Free Picks for Tuesday, July 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
New York at San Diego
Play: San Diego -108
I’m limiting the analysis of this game, because I’d rather focus on the deal made yesterday between the Royals and Padres. Kansas City is going all-in for one more playoff run before the nucleus of the team leaves town. So snaring a trio of arms that can help the team now in Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter made sense.
But I really like what the Padres got in return. Travis Wood is a throw in and since there were cash considerations included in this deal, it’s safe to assume that was to cover Wood’s contract. The lefty has had a truly awful season but maybe he relocates his prior form with the change in scenery. If not, no big deal. The two pieces I like for San Diego are lefty Matt Strahm and second base prospect Esteury Ruiz.
Strahm has upside. His arsenal is ample enough to warrant giving him a chance to become a stating pitcher for the Padres. If that doesn’t work out, Strahm should still have value out of the pen.
Ruiz is the most interesting guy in this deal. He’s only 18 but sure looks like an emerging prospect. Ruiz is putting up video game numbers in rookie ball. That’s not exactly the highest level around, so it’s not like I’m crowning him as a sure fire superstar. But he definitely is raising eyebrows and at just 18 years of age and with plenty of filling out on his currently slight frame expected, this is a kid whose stock is rising. One scouting report I read suggested his upside is something along the lines of Alfonso Soriano. Granted, there tends to often be a bit of hype with prospects, and Soriano level is shooting pretty high. But I’m definitely going to be following this youngster and he is the type of prospect the Padres need to be trying to load up on for the future.
Okay, as for tonight. The Friars missed winning Monday night by a couple of inches. Jabari Blash rifled a shot down the right field line for what would been a three-run walkoff homer, but the ball went wide of the foul pole by what was literally an inch or two. In fact, the umps asked for a review just to make sure the ball didn’t graze the foul pole.
I don’t see the Padres needing ninth inning heroics tonight. Jhoulys Chacin has been a Petco stud with an ERA of less than two and I like him to get the best of Mets righty Seth Lugo tonight. At close to even money, I’ll recommend the Padres this evening.
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -114
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Orioles. We are getting some great value here due to the fact that the Rays have lost 5 straight, but 3 of those were 1-run defeats. I'll take my chances with Tampa Bay's Jacob Faria going up against Baltimore Wade Miley. Faria is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 8 starts, while Miley owns a 5.58 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in 20 outings this season. He also comes in struggling, having allowed 12 runs on 16 hits and 8 walks in his last 2 starts (9 2/3 innings).
Mike Lundin
Kansas City at Detroit
Play: Detroit -139
The Detroit Tigers in general and Michael Fulmer in particular will be looking for revenge when they host the Kansas City Royals and Danny Duffy Tuesday night.
The Royals defeated the Tigers 16-4 at Kauffman Stadium on July 20 in a contest where Fulmer (10-7, 3.35 ERA) was chased off the mound after just 2 2/3 innings through which he was tagged with eight runs (five earned). A rare mishap for the 24 year old who has been rock solid most of the season (he ranks second in the American League with 16 quality starts).
Duffy (6-6 , 3.71 ERA) surrendered four runs on nine hits over five innings when pitching opposite Fulmer on July 20 and he is 6-7 with a 4.01 ERA against Detroit in his career.
The Royals own a six-game winning streak after beating Detroit 5-3 in 12 innings on Monday, but the Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss, and note that Royals are 3-8 in Duffy's last 11 road starts while Tigers are 10-3 in Fulmer's last 13 home starts.
Stephen Nover
Reds vs. Yankees
Play: Reds +152
This is the Yankees' first home game since July 9 following an 11-game road trip. They are hosting the lowly Reds. So you have to wonder just how focused the Yankees will be especially with a lot of young players on their roster.
One of those youngsters is rookie pitcher Jordan Montgomery. He's facing another rookie starter in Luis Castillo. Montgomery is making his 19th start and showing signs of hitting that rookie wall. His ERA in his last three starts is 6.91. The Twins got to him for six runs in six innings during his previous start this past Wednesday.
Castillo has made just six starts. His ERA is 3.86 compared to Montgomery's 4.09. I have a high regard for Castillo and his potential. He's struck out 43 in 35 innings. He's also faced much better hitting teams than Montgomery has.
Castillo has made two starts against the Nationals, two against the Diamondbacks, one versus the Brewers and one against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Nationals are No. 2 in the league in runs. Colorado is No. 3. The Diamondbacks have scored the sixth-most runs. Only two teams have hit more homers than the Brewers.
By contrast, Montgomery has faced four below average offenses during his past seven starts having gone against the Twins, White Sox, Angels and A's.
The Yankees do hold a bullpen edge, but some of that advantage is reduced by how poorly closer Aroldis Chapman has been pitching.
Darryl Tucholski
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +130
Despite Lance Lynn's success this season, the Cardinals are struggling and look primed for a lost year. The Rockies on the other hand are 7-3 in their last 10, and bring their high powered offense to the road. Charlie Blackmon has hit safely in 17 of his last 18 games. From top to bottom, the Rockies offense is a challenge.
