Free Picks for Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Pittsburgh +190
While it may seem tough to fade Jake Arrieta in this spot, the Cubs are actually 0-3 in his 3 starts versus the Pirates this season. Arrieta has compiled a 4.50 ERA in those 3 starts while allowing 4 homers in just 16 innings of work. The Pirates got the win in Chad Kuhl's only start at Wrigley Field this season though it was a short outing for the right-hander. Opponents hit only .233 against Kuhl in July and are hitting just .229 against him in August. That said, this is a great big dog value spot. Before the Cubs smashed the Pirates 6-1 yesterday, Chicago had lost 3 of their last 4 games. Even with the big win yesterday, the Cubs are only 50-50 (-$27,100) versus right-handed starters this season! Take a shot with the big dog here as they look to drop the Cubs to 0-4 in Arrieta's starts versus the Pirates this season.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. Royals
Play: Under 9½
The Royals were shutout for a 4th consecutive game and figure to have a hard time breaking out of that slump here against Rays starter Alex Cobb. He's pitched well in each of his last 2 outings and has given up 3 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 starts. Key here is that KC should be able to keep Tampa Bay from putting up another big number. The Royals send out Jake Junis, who has been dealing of late, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 32-16 in KC's last 48 when revenging a home loss as a favorite and 14-3 in Cobb's last 17 starts in the month of August.
Cappers Club
White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Twins -1½
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox face off on Tuesday night, and with the Twins rolling coming into this game, they should win this game big.
On the mound for the Twins is Ervin Santana who was really good in his last start against the White Sox. He went seven innings and gave up three hits and one earned run.
He is facing a White Sox offense that has issues scoring runs and I think that will be the case in this game again.
The Twins bats are hot and that will continue in this game. I think they will get to James Shield early and often and cruise to a victory.
Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +113
Arizona has absolutely clobbered left-handed starters at home this season, posting an 11-3 record, while averaging 6.56 rpg. Rich Hill is 0-2 in his last three starts against the D-backs, including a very ugly performance at Chase Field a season ago. While there was some debate over whether or not Hill should have taken the mound in the 10th inning last time out, there is no debate that in all likelihood, at least 50 of his 99 pitches were highly stressful as he flirted with both a perfect game and a no-hitter. Arizona is back on track, winning four straight games and we expect the offense to give Godley enough support to win this game. Godley has nice numbers against the Dodgers and he has allowed just 51 base runners in 50 1/3 IP at home this season, along with a .174 BAA. We also note he has 40 strikeouts in his last 35 1/3 IP. Godley's numbers at night are phenomenal this season and we expect more of the same in this one. Besides the 4-0 overall run and the 11-3 mark at home against southpaws, the D-backs are also on a 4-0 run against lefties and they're 5-1 in Godley's last six against teams with a winning record.
Tennis Insiders
Leonardo Mayer vs. Richard Gasquet
Play: Leonardo Mayer +299
Richard Gasquet has been carrying injuries since Roland Garros, and he's just 2-3 since Wimbledon, struggling to find his fitness & form. Leonardo Mayer is brimming with confidence, having won an ATP 500 title on the clay in Hamburg back in July, and was fortunate to enter the main draw here as a lucky loser. He certainly has the weapons to hurt Gasquet, and while he can struggle mentally he's no doubt going to get chances to win this match, leaving huge value in the moneyline. Gasquet has struggled with stanima & fatigue his entire career, and if this one goes the distance Mayer will hold the fitness advantage. Take to underdog to record the "upset" on Tuesday morning
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +1.5
The Dodgers are coming off back to back home losses, and they only managed to score a pair of runs in those games. They play Game 1 of a new series at Arizona on Tuesday, and we could see a pitcher's duel in the desert. Rich Hill will toe the slab for the Dodgers, and he's coming off a near no-hitter. He took a perfect game into the ninth inning, then lost the no-hitter in the 10th when the Pirates hit a walk-off home run. Hill has pitched well against Arizona this season, but is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts. The D'Backs hand the ball to Zack Godley, who is coming off three straight losses. He hasn't pitched that bad, allowing eight earned runs over 16 innings in those games. He also struck out 23 batters, but his team managed to give him a total of just seven runs in his last three starts. Godley's last win came against the Dodgers, allowing three runs on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win. Arizona is 5-1 in Godley's last six home starts versus teams with a winning record.
