SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +114 over Minnesota
Lucas Giolito went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 21 innings for the Nationals last year before being traded to the South Side in the Adam Eaton deal. This top prospect was indeed knocked around in his MLB cameo. In minors work, however, Giolito showed good progress: fared a lot better in late-season AAA stint (9.6 K’s/9, 3.11 xERA) than in earlier-season AA work. Lucas Giolito was Washington's former #1 prospect, with a high rating that features a fastball/curve/changeup mix that has at times dominated minor league hitters. He has the size, stuff and demeanor to pitch well for a long time but ran into command struggles upon reaching the majors in 2016. Giolito changed some of his mechanics while working in the minors this year and the new Giolito is still very, very good. He's just not a dominant stuff guy anymore, showing elite pitchability and getting outs by outsmarting hitters rather than overpowering them. He uses his two breaking balls to change the hitter's eye level, often pitching backward and starting hitters with breaking balls to get to the fastball later in the plate appearance. His fastball-curve-slider combination is major-league quality, with only consistency and command potentially holding him back. Whether or not his changeup will develop enough to get opposite-handed hitters out enough is an open question. There's also a question of whether or not getting his lower half more engaged might lead to more velocity, or if it would undo some of the command gains he's seen. Giolito brings a maturity to the mound that is clearly evident as he works. He works methodically, setting hitters up with purpose pitches to maximize the effectiveness of pitches later in the plate appearance. His margin for error is much lower than it once was but he seems to have bridged that gap with a more cerebral approach. Right now Giolito is a still a good prospect and at 23 years old there's reason to think he can still improve. It also doesn’t hurt our chances that the Twinkies have never seen him before. His fastball tops off at 96 MPH but he can change speeds with four different pitches. How he fairs here is anyone’s guess but he’s worth a bet against Kyle Gibson’s consistently poor performances.
Giolito brings a maturity to the mound that is clearly evident as he works. He works methodically, setting hitters up with purpose pitches to maximize the effectiveness of pitches later in the plate appearance. His margin for error is much lower than it once was but he seems to have bridged that gap with a more cerebral approach. Right now Giolito is a still a good prospect and at 23 years old there's reason to think he can still improve. It also doesn’t hurt our chances that the Twinkies have never seen him before. His fastball tops off at 96 MPH but he can change speeds with four different pitches. How he fairs here is anyone’s guess but he’s worth a bet against Kyle Gibson’s consistently poor performances.
Gibson has made 21 agonizing starts for Paul Molitor. Of those 21 starts, four were worthy of mentioning while the rest were all struggles that led to crooked innings. On May 5, Gibson earned his ticket to Rochester after going 0-4 with an 8.20 ERA (6.16 xERA) and 1.97 WHIP in 26 innings to start the season. When the Twins acquired Jaime Garcia, they sent Gibson to Triple-A Rochester again. Minnesota flipped Garcia to the Yankees after just one start so the Twins opted to bring Gibson back. Gibson has been unimpressive in the bigs, logging a 6.08 ERA (6.18 xERA). In 109 frames overall, he has a vile BB/K split of 50/75. Gibson has never been able to impress at this level and the only reason that he still has a job in the Twins starting rotation is because Phil Hughes is on the DL and because Frank Viola is 57-years-old. Kyle Gibson is not worthy of being road chalk on his best day against the worst pitcher in baseball but here he is a road favorite against a top prospect with tons of upside.
San Diego +165 over ST. LOUIS
Clayton Richard is another veteran pitcher who can provide value in small doses. Few starters are more successful against lefties than Richard is (1.93 ERA), and that mark has been backed up by an elite 2.67 xERA. He's much more mediocre than good against righties and the Cardinals will send up mostly right-handed bats but with three left-handed bats in the line-up, Clayton may be able to work out of whatever trouble he gets himself into. Richard still has 111 K’s in 153 frames to go along with a 57% groundball rate and we’ll live with whatever result he delivers here because this bet is all about fading Lance Lynn.
Lynn has a 3.05 ERA this year after 25 starts. He also has a 2.62 ERA at home after 11 starts. Over his last three starts, Lynn is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.00. All of that looks sweet on paper and so this market is going to pay dearly to back Lynn’s surface stats but we promise you that ALL OF IT, the overall ERA, the home ERA and his ERA over his last three starts, is all a massive fluke. Lance Lynn has been riding a wave of extreme good fortune this entire season and at some point it’s going to catch up to him. Lynn’s swing and miss rate since the beginning of July is 5%. His first-pitch strike rate this year is 51%. Over his last five starts covering 30 innings, Lynn has walked 18, struck out 19 and posted a WHIP of 2.10. His 2.10 WHIP over those last five games is actually higher than his 1.93 ERA over that same stretch, which is completely absurd. A 2.10 WHIP does not equate to a 1.93 ERA. Lynn comes in with the highest strand rate in MLB at 86.4%. He also comes in with the lowest BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) among all starters today at .234. His xERA since the beginning of July is 6.22 and yet here he is, priced like he’s pitching like Carlos Martinez when in fact, he’s pitching more like Matt Cain. Lance Lynn is MLB’s luckiest and most overpriced pitcher and we’re really hoping that the world finds out just how bad he truly is here.
