Free Picks for Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Rockies vs. Indians
Play: Under 8
Two pitchers in excellent form coupled with a total that has moved up from a 7.5 to an 8 is offering excellent line value here with the under. The Rockies are averaging only 4.3 runs per game over their last 7 games even though most of those have been at home at hitter-friendly Coors Field. As for the Indians, they've been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 7 games and this could be another one of those types of games tonight. The Indians are facing German Marquez for the first time and the Rockies are 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has held batters to a .230 batting average in those outings while also piling up the strikeouts. Overall the Rockies are 12-3 in the last 15 starts that Marquez has made and he has allowed just 12 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Corey Kluber has also been in top form for the Tribe as the right-hander has struck out at least 8 batters in 12 straight starts. Also, he's has tallied double digits in strikeouts in 10 of those 12 outings. Incredibly, Kluber's last 10 starts have featured 8 where he threw at least 7 innings while allowing no more than 5 hits. Complete dominance and the other key to this match-up favoring both pitchers is that these lineups will feature hitters who have little to no experience against the fire-balling hurlers they are facing today. Also, the under is 25-14 this season in Rockies games against teams with a winning record. The under is 22-15 in Indians games against teams with a winning record this season.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +114
Arizona is worth a look here as a home dog against the Dodgers. I know LA is the best team in the league, but this Diamondbacks team is extremely difficult to beat at home, where they are 36-18 on the season. Arizona also sends out one of the more under the radar starters in Zack Godley, who has a 2.86 ERA in 15 starts and comes in red-hot with a 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts. Godley didn't allow a run in his last 2 outings, which were at St Louis and Chicago. He's faced the Dodgers once this season and held them to 1 run over 5 2/3 innings. LA sends out Kenta Maeda, who has a 1.06 ERA in his last 3 starts, but has faced a favorable schedule during this stretch. Maeda still has a 4.74 ERA in 9 road starts and a 4.47 ERA in 8 career starts against Arizona. In his two starts against them this year, he's allowed 10 runs on 13 hits (5 HRs) in just 9 innings of work.
Darryl Tucholski
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Boston -200
Sale was hammered for 7 runs in his last start. However, Sale has not allowed more than 1 ER in back to back starts in his last 10 starts. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9½
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that runs could be at a premium tonight.
Kenta Maeda: He’s 10-4 with a 3.79 ERA. Maeda comes in off a gem against the Braves on Tuesday, going seven scoreless with six K’s. Over his last six outings he’s gone 5-1 with a tiny 2.20 ERA. With Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy both on the DL, Maeda’s recent form will keep him in the starting rotation for now.
Zack Godley: He’s 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA. Godley most recently gave up three hits and two walks over six scoreless frames while striking out five in a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. Godley has now posted 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts and note that he’s been particularly effective at home this season by going 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA.
The bottom line: All signs point to a classic “pitchers duel” between these NL foes on Tuesday night.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees +109
Edges - NY Yankees: Sabathia 9-1 vs AL East opponents this season; and 2.29 ERA away as opposed to 5.68 ERA home this season… Blue Jays: Happ 1-7 at night, and 1-4 vs AL East this season. With Toronto just 10-17 against left-handers, and 17-27 against the A.L. East this season, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Teddy Davis
Brewers vs. Twins
Play: Over 10
The total pushed here last night at 9 between these two teams and that was with a lot better pitchers on both sides. Now the Twins send out Mejia the lefty who has struggled at home with a 5.20 ERA. He has made it 5 innings once in the past 3 games and that is because of his command issues having 7 walks in that 3 game stretch in only 13 innings of work.
The Brewers will send out Garza who is in good form, but with 2 of those games against the Phillies I'm not looking much into those games. The key here is that the Brewers really have good success swinging the bats against left handed pitching scoring 5.5 runs a game.
Andrew Gold
Mariners vs. A's
Play: Over 9
This won't be a total that jumps off the page to anyone as neither team is known for a great offense. Well, the A's have really started to heat up averaging 6 runs a game over their last 7. Now they catch Miranda who they have already had success against this year.
The A's counter with Graveman and while he does have decent numbers at home in just 4 games I think they are a little off. He is coming off a brutal outing vs the Giants only lasting 2 innings. In his last 3 games he has gave up 23 hits in just 14 innings. Need less to say his ERA during those 3 games is 7.98.
Jimmy Boyd
Padres vs. Reds
Play: Reds -137
This might seem like a big number to be laying on the Reds, but I like the value with Cincinnati in this spot at home against the Padres. San Diego is an awful road team, come in 1-4 over their last 5 and have no incentive here. More than anything, I'm looking to fade Padres starter Luis Perdomo, who is 1-4 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in 8 road starts this season (1-7 team record). Not to mention Perdomo comes in having allowed 9 runs on 16 hits and 4 walks over his last 2 starts against some mediocre offenses in the Twins and Mets.
Cincinnati put up 11 runs in yesterday's 8-run win and should be able to score a bunch in this one. While the offense continues to roll, Reds starter Sal Romano should be able to keep a strugling Padres offense in check. Romano has been throwing well of late, as he owns a 2.87 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Reds are 14-5 in their 19 home games this season against a team that has a batting average of .250 or worse (Padres .235).
