Art Aronson
Indians vs. Athletics
Play: Over 7½
Setting the scene: These teams played to a 1-0 affair in the opener of their three game series, but we think all signs point to a higher-scoring slugfest tonight.
Danny Salazar: He’s 11-4 with a 3.57 ERA. Salazar looked poor in his return from the DL on Thursday, walking three batters and giving up three runs in a 34-pitch first inning. He was pulled after the first frame.
Sean Manaea: He’s 4-8 with a 4.73 ERA. The rookie was rocked for five runs off nine hits over six frames in a road loss in Texas on Wednesday. Note that Manaea has struggled in all night games this year, going 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA.
The bottom line: More questions than answers for both of these suspect starters right now, therefore we’re going to highly recommend a look at the OVER in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Royals vs. Marlins
Play: Royals +107
Kansas City is showing great value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Marlins. The Royals have caught fire in August, as they have won 8 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Once thought to be out of the playoff picture, KC is now just 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. Miami has won 3 straight, but it's going to be hard for them to continue to play well down the stretch with all-star slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
The key here is the starting pitching matchup. The Royals will send out Yordano Ventura, who has been throwing like an ace of late. Ventura has a 2.25 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 8 outings. The Marlins will counter with Andrew Cashner, who is trending in the opposite direction. Cashner owns an ugly 7.20 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also just 4-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 14 starts in night games.
Ventura is now 9-1 in his last 10 starts in the month of August and 31-18 in his last 49 starts when listed with a money line of -125 to +125. Royals are also 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 1 or less runs in a win over a division opponent and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Steve Janus
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Braves +111
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ATLANTA) - very bad NL offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more), after a loss by 2 runs or less. This system is 35-13 (73%) against the money line since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Rangers -115
This is a great price to back Texas on the road against the Reds. The Rangers are clearly the better team, as they have 20 more wins on the season and we know we are going to get their best effort here after losing their last two. The Rangers will give the ball to Derek Holland, who will be making his first start since late June. When healthy, he's one of the more underrated starters in the game. He's had plenty of time to get ready for this start with 3 starts in Triple-A. He also gets a great matchup here, as the Reds are only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting a mere .245 as a team against left-handed starters this season. Cincinnati is just 1-14 over the last 2 seasons at home after a game where they allowed 10 or more runs.
Brandon Lee
Cardinals -1½
St Louis is worth a look here on the run line Tuesday against the Mets. The Cardinals come into this game playing great baseball, as they have won 6 of their last 7. During this stretch they are absolutely crushing the baseball, averaging 6.4 runs/game. They are in a great spot to put up another big number against Mets starter Jon Niese, who has a 5.13 ERA in 10 road starts and a 6.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. St Louis counters with Jaime Garcia, who owns a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 13 home starts. In his last 3 home starts, Garcia has allowed just 3 runs on 15 hits in 21 2/3 innings. Garcia has also owned New York, posting a 1.58 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 6 career starts against them.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox +111
The Boston Red Sox have won nine of their last 11 games overall to pull into a first-place tie with the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. They have a lot more to play for right now than the Tampa Bay Rays and should not be underdogs here.
Clay Buchholz hasn't had his best season, but he is coming off one of his best starts of the year. Buchholz allowed just one earned run in six innings at Detroit last time out. The right-hander has tamed the Rays, going 8-7 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 21 career starts against them.
It's safe to say that Chris Archer hasn't had his best season, either. The right-hander is 7-16 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in 26 starts this year. Archer certainly does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 1-9 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.
Archer is 4-16 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Archer is 1-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Red Sox are 5-0 in the last five vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Mike Lundin
Angels vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -145
This looks like a good spot to back the Toronto Blue Jays as they host the Los Angeles Angels for the opener of a three-game set Tuesday night.
The Angels are a miserable 3-14 in their last 17 overall and they hand the ball to the struggling left-hander Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA). Skaggs has conceded 15 runs on 25 hits while covering only 13 2/3 innings over his last three turns, and he's allowed opponents a .302 batting average through five starts on the season.