Cajun Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
Play: Tampa Bay +107
The boys from Cigar City took Game One of their three-game set in Kansas City versus the Royals on Monday winning 12 to 0. That loss extended their current losing skid to five games having lost their last two games by a final score of 12 to 0. The Royals entered this home series against the Rays off a three-game set in Cleveland in which they were swept 3 to 0 and the Royals failed to score a single run in any of the three games. The Royals lost Game Three in Cleveland 12 to 0 and repeated that performance and score in Game One last night versus the Rays losing 12 to 0 at home. Our MLB TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.58 runs in favor of the Rays on Tuesday night. A check of our MLB Database reveals several league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. We want to play ON MLB road underdogs coming off a shutout victory in their last game, 529-659 SU (+6094). We want to play ON MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, 610-780 SU (+4484). Play ON MLB teams coming off a game which they held the largest lead in the AL winning by more than one run and their opponent did not score more than seven runs and a current line less than +200, 667-489 SU (+12468). Finally we want to Play ON MLB teams coming off a game which they won by the largest margin in the AL in their last game winning by more than one run and their opponent did not score more than seven runs and a current line less than +200, 700-502 SU (+13899). With our Team Performance Ratings Index projecting the Rays with more than a 1.5 run advantage over the Royals and additional support from several key systems we will back the boys from Cigar City on Tuesday night.
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Colorado
Pick: Over 11
The set-up: Colorado lost 4-3 at home last night to Detroit. Most of the Rockies woes since shortly before the All Star break have come on the road but losing at home to the Tigers, hurts. Detroit had entered the series having lost 16 of their previous 21 and owned the AL's second-worst record. Colorado is now just 11-14 in August and sits two games back of Arizona, which owns the top wild card spit in the National League. The Rockies are three games up on the Brewers for that final wild card spot but with 31 games still left to play, it's not quite time to 'pop' the champagne corks just yet.
The pitching matchup: Michael Fulmer (10-11 & 3.69 ERA) starts for Detroit and rookie German Marquez (10-5 & 4.18 ERA) for Colorado. Speaking of rookies, Fulmer was 2016's AL rookie-of-the-year, going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .231 BAA. His numbers aren't that much worse in 2017 (3.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 3.69 ERA) but he's just 10-11. The biggest difference is that after Detroit went 19-7 (plus-$1292) in his 2016 starts, the Tigers are just 12-12 in Fulmer's starts this season (minus-$115). This marks his first start against the Rockies. Marquez made just six appearances last year (including three starts), throwing only 20 2/3 innings. However, the 22-year-old rookie has made 22 starts in 2017, with the Rockies going 14-8, plus-$675 vs the moneyline, including a sweet 8-2 in his 10 home starts.
The pick: This is not just the first time Fulmer will see the Rockies, it's also his first appearance in Coors Field, where the Rockies average 6.09 RPG. I'm not so sure he'll 'like the view,' As for Marquez, the Rockies may be 8-2 in his 10 Coors Fields starts in 2017 but it's not because he's a 'shut down' pitcher (4.50 home ERA)! Play the Over.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado -138
The Rockies opened a three-game home series against the Tigers last night and lost 4-3. Colorado has struggled in August, going just 11-14 and has fallen two games back of Arizona for the No. 1 wild card spot in the NL. The Rockies also have to be "looking over their shoulders," as the Brewers trail them by just three games. By no means is Colorado 'safe,' as the Rockies still have 31 games remaining. The win for Detroit was just its sixth in its last 22 and at 57-73, are ahead of only the 52-77 White Sox in the American League.
Taking the mound for Detroit will be 2016's AL rookie-of-the-year, Michael Fulmer (10-1 3.69 ERA). He'll be opposed by Colorado's German Marquez (10-5, 4.18 ERA). Fulmer's 3.69 ERA is just a half-run higher than last year's mark (3.06) and he is again allowing fewer hits (142) than innings pitched (158.1). His WHIP (1.14) is about the same as in 2016 (1.12), as is his BAA (.240 in 2017, compared to .231 in 2016). However, the results are nowhere near the same. The Tigers were in 19-7 Fulmer's 2016 starts, giving him MLB's 6th-best moneyline mark (plus-$1292). However, here in 2017, he looks to snap a six-start win-less streak in which he had lost five straight decisions, before taking a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing (Tigers won 10-6). The bottom line is, Detroit is 12-12 in Fulmer's starts this season, leaving him minus-$115 against the moneyline.
The fact that Marquez has allowed five HRs in his last two starts, after allowing just 12 over his first 20, is troubling. However, after pitching just 20.2 innings last season (six appearances, including three starts), this 22-year-old rookie has made 22 starts in 2017, with the Rockies going 14-8, plus-$675 vs the moneyline (ranks 12th among all starters). Here in Coors Field, the Rockies are 8-2 in his 10 starts.
Fulmer's had a tough go of it herein 2017 and while Detroit has nothing to play for, the Rockies can 'smell' a wild card berth with just over a month to go in the regular season. The Tigers have allowed an average of 5.45 RPG away from home, while the Rockies are averaging 6.09 RPG at home. I'll play the home team.