Big Al
Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Washington Nationals are very good right now, but it's scary to think how good they would be if they were healthy. The Nats are literally one of the most injured teams in the league right now, especially on the pitching front. Ace Max Scherzer came back last night from a sore neck and pitched well in a winning effort, but #5 Joe Ross underwent season-ending surgery and Stephen Strasburg is still on the shelf with elbow issues. All that means is that starts like tonight - from RHP AJ Cole - are all that more important. Cole was a fourth-round draft pick of the Nats in 2010 and although he has yet to fulfill his promise, the 25-year-old has shown some flashes of what the Nats hope he can become. For example, in his first start of the season back on May 6, Cole limited the Phillies to just one run on six hits in six innings for his first (and until now - only) win of 2017. His second start didn't come until last Wednesday, and that one didn't go so well, but tonight will mark Cole's 2017 home debut. And Cole has some extra incentive tonight as he has never beaten the Marlins in three previous starts against them. With their loss last night, the Marlins are now 15-37 in their last 52 games in DC.
Brandon Shively
Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Washington Nationals were shutout by Vance Worley last week. Worley has poor numbers even in the minors in his career, and he isn't a good starting pitcher. I don't think he'll be able to slow one of the best offense in baseball twice in a row. Reality should set in here as the Nationals put quite a few on the board.
A.J. Cole has a much higher upside than does Worley, and he has pitched his best at home. The Nationals bullpen is getting better, and the Marlins have little to play for at this point. Lay the fair price.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Royals
Pick: Under
St. Louis is on a 17-6-4 run under the total with better pitching than offense. Michael Wacha (3.66 ERA) takes the mound throwing well, allowing 1 run or less in five of his last seven starts. Wacha allowed a single run on five hits and three walks while striking out five batters over four innings during Thursday's loss to Milwaukee, 2-1. St. Louis is 37-16-6 under the total against the AL Central division. Kansas City has a hot and cold offense, 7-1 under against losing teams. Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10 ERA) has been great and the under is 20-8 when he starts. And the Under is 10-2-5 in the last 17 meetings.
Power Sports
Orioles at Angels
Pick: Angels
Let's try this again, shall we? The Angels lost to the Orioles yday, 6-2, w/ a 7th inning grand slam being the difference. I happened to give out the Halos in this space and I'll "double down" today as the Orioles may have the better record of the two teams, but it is the Angels that have the better run differential (by a somewhat significant margin). Also, the O's are a really shaky road team. Not only is their record 20-33 away from Camden Yards, but they've been outscored by 1.1 runs per game.
LA turns to Parker Bridwell in this spot and he was kind to me his last time out. Well, to be honest, he did allow four runs in 5 IP. But the offense did bail him out, rallying late to beat the Phillies 5-4. Bridwell still has a sub-1.00 WHIP his L3 starts though and the team has won each of his last five times out. He'd made four consecutive quality starts going into last week and overall, his TSR is 8-1.
Baltimore counters w/ Jeremy Hellickson. He threw seven shutout innings his last time out (vs. KC), but that was at home. I worry about the fact the O's allow 5.6 runs per game on the road. That's tied for the worst average (w/ San Diego and San Francisco) in all of MLB. Two starts ago, Hellickson did give up six runs and here he'll have to contend w/ Mike Trout. This Angels lineup may have scuffled at the plate last night, but they've scored at least five times in 8 of their past 10 games.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -1½ +165 over Milwaukee
We are not one to zigzag between games but there are exceptions to every rule, as nothing is in stone when it comes to sports betting. Yesterday we bet the Brewers and lost so coming back on the Twinkies today would be zig zagging, something we try and avoid but today is a little different.
Adalberto Mejia has done a nice job of keeping his team in games and with his off-speed stuff, he’s been able to keep teams’ off balance and we like his chances to keep the free swinging Brewers off balance here. That said, Mejia is not the target here at all. The target here is to fade Matt Garza and not to stop unless further notice.
Matt Garza is about to blow up in a big way and we’re not going to miss it. More injuries have cost him a chunk out of the first half, not that he was missed. Garza played with his pitch mix and boosted his groundball rate slightly but that's just shuffling deck chairs on a doomed ocean liner. There just aren't any plus offerings in his arsenal anymore. Velocity in multi-year decline, his secondary stuff is increasingly getting tattooed and now it’s going to turn into a bad scene. Here’s the beauty of it all: Garza has a 2.30 ERA over his last three starts covering 16 frames. What that doesn’t tell you is that he’s walked eight and struck out nine over that span for a vile ratio. That shiny ERA also doesn’t reveal that 41% of balls hit were line-drives. Garza’s xERA (6.47) since returning from injury is more than four runs higher than his 2.30 surface ERA. Dude is going to get whacked and we can almost guarantee it’s going to happen at this park against this team. Current Twinkies are hitting .352 against Garza and he’s never been worse than he is right now.