R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51) takes the ball for Toronto. Dickey tossed five innings of one-run ball in the Bronx his last time out and I think he'll come up with another solid outing tonight.
The Blue Jays are back home following a 3-3 road trip. They're 21-10 in their last 31 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. I like them to bounce back from Sunday's 3-2 loss at Cleveland.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -109
I like the price we are getting with the Detroit Tigers (65-59) over the Minnesota Twins (49-75) today. The Tigers are chasing down a playoff spot and have much more to play for right now. Anibal Sanchez has been dominant in 2 of his last 3 starts. He gave up 1 earned run in 8 innings against the Mets while striking out 10 batters on August 7. He also pitched 7 shutout innings with 8 K's against the Royals on August 17. Now Sanchez gets to face a team he has owned as he's 4-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts vs. Minnesota. Kyle Gibson is 5-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.505 WHIP in 17 starts this year, and 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers are18-3 (+16.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season. The Twins are 0-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line off 2 straight road losses against a division rival this season. The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 11-26 in Gibson's last 37 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 trips to Minnesota.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Rays lost last night, 6-2 to the Red Sox, with their only two runs both coming in the ninth inning (killed my Under play). But I'll call for them to bounce back tonight w/ Chris Archer on the mound. While Archer has actually been one of the WORST starting pitchers to bet on this year (8-18 TSR, -12.4 units), I feel that recent performance overrides that. Over his L3 outings, he's pitched very well (2.79 ERA, 0.931) and that WHIP has actually stayed sub-1.00 over the L7 starts. Actually, his WHIP has been very good over the course of the entire season, at least here at Tropicana Field (1.099).
While the Red Sox have won 9 of 11 and can lay claim to the best run differential in the American League (+120), the Rays are in last place in the division. But their own run differential of -18 reflects that things are not really as bad as their 52-71 record might otherwise indicate. That's actually a 59-win pace based on run differential, so they've drastically underachieved.
Like Archer, Clay Buchholz is not someone who will have done wonders for your 401K this season. He's gone only 2-8 in 15 starts (4-11 TSR), but the difference between he and Archer lie in the other numbers as Buchholz has a 5.95 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. So, I definitely give the edge in starting pitching to the Rays tonight. Also, Boston's offense declines rather noticeably away from Fenway Park. Lastly, having lost four in a row to the Red Sox, Tampa Bay is simply just "due" to breakthrough.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +126 over TORONTO
Tyler Skaggs is now 21 months past his Tommy John surgery. Skaggs has made just five starts this season and his numbers are not pretty (5.19 ERA). However, he does have 27 K’s in 26 innings along with 95 MPH heat with life. He also had a terrific Triple-A rehab stint (39 IP, 53/8 K/BB, 1.60 ERA). He’s getting stronger. Skaggs is a strike thrower with a lot of promise. He does bring risk but not any more than his mound opponent here. Furthermore, the Blue Jays continue to struggle to score runs.
Toronto’s offense is not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .235 over their past 40 games and just .240 over their past 20 games, which is third last in the AL over that span. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .155 batting average (in 103 AB’s) will be in the lineup tonight. That’s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher playing once every five days and taking up a roster spot, Mark Shapiro figured sending Cy Young candidate, Aaron Sanchez to the minors to ride buses for 10 days would be a good idea. Shapiro was an idiot in Cleveland and he’s an even bigger idiot now. Dickey has started 13 games at the Rogers Center this season and Toronto has won two of them. Dickey has lost at home this season to Philadelphia (7-0), San Diego (8-4) the White Sox (10-0) and Tampa Bay twice (6-3 & 7-5) among others. Dickey personally has two wins over his last 14 home starts and while the Blue Jays are always dangerous in their own barn, they almost always lose when Dickey pitches at home. In other words, when R.A. pitches at the Rogers Center, Toronto’s chances of losing are far greater than winning.
CINCINNATI +102 over Texas
Cincinnati’s 18-9 defeat yesterday to the Dodgers sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes them unplayable in the minds of many. Lost in the defeat is the fact that the Reds scored nine times. Cincinnati has scored nine runs or more in three of its last four games and they also have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break.
