DAVE COKIN
ANGELS at ROYALS
PLAY: ANGELS
No price on this game as I’m writing this piece, but it figures to be pretty much in the tossup category, which is fine with me as far as betting the Halos is concerned.
I’m on Tyler Skaggs here. He’s finally healthy, and the talented lefty has been on fire down on the farm while rehabbing. The last two starts for Skaggs were pretty amazing. 12.2 innings, just two hits, no runs, with three walks and a mind boggling 26 K’s. Yeah, that was at AAA, but it’s not like guys at that level are automatic outs and that’s a strikeout rate that indicates Skaggs is more than ready to start firing at the big league level once again.
The Royals will send Dillon Gee to the hill, and while his numbers aren’t the worst I’ll see, they also aren’t particularly inspiring. Gee is the prototype for an end of the rotation filler. He’s occasionally capable of a really nice outings, but is simply more likely to be closer to mediocre.
The team form for these two entries also comes into play here. In spite of all their injuries, the Angels are hanging in there and have been winning games lately. At 44-55, their playoff hopes are pretty much shot but Mike Scioscia teams don’t quit and I like the way this squad is rolling right now.
The Royals are heading the opposite way. The magic of the last two seasons has worn off to some extent. KC has been a bad road team all season, but now they’re also starting to scuffle a bit at home, and they’re reeling to some extent presently. I’m not about to count the Royals out despite their current residence on the wrong side of the .500 plateau. But as of right now, they’re just not a very good baseball team.
The main focus here is Skaggs. Off the last two rehab starts, I think he’s go with material in his return to The Show, and I’ll be backing the Angels on Tuesday evening.
Rob Vinciletti
Rockies vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -1½
Baltimore should coast in this game. They are 12-0 at home with Tillman on the mound and he has a solid 1.29 era in his last 3 stats. Bettis pitching for Colorado has a 5.18 road era. Colorado has lost 12 of 15 on the road vs A.L. East teams. Baltimore is a superb home team this year and home favorites that are off a 1 run home win scoring 4 or less runs are 9-1 since 2004 winning by over 3 runs on average vs an opponent off a road loss scoring 2 or less runs with 3+ errors. Look for Baltimore to coast.
Scott Spreitzer
Nationals vs. Indians
Play: Indians -140
Danny Salazar had a slight elbow problem before the All-Star break and had a bad outing against the Yankees, but he recovered and gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings as the Indians beat Kansas City 7-3 on July 19. Salazar is 11-3 with a 2.75 ERA and Cleveland has won eight of his last nine starts. Cleveland was swept in Baltimore but the Indians are back home now where they are 26-16 and still in first place in the AL Central by 5 1/2 games. Gio Gonzalez is 6-8 with a 4.53 ERA and has won his last two starts but Washington had lost eight of his previous nine starts. The Indians have won seven interleague games in a row and they've won 37 of their last 53 home interleague games. Also, Cleveland has won 20 of Salazer's last 28 home starts dating to last season.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Astros -145
Edges - Astros: Doug Fister 9-4 team starts at night this season, and 10-6 last 16 team starts during July. Yankees: Sabathia 6.59 ERA with 1.61 WHIP last seven starts. With the visiting team 0-2 in Sabathia’s career team starts versus Houston, we recommend a 1* play on Houston.
Bob Harvey
Cubs vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9
It’s a Windy City showdown as the Cubs and White Sox continue their interleague series on the south side of Chicago.
The Cubs (59-38, 29-22 road)will have fire-balling closer Aroldis Chapman at their disposal for the second of a four-game series. Chapman came over from the Yankees for a four-player package including top prospect Gleyber Torres. Meanwhile the Chisox (48-50, 26-24 home) have recorded three straight walk-off wins for the first time in nearly 54 years.
Hendricks (9-6, 2.27 ERA) has been among the Cubs most consistent starters this season. He’s 3-0 and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 17.1 innings. Hendricks is 5-0 with an 0.72 ERA over his last seven starts but 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts against the White Sox but did not earn a decision in either meeting.
Shields (4-12, 4.99 ERA) has recorded five straight quality starts and posted a 2.10 ERA over that span. He’s 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts against the Cubs.
