Power Sports
Rays vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
All things considered, this is a pretty cheap price on the home team, no? They'll host a Tampa Bay team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball and loses the DH spot from the order to boot. Not only have the Rays lost 41 of their past 59 games overall, they're just 3-7 in series openers. They are only 3-14 the L17 road games.
Dodgers starter Bud Norris is coming off B2B rocky outings on the road, but I wouldn't be too concerned about him here tonight at home. That's because he sports an excellent WHIP (0.951) in seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year. Again, he'll be facing a pretty meager offense as well, one that ranks only 25th in runs scored. His team has won 21 of its past 27 home games and is 11-5 its L16 vs. the AL here in LA.
Like every other Rays pitcher this year, Chris Archer has regressed and the results have been mostly ugly, particularly out here on the road. His ERA/WHIP are 6.37/1.635 outside of Tropicana Field. He is off a quality start, but those have been rare for the right-hander this season (just 9 in 21 total tries). I haven't even mentioned yet how TB just lost three in a row at Oakland, scoring just five runs in the process. The team is also 0-6 w/ Archer on the mound if he threw a quality start his last time out. The Dodgers generally have taken care of the weaker competition on the schedule, winning seven straight against teams w/ a win percentage below .400.
Will Rogers
Cardinals at Mets
Pick: Mets
The Mets took two of three in their series at Miami over the weekend, and they are a favorite at home in Game 1 versus St. Louis Tuesday. The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses at home to LA, and I think they'll struggle in today's series opener.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Noah Syndergaard will be on the mound for the Mets, and he's tough to beat at home in New York. Syndergaard (9-4, 2.43 ERA) allowed just one run on seven hits over 5.2 innings in a 2-1 win over the Cubs in his last outing. He's 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA in 10 starts on the road this season. The Cardinals counter with Carlos Martinez, and he's lost four of his last six starts.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Cardinals lineup is batting a combined .125 in previous meetings with Syndergaard. Matt Carpenter is 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
3. X-Factor - The Mets are 8-0 in Syndergaard's last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
Jesse Schule
San Diego vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -1.5
The Blue Jays have been playing well at home the last few weeks and have won 10 of their last 13 games at Rogers Centre. They are in a good position to continue winning there with Marcus Stroman pitching tonight.
Stroman (8-4, 4.90 ERA) will toe the rubber tonight in Toronto and he pitched a gem in his last game, giving up just one run on eight hits in eight innings along with six K's and no walks. He is 3-1 at home this year and hasn't lost a game there since May 17th.
San Diego will hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (4-7,4.79 ERA) who went 5 1/3 innings his last time out in a no decision. He hasn't had any luck pitching on the road and has an 0-4 record with a 6.59 ERA. In his last two road starts, he pitched a total of 8 1/3 innings and gave up nine runs on 11 hits.
The Padres have dropped five of his last six starts in away games and he has given up at least three runs in five of his seven road starts.
Nelly
Colorado Rockies + over Baltimore Orioles
Chad Bettis is pitching pretty well for the Rockies with eight wins and while every Rockies starter is going to have a few blowup games at home his 4.11 FIP is well below his 5.31 ERA. A .335 BABIP has been unfortunate along with nearly 35 percent of his base runners coming around to score as Bettis probably deserves much better results. His last three starts have all been effective outings and since mid-June his FIP is just 2.97 with a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chris Tillman owns an incredible 14-2 record for the Orioles but his season FIP is almost identical to that for Bettis at 4.07. Tillman has gotten away with a 3.18 ERA thanks to a high strand rate and a very low BABIP. Tillman doesn't have a great strikeout rate and being more of a fly ball pitcher is dangerous against the Colorado lineup. Despite being 18 games over .500 Baltimore is only +41 in run differential this season while Colorado is just -6 despite being five games below .500 as these teams are closer together than the standings would suggest. Baltimore had just six hits last night in a 3-2 win to open the series and despite a five-game win streak the Orioles have scored just 2.9 runs per game since the All Star break in contrast the Rockies have scored over 4.9 runs per game in that span. The Baltimore bullpen has a clear edge in this matchup but since the break the Rockies have a 3.38 bullpen ERA and that edge isn't enough to justify nearly 2:1 pricing in this pitching matchup.
