11 in their last 15 after a game with a combined score of 17 or more runs and 2-16 in McCarthy's last 18 road starts when listed a favorite of -100 to -150.
Dave Price
New York Mets -125
The New York Mets blew a 2-run lead in the 8th inning yesterday against the Yankees and should come back hungry today in this Subway Series. The Yankees have still lost 4 of their last 5 and were huge sellers at the deadline, so I certainly question their motivation right now. The Mets will give the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom, who is 6-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 18 starts this year, and 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 10 home starts. This is a very generous price for him at home, and we'll take advantage. The Mets are 14-2 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Mets are 21-10 in DeGrom's last 31 home starts.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are becoming a bit of a pest as they continue to score lots of runs and receiver better pitching. Such as the last two efforts by Tuesday starter Kyle Gibson, who has allowed just 3 runs over 14 IP vs. the Bosox and Orioles as Minnesota has won his last two starts. No knocks on the Tribe's Carlos Carrasco, but the price appears too good to overlook on Gibson and the Twins.
Jesse Schule
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels
The Angels have won eight of their last 10 home games, and they host Oakland in Game 1 of a new series Tuesday night. Sean Manaea will toe the slab for Oakland, and he’s been rocked on the road in his rookie season. Manaea (3-5, 4.57 ERA) allowed three runs on 11 hits over 6 2/3 innings in no decision versus Texas his last time out. He’s 0-3 with a 6.99 ERA in five road starts this year. The Halos hand the ball to Matt Shoemaker, who has some Jekyll and Hyde split stats. While he’s 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA on the road, his ERA at home is a respectable 3.23. His last home start was a masterpiece, as he struck out a baker’s dozen in a complete game shutout win over the White Sox. In fact he’s tossed 23 scoreless innings in his last three home starts, striking out 30 batters in those games. Shoemaker has owned Oakland, going 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two previous meetings.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Atlanta Braves, over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now I'm not going to list the scheduled starting pitchers in this game, because I think Atlanta is getting the Bucs at the right time, and will take advantage of their three-game skid. But I am going to explain why I don't mind who is going, and why I won't list them.
So, Mike Foltynewicz is up for the Braves, and he should find a groove easily, since he is in after a win on Wednesday versus the Twins, and the Pirates are playing like crap at the moment. Plus, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.83 ERA at home this year.
Now, I won't list them because I certainly wouldn't mind if flame-throwing Gerrit Cole was scratched from his scheduled start. Why would I?
Look, it's a longshot, but it's a value price at a buck-sixty. Take the Pirates and play them straight action.
3* BRAVES
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Tuesday is the Nationals over the Diamondbacks.
Yes, this is a pricy road lay, but you simply cannot back Arizona right now.
They are a bad team, and after last night's 14-1 loss, the Snakes are just 17-36 now for the season at home! Not only that, but 'Zona is on a 7-23 dip their past 30 games played.
Washington has now won 7 of their last 10 on the road, and tonight's starter Tanner Roark has won 2 of his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.70.
Robbie Ray stands at just 5-10 for the season, and his ERA is nothing special at 4.70.
It shouldn't take too long for the surging Nationals to put the slumping D-Backs to bed tonight.
Go with the Nats.
4* WASHINGTON