David Banks
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: Baltimore Orioles-135
The Orioles continue to lead the AL East but only by a one-game margin over Toronto. Baltimore has won five of its last seven and begins a four-game series with Oakland on Monday. On Tuesday night, newly acquired pitcher Wade Miley (7-9) gets the start for the Orioles facing A’s rookie Zach Neal.
Baltimore’s Mark Trumbo continues to lead MLB with 31 home runs. The right-fielder is batting .267 and has 77 RBIs. He is part of a solid Orioles lineup that includes the super-hot Manny Machado. The Orioles third baseman took three trips to the plate on Sunday and hit three home runs in a 10-2 win over the White Sox. Machado became just the second player in MLB history to hit homers in the first, second, and third innings of a game.
Oakland’s pitching rotation was dealt a blow when Jesse Hahn was placed on the disabled list and Dillon Overton was sent down to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. Sonny Gray left Saturday’s game with Chicago with forearm soreness, so he may be questionable for his next start. That means Neal, who has excelled coming out of the Oakland bullpen, gets another start on Tuesday. His first was back on May 25 against Seattle. He gave up eight hits and seven runs in four innings of work.
Miley, who was acquired just before the trade deadline from Seattle, pitched well in his Orioles debut but lost to Texas, 5-3. Miley pitched five solid innings but did give up four runs in taking the loss. Trumbo, Machado, and the rest of the Baltimore offense will have to keep Miley in the game on Tuesday.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies at Dodgers
Pick: Under 7
After yesterday's game got crazy early, look for a much more "normal" Dodger Stadium game tonight. That means a pitchers duel is likely here with Vincent Velasquez of the Phillies going against Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers. An edge for each of the hurlers here is the fact that this will be their first career start against their respective opponent tonight. That means the hitters will have a lack of familiarity and that is significant because both of these pitchers have shown the ability to put plenty of zeroes up on the board. The under is 7-4 in Maeda's home starts this season and he comes into this start having allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts. He also has 31 strikeouts and just 1 walk in his last 5 starts! As for Velasquez, he has given up two earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has 114 strikeouts in his 103 innings this season! 4 of his last 5 starts have stayed under the total. In games with posted total of 7 runs or less the Phillies have gone 11-6 to the under. Also, the under is 11-4 in Philadelphia's Tuesday games this season. The under is 38-19 in Dodgers home games this season and, when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, LA has gone 11-5 to the under this season.
John Fisher
Baltimore at Oakland
Play: Baltimore
If Baltimore can make this game close for 5 innings I love their chances here. SP Miley looks to rebound and show Baltimore he will be an added addition to Baltimore's pitching staff. They face SP Neal who is a relief pitcher. He has good stuff 'but he will be cut off at 50 pitches max. So the A's will use 4 to 5 pitchers . Baltimore is HR ball or bust. In their last 13 games they have gone 5-8 and in there 8 losses had less then 1 HR in those games. SP Wiley has pitched well versus Oakland in his career.
Chase Diamond
Houston at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
This game has the 57-55 Astros and the 46-66 Twins. Well we nailed the Twins last night and I think we will stay with them again today for more of the same reasons. I really think the Astros are down after losing like they did to the Rangers and I believe you will still see heads down tonight plus the fact I think the Twins have the better Pitcher tonight and this line really is begging for Astros bettors and so far the public is falling for it as 60% are backing them. I'd wait till close to game time to place the wager as I think you will see a higher plus money number with the Twins later today. Hecto Santiago is going for the Twins and this guy just seems to win games he is 10-5 with a 4.37 ERA. Astros are 2-8 in their last 10 games and will lose again tonight.