Andrew Lange
Atlanta at Minnesota
Play: Under 9
You can't help but be interested in a total of 9 involving the Atlanta Braves offense. The Braves enter tonight's game at Minnesota with the league's worst SLG pct. (.350) and OPS (.652). This is a squad that is averaging only 2.8 runs per game on the highway this season. Of the 10 games they've played this season with a total of 9 or higher, only two went over the total. They face a competent starter in Ervin Santana who since a midseason swoon has been very effective. Over his last six starts, Santana flashes a 2.03 ERA -- all of which against AL competition. Santana has also been far stronger at home with above average splits of .235/.283/.377. Atlanta will go with Lucas Harrell who is nothing more than a stop-gap as the Braves continue to eye next year and beyond. He's actually pitched fairly well with a 4.24 ERA in four starts. Anything close to a quality start from Harrell gives us a good shot to go under this inflated number.
Bruce Marshall
Rays at Dodgers
Play: Rays
Though Tampa Bay's season has unraveled, Tuesday starter Chris Archer is pitching better lately, as indicated by his six strong innings last Wednesday at Coors Field in an 11-3 win over the Rockies. Meanwhile the bloom is off of the rose for Dodger starter Bud Norris, who has allowed 14 runs and 23 hits (including five homers) over his last four starts covering 16 1/3 IP.
Good Fella
Rockies TT Over 4
A nice weather pattern for us this evening at the extreme hitters ballpark that is Camden Yards. Baltimore sends out SP Tillman. He is enjoying his best season in the big leagues this year. However, he is prone to giving up the long ball & he faces a Colorado club who hits their share of them. These Rockies really excel vs RH pitching, ranking 2nd in the National League in .OPS (.796). I like this match-up here for the Rockies lineup, coupled with the tiny ballpark and nice weather pattern. I expect to see a couple of HR's by Colorado this evening & really like them to plate at least 4 runs before this game goes final. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting 9 innings of at-bats.
Bob Balfe
Brewers -110
I remember it was just a few years ago when the Brewers only lost something like 6 home games all year and now they are a bad team. I also remember Matt Garza never struggling as much as he is now. Baseball is a tricky sport that is all about momentum. The DBacks have been silent with the bats the last few games and Corbin is a big home run pitcher. All it takes is one swing of the bat to send Milwaukee out in front.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Tuesday is Detroit and Boston to hold Under the posted total.
Last night the teams mustered just 6 combined runs in the series opener to hold well Under the posted price, as Detroit continued their low-scoring July trend.
The Tigers are now on a 7-1-1 Under run their last 9 games in this month, and while Mike Pelfrey owns a season ERA close to 5, 2 of his last 3 efforts have ended up playing Under the posted price.
Steven Wright gets the ball for Boston, and he has taken a hit over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 4.05, but for the season, his ERA is a sparkling 2.67.
Boston has held Under in 8 of their last 12 games, so look for this big total to hold up tonight at Fenway Park.
Detroit-Boston to stay Low.
4* DETROIT-BOSTON UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the O's on the Run Line over the Rockies.
Baltimore made it 4 straight wins on this homestand, and 5 straight overall with last night's 3-2 win over Colorado.
Look for there to be a little more distance between the teams tonight, as O's "ace" Chris Tillman continues his stellar season.
Tillman is now 14-2 after his latest win last time out over the Yankees, and better still is the fact he has allowed just one earned run in each of his last 4 starts - each of those starts lasting a full 7 innings!
True, Chad Bettis is pitching his best baseball of the season for the visiting Rockies, but with Baltimore locked in a very competitive division chase in the A.L. East, I expect Buck's team to cash this ticket before the 9 innings are over.
3* BALTIMORE -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 90-74 run with free picks: Colorado at BALTIMORE (-1.5, -110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - In a battle for the American League's best record, I told you to take the Baltimore Orioles over the Cleveland Indians when the two wrapped up their series at Camden Yards on Sunday. I was right. Last night I was back on the Orioles on the Run Line - I was right. Tonight, I'm simply focusing on the momentum the O's are bringing and back on them again.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - While Cleveland brought in one of the best starting staffs in baseball, there's something going on in Baltimore that has the O's back on track. So now when you put the O's up against a staff like the Colorado employs, I think Baltimore could be headed toward a lengthy streak. The key is the momentum the team is riding into this series lid-lifter. The O's have won their last five by a combined final of 22-9.
2* ORIOLES -1.5
BILL BILES
Blue Jays -1.5
The Padres are in the midst of a nice record, they have hit a home run in 23 consecutive games. This is not resulting in wins however. The Blue Jays are trying to fight their way back into the playoff race and cant afford to lose to inferior teams. Take the Blue Jays in this one
DAVE PRICE
Tampa Bay Rays +121
The Tampa Bay Rays have the better starter on the mound tonight over the Los Angeles Dodgers and should not be underdogs because of it. While Chris Archer's numbers haven't been as good this season, the fact that he has 147 K's in 123 1/3 innings shows that his stuff is still there. He just struck out 11 while allowing 2 runs in 6 innings of an 11-3 win at hitter-friendly Colorado last time out. Bud Norris is 5-6 with a 5.18 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Norris is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Dodgers are 19-45 (-32.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 since 1997. The Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 6-1 in Archer's last 7 interleague starts.
