Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, July 19

Rob Vinciletti

Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Blue Jays -175

The Jays are 4-0 as a road favorite off a road win where they scored 5+ runs and are 8-1 as a road favorite vs N.L. Teams. Arizona has lost 30 of 43 as a home dog vs A.L. Teams. They are 0-6 off back to back 1 run wins and as seen below in our spot light trend. The D-Backs are 0-15 as a home dog off a home win where they scored 5+ runs. They have Godley and his 4.91 era on the mound against A. Sanchez who has a 2.33 road Era. Toronto also qualifies in a nifty 16-3 road warrior system that plays on road favorites off a road win scoring 5+ runs vs a team off a home dog win.

Mike Lundin

Tampa Bay at Colorado
Play: Colorado -150

The Tampa Bay Rays entered this three-game set with the Colorado Rockies on the back of a 5-2 win against Baltimore home at the Trop. They've still dropped 11 straight road games and 25 of 29 overall and suffered a 7-4 setback against the Rockies in last night's contest.

Blake Snell (1-4, 3.69 ERA) takes the ball for the Rays tonight. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his first six major-league starts, but he's been forced to get himself out of plenty of jams. Pitching at Coors Field will be a tough task for the rookie and the Rockies are 5-1 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Tyler Chatwood (8-5, 3.29) takes the ball for Colorado. His 5-0 record behind a 1.30 ERA in eight road starts says quite a bit about his capacity, and his overall ERA is bloated by pitching at Coors Field. He should be able to keep the Rays' anemic bats at bay tonight.

The Rockies will also have the advantage with a home friendly umpire; the home team is 40-13 in Clint Fagan's last 53 games behind home plate.

Art Aronson

Twins vs. Tigers
Play: Over 10

The visitors hand the ball to Tommy Milone (2-2, 4.97 ERA) who has strung a couple of decent starts together, most recently holding the Rangers to two earned runs off five hits and three walks in his team’s eventual 15-5 win on Sunday. Milone though has struggled on the road this year, going just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Anibal Sanchez (5-10, 6.75) who was shelled for five runs off eight hits and two walks over four innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. Sanchez has now given up a whopping 12 runs in 8.1 innings over his last two trips to the mound. Note that Sanchez has been particularly average at home, 3-4 with a poor 5.66 ERA thus far. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head, the OVER does indeed become a legitimate investment option.

Marc Lawrence

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play:Brewers +115

Edges - Brewers: Junior Guerra 5-1 as a dog and 5-1 at night teams starts; and 2.74 ERA with 1.00 WHIP last seven starts. Pirates: Jameson Taillon 6.30 ERA home as opposed to 2.50 ERA away this season. With Guerra 6-0 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in his MLB career away team team starts, we’ll back the better arm and recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.

Jim Feist

Rangers at Angels
Pick: Over

Texas brings a top 10 offense into Anaheim, a good offensive park. 37-year old starter Kyle Lohse never threw the ball hard and now he's throwing it poorly, with an ERA over 10. The Over is 7-3-1 in the Rangers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. LA starter Tim Lincecum (1-3, 6.85 ERA) has allowed 49 base runners in 23+ innings. The Over is 6-2 in the Angels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Scott Spreitzer

Atlanta at Cincinnati
Pick: Atlanta

It's surprising that Cody Reed is still in the major leagues let alone a relatively big favorite for Cincinnati even against the last-place Braves. The Reds have lost all five of his starts by a combined score of 44-17 and Reed's record is 0-4 with an 8.39 ERA. The left-hander has been pummeled to the tune of 28 runs (23 earned) and 36 hits in only 24 2/3 innings and opponents have a .330 batting average against him. Tyrell Jenkins made his first start on July 6 at Philadelphia and gave up one run and four hits in 4 2/3 innings. Jenkins was Atlanta's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015 and he had a 2.97 ERA as a starting pitcher in Triple A this season. Atlanta got off to a horrible start this year, but the Reds have lost only three fewer games than the Braves. Atlanta is a live underdog in this matchup.

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore -101 over N.Y. YANKEES

Vance Worley is a relief pitcher that has made 20 appearances this season with 18 of those being out of the pen. Worley is no stranger to starting. He’s made 124 MLB appearances with 83 of those being starts. This year he has 34 K’s in 47 frames to go along with a 2.87 ERA but we never put heavy weight on what a pitcher does out of the pen because it’s means nothing when you are facing one or two batters every time you’re called upon.

