Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, July 18th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

TIGERS VS. ROYALS
PLAY: TIGERS +102

Detroit was an easy winner on Monday, blowing out to a big early lead and coasting to the finish line. I see the Motowners with a shot to capture another victory tonight.

This is mostly a play against the Royals. KC got very hot in pushing its way back into the AL Central race and the wild card conversation. But the Royals got cooled off against the Dodgers heading into the break. A very rough start out of the All-Star hiatus has propelled the Royals into what is now a full blown slump.

Barring a sudden resurgence, it now looks as though Kansas City might have to switch gears from what was go for it mode to seller status with the trade deadline approaching. The problem is the offense, which has gone back into hibernation.

Neither of tonight’s starting pitchers inspires any confidence, so this has a good chance to be decided by the bats, in which case a stronger case must be made for Detroit. That’s especially the case with lefties throwing as the splits clearly favor the visitors. At roughly even money or better, the Tigers are the choice.

Scott Spreitzer

Cleveland at San Francisco
Play: Cleveland -127

Cleveland finally got on track last night in SFO after getting swept over the weekend. We have gone on record believing this is the one team that can truly challenge Houston in the American League this postseason, but they sure didn't play like it in Oakland. Now, back in the win column, and across the bay, we expect the Indians to make it at least two in a row. Mike Clevinger is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last five starts and as reported elsewhere, the righthander is 6th best in the league, posting a .149 BAA with off-speed pitches. I expect Clevinger to keep the Giants off-speed all night. He owns a 1.15 WHIP and .184 BAA in 12 appearances (11 starts) this season and he's saved his best work for the road. Ty Blach had a couple of decent starts, but he's been a bit of a mess since June 7, watching his ERA rise from 3.24 to 4.60 over the last five weeks. The Indians enter on an 8-1 run in IL action against teams with a losing record and they're on a 5-1 run when Clevinger pitches on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped six straight against AL righthanders.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland at San Francisco
Play: Cleveland -128

Edges - Indians: Clevinger 5-1 with 2.56 ERA away team starts this season… Giants: Blach 8.16 ERA last six starts… With the visiting team 9-2 in Clevinger’s team starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.

Mike Anthony

Philadelphia vs. Miami
Play: Miami -135

Miami's team, overall, has been playing pretty good with some good wins lately. Their defensive adjustments have been second to none - with hardly any errors in the field. Christian Yelich has really been some nice lateral quickness this year - his main calling card is his defense as of right now. Miami has 3 full time guys with less than 8 blunders - and have been playing better each week. The Philadelphia starters have been lacking, in every semblance of the word. Maikel Franco looks like he has a problem with hitting the inside fastball and Tommy Joseph cannot seem to hit a breaking ball at all, lately. But there are a few decent bats on the team - but Philadelphia hasn't seemingly found a way to get them worked in quite enough. The Philadelphia offense has been just horrible - as they have scored 3 or less runs in the majority of their last several games.

Larry Ness

New York at Minnesota
Play: New York -119

The Minnesota Twins finished last season with the worst record in the major leagues at 59-103, the lone team with triple-digit losses. However, the Twins have been in the thick of things all season in the AL Central and Monday's 4-2 win over the Yankes ekept them just 1 1/2 games behind Cleveland for first place in the division plus drew them within a half-game of New York for the AL's second wild card spot. The Yankees fell to 2-3 on their 11-game road trip but in more troubling news for Yankee fans, to just 9-21 over their last 30. Rookie phenom Aaron Judge has struggled mightily since the All-Star break, going 1-for-21 (zero HRs & RBI).

Luis Cessa (0-3, 4.18 ERA) will get the start for New York in this one and Bartolo Colon (2-8, 8.14 ERA) will get the start for the Twins (more in a bit). Cessa remains in search of his first victory of the season as he makes his fourth overall start and first since June 29. Cessa came out of the bullpen to face Minnesota once last year, yielding a solo HR and a walk in 1 2/3 innings. Colon is getting another chance to prove he still can pitch in the major leagues after a horrendous 13-start tenure with Atlanta that resulted in his release on July 4. He won 15 games with the New York Mets last season but was awful with Atlanta. Colon signed a minor-league deal with the Twins three days after his release by the Braves and even though he allowed four runs over 3 2/3 innings in a start for Triple-A Rochester on Thursday, will get a major-league start in this one. Colon owns a 7-8 record and 5.28 ERA in 21 career starts against the Yankees (teams are 11-10).