Power Sports
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels -155
I was correct in saying that Oakland (fresh off a sweep of Texas) would "cool off" in LA Monday. They lost, 3-1, and for the Angels this remains a very important series as they try and catch Minnesota for the elusive 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. The Halos are only two back of the Twins in the loss column (same number of wins) and need to build off last night's success as the Twins are hosting Chicago this week, which means it will be difficult to make up ground. Thankfully, Oakland and its lousy 21-42 road record should help oblige.
Mike Trout sat out last night, but should be back in the lineup Tuesday. I certainly expect him to start improving upon his recent performance at the plate as he's 0 for his last 17, just one AB short of the longest hitless streak of his entire career! Maybe facing Oakland's Chad Smith will help. Smith because the oldest pitcher in A's franchise history to make his first career start, doing so at age 36 last month. He's still yet to win in seven tries and almost appears to be regressing as he's gone out four straight times w/o delivering a quality start. His strikeout numbers are very unimpressive and he's given up at least one HR in all but one of the seven starts.
Smith shouldn't expect much run support here either as Oakland doesn't even average 4.0 rpg on the road. They're one of the worst road teams in baseball in fact, currently being outscored by 1.3 rpg. The bullpen is bad, the offense is bad and they have a 36-year old journeyman starter on the mound. Meanwhile, the Angels turn to Troy Scribner, who has a 0.929 WHIP in three big league starts. Oakland managed only four hits yday and struck out 14 times. I look for a repeat of yesterday's result here.
Jim Feist
White Sox at Twins
Pick: Under
This is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a bad Chicago offense is in town. Chicago is on a 6-0 run under the total and faces Ervin Santana (13-7, 3.24 ERA). he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of the last 5 starts. Minnesota is 23-9-2 i under the total after a victory and 19-9-2 under when Santana starts. The Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings and this shapes up as another pitcher's duel.
Mike Lundin
Detroit vs. Colorado
Pick:Colorado -138
The Colorado Rockies dropped the opener of this three-game series with the Detroit Tigers 4-3 on Monday. The Tigers are still just 2-9 in their last 11 road games while the Rockies have one of the best home records in baseball, and this looks like a fair price on the home team to bounce back with a win.
Colorado hands the ball to German Marquez (10-5, 4.18 ERA). The Rockies are 8-0 in the right-handers' last eight home starts and he's 6-0 with a 3.12 ERA in those games.
Michael Fulmer (10-11, 3.69 ERA) will take the ball for the Tigers. The 24 year old right-hander has taken the loss in each of his last three turns on the road, giving up 20 runs (16 earned) on 21 hits in just 13 2/3 frames in the process. He's 1-5 with a 5.06 ERA in seven starts overall since the All Star break.
The Tigers are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings at Colorado, and think the Rockies will give Fulmer a really hard time here in his first career start at Coors Field while Marquez knows what it's all about already.
Jesse Schule
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +1.5
The Dodgers are coming off back to back home losses, and they only managed to score a pair of runs in those games. They play Game 1 of a new series at Arizona on Tuesday, and we could see a pitcher's duel in the desert.
Rich Hill will toe the slab for the Dodgers, and he's coming off a near no-hitter. He took a perfect game into the ninth inning, then lost the no-hitter in the 10th when the Pirates hit a walk-off home run. Hill has pitched well against Arizona this season, but is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Zack Godley, who is coming off three straight losses. He hasn't pitched that bad, allowing eight earned runs over 16 innings in those games. He also struck out 23 batters, but his team managed to give him a total of just seven runs in his last three starts. Godley's last win came against the Dodgers, allowing three runs on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win.
Arizona is 5-1 in Godley's last six home starts versus teams with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +107 over SAN DIEGO
The Giants shut out the Padres last night and so we’re going to come right back on them again tonight, as this is a good matchup for Matt Moore against the Padres hitters and a bad matchup for San Diego’s tiring starter, Luis Perdomo against the Giants’ bats.
Matt Moore is pitching as well now as at any point in time this season, as he has a 19/6 K/BB over his last three starts. Moore also has 30 K’s over his last 31 frames to go along with a 3.73 xERA. He’ll now face a struggling Padres’ nine that scuffles against left-handed pitching with a .222 BA and .658 OPS.
Luis Perdomo had made three starts versus the Giants this season with two of those resulting in disasters. He has been hit hard in four of his last five starts with a 38% hard-hit ball % over that span. Perdomo he has not been good at Petco either, going 4-3 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Perdomo is showing all the signs of fatigue. He’s walking more batters, striking out less with both his first-pitch strike rate and swinging strikes being in rapid decline. Matt Moore holds some sneaky value here and we’re on it.