Last season, Worley went 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 71 innings for the Pirates covering 15 relief appearances and eight starts. He was bumped from the Pirates rotation by mid-May and their roster by August. The bullpen may be his best role but even there, a lack of K’s limits his ceiling. He does however, have an elite groundball profile and one only needs one skill to dominate the Yanks. Worley has that but even if he did not, when New York is favored with anyone other than Tanaka starting, you can pencil us in on the dog.

The Yanks scored twice last night and won 2-1. They scored three times on Sunday in a 3-1 victory over the Red Sox. Since June 25, New York has scored two runs or less 10 times. No other team in the majors can make that claim. The Yanks have a great bullpen and some decent starters but their offense is a bad joke that is only getting worse as the dog days of summer approach. That offense in support of Nathan Eovaldi is a combination you want to stay the hell away from.

Eovaldi had a great start to the season but it didn’t last long. It never does for him. He’s a hard throwing right-hander but without movement, that heat is worthless. It’s also worthless without great control but Eovaldi does not have that either. Over his last 23 innings, Eovaldi has a BB/K split of 13/13. His WHIP on the year is 1.38 but 1.50 over his last 10 appearances. For the most part, Eovaldi has managed to skirt scrutiny because of the run support he's received since becoming a Yankee. This has padded his win total and not hurt his loss total even though he's been generally ineffective in most of his starts (17%/33% dominant start/disaster start split in 40 starts since last year). Cursed with a screaming fastball that lacks movement, players will continue to treat Eovaldi like a batting cage machine until he can provide more effective secondary offerings. This enemy should treat him accordingly.

WASHINGTON +103 over Los Angeles

Scott Kazmir has been relatively high on our fade list and now he’s favoured on the road in Washington. That’s our cue to jump in. Kazmir has 106 K’s in 98 innings but with a 10% swing and miss rate, you can expect his K-rate to decrease significantly in the second half. Furthermore, Kazmir has been awful the second and third time through lineups with xERA’s of 4.49 the second time through and 6.01 the third time through. Kazmir has a pedestrian 41%/22%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile not to mention a below average WHIP of 1.32. His 7-3 record in 18 starts is one of the more misleading W/L records in the game. In 18 starts this year, only seven of those have been of the pure quality variety. That he’s favored in Washington is incorrect.

Reynaldo Lopez will make his MLB debut here and that almost always brings risk but it can also play off handsomely because the market is usually not familiar with first-time starters. Lopez was given a paltry $17,000 to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2012 and after entering the Washington organization, he was far from a household name, starting his pro career off with two pedestrian minor-league seasons. Than 2014 happened. He came out popping near-triple digits on the radar gun, posted a 1.08 ERA in stops at Auburn and Hagerstown, and quickly established himself as one of the most intriguing right-handed arms in the lower level. He was solid—if not spectacular in 2015—but the big step forward was this season. He struck out 100 hitters in just over 76 innings with a 3.18 ERA, and after two solid starts in the International League, the Nationals felt confident enough to give him a shot against big-league hitters. You can watch his delivery in this video from two different angles:

Built with a shorter frame—though one that's otherwise plenty durable and athletic—Lopez gets to his velocity by way of some effort in his delivery. His arm-speed is about as good as it gets, but there's recoil and noise through his high three-quarters slot. This caused his control and command waver earlier in his career, though he's made real improvements with throwing strikes—even within the last two months. Many Eastern League evaluators saw a reliever as recently as April and May, but his surge in pitchability led to a dominant stretch that has scouts as primed as ever to believe in Lopez's ability to start.

When he's able to get ahead in counts and stay around the zone with his pitches, there's no doubt he has the raw stuff to be a quality rotation piece. He holds a late-bursting fastball sitting at 94-96 mph throughout starts. He’ll hit 98 on the gun in several pitches throughout a game also. His power curveball is in the 80-84 range. He'll lose control of the curve, specifically when he pulls off his release point, though his improvements in throwing his breaker for strikes were a big part of his dominant June performance (1.56 ERA; 12.5 K/9). Lopez's third pitch is a split-like change in the upper-80s, showing the power arm-side action of an above-average pitch when he's able to sell it at arm-speed.