Sure, the Yankees are in a funk but Colon is no longer a major-league pitcher, something he likely knows already and the Twins will be reminded of that fact, tonight.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay at Oakland
Pick: Tampa Bay

Tampa is within striking distance of Boston in the AL East, just three games back as of Monday. However, they need to beat teams like Oakland if they hope to contend at the end of the season for a playoff spot. The Rays took game one on Tuesday against the A's and now turn to Blake Snell to keep the momentum going. Snell is still looking for his first win this season, against five losses and a 4.85 ERA. Snell pitched well enough to win last time out, allowing no runs over five innings against the Cubs, but took a no decision. Snell has a high WHIP (1.63) due to his high walk count, 34 on the season against just 45 KO's. The last place Oakland A's will turn to 36-year-old Christ Smith. Smith makes just his second start of the season tonight after a six inning outing last time at Seattle. Neither of these pitchers are very good, but Tampa has the better team and the motivation to win.

Brandon Lee

Cubs vs. Braves
Play: Cubs -105

The Cubs have come out of the break looking like the team we expected to see from the start. After a 3-game sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore, they went to Atlanta and held on for a 4-3 win. Even with the recent success, Chicago is getting zero love here with John Lackey on the mound, who has struggled in 2017. Lackey is a gamer and he should be refreshed having not started since 7/5. I'll take my chances here with the Cubs, who have the offensive fire-power to overcome a sub-par outing from Lackey. Atlanta's rookie Sean Newcomb pitched well in his first 4 starts, but 3 of those came at home against some lesser offensive teams and the other was at San Diego. His last two starts were against the Astros and Natioanls and it was ugly. Newcomb allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and 6 walks in a mere 7 1/3 innings against those two. With the way the Cubs are swinging the bat, I look for Chicago's offense to put up a big number here.

Darryl Tucholski

St Louis at New York
Play: St Louis -115

Despite how down the Cardinals have been, the Mets are no better. Montero has been shaky, and the switch back and forth from rotation to the pen, is not helping. Michael Wacha has allowed only 2 ER or less in each of his last 4 outings.

Teddy Davis

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -1½

You can add me to the list of people who don't believe in the Brewers. I think this team over achieved big time in the first half and will come back to the earth the 2nd half.

Nova for the Pirates has been great this year with a 3.21 ERA on the season. At home is clearly where he feels the most comfort. He is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA.

There is no doubt Guerra has a lot of talent, but it hasn't translated well so far. He has a 4.78 ERA on the season and a 5.59 ERA on the road. His recent form is even worse with a 10.33 ERA his last three starts.

Jimmy Boyd

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -142

Pittsburgh is playing their best baseball of the season right now. The Pirates are 8-2 over their last 10, which includes yesterdays 4-2 win over division leader Milwaukee. It was the Brewers second straight loss and a third straight poor showing from the offense. Hard to see Milwaukee getting back on track at the plate against Pirates starter Ivan Nova, who is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 8 home starts.

Pittsburgh's offense will be getting a boost, as Marte is set to return from his suspension and that's a big addition. I'll take my chances on the Pirates offense doing enough here to get the victory. Milwaukee will send out Junior Guerra, who has struggled to replicate his success from last year. Guerra is 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 10 starts and it's even worse on the road where he has a 5.59 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in 4 outings.

Jack Jones

Cleveland at San Francisco
Play: Cleveland -138

The Cleveland Indians finally ended their 4-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory over the San Francisco Giants last night. This is a Giants team that has gone 1-7 in their last eight games overall to fall to 35-59 on the season.

The Indians have the clear edge on the mound tonight behind Mike Clevinger, who is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Clevinger is also 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in six road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last three starts.

Ty Blach is 6-5 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He is a soft tosser who has struck out just 41 batters in 86 1/3 innings this year. Blach has really struggled of late, going 2-1 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in his last three starts.