Scott Spreitzer
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Under 8½
Lugo is using his curveball more often and he's posted a 2.60 ERA & 1.04 WHIP in his last three appearances. The righty will face a Padre offense plating less than 4 rpg at home this season. SDG will counter with Chacin, who owns one of the oddest home/road dichotomies you'll find. Chacin owns a dubious 7.35 ERA in 10 road starts, but he's virtually unhittable at PETCO where he's also made 10 starts, but with much different results. The right-hander owns a sizzling, 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and .198 BAA on the home bump. The Mets have been middle of the pack or worse in OBP and OPS in July, while the Padres own MLB's worst home batting average and second worst home OBP and OPS. We look for the hurlers to get the better of the hitters in this one and we're recommending a play on the Under between the Mets & Padres on Tuesday night.
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Giants
Play:Pirates +119
Edges - Pirates: Taillon 4-2 with 2.31 ERA team starts away this season… Giants: Bumgarner 0-6 team starts this season, and 0-2 last two home team starts in this series. With Taillon in strong KW form with 22 Ks with 4 BBs last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Jesse Schule
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8½
The Royals beat the Tigers 5-3 in extra-innings in Game 1 of this series in Detroit. We might see another pitcher's duel tonight, with both teams turning to the front end of the rotation. Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's having another fine season. Fulmer (10-7, 3.35 ERA) was rocked for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss at Kansas CIty his last time out. He almost went the distance (8 2/3 innings), allowing three runs on seven hits and striking out seven in a home win over the Royals earlier this year. He's 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts in the Motor City this season. The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy, who picked up a win against the Tigers his last time out. Duffy has quietly been having a solid season, going 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 15 starts for the Royals this year. Not bad considering that he often doesn't get the run support that he did in previous seasons. Kansas City ranks 25th in the majors in runs scored, and the Royals have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 when Duffy starts.
Vic Duke
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Over 8½
Fulmer was lit up like a torch July 20th in KC to the tune of 5 ER on 7 hits in 2 2/3 IP. KC is currently hitting really well launching 12 HRs over the last 3 games. On the other hand, Danny Duffy is vulnerable here; after all, the Tigers are driving in a healthy 5.83 RPG on a .283 BA vs lefties. Duffy is 10-4-2 O/U on the road and 5-0 O/U vs Detroit. Heavy "over" trends in this series give us a play on the "over".
Ben Burns
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8½
The visitors turn to Danny Duffy (5-6, 3.51 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits while stirking out four over five innings in a victory over these very Tigers on Thursday. Duffy’s peripherals (3.49 FIP) suggest that better times lie ahead (is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games.) Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06) who looks to rebound off perhaps the worst start of his career, allowing eight runs (five earned) off seven hits over 2.2 innings on a loss to the Royals throwing opposite Duffy last week. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fulmer, who still owns an elite 1.11 WHIP and 3.33 FIP this season (he also has a 3.15 ERA in all “night” games.) Long-term track records exhibited by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a bit of a “duel” on our hands in this one, so consider the “under.”
Chase Diamond
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Braves +141
This game features the 47-51 Braves at the 57-42 Arizona. Braves are a tough team and we get their best young pitcher in Mike Foltynewicz at a nice plus money payday here. He's had a few good starts in a row and faces off with one of my favorite young arms in Baseball but Taijuan Walker is just back from maternity leave and might have his mind else where. Good time to fade him and I think the sharps are thinking the same as only 29% are backing the road Braves yet this line seems to hold tight.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City at Detroit
Play: Detroit -140
I like Detroit to even up there series with KC on Tueday. The Tigers are sending out Michael Fulmer, who has put together quite a 2-year resume, yet he doesn't get a lot of hype beacuse he doesn't strikeout a lot of guys. Fulmer has already reached double-digit wins and owns a 3.35 ERA in 19 starts. He did have a bad outing last time out in Kansas City, but prior that he had owned the Royals, giving up just 9 runs in his previous 5 starts against them.
KC will counter with Danny Duffy, who is a solid starter, but has not been nearly as good on the road with a 4.44 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 8 starts. THe other key here is that Detroit has hit him hard of late, scoring 4 or more against them in 4 of his last 5 starts. Not a big surprise given how well the Tigers have hit left-handed pitching. They are scoring 5.6 runs/game against lefties, compared to 4.9 overall.
Jim Feist
Twins vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8½
Minnesota has a weak bullpen and faces a strong Los Angeles offense. Young starter Jose Berrios is strong at home, but sports a 4.46 road ERA. Kenta Maeda goes for Los Angeles, with the team 14-5-2 over the total when he starts. The Over is 10-4 in Maeda's last 14 home starts and when these teams clash the over is 6-2-1.
Mike Anthony
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8.5
The Cardinals offense exploded last night and I look for more runs here tonight. The Rockies are going with with Jon Gray who has a nice 3-1 record but it comes with a poor peripheral ERA at 6.19. The Cardinals offense has scored 27 runs in their last four games and we expect them to deal some more damage to Gray.