Dan Straily has struggled against lefties for years, a weakness that has prevented him from sticking as a viable mid-rotation starter until this season. That issue has not been cleared up during his mini-breakout this year. Straily is still struggling versus lefties but Texas is a heavy right-handed lineup with just two batters (Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mozara) hitting left. Straily’s stats (2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and skills show life when he faces RH bats, which comes into play here. Regardless, this wager has nothing to do with backing Straily and everything to do with fading Derek Holland. Holland makes James Shields look like Clayton Kershaw.
Derek Holland pitches today ONLY because the Rangers are paying him 7.4M this season. He’s made just 14 starts this year, which turns out to be $528,000 per start. There is no way they are going to pay him that type of money to sit. They would rather lose a game than do that. After a knee sidelined Holland in 2014, a bum shoulder sidelined him last year. Shoulder inflammation did him in this time. When he pitched this year, he was either bad or terrible 90% of the time (via dominant start/disaster start split %). Bad health and skill inconsistency cements the risk in his profile. Holland’s swing and miss rate this year is 6%. His 36%/42% groundball/fly-ball split isn’t likely to play well at this park. Holland now comes off the DL to make his first appearance in over two months. In his last three appearances, Holland was tagged for 18 hits and 13 runs in 13 innings. Four of those 18 hits left the yard. If the Texas Rangers win here, a distinct possibility indeed, so be it. However, you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in the past decade that is less deserving to be road chalk than Derek Holland.
MIAMI -114 over Kansas City
We are going to wait to pull the trigger here. We absolutely expect this line to move significantly, as the market loads up on the Royals. Therefore, expect it to be close to a pick-em later in the day and that’s is when we will step in. No bets right now but we’ll update it to an official wager later on.
Ahhhh, the Royals. Remember them? Don’t look now but K.C. is just four games out of a Wild Card spot with a lot of baseball still to be played. They are also the hottest team in baseball with nine wins in their past 10 games. Now Andrew Cashner is favored over Yordano Ventura? Ventura has experienced more growth in his skills from April to August than any other starter in MLB. After a horrible April and May due to control issues, Ventura's skills were impactful in June: 7.8 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9, 53% grounders. In July and August, Ventura has stepped it up even more. He threw 68% first-pitch strikes in his past two starts. He has a 3.08/3.47 ERA/xERA over his last six starts with 33 K’s in 38 innings over that span. Ventura is also throwing an average of 97 MPH on the gun. Ventura’s swing and miss rate in his last two starts was elite at 15%. The Royals are extremely popular and now that they’re on fire in late August, they have even more market appeal, especially against Andrew Cashner, a starter with rather ugly numbers. Kansas City is not going unnoticed. Why then, did the odds makers open the Royals up as the dog here? That raises red flags for us and it should for you too.
Andrew Cashner saw his ERA jump from 2.55 in 2014 to 4.34 in 2015, but just as things weren’t as rosy as they seemed in 2014, they weren’t quite as bad as they appeared in 2015. Now he finds himself in August with a 4.92 ERA. Do the underlying metrics offer reason for hope? Cashner’s 2015 strikeout rate uptick has faded, and a subpar swing and miss rate suggests additional shrinkage. Fewer swings and misses on his change-up (2014/2015/2016: 16%/12.2%/4.6%) and reduced usage of his slider, down 11% from 2015, have been key factors. After struggling with the slider early in the year, Cashner has reportedly found a new grip that has paid dividends. Small sample size caveats apply, but Cashner was elite at one point. He throws 94 MPH on the gun and he also has a heavy groundball lean of 54% since joining the Marlins (47% before). Cashner could provide sneaky value down the stretch and this line screams out that Kansas City is very likely the sucker dog play of the day.