ATLANTA +100 over Seattle
Marco Gonzales faces a Braves lineup today that has a .768 OPS versus left-handed pitching this season. That is good for eighth in MLB. Gonzales has made four starts this season and has thrown a disaster in three of those, while not lasting more than 4.1 innings in any of them. In 16 innings, Gonzales has walked just two batters but he’s only struck out eight. His 1.75 WHIP does not play well anywhere and his 8.44 ERA is fully supported by his 6.61 xERA. Of course all of this is a small sample size but that doesn’t mean we should ignore it. Originally drafted St. Louis, Gonzales shot through the Cardinals system after being drafted in the first round in 2013, reaching the majors the following season, and then succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2015. He’s worked as both a starter and out of the bullpen but his splits or skills don't indicate hidden value in either role right now. The recommendation is to decline his next RSVP, which is exactly what we’re doing here. Marco Gonzales has done nothing but get ripped apart at this level.
Needing another starting pitcher, the Braves called up 22-year-old Lucas Sims to make his major league debut on August 1 against the Dodgers of all teams. Talk about a difficult assignment to make your debut in! Sims is a prospect who has seen his reputation fade as he reached the upper minor leagues. The 6'2", 220-pound right-hander was highly touted a couple of years ago but his inconsistency and control problems caused him trouble with Double-A and Triple-A batters. Sims has talent, with a 96-mph fastball that is plus, as well as a great 12-6 curve that ranks among the best in the organization. His changeup is inconsistent, showing great fade when he controls it, but losing that control at times and leading to high walk rates and WHIPs.
In that aforementioned debut against the Dodgers, Sims went six full and surrendered six hits and three runs. At least 90% of the pitchers in this league would take that pitching line against the Dodgers. In his last start, at Colorado, Sims went five full and allowed just five hits and two runs. In between those two starts, he faced a couple more hot-hitting teams in the Cardinals and Marlins and hasn’t looked out of place. The surface stats aren’t great and neither are the underlying metrics but Sims has hung in there and battled and he certainly looks like he belongs. Sims is undeniably talented while his counterpart has shown nothing after being off for nearly two full years. Thus far, one of these starters is MLB ready while the other is not. We’ll get behind the one that is.t. He does have a four-pitch arsenal but he also had a 5.11 ERA through 15 Triple-A starts in 2017 and had been nothing short of a disappointment in his first two starts in the majors way back in April before this second call-up. Nevertheless, even if he doesn’t pitch at his best, Stratton should be heavily considered here because he was a high prospect back in 2012 and has a 14% swing and miss rate since he returned. He’ll now face a Brewers team that strikes out more than any team in baseball and that is coming off an intense and very important three-game set in Colorado in which the Crew won on Saturday and Sunday to take two of three. Physically and mentally, it’s a letdown spot for the Brewers and even if it wasn’t, Davies is a good fade when favored on the road.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +103
Pittsburgh suffered a tough loss Monday night when Yasiel Puig homered in the 12th inning. The Pirates have Jameson Taillon on the mound tonight and they have won 13 of his last 16 starts when he has four days of rest. Also, even with last night's win, the Dodgers are just 2-8 their last 10 games at PNC Park. Taillon gave up four runs in five innings against St. Louis on Thursday, but he previously had two quality starts in wins over San Diego and Toronto. Brock Stewart will make his third start for Los Angeles and has yet to record a decision this season. Stewart has allowed nine runs (four earned) his last nine innings. He gave up two runs on three hits in just 1 1/3 innings at Arizona his last appearance on August 10.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers vs. Angels
Play:Rangers +122
The Rangers shook off of a couple of tough losses vs. the Chisox with a crucial win in the series opener at Anaheim. Winners of 9 of 12, Texas looks for more success tonight against Angels starter Ricky Nolasco and his 5.16 ERA. All Jeff Bannister hopes for with starter Tyson Ross is five innings of work and let the bullpen take it the rest of the way.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -102
Milwaukee had won six of seven to climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as the Brewers began a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. Yes, the Giants owned MLB's third-worst record plus MLB's worst moneyline mark but the Brewers had lost nine of their last 10 at AT&T Park. Make that 10 of their last 11, as the Brewers wasted an excellent effort from staff ace Zach Davies (6 IP / 2 unearned runs allowed) by being held to just four singles in a 2-0 loss.The setback dropped Milwaukee 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs (idle on Monday) in the NL Central, as well as 3 1/2 back of Arizona for the second wild-card spot. San Francisco improved to 3-2 on its seven-game homestand but at 51-76 on the season, who really cares.
