Dave Essler
Kansas City +110
I think anytime you've got the Royals at home at plus-money you've got to consider it. Kansas City has been a terrible road team this season, but an impressive home team, going 34-20 in Kauffman Stadium. Back in late May Volquez beat Sale here in a game that was largely decided by bullpens, but the Royals have had very good success against Sale. In fact, Sale is 8-9 against the Royals lifetime, one of only three teams he doesn't have a winning record against (the other two being the Rays and Indians).In this stadium he's actually given up a couple more hits than innings pitched, and his K9 is well below every other team except Toronto. Part of this I've always attributed to the Royals discipline and the fact that they put the ball in play more than most. The temperature at game time will be in the upper 80's which is clearly not conducive to pitchers throwing eight innings - leaving this game perhaps to the pens as well. We know the Royals don't have Wade Davis, but even at the they're pen is FAR better than Chicago's - who on the season has a 5.26 ERA on the road, and it's nearing that mark over the last week. Sale has pitched well since the break, but hasn't won since the break - he's allowed four earned runs in three games and lost all three since the White Sox aren't scoring for him. It's typical for him to throw 100+ pitches, but after doing so in those three games, and losing, and now realizing that the playoffs are likely out of the question - I wonder about his (and the teams') mental state. That's added to by the whole uniform/suspension thing. Volquez has had a couple of bad outings, both on the road, but at home his splits are far better. Chicago has hit two home runs off of him in 150 at bats, none by Todd Frazier (3-20 against him), Adam Eaton (5-26 against him), or Jose Abreu (4-17) against Volquez. The Royals just took two from Toronto at home, double digit hits in both games, then had yesterday off. So, perhaps momentum in the right direction. Chicago is 3-8 their last eleven games - well below .500 on the road - and has one way to win, and that's (IMO) if Sales is a total freak. Kansas City can win this with Volquez, their pen, or their bats - and they have the last at bat.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota +126
Losers of 11 of their last 14, and with the offense on the blink, the Astros are a curious favorite tonight against the hot Twins, who have won 9 of 12. Remember, the Angels won in 8 of the last 9 starts made by Minnesota's recently-added Hector Santiago Houston's Mike Fiers has pitched well in his last two starts but was blasted in his three prior outings, and the Astros have lost in 3 of his last 4 starts.