This should be fun. Reynaldo Lopez has electric stuff and he’ll be making his major league debut in a starting role. His minor league rate stats from this year don’t exactly jump off the page (a 3.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 87.3 innings across 14 starts in Double-A and two starts in Triple-A), but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Lopez struck out 109 batters in those 87.3 innings, good for 11.2 K’s/9. He’s pretty much a must play in an evenly priced game at home regardless of outcome. His stock is low so you folks in keeper fantasy leagues should scoop him up immediately. We’ll simply buy him today at a low cost for this one start.

Milwaukee +136 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates have scored three runs over their past three games and one of those games lasted 18 innings so let’s make that three runs over their past 36 innings. Over their past 20 games, Pittsburgh is hitting .240, which ranks 28th in MLB over that span, ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That does not bode well for this favorite against Junior Guerra.

Guerra has nine pure quality starts in 13 attempts this season. That's an elite percentage. His above-average swing and miss rate of 12% shows he's been able to generate whiffs against MLB hitters so we can expect the decent K-rate to continue. Guerra's luck indicators haven't had a major impact either way—xERA and skills are roughly in line with his surface ERA. Overall, Guerra has a 3.06 ERA. He has 27 K’s over his last 28 innings and at the ripe old age of 31, he’s a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year. Dude arrived late but his skills are legit.

Jameson Taillon comes off the DH (shoulder) to make this start. He is extremely unlikely to go more than five innings providing everything is working, as the Pirates look to limit his workload down the stretch. Taillon missed the last two seasons with elbow and hernia surgeries. In three starts prior to going on the DH, Taillon posted a 5.79 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. If he thrives here, good from him but the more likely scenario is that he will be watched closely and won’t be asked to go more than four or five innings. He’s also likely to give up something because he’s raw and not seasoned enough to dominate when health issues are present.

N.Y. Mets +130 over CHICAGO

Jake Arrieta is viewed as a surefire ace. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last 12 months, which are comparable to the stats posted by Clayton Kershaw during the same period (1.50 ERA, 0.73 WHIP). Arrieta is also 4-2 with a 1.65 ERA at home this year. Problem is, few starters have been as fortunate as Arrieta has been at Wrigley with his 24% hit rate, 83% strand rate, and 6% hr/f. His control also is at risk of worsening, given his 58% first-pitch strike rate, 36% ball % and a history of control issues when he was younger. Arrieta is certainly a quality pitcher that has an elite strikeout rate but hitters are catching up and laying off a lot of his pitches outside the zone now. He’s walked 15 over his last 31 innings and is in no way superior to Noah Syndergaard.

Elite control and an elite repertoire combined with his poise and youth make Noah Syndergaard one of the top three pitchers on the planet. Syndergaard has a BB/K split of 18/128 in 106 innings. Nothing more needs to be said about him because he really is that good. He’s priced like he’s Bartolo Colon here because he left his start against the Nationals on Friday, July 8, because of arm fatigue. The club added that his injury was 'not elbow-related,' even though he has bone chips in his elbow. Syndergaard was throwing between 91 and 95 mph during his final inning of work.

While the Mets and Noah Syndergaard are blaming a tired arm for Syndergaard's loss of velocity in his Friday, July 8, start, one has to wonder if there's a reason for the arm fatigue. He did not pitch in the All-Star Game and there was speculation that he might miss a start or two or three but here he is, ready to go out there and face the Cubs. We’re damn sure the Mets (or Syndergaard himself) would not put his long term value in jeopardy for one start. Therefore, Syndergaard would not be run out there if he was not feeling 100% ready to go. The fact that he is starting is all the info we need to back him here.

Chase Diamond

Dodgers at Nationals
Play: Over 9

Here we have the 52-42 Dodgers at the 56-37 Nationals. Scott kazmir has had his ups and downs this season but recently has had trouble finding the strike zone. Warm weather in Washington I expect the ball to be flying out of there tonight. Reynaldo Lopez makes his first start for the Nats where the 22 year old was solid at triple a but I believe he will have some first game jitters. 6 of Kazmir's last 8 starts have gone over the number. Early numbers indicate 83% taking the Under here I love the over to cash very easy.

Jeff Alexander

Cubs -135

I'm backing Chicago at home on Tuesday with their ace Jake Arrieta on the mound. Arrieta was not himself going into the All-Star break, but has had a 10-day layoff since his last start. Keep in mind that all 3 of his previous poor outings came on the road. Arrieta still has a dominant 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 8 home starts. The Cubs have also started to return to their early season form, winning 4 of their last 5. Chicago is 41-19 in their last 60 home games against a NL team that is averaging 4.3 or less runs/game over the last 2 seasons.