CAJUN SPORTS
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago Cubs -163
The Cubs and White Sox are playing one of those interleague 2 and 2’s with the first two at the White Sox and the last two in the series at Wrigley. We like the Cubs in this situation tonight and our numbers support a play on them. Our powerful database reveals a pair of league-wide systems that are active for this game. We want to play ON MLB road favorites when their bullpen has allowed at least one run in two straight games. This system has a record of 396-278 SU for 58.8 percent winners and a profit of +3414 Units. We want to play AGAINST MLB home underdogs when their bullpen has allowed at least one run in two straight games. This system has a record of 319-478 SU and a profit of +5807 Units when playing against these home underdogs. The combination of all these factors points to one outcome so we will back the Cubs on Tuesday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels -113 over KANSAS CITY
Despite being in last place in the AL West, the Halos remain one of MLB’s most dangerous dogs (they opened as +104 oin this game) because of their ability to score runs. In fact, no team in MLB has struck out fewer times than the Angels, which means no team puts the ball in play more. That’s not a bad place to start and now the Angels will take their hacks against starter turned reliever turned starter, Dillon Gee.
Gee has made 19 appearances this season with 14 coming out of relief. He has zero quality starts in five tries. Once again, we put no value whatsoever on what a starting pitcher has accomplished in relief. Relief pitchers (other than closers) are chosen to come in specifically to face one or two batters in a specific situation. Gee is often asked to come in to face three right-handed hitters in a row. Truth is, as a starter for years, Gee was consistently mediocre. He brings a 1.54 WHIP into this game, which is horrific for a reliever. His xERA of 4.45 is also mostly in relief.
Tyler Skaggs, meanwhile, makes his first start of the year and you fantasy players looking for starters should scoop him up as fast as you can. A downtick in Skagg’s K-rate and strand percentage were minor blemishes on a nice step forward that began in March of last year with the return of his velocity. Unfortunately it all ended in mid-August with Tommy John surgery but Skaggs is back and he has wicked stuff. Skaggs has made nine starts in the minors leading up to this one and all he did was post a 1.60 ERA while striking out 56 batters over 39 innings. In his last three starts at Salt Lake City, Skaggs allowed one run while posting a 29/3 K/BB over his last 18 IP. Skaggs is still a Tommy John Surgery outpatient, and as such, he’s way under the radar and so is his upside. Skaggs’ most recent efforts suggest he’s well worth watching and he just might be the most undervalued pitcher on today’s card.
Arizona TT Over 4½
Perhaps the better way of attacking these pitchers that we know are junk is to play team totals from time-to-time because we are losing too many games when the pitcher we are attacking gets clobbered but the opposing offense also puts up a crooked number. In this evenly priced game, that’s exactly what we are going to do.
The absolute only reason that Matt Garza has a job is because the Brewers are paying him a fortune to pitch. Perhaps the most revealing thing about Garza’s profile is that there isn’t one thing that sticks out. Everything about his pitching is off-the-wall horrible. First, there is the percentage of hard-hit balls he's allowed over the past 4 years of 27%, 30%, 32%, 36%. That explains his line-drive spike. Essentially, opposing batters are just killing his pitches, and nothing good can ever come of that. In 36 innings, Garza has struck out 22 and walked 13. His swing and miss rate is 5% and the Brewers have lost his last four starts by scores of 7-1, 7-4, 5-4 and 5-3. Three of those four games were at pitchers parks in St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Washington. Garza has a WHIP of 1.76, an oppBA of .333 and an xERA of 6.74.
We were thinking of playing Milwaukee over 4½ too but changed our mind because that would mean that both teams would have to score 5 or more to cash both tickets. The more prudent play would be to go over 9½ but we'll stick with playing Arizona over as oppose to playing Arizona plus a small price. We simply don't trust Patrick Corbin and here's why:
Corbin isn’t much better than Matt Garza, at least at the moment. Corbin missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. The D-Backs reportedly planned to take a conservative approach and not bring him back until May or June and then limit his innings but that didn’t happen. Corbin was on the opening day roster and hasn’t missed a start. He’s made 20 starts overall and things are getting worse as the season progresses. In 115 innings, Corbin has walked 46 and struck out 86, however, over his last 24 innings, he’s walked 17 and struck out 18. His first-pitch strike rate over his last five starts was 48%. His swing and miss rate was down to 8% over that same span. This is a pitching that is laboring badly, as the toll of the season continues to wear his surgically repaired arm down. Corbin’s ERA, xERA and WHIP over his last six games is 7.50, 6.04 and 2.08 respectively. Perhaps we’re seeing the results of time missed and being overworked. The Diamondbacks are very aware of the situation too. Corbin will be in year two of arbitration after this season so the worse he does, the cheaper he’ll be next season. Management loves seeing him get whacked out there because EVERYTHING is about money. Dude looks to be out of gas.