Cleveland is 16-1 vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Indians are 5-1 in Clevinger's last six road starts. The Giants are 2-11 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

3G-Sports

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -126

Baltimore's Dylan Bundy now has a team best 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP on the year. And with the O's just a handful of games back in a very winnable AL East, Baltimore is primed for the push. One of the reasons the O's have been good this year is their closers are finishing their games out. They aren't losing games with Jonathan Schoop hitting like he has and Trey Mancini - who are taking care of what they need to do. Baltimore is going to be an interesting team to watch - come gritty game time.

It is polite to refer to this Texas team right now as just mediocre. At almost 20 games behind Houston in AL West - Texas has no chance for much of anything. They have been playing some bad baseball and the little simplistic reason they are not utterly and completely out of contention is they have had the fortune to play some teams recently, that are just worse.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit -105 over KANSAS CITY

This past off-season, Travis Wood signed a two-year deal with the Kansas City Royals worth $12 million. For that 12 million, the Royals have gotten 33 innings, 19 walks, a 1.81 WHIP and a 6.06 ERA out of Wood. Six million doesn’t buy what it used to. Wood was last used regularly as a starter in 2014 and his weak control is currently the highest on the K.C. active roster. Wood has been passed over in favor of Matt Strahm, Eric Skoglund, Luke Farrell and Jake Junis to name a few so he’s about the 11th man on the Royals starting rotation totem pole. Travis Wood is 30 years old and has appeared in 285 games over his career. Wood was used exclusively as a reliever (77 appearances) in 2016, but pitched a bit as a starter in 2015 (seven games at the start of the season and two spot starts in September), bracketing 45 appearances as a reliever that season. Those nine games in 2015 and his previous five seasons' history as a starter were reportedly enough for him to battle for the backend of the K.C. rotation but he’s failed miserably. Travis Wood has one foot in the gutter but he’s favored here because Matt Boyd was sent down in late May after getting whacked at this level in four straight starts from May 13 to May 31. Boyd comes in with a 5.69 ERA.

The question now becomes which Matt Boyd are we going to see? Nobody knows but what we do know is that Boyd has very good stuff that can dominate for stretches. He’s a tweak or two away from being a mainstay in the rotation. While his stats and skills scream plateau, there are four reasons to speculate on a breakout - 1) Huge skills growth over past 1½ seasons; 2) better vR then ever before; 3) at the right age for another step up; 4) continues to dominate at the minor league level. Matt Boyd has dominated at this level before. Earlier this year, Boyd threw a one-hit, six inning gem against the Twins and held the Tribe to one run over six innings the following start. He subsequently threw a very decent game in Arizona before the wheels fell off. Boyd was outstanding in July and August of last year over nine starts for the Tigers too. At Triple-A Toledo in June and half of July of this year, all Boyd did was strike out 53 batters in 51 frames and allow 35 hits for a BAA of .191. He has the skills and now he just needs some polish that can kick in at any time. Matt Boyd is the superior pitcher here, the Tigers own the superior offense and they’re in much better form too.

PITTSBURGH -1½ +144 over Milwaukee

Ivan Nova had a rough start against the first place Brewers back on June 22 but that start was at hitter-friendly Miller Park. Today, Nova gets the Crew exactly where he wants to, at home, where he is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 3.27 xERA and 1.03 WHIP across eight starts. In 51 innings at PNC Park, Nova has been taken yard just three times while issuing just six walks. The Brewers offense is one that relies on going yard. They had many chances to score last night in a 4-2 loss but could not hit one over the fence and therefore could not add to their two-run, early lead. Some of what Milwaukee has accomplished so far is certainly real. Or maybe all of it is partially real, and partially short-lived. Eric Sogard, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, and Keon Broxton have always shown a blend of solid, valuable skills but it’s unlikely those players all continue to hit their ceilings at once. Despite taking two of three from Philly after the break, we saw the Crew struggle against them and get very lucky to win that series. We saw them struggling last night too.

