Free Picks for Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Lundin
Rockies vs. Royals
Play: Royals -117
The Rockies are on the road again as they visit the Kansas City Royals for the opener of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday night. They're coming off a disappointing 3-4 homestand, and we can note that the Rockies are just 6-21 in their last 27 road games overall and 3-14 in their last 17 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
They will indeed face a southpaw tonight as the Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (7-8, 3.82 ERA). The 28 year old has been solid at home all season, posting a 3.14 ERA through eight starts, and we can note that the Royals are 35-16 in Duffy's last 51 home starts.
The Rockies turn to Jon Gray (5-2, 4.74 ERA). The 25 year old right-hander has a 4-11 mark with a 4.93 ERA in 26 career starts on the road, and he's 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA in seven road starts on the season.
Two motivated teams still fighting to make it to the postseason, but I think the home team has a clear edge in this contest. We've cashed three straight free picks and I'm counting on the Royals to make it four in a row.
Scott Spreitzer
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play; Phillies -121
I'm recommending a play on the Phillies with Aaron Nola over Dan Straily (game 1). Since June 21, the Phils are just 23-30. However, during the same stretch they're 7-4 when Nola toes the starting rubber, which shows just how effective he's been. Nola held 10 straight opponents to 2 runs or less before a rough outing in SFO last time out. I'm more of the belief it was an anomaly and not a sell sign. The fact is, he was cruising along for the most part, before a bad 5th inning. The righthander is back home tonight where the Phils have won each of his last three home starts and five of his last six. Nola has allowed just 5 earned runs, 33 base runners, with 52 strikeouts in those six starts, spanning 42 1/3 IP. That's a smoking-hot, 1.06 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 11.06 K's per 9 IP ratio. Dan Straily has watched his team lose each of his last seven starts and he's receiving little help from his offense. It's hard to imagine he'll get the likely required help tonight. Straily isn't eating up innings, failing to pitch six full in all but one of his last seven starts. The righthander's numbers on the road have not been good since the start of the 2014 campaign and not much has changed this season where his ERA sits north of 4.6. With a potential pitching mismatch on hand, we'll recommend a play on Aaron Nola and the Phillies on Tuesday (game-1).
Stephen Nover
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Under 10½
Kyle Gibson is not a pitcher you'll find me going Under the total with too often. But this is one of those rare exceptions.
The White Sox are 23rd in runs, minus their second-leading home run hitter, Matt Davidson, and the weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 14 mph.
Chicago is in full youth movement. The White Sox are one of the few teams Gibson has a strong history against. Gibson is 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in nine career starts versus the White Sox.
Minnesota is going to be facing the White Sox's prize pitching prospect, Lucas Giolito. This will be Giolito's big league season debut. Giolito received some major league experience last season when he made four starts for the Nationals.
The Twins rank 18th in homers. This was with Miguel Sano, their home run and RBI leader. Sano is out with a shin injury.
It looks like the White Sox have found a dependable closer as Juan Minaya is three-for-three in save opportunities.
Home plate umpire Ben May has had more Unders than Overs during the last three years.
Teddy Davis
Minnesota at Chicago
Play: Chicago +118
The White Sox snapped the Twins winning streak last night by beating them 7-6. I think the Twins will have a hard time bouncing back here especially with Gibson on the mound who doesn't deserve to be favored. He is 6-10 with a 6.05 ERA on the year. He also owns a 5.33 ERA on the road in 9 starts. His recent form isn't any better with a 5.79 ERA his last 3 starts.
Andrew Gold
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Marlins -122
The Marlins are worth a look here in game 2 of the doubleheader here. Miami has been pretty solid as of late winning 7 of their last 9 games. They send out Urena who is a perfect 7-0 on the road this season. He also enters this game in great form with a 2.20 ERA his last 3 starts.
The Phillies counter with Pivetta who has a 6.05 ERA on the season and is just 4-8. His recent form is just terrible with a 10.21 ERA his last three starts.
Chase Diamond
Minnesota at Chicago
Play: Chicago +117
This game features the 64-60 Twins and the 48-75 White Sox. Yesterday both teams played a double header so they will need their starters to go deep today and with Kyle Gibson on the mound for the Twins that is a tall order. Lucas Giolito one of the White Sox prized pitching prospects goes for them he shined in Triple A having a 1.74 ERA over his last 31 innings. White Sox have the better pitcher and are at home and the public is pounding the road team here at a rate of 75% with little movement.
Jesse Schule
Arizona vs. New York
Play: Arizona -146
The D'Backs won 3-2 in extra-inning last night, and I like Arizona in Game 2 of this series in New York. Tommy Milone will toe the slab for the Mets, and he's been hit hard this season. Milone (1-2, 7.91 ERA) was torched for eight runs on seven hits and two walks over 1 1/3 innings in a home loss to the Angels his last time out. He was roughed up in his only start versus Arizona, surrendering five runs on six hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings in a loss. The D'Backs hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, who has won back to back starts. He's tossed 16 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 batters in those games. The southpaw is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts since the All Star break. The Mets have lost five of their last six home games, and six of their last seven overall.
Power Sports
San Diego vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -190
I fully expect the Cardinals to dominate this three-game series (at home) with the lowly Padres. The Redbirds come into it off B2B losses (to Pittsburgh), but this San Diego club has the worst run differential in the sport and their hideous play on the road is a big part of that. Not only are the Padres 22-39 away from home this season, they've been outscored by a whopping 1.7 runs per game! Now trailing the Cubs (who are playing the Reds this week) by 3.5 gms in the NL Central, this is a series where a sweep would be ideal for the Cards.
