Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, August 9th, 2016

DAVE COKIN

TIGERS AT MARINERS
PLAY: TIGERS -103

Daniel Norris is back from his latest DL stint to try and nail down a stretch drive rotation spot for the Tigers. Norris has been a definite tease. His stuff should definitely play at the major league level. He can generate plenty of swings and misses with a solid four-pitch arsenal, and at just 23 years of age, Norris is still a pitcher with a potentially bright future. The big problem has been health, and that’s an issue that’s going to have to go away for Norris to succeed. I’m encouraged by his recent rehab starts, particularly a very solid 100-pitch outing in his final go before this recall.

Old pro Wade LeBlanc throws for the Mariners tonight. LeBlanc has been a mildly pleasant surprise for Seattle. He’s finesse all the way, with a fast ball that rarely touches 90. I guess it’s safe to say that LeBlanc is now the prototypical crafty southpaw who also is versatile enough to work as a starter or out of the pen. I can see LeBlanc creating some frustration for some of the Detroit boppers who seem to prefer facing heat. But there’s little question that LeBlanc needs to command his pitches against a lineup like this. If he’s off with location, the Tigers will have a real chance to blow him up.

Seattle comes into this battle having won four straight, so it’s not what I’d call the ideal spot to try and beat them. But off the very good reviews from the final Norris rehab start, I pretty much made up my mind to try and win with him in his first start back up with the big club, as long as the price was right. Not a problem on that count here, with the game priced in the pick ’em neighborhood. I’ll take the Tigers to even up the series with the win this evening.

Sleepyj

Cincinnati +1.5 -140

I really like Finnegan and he has been lights out his last two starts..Scary stepping in front of a guy who has only allowed 6 hits in two games and has allowed 0 ER....Finnegan stumped the Cards in his last start and he gets them once again...He should be rather confident here tonight..Although a second look for the Cards in as many days, but I'm not sold the Cards are in top form right now...Cards are in a slump winning just 3 of the last 9 and they are winning games right now with rallies and very slim margins...The last time the Cards covered a RL wager was about two weeks ago..Prior to that another two week gap before they covered the RL...In the last 20 games the Cards have covered the RL twice...Yes twice...So laying the RL with them is a bad idea..Playing against the on the RL has netted bettors a great return...Mike Leake gets the call for the Redbirds and they should be worried here..His last start was against the Reds and he got crushed...He gave up 8 hits 7ER and last only 5 innings..Again another guy who finds himself in jams and struggles to get out of them..The Reds remember that game well and they should come out in attack mode...Reds might not win the game, but the RL trend with St. Louis and the return of the pitchers with the last outing gives me reason to grab the +1.5 in this spot....I won't be surprised to see some money come in on the Reds here...Cards have burned the bettors with the RL over the last month and the Cards on a mini slump.

Rob Vinciletti

Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -174

The Redsox have won all 3 here this season and have Porcello on the mound. They are a perfect 11-0 on the season when he pitches at home and he went 7 scoreless against a better Yankee lineup earlier in the season. New York sends L. Severino to the hill. He is 0-2 vs Boston and has a dismal 7.46 Era in starts this year. TO tie in a nice system we note that road teams like the Yankees that are off a home dog win while making 3+ errors are 0-5 vs a team off a road game the past few seasons. Look for Boston to take the opener.

Brandon Lee

Red Sox -1½+ 118

Boston is worth a look Tuesday on the run line against the Yankees at home. The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello, who is 14-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. He's a perfect 10-0 and the Red Sox have won all 11 of his home starts this season. New York will counter here with Luis Severino, who will be making his first start since early May. In Severino's 7 early starts this season, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.685 WHIP. I look for him to struggle here in his first start back, especially against a potent Boston offense that is averaging 5.9 runs/game and hitting .302 as a team at home. Yankees on the other hand have really struggled at the plate on the road, scoring just 3.8 runs/game and hitting a mere .249.