The Pirates are 8-2 over their past 10 games. They are now just six games back of the Crew for first place in the NL Central. A win here cuts that lead down to five and now the Pirates will face Milwaukee’s biggest liability. Junior Guerra’s xERA is approaching Bo Derek movie title levels (we may have made this joke before, but it’s still apropos, so it stays) and that’s not good. Guerra has been absolutely dreadful for over two months. During that span, his xERA is 6.22. His batted ball profile is vile with 27% grounders, 36% line-drives and 38% fly-balls. Both his groundball and hard hit rates are bottom three in the game and now his control is getting weaker by the day also. You see, when a pitcher is getting whacked every time out, his confidence gets shattered and then they start to nibble for fear of throwing something juicy over the plate. That’s what’s happening with Guerra, as he has walked 14 batters over his past 17 frames and has posted an 8.31/7.22 ERA/xERA split over that span. Don’t be afraid or hesitant to spot 1½-runs ever. Most games are won by two or more runs and the take-back when spotting that extra half run is big compared to playing it straight up. That’s how we’ll play this one.

N.Y. Yankees -1½ +120 over MINNESOTA

With Michael Pineda out for the remainder of this year and very likely all of next year too, the Yanks have some options to replace him. Last night’s starter, Bryan Mitchell threw a decent game and he’ll likely get another chance. Caleb Smith and Chad Green will also be considered but the most intriguing might be Chance Adams, who is the Yankees top pitching prospect. Adams has only logged 57.2 Triple-A innings thus far in his two-year minor league career with 64 K’s against 22 walks issued but keep an eye out for him in case he gets called up. Tonight’s starter, Luis Cessa will get his shot here. Cessa was generally successful as a starter with the Yankees in 2016, getting nine starts and showing decent control and command but low dominance (6.1 K’s/9) and too many HR (1.9 hr/9) ultimately got him sent back down. His 2017 results to date in Triple-A are in line with those 2016 numbers, although the 1.0 hr/9 shows some improvement. Cessa has made six appearances for the Yanks with three of those coming as a starter. As a starter, Cessa is 0-3 but he’s struck out 16 batters in 20 frames with six walks issued. His good fastball velocity (95 mph) and ability to miss bats (11% swing and miss rate) give him a solid foundation that could help him win this rotation spot for the time being. Whether he thrives here or not remains to be seen but he’s not our target. We are merely outlining Cessa’s brief MLB history and the current state of the Yankees rotation. The target here comes in the form of one Bartolo Colon, who was released by the Atlanta Braves a couple of weeks ago.

Reports from Colon's start for Triple-A Rochester on Thursday, July 13, said he failed to reach 90 mph. The 44-year-old was roughed up by the Leigh Valley IronPigs, lasting 3.2 innings and giving up four runs on four hits, including a home run. He also walked two batters. One has to wonder what the contending Twinkies were thinking with this move. You mean to tell us that this is the best pitcher available on the planet? The Twinkies brass, or whoever makes these decisions, is about to embarrass themselves again. For years, Minnesota has had the least amount of quality arms in the league and they’ve now added the absolute worst one available. Surely, they could have reached into one of their minor league affiliates and called up a journeyman to fill the position for now. Pitching in the National League, Colon did not have a good time with Atlanta (8.14 ERA, 7.92 xERA). With a 4% swing and miss rate, a 13.50 ERA and a 2.75 WHIP (!) over his last five starts, Colon will not be facing any pitchers in the nine spot this time around. Colon throws a straight 86 MPH fastball 90% of the time and that’s exactly what every player in the Home Run Derby faced too. Yeah, the Yanks might score some runs tonight.

San Diego -1½ +225 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

16-23 + 25.65 units

Power Sports

Seattle vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -180

The American League West race is over at this point with the first place Astros holding a 15.5 game edge over the rest of the field. They have outscored opponents by 165 runs over the course of the season, easily an AL best, and what's most impressive is that they are "only" 29-20 at home. Now Seattle did beat them in last night's series opener, their fifth straight win, but the odds are not in their favor Tuesday and I expect Houston to bounce back.

The best the Mariners can hope for at this point is a Wild Card and they enter Tuesday just 1.5 games out in what should be a wide open race. But the pitching matchup just isn't in their favor tonight. Sam Gaviglio gave up seven runs his last time out and that was against last place Oakland. It's hard to imagine him pitching any better than he did the last time he faced Houston, when he gave up only two runs on six hits. And the M's still lost that game, 5-2.

Brad Peacock goes for the home team. He threw six scoreless innings in his last start and has allowed just 6 ER total his L5 starts overall (27 1/3 IP). While his WHIP is a little higher than what you want to see, he doesn't give up many home runs (none in last six starts). Houston is 21-8 off a loss this year and should bounce back w/ no problem tonight.