TAMPA BAY +188 over Boston
For years, Chris Sale really never got the recognition he deserved when he was pitching for the South Side but that changed drastically when he switched teams. With two Cy Young winners on their staff, it seemed like overkill when the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale last off-season, but with Rick Porcello falling back to Earth and David Price dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness, Sale’s been the man in Boston and he’s delivered the goods. After 22 starts covering 153 innings, Sale has struck out an off-the charts 216 batters. He has only lost four games too. Chris Sale is as good as advertised but now that he’s the CY Young favorite and pitching for the Red Sox, you are going to pay a MASSIVE premium to back him here. Furthermore, the Rays are strong against lefties, they have seen Sale plenty of times and even scored four runs on him earlier this year. Sale could easily dominate this lineup and if he does and picks up a victory, we can live with that because we know we’re getting a seriously inflated price with a quality team at home with a quality starter going.
Austin Pruitt is a name that is going to get more popular real soon so let’s start at the beginning of this year in spring training. Pruitt had two walks and 18 strikeouts over his first 16 spring training innings. There were 126 pitchers who had thrown at least 15 spring-training innings at that point. By K-BB%, Pruitt ranked 11th, a little ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber. Nate Karns was seventh. Sal Romano was fourth. Taijuan Walker was second. Spring-training innings are spring-training innings but for Pruitt, it didn’t represent anything new. This kid can pitch and he’s major-league ready.
Pruitt doesn’t get by on finesse, but he’s definitely not a power pitcher, by today’s standards. For that reason, he’s never been so much as a Baseball America top-10 prospect within the Rays organization. Pruitt’s one of those guys who succeeds through location. They can be easy to miss, until you see the statistics. Pruitt’s career walk rate is just 4.8%. That’s low. And over the past three years, his strikeout rates have increased from 18% to 19% to 23%. As a full-time starter last season in the International League, Pruitt had 27 walks and 149 strikeouts. This year he has 43 MLB innings under his belt. He has a BB/K split of 11/37. In his last appearance, his third start of the year, Pruitt held the vaunted Astros lineup to five hits and zero runs in 6.1 innings of work. His line-drive rate over his last 11 innings is 6%. In his last two home appearances, Pruitt allowed just three hits over four innings and did not allow a single run. The kid is getting better by the week and he’s also more confident than ever. He has good sequencing, good stuff and it might be another decade before he’s taking back a tag like this one at The Trop. Yeah, Pruitt and the Rays may lose here but give me this kid at this park at this price and it’s a bet we would make 100% of the time.
N.Y. METS -1½ +179 over Texas
Value comes from public perception, popularity and surface stats to create a number that is either too high or too low and we have a great example of that here. By game time, don’t be surprised to see the Rangers favored here so we’re going to wait to pull the trigger until then because there is a chance we’ll get the Mets at an even better price.
On paper, Texas would be the play, as Andrew Cashner is 7-8 with a 3.36 ERA after 18 starts while New York’s Chris Flexen has made just two starts this year and both were beyond ugly. Flexen did not make it out of the third inning in both of his starts, as he was tagged for 13 hits and eight earned runs combined for an ERA of 12.00, a WHIP of 3.00 and an oppBA of .464. The betting public will see the Rangers taking back a price and likely jump all over it, which is likely an unforeseen mistake.
You see, Andrew Cashner is living off of luck this season. In 107 innings, Cashner has a nauseating BB/K split of 43/55. He also has the widest gap between ERA (3.36) and xERA (5.72) among qualified starters. Cashner’s luck extends beyond just Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP). His strand rate of 78% is well above league average. His 7.5% hr/f rate is the lowest among all starters today. His 6% swing and miss rate is the lowest of his career. Cashner has been able to dance around trouble this entire season and if he sustains it again here, so be it but the oddsmakers have posted a number that suggests his luck is about to run out.
There is no getting around Chris Flexen’s miserable start but two starts does not tell us much at all. A rookie’s major-league debut is one of the most unpredictable events in sports, as some thrive and some are overwhelmed when facing or playing on the same team as players they grew up watching. Chris Flexen had a rough debut in San Diego and then had to start his second game in Colorado. With his feet wet, we’re not putting any emphasis on his six innings of MLB service. Prior to being called up, Flexen was outstanding this season with very promising trends. His strikeout rate increased. His above-average control returned while he became more difficult to hit. His stuff is above-average, highlighted by his fastball that sits between 90-93 mph and touches 95. It features outstanding movement and is never straight. Flexen mixes in a hard cutter and a big-bending curveball. The excitement of being called up has worn off. Flexen can now go back to the things that got him here and again, the oddsmakers like his chances of success. We do too.
Brian Hay
Baltimore vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -113
Baltimore will start right hander Jremy Hellickson in tonight's game. Hellickson has a 7-5 record this year, a 4.45 ERA with 68 Ks and 31 BBs. The Angels will trot right hander Parker Bidwell out to the hill. Bridwell a 5-1 record a 3.20 ERA with 38 Ks and 16 BBs. Baltimore is only 3-8 in their last 11 during game two of a series. The Angles are 5-0 in Bridwell’s last five starts. LA is also 4-0 in Bridwell’s last four starts on grass and 4-1 in Bridwell’s last five home starts.