Detroit -1½ +230 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
21-35 + 23.15 units
St. Louis -1½ +133 over MILWAUKEE
Of the roughly 150 starters in MLB that will take the hill over the next five days, Matt Garza might be the 150th starter on that list worth getting behind in an evenly priced game against Luke Weaver and the Cardinals. The opposing Cardinals have a .288 BA and .858 OPS in August (first overall in MLB over the past 20 games) while averaging 5.8 runs per game. Garza’s two starts against the Cards this season have resulted in two disasters. Over his last eight starts, Garza is 3-3 but should be 0-8 with a 5.18 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.21 xERA and zero redeeming skills.
Luke Weaver is so underpriced today so get in early on this one before the line increases. Weaver has only made three starts on the season, but he has been impressive in that small sample size. His last start was a dominant one in which he struck out 10 and back on August 2 he threw a beauty against the Brewers. In 23 innings, he is holding left-handed batters to a .121 BA and .407 OPS. He also has 26 K’s in those 23 innings. This is a quality prospect coming off two great minor league seasons. A buying opportunity awaits.
ARIZONA +113 over Los Angeles
Rich Hill is coming off that well-documented, fantastic start where he went nine innings, struck out 10, and only allowed one hit, a 10th inning solo shot to lose it. Rich Hill has been terrific this season with a 3.32/3.78 ERA/xERA split, not to mention 40 walks and 122 K’s in 103 innings. We’re not going to take anything away from Hill but this start comes after that emotional 10-inning loss in which he threw a no-hitter but didn’t. Furthermore, Hill has had the good fortune of throwing more games at pitcher’s parks than any starter in baseball. Check out his last 12 starts: six at Dodger Stadium, two at Citi Field (NYM), and one start each at Petco Park (SD), Marlins Park, PNC Park (Pitt) and finally Comerica Park in Detroit. That’s zero games in hitter’s parks over Rich Hill’s last 12 starts. In his 19 starts this season, 17 have been in pitcher’s parks. The only two starts in hitter’s parks came at Miller Park in Milwaukee and at Progressive Field in Cleveland. In Milwaukee, Hill walked four and was tagged for three runs in four innings (97 pitches) and in Cleveland, he was tagged for seven runs in four innings also. That’s a combined 10 runs in eight frames in his only two starts at hitters parks this season. Again, coming off that mentally draining start, Hill will now pitch in a hitter’s park for the third time this year against a Diamondbacks lineup that has been potent at home by averaging 5½ runs per game with a .830 OPS.
There’s no way around the fact that Zack Godley was bad last year. He spent time in Double A and Triple A before getting the call and bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. He wasn’t effective in either role, carrying a 6.39 ERA with a similarly bloated 1.49 WHIP in 74.2 innings. Godley had a supremely difficult time finding the plate, as his 39.6% zone rate would have been third lowest in the league (he didn’t have enough innings to qualify). Finally, Godley could not figure out lefties to save his life, and got lit up to the tune of .281/.373/.519. Then something happened.
For Zack Godley, the proverbial switch was flipped. A light came down from above and Godley ascended into big-league pitcher paradise. Through 19 starts, he’s been lights out en route to a sparkling 3.15 ERA, which is a team best. He’s even managed to strike 124 batters over 117 frames while riding a 15% swinging-strike rate which is the 8th best in baseball for pitchers logging at least 80 innings. His .215 BAA against ranks fourth best in the league behind only Max Scherzer, Alex Wood and Chris Sale. So, what happened? Godley has made significant changes to his pitch mix and zone profile. His reliance on a cutter has decreased each season, and the 21.2 percent usage rate in 2017 is down over 20 percentage points from his 2016 profile. Instead, Godley has leaned on his curveball, a pitch that he throws about 29 percent of the time and gets nearly 25% whiffs, along with the crown jewel of his new and improved arsenal, the sinker. A year ago, Godley threw the pitch in nearly a quarter of his offerings. This season he has increased that number to over 37% and has been rewarded with groundballs in nearly 70% of batted balls. The increased sinker usage also has helped Godley keep the ball in the yard. The pitch has yielded a 0.64 percent home run rate this season, helping him to fend off the growing trend of long balls in the game. Godley even has fared better against left-handed hitting this season, again increasing sinker usage at the expense of his cutter. Righties have had no shot against Godley all season. The elite groundball and swinging strike rates make for a deadly combination that should provide a solid baseline and help Godley avoid disaster outings. He’ll now face a Dodgers lineup that everyone thinks is killing it but they’re not. Over the past 20 games, L.A. is batting a combined .238, which ranks 24th out of 30 teams. Godley a dog at home is outstanding value and we’re not going to miss it.