Jimmy Nelson (9-6, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee against San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija (8-12, 4.79 ERA). Nelson was 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 158 strikeouts in his first 22 starts of the season but he's coming off back-to-back poor outings (that's being kind!), surrendering 15 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts, giving him a 10.80 ERA. Nelson evened his career record against San Francisco at 2-2 on June 7, when he gave up three runs on seven hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory. Samardzija has won four of his last five starts but even after a solid stretch, the Giants are just 11-14, minus-$524 in his 25 starts this season.
Samardzija remains a consistent underachiever but he does seem to be on a little bit of roll, while the 'wheels have come off' for Nelson in his last two starts. There is also the issue of Nelson's 4.22 ERA compared to his 3.39 home ERA. The Giants can only play the role of spoiler the last 1 1/2 months of the season but my bet is that they play that role well, here.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -102
Milwaukee had won six of seven to climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as the Brewers began a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. Yes, the Giants owned MLB's third-worst record plus MLB's worst moneyline mark but the Brewers had lost nine of their last 10 at AT&T Park. Make that 10 of their last 11, as the Brewers wasted an excellent effort from staff ace Zach Davies (6 IP / 2 unearned runs allowed) by being held to just four singles in a 2-0 loss.The setback dropped Milwaukee 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs (idle on Monday) in the NL Central, as well as 3 1/2 back of Arizona for the second wild-card spot. San Francisco improved to 3-2 on its seven-game homestand but at 51-76 on the season, who really cares.
Jimmy Nelson (9-6, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee against San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija (8-12, 4.79 ERA). Nelson was 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 158 strikeouts in his first 22 starts of the season but he's coming off back-to-back poor outings (that's being kind!), surrendering 15 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts, giving him a 10.80 ERA. Nelson evened his career record against San Francisco at 2-2 on June 7, when he gave up three runs on seven hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory. Samardzija has won four of his last five starts but even after a solid stretch, the Giants are just 11-14, minus-$524 in his 25 starts this season.
Samardzija remains a consistent underachiever but he does seem to be on a little bit of roll, while the 'wheels have come off' for Nelson in his last two starts. There is also the issue of Nelson's 4.22 ERA compared to his 3.39 home ERA. The Giants can only play the role of spoiler the last 1 1/2 months of the season but my bet is that they play that role well, here.
Doug Upstone
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -153
Cincinnati knew coming into the season there starting pitching was weak and the bullpen was going to see a lot of work. One of weakest links has been Homer Bailey and he is pitching tonight for the Reds and that this leads to this system. Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like Cincy, with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts. (58-13, 81.7%, L5Y)
Jack Jones
Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Over 8½
The books have set the total too low in this game between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians. These are two of the hotter offenses in baseball. The Red Sox are averaging 6.0 runs per game in their last six, while the Indians have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last eight games overall.
Doug Fister will be facing the Indians for the 3rd time in three weeks. He has given up 7 earned runs and 18 base runners over 12 innings in his two previous starts against them. He is now 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in seven starts this season. The Indians should get on the board against him early and often.
Carlos Carrasco for whatever reason hasn't been as good at home this year, posting a 4.80 ERA across 10 starts at Progressive Field. Carrasco has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.41 ERA and 2.294 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Carrasco is 13-1 OVER in home games vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The OVER is 26-10 in Carrasco's last 26 home starts.
John Martin
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Marlins -111
I like the Miami Marlins in both games of today's double-header against Philadelphia. But I certainly like Game 2 much more than Game 1 because of the pitching matchup in their favor. Jose Urena is quietly having a great season at 11-5 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 20 starts. He is hot of late with a 2.20 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts. Nick Pivetta is 4-8 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 18 starts for the Phillies. He has been rocked recently, going 0-2 with a 10.21 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in his last three starts. Pivetta gave up 3 runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings against the Marlins in his only previous start against them. The Marlins are 6-0 in Urena's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. Miami is 5-0 in Urena's last five road starts.
ASA
Padres vs. Cardinals
Play: Padres +1½
Lance Lynn has had a strong season for the Cardinals but he has walked 16 and struck out just 13 in his last 4 starts combined. With that said, the Cardinals do seem priced awful high here considering they've lost 5 of their last 7 overall. Also, looking at their last 8 games they've only had 1 win by more than a single run. That means, of course, that the Cards at -1.5 runs would be 1-7 their last 8 games and we're grabbing the value here with the Padres on the run line. San Diego has Clayton Richard toeing the rubber in this one and the Padres southpaw is back on track after a rough stretch. Richard has a fantastic 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts and he did not allow a single run in 2 of those outings plus in the other one he helped lead San Diego to a win over the vaunted Dodgers! The only loss for the Padres with Richard on the mound in his last 3 starts came by just a single run and, again that is the added value of having the run line here in this spot. San Diego is available at a very fair small price on the run line at +1.5 runs and the Cardinals are a horrible 4-13 this season - and 21-38 since 2015 - in games following an off day.