Marc Lawrence

Giants vs. Marlins
Play:Marlins -105

Edges - Marlins: Tom Koehler 3-0 with 1.89 ERA career team starts versus San Francisco; and 3-0 team starts versus N.L. West this season. Giants: Matt Moore 2-9 team starts at night this season. With Koehler in great KW form with 17 Ks with 3 BBs last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Reds +160

Brandon Finnegan has not allowed a run in 12 innings his last two starts while walking only three and striking out nine. In three appearances against St. Louis this year, Finnegan has a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. The Cardinals have a .205 batting average against the left-hander and they are 25th in the major leagues with a .708 OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, Mike Leake has had three terrible starts in a row, including a 7-0 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday when he was pummeled to the tune of seven runs and eight hits in five innings. Leake has allowed 20 runs (19 earned) and 27 hits his last 16 innings. Also, Leake is just 2-5 at home this season and his opponent batting average against the Reds is .375. Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine games after a loss and the Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 home games versus left-handed starters. This is a good spot for the road underdog.

Jimmy Boyd

Braves vs. Brewers
Play: Braves +127

Atlanta is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Brewers on Tuesday. The Braves are playing some of their best baseball at the moment, as they went into Monday's action having won 8 of their last 12.

I like their chances of adding another win to the resume given the starting pitching matchup. Atlanta will send out youngster Tyrell Jenkins, who is coming off back-to-back strong outings. In his last two starts, Jenkins has allowed just 1 earned run on 7 hits in 12 innings of work. Milwaukee counters here with Wily Peralta, who will be making his first start since June. In his 13 outings with the big league club earlier this season, Peralta went a mere 4-7 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.879 WHIP. He's only making a start here because Junior Gurerra is out with an injury.

Matt Josephs

Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8

Tom Koehler is 8-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 22 starts for the Marlins with 12 of those going over the total. He's in good form, but facing the Phillies twice as of late would help make anyone look good. San Francisco's offense is capable of putting up runs averaging around 4.5 per game. The Marlins bullpen is mighty shaky before getting to Fernando Rodney and AJ Ramos. Even those two haven't been as shut down as we thought. Matt Moore is facing the Fish for the second time this season and he struggled against them last time giving up five runs and 10 hits in five innings. Miami is 18-7 against left-handed starters scoring 4.8 runs per game while hitting .265. They have scored four runs or more in five straight and 11 of their last 13. San Francisco's bullpen has been vulnerable this season and could struggle in this spot if Moore doesn't go deep. I like the over in this one.

Bob Harvey

White Sox vs. Royals
Play: White Sox -121

Take #919 Chicago White Sox -128 over Kansas City Royals (8:15 PM ET Tuesday, August 9)

Two teams whose playoff hopes are fading by the day square off in Kansas City where the Royals host the Chicago White Sox. Chris Sale and the Chisox are -121 moneyline favorites with the total at 7.5.

The White Sox (53-58, 24-32 road) which jumped out to an American League-best 23-10 record to start the season, shares an identical 53-58 record with the Royals and is also 8-15 in the second half.

The Royals (53-58, 34-20 home)plummeted from contention following a devastating 7-19 record in the month of July. Kansas City is just 8-15 in its last 23 games since the All-Star break.

Sale (14-5, 3.12 ERA) has had a string of hard-luck decisions including his last start, when he came out on the losing end of a 2-1 decision at Detroit. He has allowed four runs and 13 hits over 22 innings in his last three starts, but has received a combined five runs of offensive support. Sale is 8-9 against Kansas City.

Volquez (8-10, 4.99 ERA) was rocked for the second straight outing -- both on the road -- at Tampa Bay on Wednesday, giving up eight runs and 11 hits. He has a 6-3 record and 3.89 record in 13 home starts and has a 2-3 record with a 2.89 ERA in seven career outings versus Chicago.

Kansas City has won five of the last six series meetings while Chicago is 3-8 in its last 11 overall.

The White Sox are 6-2 to the OVER in their last eight overall while the UNDER is 12-5 in Sale’s last 17 starts vs. KC.