Kevin Rogers
Royals at Marlins
Play: Marlins
The Royals have caught fire at the right time, coming off a four-game sweep of the Twins, while sneaking back into the AL Wild Card race. Kansas City travels to Miami for an interleague series as the Marlins are fresh off an impressive road sweep of the Pirates. Yordano Ventura takes the mound for the Royals, as Kansas City is 4-0 in his last four starts, with three of those wins coming on the highway. Two of Ventura's worst starts have come against National League foes, allowing 11 ER in eight innings of losses to the Cardinals and Phillies. Andrew Cashner tries to get on track for the Marlins, as the former Padres' right-hander pitched well heading into the All-Star break. Cashner has performed better when taking the home mound this season with the Padres and Marlins combining for a 6-3 record in his last nine home starts. I'll back the Marlins to end Kansas City's winning streak.
GoodFella
Yankees TT Over 3.5
This is Taj Walker's 1st game back from his stint in the minor leagues. He's had a foot issue that has been bothering him. He's been fairly inconsistent this season & can be prone to high pitch counts and not going deep into ballgames. The Mariners top bullpen arms have seen a lot of work the last few games. Their stud closer Diaz threw 22 pitches last night, too. This new look Yankees line up has been good & they're still battling for that last wild card spot in the American League. I do expect these Yankees to get to Walker eventually and I also like the fact that the Mariners top bullpen arms have seen a lot of work the last few games. I also like the fact that we have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting our full 9 innings of at-bats. Bottom line for me, is that I really like these Yankees to plate at least 4 runs before this game goes final & I'm on the NYY Team Total going OVER 3.5 runs in this spot.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 108-84 run with free picks: Chicago (-1', -135) at SAN DIEGO.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The league-best Chicago Cubs are in San Diego to start the week, and why not keep with this series with a blowout win over the lowly Padres, who can't compare offensively. Now, I am taking the Cubs on the Run Line because of the pitchers involved, but do believe Chicago's power-packed lineup will be the big difference.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Chicago's .267 road batting average ranks No. 2 in baseball, while it's .258 average ranks 13th in the league. As you can see, this is a team that thrives on the road. Chicago scores a lot of runs, ranking third in the bigs with 636 plated runs on the highway. In contrast, the Padres rank dead last this season with a .238 batting average.
BOTTOM LINE is - The pitchers in this game make it easy for me to take this one, as Chicago's Jake Arrieta should outclass San Diego's Christian Friedrich. Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Arrieta and Friedrich. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
2* CUBS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers, as the National League West rivals meet at Dodger Stadium in a battle for the division. With as close as this race has been, I think the Giants are the team backed into the corner by what many believe is an overachieving Dodgers team.
Forget for a moment Los Angeles' Kenta Maeda has to face a pitcher who has attracted almost as much attention with his hitting as he is with his pitching, Mad Bum is starting to deal once again for the Giants, and will be able to set the tone for this series with a strong showing. Bumgarner, who has 14 career home runs and is tied for third among pitchers in Giants history, has seen success inside Dodger Stadium, sporting an 8-5 record and 2.40 ERA. Over his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA.
Meanwhile, Maeda will be pitching on six days' rest for the third time this season. And that's not necessarily good news for the Dodgers. In three previous outings of six or more days' rest, excluding his first start of the season, the right-handed import from Osaka has a 4.96 ERA, compared to a much lower 3.75 ERA on normal rest.
I'm going to roll with the road team in this one, as the Giants need to come out firing and make a statement to these Dodgers.
2* GIANTS
Brad Wilton
My Tuesday freebie is to look for another Over in the Boston-Tampa Bay series.
Last night's game slipped Over the total by a hook, as Boston has now played 4 of their last 6 games Over the total, while Tampa Bay is on a more pronounced Over run of 14-2 their last 16 games, including each of their last 4.
Clay Buchholz is just 4-9 on the season with an ERA that is rather large at 5.42, and over his last 3 starts it is not much lower at 4.30.
Chris Archer has been pitching much better of late, but he is up against the wrong opponent, as his career mark versus Boston is just 1-9 with a 5.82 ERA.
Last night's game was not a "ringing" Over, but it was Over nonetheless. I see the same result tonight, as both Buchholz and Archer have been throwing the ball much better of late.
Still, I look for the Over to cash in once again between the BoSox and Rays.
3* BOSTON-TAMPA BAY OVER