Dave Price
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Twins -123
The Minnesota Twins are actually the 2nd wild card in the American League if the season were to end today. They have put themselves in this great position by going 12-4 in their last 16 games. Their offense is on fire as they have scored 43 runs in their past 5 games, including 16 runs in yesterday's double-header against the White Sox, which certainly had to tax Chicago's bullpen. Kyle Gibson enjoys facing the White Sox, going 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts. Prized prospect Lucas Giolito gets the ball for the WHite Sox today. He hasn't been very good at Triple-A Charlotte this year, going 6-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 24 starts. Gibson is a perfect 9-0 against the money line lifetime in road games vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game. The Twins are 15-2 in Gibson's last 17 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Rob Vinciletti
San Antonio at Los Angeles
Play: San Antonio +13.5
The Stars are 8-0 ats as a road dog from +12.5 to 15 and have covered 5 of the last 6 in August or September games. LA Comes in off a win at Chicago where they scored a season high 115 points, so they may be a bit flat here. The Sparks are 3-15 to the spread as a home favorite from -12.5 to -15. We also have a solid WNBA System that applies in this game as we play against home favorites of 7 or more that won and covered on the road and scored 85 or more points in that win. These home favorites have failed to cover 41 of 53 times. Look for the Stars to hang around for a cover tonight.
Buster Sports
Toronto Blue at Tampa Bay
Play: Toronto Blue +175
The Blue Jays come to Tropicana Field tonight for a 3 game series with Tampa Bay. We believe there is tons of value with the Blue Jays tonight. The starting pitchers are for the Jays RH Chris Rowley (1-0, 2.61 ERA) and he will face the Rays RH Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA) These two pitchers faced each other in Toronto less than a week ago, with the Jays winning 5-3. Rowley has pitched well in his first two starts for Toronto and he held the Rays to 2 runs over five innings in his last start. We see a similar outcome for him tonight. As for Archer, he has pitched very well against the Blue Jays this year. However, this will be the fifth time the Jays have seen him this year. Archer did not receive a decision in any of the prior four starts, however Tampa Bay lost all four games. At the time of this writing, Toronto are getting +175 and we believe there is tons of value with the HUGE underdog tonight.
The Prez
New York vs. Detroit
Play:New York -175
The Yanks visit new Tigers Stadium on Tuesday night for the first of a three-game set. First pitch is schedule to take place at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park with the Yankees sending Masahiro Tanaka (8-10, 4.92 ERA) to the hill to oppose the Tigers Matthew Boyd (5-6, 5.70).
The pinstripe crew continue to hold onto their Wild Card slot despite their struggles with finding the win column this month. New York rests atop the Wild Card standings holding a 2.5 game lead over the Minnesota Twins. There is, however, a lot of season remaining and there are eight American League franchises within five games of a postseason (Wild Card) spot with roughly 40 games left to play before the Fall Classic tournament begins.
The Yanks dropped two of three to the Red Sox over the weekend and continue to miss the big bat of rookie Aaron Judge who was 1-for-12 with five strikeouts this past weekend. Judge is batting .169 since the All-Star break and the Yankees are 9-10 overall in the month of August.
It would be a mistake at this point of the 2017 campaign to believe that the current Detroit roster is giving their all for coach and country. The front office were sellers pre-and-post non-waiver trade deadline and the team is 54-68 on the season 15 games out of first place in the AL Central and nine-games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.
There is little to no spoiler left in the aging Tigers roster. Boyd has not been in good form as of late. The Detroit lefty started the 2017 campaign with solid surface numbers has been screaming negative regression for quite some time. His advanced metrics continue to offer evidence of a 5-plus xFIP and poor K:BB ratios and his performance as of late is living up to his underlying peripherals.
Tanaka was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Aug. 9 after reporting arm fatigue. While it has been a roller coaster ride of a season for Tanaka the Yankees right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA over his last nine starts and has recorded at least eight strikeouts in six of his last 11 outings.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -105
It always feels too good to be true when the best team in baseball is even money. Brock Stewart has not pitched this much this season so I see why Vegas put the line where it is at, but the Dodgers just win baseball games. This team has something very special and it would be shocking if they don’t get to the World Series. At this price there is no downside to taking LA.
Bruce Marshall
Washington at Houston
Pick: Washington
This is a pretty big price to give the Nats and Tanner Roark, who is 6-2 on the road and has delivered three straight quality starts. The host Astros have lost in two of Charlie Morton's last three starts, and his control has been an issue lately with 11 walks in his last four outings.