Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, August 23rd, 2016

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati 1st Half

Dan Straily is never going to be mentioned when it comes to the game’s better pitchers. But he’s quietly doing a nice job of hanging tough and giving his team a chance to win, and that’s exactly what the Reds have been doing when he takes the mound. There’s nothing that sticks out among the Straily analytics, which are very average. But Cincinnati has won each of his last seven starts, and they’re 15-8 when he takes the mound this season. Considering the Reds are 38-63 when anyone else goes, that’s a pretty spectacular record.

Derek Holland returns from a rehab stint, and the Rangers are hoping he can relocate some semblance of good form. That’s possibly just wishful thinking. Holland has not been good this season. The K rate is way down, just a little better than five per nine innings, and he’s inducing a career low 36% grounders. That’s not a real good combo, and he could be vulnerable against a Reds lineup that has hit lefties pretty well at home.

The downside for Cincinnati is that terrible bullpen, so as is pretty much an automatic when trying to win a bet with this team, the F5 is clearly the better option. I would figure something in the -110 range on this game.

Sleepyj

Cubs -1.5 -140

I think this price is actually cheap for this game...I can tell you that Freidrich stinks...He will get lit up in this one tonight...Arrieta is coming back strong and this is a complete mismatch...Cubs put up hits and runs yesterday...Padres failed to get the guys who got on base in....Cubs might have a field day with Friedrich...At some point in this game he is going to be in serious trouble...I trust the Cubs to do some serious damage when that happens...I think the ML price here is actually cheap for this contest...Cubs RL...rout.

Rob Vinciletti

Angels vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -147

The Jays are 5-1 at home off a road loss scoring 2 or less runs and LA has lost 4 of 5 on the road off a home win. The Jays fit a solid system that has won 24 of 31 times long term and plays on home favorites off a road dog loss scoring 4 or less runs vs an opponent like LA Tat comes in off a home win scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits. The Angles have lost 14 of 19 ad have T. Skaggs and his 5.71 road era on the mound. He will oppose Dickey who has won his last 3 vs the Angels.

Scott Spreitzer

Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +125

Jon Gray got off to a good start this season but recently has imploded allowing 19 runs (18 earned) and 22 hits his last 12 innings. Colorado's opponents have scored 10 runs in each of his last three starts and the only reason the Rockies won his last outing against Washington was because they scored 12 runs themselves. Gray is 1-2 with a 9.53 ERA in August and Colorado has lost five of Gray's last six road starts. Chase Anderson is back in the rotation after suffering a quad injury and although he has been solid for only about five innings, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since June 28. Colorado hitters have a combined .237 batting average versus Anderson and his home ERA of 3.95 is much better than on the road.

Marc Lawrence

Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -101

Edges - Dodgers: Kenta Maeda 6-1 with 3.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP last seven overall team starts; and 8-3 team starts versus N.L. West. Giants: Madison Bumgarner 0-4 last four team starts in this series. With Maeda in fantastic KW form with 44Ks and 4 BBs in his last seven starts, look for the Dodgers to improve to 7-1 in the last 8 games as a host in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Dodgers.

Matt Josephs

Astros vs. Pirates
Play: Astros -113

Two teams going in different directions play in Pittsburgh as the Pirates host the Astros. Houston has won four straight and is finally hitting like the team we thought they would be. They'll face Ivan Nova who is 8-5 with a 4.79 ERA in 18 starts. Nova was rocked by the Astros last year giving up seven runs and seven hits in four innings. Houston was hitting .260 on the road entering Monday night. The Pirates bullpen is very vulnerable especially with Mark Melancon gone. Joe Musgrove makes his fourth major league start and is coming off his toughest outing. The righty has not been eased into things facing Texas, Toronto and Baltimore. Musgrove has strikeout stuff with 15 in 19.3 innings of work. Pittsburgh has a lot of solid numbers offensively, but they have had problems at times putting it together. Houston's bullpen is solid so I'll back the road team in this one.

Scott Rickenbach

Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9

After falling short with the over in this match-up yesterday (teams combined 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position), I will come right back with it today as my free pick. The Rockies send Jon Gray to the mound and he is winless with a 13.50 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound and he has a 5.29 ERA in his 9 career starts against Colorado and only 3 of those 9 resulted in an under. For the Rockies, the over is 6-2 in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. With Gray on the mound, Colorado has gone over the total in each of his last 3 starts. The over is 32-15 the past 3 seasons combined when the Brewers are a home dog in a price range of up to +125. Milwaukee was on an 8-3 run to the over (and the Rockies on a 7-3 run to the over) before yesterday's 4-2 Brewers win stayed under the total. Look for hot-hitting to resume today as Gray's struggles continue for Colorado and Anderson may not have the 'mental aspect' of his game. The Brewers right-hander was hit on the leg by a line drive in his most recent start and then he struggled in a relief role on Friday. More struggles here.

Jim Feist

Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. San Francisco has great pitching depth and is 5-1-1 under the total on the road. Ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) goes here and the under is 5-2 when he starts on the road. The Dodgers are 17-8 under the total in NL West division play. Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in five of the last seven starts. Maeda threw six innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing just three hits and a walk en route to a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He shut down the Giants in his only other start against them this season (1.29 ERA), plus 5-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers.

David Banks

NY Yankees @ Seattle Mariners
Pick: NY Yankees +130

The Yankees won two of three against the Angels over the weekend and now head west to begin a series with the surging Seattle Mariners. At three games over .500, the Yankees are still just a fourth-place team that is 6.5 games behind AL East leader Toronto. After trading away stars such as Carlos Beltran, the Yankees have not been able to get the kind of production they need from some of their younger prospects.