Steve Janus

Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Dodgers -115

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (LA DODGERS) - good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season. This system is 116-44 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.

Brandon Lee

White Sox -108

Chicago is going to come out pissed off and highly motivated after last night's heartbreaking 3-4 loss, which saw them blow a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th. The good news is the loss has kept the line low for today's game and created some great value here on the White Sox at basically a pick'em. Chicago will give the ball to Jose Quintana, who has a 3.18 ERA in 10 road starts. Mariners will counter with Wade Miley, who has a 5.44 ERA in 16 starts, 5.05 ERA in 7 home starts and a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 outings. White Sox are 7-1 in Quintana's last 8 starts against the AL West, while the Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 off a win.

Alex Smart

Cardinals -1½ +107

Padres starting hurler Rea has struggled on the road this season, as is evident by a bloated 5.52 ERA. The righty thrower has pitched against the Cardinals two times in his career and has been smashed around for eight runs in nine innings.Im beting he gets pounded again today. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Cards Martinez struck out 11 batters in his last start before the All-Star break, against the Brewers. He has allowed just six total runs over his last six starts along with a stingy 1.34 ERA during that period. He is in top form and will be hard to get to today, vs a very inconsistent Padre offense.

Jimmy Boyd

Tigers -137

Detroit is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Twins. The Tigers are a strong 26-17 at home this season, while Minnesota is a miserable 13-30 on the road. The Twins are really struggling at the plate right now. They have scored 2 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games and have totaled 6 or less hits in each of those games.

With the way Minnesota is struggling offensively, this is a great spot to take a chance on Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez. While he's just 3-9 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.729 WHIP in 14 starts, he's owned the Twins in his career, posting a 2.35 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 12 starts against them. Minnesota will counter with Tom Milone, who has a 5.90 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 5 road starts and has given up 10 runs on 18 hits in 8 1/3 innings over his last two starts against the Tigers.

Detroit is 14-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season and 22-8 in their last 30 after allowing 1 run or less in a win over a division rival. Minnesota is 6-22 in their last 28 after scoring 2 runs or less and 6-21 in their last 27 as a road dog of +100 to +150.

Larry Ness

Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Justin Upton’s solo HR was all the Tigers needed to beat the Twins, as Detroit moved to 7-0 against Minnesota in 2016. I had the Tigers here last night, noting the Twins’ woes against AL Central foes (excluding the Indians) and overall on the road. Monday’s defeat dropped the Twins to a 2-120 vs Kansas City, Detroit and the Chicago White Sox, while also posting an AL-worst 13-30 (minus-$1146) record on the road this season. Twins owner and CEO Jim Pohlad fired GM Terry Ryan on Monday but will that really make much of a difference?

Assistant GM Rob Antony replaces him on an interim basis but manager Paul Molitor has supposedly received assurances from Pohlad that he'll retain his job the rest of this season and into next season, regardless of whether Antony has the interim tag removed. “I'm grateful because I want to keep doing this," Molitor said. "I want to help try to be part of the solution of our team getting better and finding a way to do some things we haven't been able to do for quite a while." With this as a backdrop, Minnesota continues its three-game series at Detroit with Tommy Milone (2-2, 5.23 ERA) taking on Anibal Sanchez (5-10, 6.75 ERA).

Milone has made just eight starts this season and after failing to win ANY of his first six (team was 2-4) he has won his last two outings. That said, it’s easy to win when one’s team scores 15 and 11 runs in those games although in fairness, Milone did allow a modest three ERs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA). Milone should be confident entering this contest, as in his seven career starts against the Tigers he’s 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA (teams are 5-2). He’ll be opposed by a struggling Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was dropped from the rotation by Detroit manager Brad Ausmus but with Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris sidelined by injuries, Ausmus was forced to reinsert Sanchez into the rotation. Those efforts didn’t go well, as Sanchez allowed 12 ERs in just 8.1 innings in two losing July starts.

That leaves Sanchez with a 5-10 record and a 6.75 ERA on the season. TWO of those wins have come in relief, leaving the Tigers 3-11 in Sanchez’s 14 starts (Tigers are minus-$765 at $100/game). However, I’ll stick with what worked last night. The Twins’ record vs division opponents (see above), especially their 0-7 record vs the Tigers plus on the road (13-30, minus-$1146), speaks for itself.