Frank Jordan

Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Texas Rangers +105

Texas was down 2-0 before a long ball by Beltre in the 7th cut it to 2-1, but entering the ninth Colorado held a 3-1 lead before a Texas rally as Andrus singled in a pair and scored on Moreland's double to give the Rangers a 4-3 lead with Diekman shut the door in the 9th. With these two teams playing a pair at each place they wrap up a pair in Colorado with an afternoon game with Griffin going for Texas and Chatwood for Colorado. Griffin is 5-1 on the year with a 4.01 ERA with Texas winning each of his last three starts and seven of 10. Griffin is 2-0 with a 4.06 ERA on the road and 1-0 already in August. Chatwood is 10-7 on the season with a 3.63 ERA, but Colorado has dropped three of his last five starts and is just 5-5 in his last 10. At home this season Chatwood is 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA, but 6-1 in day games with a 2.56 ERA. Thus far in August Chatwood is 0-1 with an ERA of six. Look for Chatwood to have an issue with this powerful Texas line up which will give Griffin all the runs he needs to gut out the win in a mini slugfest 7-5.

Jesse Schule

Cleveland Indians vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -176

The Indians have really struggled since the All Star break, allowing the Tigers to move within 2.5 games in the AL Central. Cleveland comes into Washington as losers of five of it's last seven, and that trend is likely to continue tonight. Max Scherzer will toe the slab for the Nats, and he's undefeated in his last five appearances. Scherzer (12-6, 2.87 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits, striking out 11 in eight innings in an 8-3 win at Arizona his last time out. He absolutely owns the Indians, with a record of 4-0, 3.46 ERA in his last eight starts against them. Cleveland will hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, who has not been sharp in recent weeks. Bauer (7-5, 4.08 ERA) was torched for eight runs on eight hits and five walks in just 2 2/3 innings in a home loss to Minnesota his last time out. He's surrendered nine runs on a dozen hits over 10 innings while losing his last two road starts, and he's 0-2 with an 8.54 ERA in his last four starts. The Indians are 1-5 in their last six road games, and they are 0-5 in their last five versus a right-handed starter.

Cajun Sports

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Detroit Tigers -104

The Detroit Tigers are in Seattle for a three-game set versus the Mariners and they will play Game Two Tuesday night. The Tigers have been profitable for their backers since the middle of May posting a record of 46-29 SU for sixty-one percent winners and a profit of +2015 for their backers. At the time of this writing the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 SU versus AL West teams and 5-0 SU in Game Two of a series. Daniel Norris will get the call for the Tigers with his 1-0 SU record and his ERA of 5.25. The Tigers have won seven of his last nine starts. Detroit has won nine of ten versus teams with a winning record. The Mariners will send Wade LeBlanc to the hill with his 1-0 SU record and his ERA of 3.81. Over his last three outings LeBlanc is 0-0 SU with an ERA of 5.51. Detroit has won five of their last seven road games versus left-handed starters. Our BbTPR Index has the Detroit Tigers with a 1.48 run advantage over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. We will back the Tigers in this situation as they take down the Mariners.

Don Best Consensus

Atlanta TT Over 4

The Braves have been swinging it well, scoring over 4 runs in five of it's last six games. The Brewers are starting Willy Peralta who was so ineffective in his first 13 games (6.68 ERA) that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A. He didn't do much better in Colorado, Peralta posted a 6.31 ERA in 10 starts.

Jim Feist

Phillies at Dodgers
Pick: Under

Philadelphia heads out on the road with a bad offense, No. 28 in baseball in runs scored, last in on-base percentage. Dodger Stadium is huge, great for pitchers, and the Under is 4-1 in Vince Velasquez's last 5 road starts. Velasquez (8-3, 3.33 ERA) has been great, allowing 2 runs or less in 8 of the last 9. The Under is 21-8 when the Phillies play Game 2 of a series. The Dodgers are No. 18 in runs scored, No. 20 IN OBP. LA is 39-18 under the total at home, plus the Under is 22-7 at home against a team with a losing road record. Starter Kenta Maeda (10-7, 3.22 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of the last 9. Maeda held the Rockies to two runs on four hits without a walk over 5.2 innings in Thursday's 4-2 victory. He struck out five. And the Under is 5-1 in Maeda's last 6 home starts.