Otto Sports
Baltimore at Oakland
Play: Baltimore -130
Oakland's pitching staff just lost two more arms as Sonny Gray and Jesse Hahn were added to the DL. As a result, the A's are forced to comb the depths of their farm system for viable options. Tonight's starter, Zach Neal, barely has bullpen quality stuff let alone enough to navigate a MLB lineup multiple times. He started one game back in late May and was torched for seven runs over four innings. His strikeout numbers are alarmingly low, even at the Minor League level. This year alone at Triple-A and Oakland, Neal is averaging less than half a strikeout per inning. Wade Miley doesn't command much respect in the betting markets and rightfully so given his season-long stats. Home runs have been his biggest bugaboo with 19 allowed over 117 innings. But Miley hasn't been that bad of late with a 4.13 ERA over his last nine starts. He walks into a decent situation tonight with a favorable ballpark and opposing lineup. There aren't too many situations where I'm looking to support an average starter like Miley as road chalk but Neal's resume suggests he's not even worthy of the tag "fringe arm." Orioles are the play tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas -1½ +147 over COLORADO
The pitching matchup here is a fairly even one with A.J. Griffin going up against Tyler Chatwood but this wager is not really about the pitching matchup. It’s about the Rockies breaking up a good thing because of money. Let us explain.
Colorado Rockies OF Gerardo Parra was activated from the 15-day disabled list Sunday, August 7. Parra, who last played on June 14, returned to a 5-27-.263 line with six stolen bases in 243 AB’s, and his reinstatement creates an interesting scenario for the Rockies. You see, Parra inked a three-year, $27.5M contract in January and at the time of his injury, was playing regularly. After the All-Star break, the team reeled off a string of victories, which roughly coincided with the promotion of outfielder David Dahl—and all he’s done is get hits in each of the 14 games in which he’s played, batting .370 with three HR and a .986 OPS. In his first game back, Manager Walt Weiss was able to slip Parra into Carlos Gonzalez’s RF spot as Gonzalez was dealing with a sore ankle, but the manager said, “I have four really good outfielders and I can’t look into the future and say exactly how it’s going to go.” Really Walt? How about we tell you how it’s “going to go”?
Since EVERYTHING is about money, the Rocks are not going to pay Parra 9M a year to sit. They would rather lose than do that so Parra plays. That breaks up the great chemistry that this team had with Dahl playing and Parra on the DL. On Sunday, the Rocks lost 10-7 to the Marlins in Parra’s first game back. Yesterday, Parra went 1-4 and the Rocks lost again. Parra is a decent player, however, there is an old cliche that says, if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. The Rocks had tremendous momentum after Saturday’s win that put them within three games of a Wild Card. Subsequently, Parra comes off the DL and the Rocks lose two straight. You don’t break up a good thing but the Rocks have made their decision and now the losing may not stop.
N.Y. Yankees +156 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello is 14-3 with an ERA of 3.46 after 22 starts this season. Porcello is consistent and is a double-digit winner every year but he's not close to being as good as advertised. Porcello’s swing and miss rate is 8%. His swing and miss rate over his last six starts is 6%. His groundball rate has been showing a steady decrease month by month and is down to 40% over the past month. Porcello is coming off back-to-back complete games in Anaheim and in Seattle while throwing 220 pitches. He’ll now pitch in the scorching heat that ha engulfed the East Coast. Porcello’s groundball slide is troubling. He gave up three jacks in his last start which could be another sign of trouble for a starter with gopheritis troubles in his past. His 119 K’s in 143 innings is nice but it comes without swing and miss rate endorsement. Suddenly, Porcello’s sinker/slider combo looks less stable. It is time to sell Rick Porcello because he’s reached his peak.
New York Yankees starter Chad Green was optioned to Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Thursday, Aug. 4. Well, that was quick! Green allowed 12 baserunners (eight hits, four walks) in 3.2 innings on his way to a disaster start on Aug. 3, taking the first turn in the rotation slot vacated by the traded Ivan Nova. Luis Severino relieved Green in the fourth inning and kept New York in the game, tossing 4.1 innings and notching five strikeouts against one hit and one walk and was rewarded with the win for his efforts. Severino's next reward is here and it would surprise us not if he thrived.
Severino went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 62 innings last year. This top prospect impressed in his 11-start trial with control/K-rate/command numbers backed by ample first-pitch strike and swing and miss rates. Severino’s hard fastball/slider combination induces plenty of groundballs and whiffs, and allows him to work deep into games. Next on the docket is proof of durability and the effectiveness of his third pitch, something he has been working in with great results in the minors this season. Severino has wicked stuff and the Yanks have played this hand near flawlessly in the way they have groomed him to be ready. Severino and the Yanks offer up a ton of value here. Invest.