The Cubs are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine overall while the White Sox are 7-2-2 to the UNDER in their past 11 overall.
The Cubbies have seven of their last 10 while the White Sox are 3-7 in their past 10. Since interleague play began in 1997, 60 of the 105 meetings between the crosstown rivals have been decided by three runs or fewer.
Jim Feist
Reds at Giants
Pick: Over
San Fran is home with a strong offense and a pair of pitchers are on the mound who can't get anybody out. Reds' starter Cody Reed (0-4, 6.75 ERA) is allowing batters to hit .311 off him along with a 6.32 ERA on the road. The Over is 13-5-3 in the Reds last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. San Fran starter Matt Cain (1-6, 5.88 ERA) hasn't been able to get it going and the team is 14-5-2 over the total when he starts. Cain gave up five runs over just 2.1 innings in Wednesday's loss to Boston. The Red Sox tagged Cain for three homers in that short span. The Over is 33-16-3 in the Giants last 52 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And the Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in San Francisco.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The Giants failed to ‘stop the bleeding’ last night, losing 7-5 at home to the Reds. The loss means that San Francisco, owners of MLB’s best record at the All Star break, has now gone 1-8 since teams returned to play on July 15th. The Giants’ slump has cut their lead in the NL West to just 2 1/2 games over the hated LA Dodgers. In contrast, while the 39-60 Reds remain a last-place team in the NL Central, the victory makes them 7-3 since the All Star break, having scored 45 runs over their past seven games (6.43 per game).
Jake Peavy gave up three HRs in Monday's loss and the Giants have now allowed a major-league-high 19 HRs in their nine games since the All-Star break. "The long ball is hurting us right now," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "We just need to find a way to get a quality start." Should we expect a quality start from Matt Cain? He’s 1-6 with a 5.88 over 12 starts in 2016 (Giants are 4-8 ), after getting shelled in his first start back from a hamstring injury last Wednesday. Cain allowed five runs on six hits in just 2.1 innings at Boston, serving up three HRs (he’s allowed 11 HRs in 59.2 innings this season). Cain has pitched into the seventh inning in just TWO of his 12 starts and while the Reds are clearly a sub-.500 team, Cain owns has the majors' worst record (0-3) and eighth-worst ERA (6.66) against teams under .500 among qualifying starting pitchers.
The above hardly bodes well for San Francisco, although Cain does own a respectable 3.21 ERA in 11 career starts against the Reds. More good news comes San Francisco’s way in that Reds rookie Cody Reed is still searching for his first big-league win. He’s 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in six starts (Reds are 0-6), making him one of just SIX pitchers who remain winless this season despite making six or more starts in 2016. Like Cain, Reed has had trouble with “the long ball,” giving up nine HRs in just 30.1 innings plus opposing hitters are batting .311 against him.
Giants badly need a win and I’ll give them another try (lost with them last night, right here) on Tuesday.
Buster Sports
Reds vs. Giants
Play: Over 8.5
Both these pitchers have struggled during the 2016 season. Cody Reed (0-4, 6.75 ERA) in 6 starts for the Reds this season has been terrible on the road with a 6.32 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.659. Matt Cain (1-6, 5.88 ERA) gets the start for the Giants and he has been brutal in his last 3 starts sporting an ugly 9.39 ERA with a WHIP of 2.347. San Francisco has been hammering left-handed pitching this season with a 23-13 record. Look for the hits to be plenty by both clubs and the ball to be flying out of what is normally pitcher friendly AT&T Park.
Carmine Bianco
Dundalk vs. Bate
Play: Under 2.3
These teams actually met last season in Champions League qualifying with Bate advancing with a 2-1 aggregate over 2 legs. I'd rather have a 2 1/2 when taking an Under but the 2.3 asian split line (2 and 2 1/2) is what i'll have to go with here. I don't really anticipate Dundalk being able to get an away goal here as Bate have been efficient defensively on home soil and have registered clean sheets in 9 of their last 10 at home. I'd also expect Dundalk to take a defensive minded approach here in Leg 1 and return home with a managable result for Leg 2. Under is the play for us.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay +119
Though Tampa Bay's season has unraveled, Tuesday starter Chris Archer is pitching better lately, as indicated by his six strong innings last Wednesday at Coors Field in an 11-3 win over the Rockies. Meanwhile the bloom is off of the rose for Dodger starter Bud Norris, who has allowed 14 runs and 23 hits (including five homers) over his last four starts covering 16 1/3 IP.