Lance Lynn will get the start here as he looks to deliver what would be his NINTH consecutive quality start! That's quite the run as he hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start since June! Lynn has a 2.70 career ERA vs. San Diego (five starts) and this particular edition of Padres baseball is especially anemic as I'll note they only managed six runs in four games vs. Washington over the weekend. They are dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage.
San Diego counters Lynn w/ Clayton Richard, who comes off his best start of the season, a CG shutout of the Phillies last Wednesday. However, that performance is not indicative of the way Richard has pitched for most of the season, at least on the road where he's 1-5 w/ a 4.70 ERA and 1.551 WHIP. It doesn't help that the Padres' bullpen has a 5.31 ERA on the road either. The Cards took six of the seven H2H meetings last year and I expect similar results this week.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Angels
Pick: Over
This is a good park to hit in and Texas brings a Top 8 offense into town. They will need to score runs as Tyson Ross (7.02 ERA) is on the mound, walking 31 batters in 42 innings with 31 Ks. He just faced the White Sox and allowed 5 runs in 4+ innings with 6 walks...and they won, 9-8! The Over is 3-1-1 when the LA Angels face the American League West. Ricky Nolasco (5.16 ERA) goes for the Angels, giving up 31 homers in 139 innings. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Jeff Benton
Tuesday freebie is the Under in the Marlins-Phillies first game of two from Citizens Bank Ball Park.
Miami has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the posted price, and they will go with Dan Straily in the first of two today. Straily has allowed no more than 3 runs in any of his last 4 starts, although he did surrender 4 to the Phils back on July 19th in a game that played Over the total.
Aaron Nola had his worst start in a long time last time out, as he allowed 5 to the Giants in San Francisco. Prior to that start, Nola had allowed 2 runs or less in 10 straight starts.
With the prospect of it being a long night tonight, look for the first game to be a little bit quicker paced and see the pitchers roll through the line up.
Under in Game One.
2* MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA UNDER - GAME 1
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -153
Chicago scored 3-runs in the bottom of the 10th on Sunday to win 6-5 and finish off a 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays. The Cubs have won 6 of 8 overall and I look for them to keep it rolling in the series opener against the Reds on Tuesday. Chicago got a much-needed day off yesterday and are a strong 8-2 in their last 10 after an off day.
Cubs will send out John Lackey, who might be their worst starter, but he's still a strong option for a No. 5 starter. Lackey has 10-wins on the season and has been much better of late. He's got a 3.31 ERA in his last 3 starts and has gone 7 straight outings allowing 3 runs or less (all 7 have been Cubs wins). Reds counter here with Homer Bailey, who is 4-6 with a 8.44 ERA and 2.043 WHIP in 11 starts. He's made 4 home starts and has a miserable 14.33 ERA and 2.572 WHIP (Reds 0-4). His last outing was at the Cubs, where he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks.
It's also worth noting that in the Reds last game they managed just 1 runs in a 7-run loss to the Braves. Cincinnati is a mere 1-11 this season after scoring 1 run or fewer in their last game. Reds are also 4-12 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 3-11 in Bailey's last 14 starts against a division opponent. Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Rocketman
Rockies vs. Royals
Play: Royals -125
The Colorado Rockies travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Tuesday night. Colorado is 68-56 SU overall this year while Kansas City comes in with a 62-61 SU overall record on the season. Jon Gray is 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA on the road this year. Danny Duffy is 7-8 with a 3.82 ERA overall this year and 3-4 with a 3.14 ERA at home this season. Kansas City is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Colorado is 312-429 last 741 games on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Kansas City is 141-109 last 3 years after a win. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
Brandon Lee
Rockies vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
The UNDER is worth a look in Tuesday's interleague showdown between the Rockies and Royals. Colorado is no where close to the offensive juggernaut they are at home on the road and I look for them to struggle to get much of anything going against KC's Danny Duffy, who has a 3.14 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 8 home starts. Rockies will send out Jon Gray, who is starting to regain his form. Gray has a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and has now gone 5 straight starts where he's allowed 3 runs or less. UNDER is 20-7 in Duffy's last 27 home starts against at team that strikeouts out 7 or more times/game in the 2nd half of the season. It's also 32-19 in the Rockies last 51 after a loss and 22-11 in their last 33 against a left-handed starter.
Scott Rickenbach
Yankees vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers +160
The Tigers Matt Boyd struggled some in his most recent home start but prior to that he delivered a quality outing against one of the majors best teams (Houston) in his previous start at Comerica Park. The southpaw, before the struggles against the Twins in his most recent outing, had in fact produced 4 quality starts in his 6 prior home starts this season. In those 4 outings Boyd allowed a total of only 9 earned runs in 28 innings of work! That equates to a stellar 2.89 ERA and I am looking for more of the same here versus the Yankees. The Tigers are 5-2 in Boyd's last 7 starts overall and Detroit offers great value here as a sizable home dog. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees and, not only is he returning from shoulder inflammation, he is 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA in his 4 starts versus Detroit in his career. Also, Tanaka is 3-5 with an ugly 5.80 ERA in his road starts this season. The Yankees have a losing record versus southpaws this season. The Tigers are 29-21 (+$8,700) the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing after a day off. The Yankees are 21-27 (-$13,200) the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing after a day off and they wrapped up a huge series with the rival Red Sox Sunday.