Tampa Bay +170 over TORONTO
We’re not going to go over this every time Marco Estrada pitches and we’re not going to fade him every time he pitches either. However, when it’s warranted, like it is today, we will fade Estrada and the Blue Jays. With a luck driven low hit rate and high strand rate, with an xERA almost two runs higher than his actual ERA and with his pedestrian 88-mph fastball, there should be some regression at some point for Estrada.
The Jays erupted for seven runs last night. The media is reporting that Toronto snapped out of its offensive drought so let’s go over that. With two outs in the fourth and men on 2nd and third….Odorizzi struck out Donaldson but the catcher missed the ball (passed ball not wild pitch). Next man up hits a single and two runs score. Instead of zero runs, Toronto scores two. Bottom of seven with bases loaded and no out, Melvin Upton strikes out for the 100th time in his last 101 AB’s for the first out of the inning. Next guy up, Justin Smoak hits a comebacker and the pitcher throws home for the second out of the inning. However, as the catcher lines up to throw to first for the easy double play, the runner heading home slides into the catcher’s foot and he falls down and can’t make the throw. Instead of three outs……inning over…..one run scores and the next guy hits a double. Three runs in instead of none again. Two of the Jays seven runs were legit. So, while the media will write about an offence that woke up, if you were paying attention and watched that game, they didn’t wake up at all. They got extremely lucky and they’ll now face a pitcher that is their Kryptonite in Drew Smyly.
Drew Smyly’s 5.14 ERA is one of the five worst ERA’s in the AL among pitchers with 100+ IP. That said, Smyly is a highly skilled pitcher that has had bad fortune go against him this year. His base skills remain elite with 9.5 K’s/9, 2.5 BB’s/9 and an xERA of 3.12. In his last start, Smyly struck out 10 in seven innings. He’s suffered from a high 33% hit rate and very low 63% strand rate. His 11.2% swing and miss rate validates his lofty strikeout totals and he’ll now face a Jays’ team that he has owned in his career with a 2-2 record but 0.77 WHIP and 2.65 ERA over 34 innings. The price on Smyly and the Rays here is just stupid. Can the Jays win? Of course they can but it's likely around a 50/50 propostion, which tells us exactly how to play it.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Houston
The Astros are in a bit of a bad way right now having dropped three in a row, including last night's 3-1 loss here in Minnesota. Despite that disappointing result, they still have a respectable +33 run differential for the year (have allowed fewest runs in the entire American League) and thus probably "should" be better than just three games above .500. For a point of comparison, the first place team in their own division (Texas) has only a +5 run differential.
Minnesota is second to last in run differential among AL clubs (-62) having dug itself a huge hole at the start of the season. The Twins have actually been a lot more respectable of late, but I believe tonight is Houston's game for the taking. Last Thursday, I played against Twins starter Hector Santiago, who had just come over in a curious trade with the Angels. I warned that Santiago's record (then 10-4) was not really indicative of how he'd pitched and sure enough he ended up allowing four runs in only five innings. That leaves Santiago w/ a 4.70 ERA and 1.696 WHIP his L3 starts overall.
Houston will counter here w/ Michael Fiers, who is off three straight quality starts. We're looking at a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP during that time, so much better numbers than Santiago. Sadly, even though he's allowed just three runs and nine hits in his L2 starts (12 1/3 IP), the Astros have dropped both games (3-2 to Detroit, 4-1 to Toronto). Fiers will need some offense here and fortunately for him, the Twins give up about 5.2 rpg at home. Fiers is due and so are the Astros.
Oskeim Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles right-hander Jered Weaver toes the rubber with a 5.11 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 starts this season, and those poor results are substantiated by a 5.42 FIP, 5.72 xFIP and a 5.55 SIERA (5.8% K-BB%). Don't be fooled by Weaver's 3.57 ERA in July as the veteran hurler also posted a 5.12 FIP and a 6.33 xFIP across 22.2 innings with a 2.2% K-BB%.
Chicago starter John Lackey owns a 2.83 ERA in 76.1 innings at Wrigley Field this season. The veteran hurler has also posted a decent 3.87 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP in the second half with a 23.6% K% (8.33 K/9) and a 4.7% BB% (1.67 BB/9). Lackey is also supported by a very good Chicago bullpen that boasts a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2016, including a 0.66 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in interleague play and a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games.