Chase Diamond
Arizona at Milwaukee
Play: Arizona
Two teams who really are not going anywhere meet up as we have the 41-58 Arizona and the 42-55 Brewers. Boy has Matt Garza lost it he's off his 4th straight loss after giving up 5 runs over 5 innings and this guy had everything to play for if he would've put up good numbers he had a chance to be traded to a contender as it sits now he is stuck with the Brewers and I don't expect much motivation on his part plus the fact that I think he is shot as a starter he just doesn't have enough heat or movement anymore on his fastball and this guy gets pounded. Patrick Corbin goes for the Diamondbacks he's not much better but atleast is fighting for a chance to keep his starting job and Arizona has the better lineup. I love getting plus money here even at this small amount. Look for Garza to be out of this game by the 4th inning.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Rockies/Orioles Under 9.5
Most will see these two teams and immediately look to back the OVER, but I see great value here in the UNDER with the total sitting at 9.5. Colorado's offense isn't the same on the road and don't figure to do much scoring here against Orioles' ace Chris Tillman, who is 14-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 21 starts. Tillman has pitched exactly 7 innings and given up just 1 run in each of his last 4 starts. The Rockies will send out Chad Bettis, who is also throwing the ball extremely well at the moment. Bettis has a 2.70 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Adding even more value here is home plate umpire Cory Blaser. Pitchers have thrived with him behind the plate and as a result the UNDER is 15-4 in the 19 games he's been the home plate umpire.
RAY MONOHAN
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -118
The Blue Jays look to make it back to back wins against the Padres here on Tuesday night. Monday, they covered the 1.5 and Tuesday night should be the same.
Tuesday's starter Andrew Cashner, has been at the middle of the trade talks as the deadline approaches. It's almost certain he will be dealt, which makes for a distracting start here.
Cashner has also struggled on the road this season. He has gone 0-4 with an ERA of 6.59 in 7 starts. Going up against a talented offense doesn't give any confidence in that record or ERA improving here.
Some trends to consider. Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games. Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
With all the deadline distractions here, Cashner has a lot racing through his mind. With the Blue Jays playing well at home and Bautista back in the lineup, expecting a lopsided win from them is a solid move here.
BRANDON LEE
Astros -136
Houston is worth a look here at home against the Yankees. The Astros had their 4-game winning streak snapped with a heartbreaking 1-2 loss in yesterday's series opener against the Yankees. New York has been playing well of late, but this isn't a great spot for the pinstripes. Yankees will give the ball to C.C. Sabathia and his season has taken a drastic turn for the worse. After seven straight starts allowing 2 earned runs or less, Sabathia has allowed 4 or more in each of his last 6 starts. There's a good chance the veteran has just hit a wall and will continue to struggle the rest of the way. Houston will counter with Doug Fister, who has really pitched well of late. Fister has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off a dominant outing at Oakland, where he allowed just 4 hits in 7 shutout innings. It's also worth noting the Yankees are struggling at the plate. They are hitting just .225 as a team over their last 7 and have scored 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 games.
JIMMY BOYD
Pirates -113
Pittsburgh is showing some great value here as a small home favorite. The Pirates are playing well at the moment, having won 5 of their last 7 and are very tough to beat at home when things are going well.
Seattle will have their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound, but he's making just his second start since late May. His first start back wasn't all that great, as he gave up 5 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in 6 2/3 innings of work. It's going to take a few outings before Hernandez returns to his elite form. Pittsburgh will counter with Francisco Liriano, who is coming off one his best starts of 2016, striking out 13 with 0 walks and giving up just 4 hits in 6 2/3 innings at home against the Brewers. I look for Liriano to build off that start with another dominant outing here.
Pirates had yesterday off and that's important to note, as they are a dominant 20-8 in their last 28 following an off day. They are also 13-3 in Liriano's last 16 starts following a quality start and 16-5 in his last 21 home starts.