Outfielder Aaron Hicks is one of those rising prospects who just can’t seem to put it all together. He has performed well in August though going 17-of-59 (.288) with three home runs and six RBIs thus far. Without Beltran, the Yankees do not have much power in the lineup. Shortstop Didi Gregorius bats .285 with 17 homers and 56 RBIs and Starlin Castro and Brian McCann have 15 and 16 homers, respectively.

C.C. Sabathia (7-10) gets the start for the Yankees coming off one of his poorer outings of the season. He gave up nine hits and seven runs to Toronto in a 7-4 loss last week. He will face the likes of Nelson Cruz (.287, 31 HRs), Robinson Cano (.290, 28 HR), and Kyle Seager (.286, 23 HR). The Mariners have won six of their last nine and have been scoring runs by the boatload.

Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 14-8 on the season, will start for Seattle. He has faced the Yankees just once this season way back on April 17. He pitched seven innings and gave up eight hits and four runs in a 4-3 loss. Iwakuma is 3-1 in his last four starts. Pitcher change for Seattle.

Carmine Bianco

Villarreal at AS Monaco
Play: AS Monaco

Today's free play will be on Monaco at home as they'll look to close out this 2 legged tie and earn a CL group stage spot. The 2 way line here is a Pick -109. One stat that is interesting is that over the last 2 years of Champions League final qualifiers home side have only lost 2 of 20 matches played. Monaco have an improved side and did rest players over the weekend in prep for this. I'll lean to the home side.

Oskeim Sports

Philadelphia at Chicago
Play: Chicago -155

Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon takes the mound with a middling 4.26 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.07 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA this season, but he has been hampered by an unsustainable .344 BABIP. I expect that number to regress closer to his career-average of .315, which will translate into better numbers across the board. The 23-year-old has posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a 3.31 FIP in the second half with a 22.8% strikeout rate (8.51 K/9), a 6.9% walk rate (2.59 BB/9) and a significantly improved home run rate (0.74 HR/9 vs. 1.49 HR/9 in first half).

Rodon has also garnered a 2.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 2.37 FIP in 18.0 August innings where he has not given up a home run. Meanwhile, Philadelphia right-hander Jake Thompson was 11-5 with a 2.50 and a 3.79 FIP in Triple-A this season before being recalled (129.2 IP). The 22-year-old also had a 16.8% K% (6.04 K/9), a 7.2% BB% (2.57 BB/9) and a pedestrian 9.7% K-BB% during his time at Triple-A. In three starts for the Phillies, a span covering 14.1 innings, Thompson owns an 8.79 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.43 FIP and a 5.35 xFIP with a 1.88 HR/9 rate.

Chicago also enters this series with a vastly superior bullpen that owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at home and a 2.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in interleague play. In contrast, the Phillies' bullpen owns a 4.55 ERA on the road, a 4.49 ERA at night and a 7.86 ERA over its last seven games. Philadelphia is also averaging just 3.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season (.246 AVG.; .297 OBP; .661 OPS).

From a technical standpoint, Philadelphia is a money-burning 15-36 in its last 51 interleague road games (8-22 L/30 vs. teams with a losing record), including 3-11 in its last fourteen versus left-handed starters (0-4 L/4). With Chicago standing at 7-3 in its last ten home games, take the White Sox and invest with confidence.

Buster Sports

Atlanta at Arizona
Play: Over 9.5

The Diamondbacks and the Braves had a good old slugfest last night at Chase Field and with the starting pitching tonight we see a similar result. The Braves send RH Rob Whalen (1-2, 5.73 ERA) to the hill and he faces the Diamondbacks RH Archie Bradley (4-8, 5.04 ERA) Both these pitchers have struggled in 2016 and tonight will be no different. Whalen in 2 starts on the road this year has a 7.36 ERA with a WHIP of 1.091. It's obvious the rookie has some comfort issues on the road. As for Bradley he has a 6.75 ERA with a WHIP of 1.704 in his last 3 starts. At home in 8 starts he has a 6.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.522. With the Braves scoring 6, 9, 7, and 8 runs respectively in their last 4 games, we see a long night for Bradley. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 14-3 in the Diamondbacks last 17 games following a win and the fact that the OVER is 10-1 in the Braves last 11 overall.

Rocketman

Texas @ Cincinnati
Play: Texas -115

The Texas Rangers travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds on Tuesday night. Texas is 73-52 SU overall this year while Cincinnati comes in with a 53-71 SU overall record on the season. Texas is allowing only 4.4 runs per game at night this year and 4.4 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Cincinnati is 9-19 against left handed starters this year where they are scoring only 3.7 runs per game. Cincinnati is scoring only 3.2 runs per game in inter-league play where they are 4-11 SU on the season. Cincinnati is allowing 5.4 runs per game overall this year, 5.6 runs per game at night this season and 5.9 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Texas is 38-18 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Texas is 71-47 this year when playing on grass and 54-35 against right handed starters this season. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!

Chase Diamond

Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers

My top dog play tonight has the 60-65 Rockies and the 54-70 Brewers. We hit last night on the Brewers and go for another win with them today. Brewers have won two in a row and the Rockies have lost 6 of their last 10 games and with it hopes of any playoffs. Jon Gray for the Rockies has been getting knocked around big time as of late and Brewers starter Chase Anderson was recently demoted to the Bullpen. I expect him to be playing to stay in the rotation today and to be 100% motivated to get the win and show the team he belongs as a starter for this team as time is running out for him.