With Chicago standing at 10-1 in its last 11 games overall, take the Cubs as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick for Tuesday, August 9.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -128
I like the value we are getting on the Chicago White Sox Tuesday as small road favorites over the Kansas City Royals. Rarely will you get to back Chris Sale, one of the best starters in baseball, at this kind of price.
Sale has been dominant again in 2016, going 14-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 21 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 12 starts away from home. Sale is also 7-7 with a 3.03 ERA in 17 career starts against Kansas City.
Edinson Volquez certainly hasn't pitched anywhere near the level he did last year. The right-hander is 8-10 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 23 starts this season. He has gotten worse of late, going 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 25 base runners in 11 innings.
The White Sox are 7-2 in Sale's last nine starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 games following a win. Kansas City is 0-7 in its last seven games after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game.
Brad Diamond
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Rangers +100
In game #1 of the series Texas won 4-3 yesterday running their record to 66-47 solidifying first place in the American League West. Colorado is now 55-57 on the season and looks to rebound against savvy RHP Griffin (5-1, 4.05) who has gone 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA during the last three mound starts. The Rockies bring hurler Chatwood (10-7, 3.63) who carries a 4-7 record at home with a 5.72 ERA. However he has pitched well L3 starts with a solid 2-1 record (2.05). Texas brings an overall TBA of .263 vs. Colorado's .272, from the pitching standpoint the Rockies are way down in the rankings #27 with a 4.77 ERA. Texas a little better with a 4.30 TERA, the Rangers have been winning close games than the Rockies. Texas has won 3 straight and come a perfect 5-0 against >.500 units, 6-0 with Griffin on the hill. So, with Colorado 27-66 (.290) against Interleague units and 9-19 lately vs. RHP...
Rocketman
Houston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +123
The Houston Astros travel to Minnesota to take on the Twins on Tuesday night. Houston is 57-55 SU overall this year while Minnesota comes in with a 46-66 SU overall record on the season. Michael Fiers is 1-2 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year. Hector Santiago is 10-5 SU overall this year, 5-2 at home and 2-1 his last 3 starts. Houston is scoring only 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year and 2 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a 1-6 SU record. Minnesota is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Minnesota is 6-2 so far in August and 13-7 when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -127
Wade Miley has helped solidify Baltimore's rotation here down the stretch. He has posted a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now takes on the lowly Oakland A's. Miley has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them. Zach Neal has just recently moved into Oakland's rotation. His first and only start did not go so well as he gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings against Seattle for a 15.75 ERA. Baltimore is 40-17 (+16.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The A's are 29-59 in their last 88 games vs. a left-handed starter. Oakland is 2-8 in its last 10 games overall.
Ari Atari
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Reds +1½
Cincinnati is 13-8 in their last 20 games. Cardinals have lost six of last nine games. Finnegan is 2-0, 0.00 in 12 innigs pitched in his last two starts. Leake is 1-2, 10.59 in his last three starts. Take the Reds on the +1.5 for added security at a great price.
Buster Sports
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: White Sox -124
Tonight in Kansas City hard luck pitcher LH Chris Sale (14-5, 3.12 ERA) goes to the hill for the White Sox and he has been close to lights out in his last 3 starts. He has a 1.64 ERA with a WHIP of 0.969 and his record in those starts is 0-2. Now that is some tough luck. When you allow 4 runs in 3 starts and don't win a game we all know what that means, no run support. We believe that will change tonight as the White Sox face the Royals starter RH Edinson Vólquez (8-10, 4.99ERA). Volquez has a ugly 6.88 ERA with a WHIP of 2.059 in his last 3 starts. Backing our selection is the fact that the Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 games following a win and the fact that the Royals are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Bryan Leonard
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Play: San Francisco Giants -104
After a long extra inning contest yesterday the Giants and Marlins are back at it on Tuesday. Matt Moore is making his second start since being traded to the Giants. We feel the switch to the National League will be a positive one for Moore who is pitching his best ball in quite some time.
San Francisco is the better hitting team and the Giants own the better defensive squad. Even if Buster Posey sits this one out after taking a header into third base yesterday, we still prefer the all-around game of the Giants.