Colorado +170 over BALTIMORE
Chad Bettis is not going to turn any heads or draw much market attention here. It's no surprise given his home park and rough 5.31 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Still, there are some components of his skill foundation worth buying. He has solid command and keeps the ball on the ground pretty well (51%). In his last start, Bettis generated 56% groundballs. Bettis has just 86 K’s in 115 innings but his swing and miss rate is above average at 11% and his xERA of 4.05 is rock solid when you consider that xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Bettis is absolutely worth a look at this price.
We’re not quite sure why a complete metamorphosis takes place when the Rockies hit the road but it does. One would expect their offensive numbers to decrease on the road but to the extent that it does is rather dramatic. Still, the Rockies are 22-28 on the road, they’re obviously going to win more road games and this price is another preposterous one.
Chris Tillman is Baltimore’s ace. He’s 14-2 with a 3.18 ERA but it’s not legit. Tillman is certainly serviceable but he’s priced like an ace when he is not close to having ace skills. Tillman’s BB/K split of 48/108 in 127 innings reveals his strikeout out rate is acceptable but his walk rate is not. In generating medium contact, Tillman is a bottom-10 starter and he’s worse than the MLB average in generating hard contact. Similarly, he has proved to be below-average in groundball/fly-ball ratio and GB%, as well as in FB%, the result of a 39%/40% GB/FB split.
Where Tillman has really shone is in being lucky. His hit rate this year is 25%, a very low rate for any pitcher, and especially for a pitcher who is:
Average at best in throwing strikes
Average at limiting hard-hit balls
Not particularly dominant
Is affected by control issues
At the same time, Tillman has a 78% strand rate, well above what we would expect from an otherwise average starter. If that strand % were to normalize towards 71% (league average) or so, Tillman’s ERA would climb well above 4.00 and he would likely be around 8-8 instead of 14-2. None of this is intended to make you think Chris Tillman is a bad pitcher. He isn’t. There are lots of starting pitchers in MLB far worse than Chris Tillman. But neither is he a good pitcher, despite uncommon luck with hit%, strand% and wins that make him look like a better pitcher than he is.
So what is he? He’s a pitcher who is remarkably average, with slightly above-average strikeout ability (despite no obvious strikeout pitches) and some slightly below-average other skills. He is the 2014 innings-eater, having a run of great luck.
We are specifically not declaring that Tillman will regress to norms and therefore reveal himself as the average pitcher the skills analysis shows him to be. Any analysis that says a player will regress to norm is an analysis of dubious trustworthiness. Tillman himself has shown that it's possible for a pitcher to maintain a lower-than-normal hit% and higher-than normal strand% for entire seasons. There is a school of thought that says sometimes players, especially pitchers, just outperform their skills metrics, and we have to accept that reality disagrees with even the most careful analysis. In short, the metrics might not reveal something that sets Tillman apart. That said, however, regression and a resulting decline in production are almost always the way to play this sort of hand. We stress value and we once again suggest that Tillman isn’t good enough to be priced like this. Let the chips fall where they may.
St. Louis +105 over N.Y. METS
This is the second game of a day/night DH and there’s a good chance of the Mets winning Game 1 with Noah Syndergaard pitching. There’s also a good chance of them losing Game 2 with Bartolo Colon starting. Colon favored over St. Louis is incorrect so let’s go over this one more time. While there are no guarantees of anything in sports, we’re pretty sure that there will never be another big-headed, out-of-shape, all-you-can-eat-buffet loving 43-year-old starter that throws 87.8 MPH heat 88% of the time that pitches to a 3.48 ERA four months into the season. Colon has a BB/K split of 8/14 over his last 28 innings. His swing and miss rate of 3% since the beginning of June is the lowest among all starters in the game with six starts or more over that span. His xERA of 5.95 is nearly 2½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Colon’s good fortune holding up this long is remarkable but it is showing signs of not holding up much longer. The Cubbies got to him last game and the Cardinals are likeoly to do the same here.
We could not care less about who is going for the Cardinals today, as we are going to attack Colon whenever he’s favored against anyone not named Philly (the Phillies can’t hit him). Colon is no better than a pitching machine and must rely on extreme luck to get through innings.
PITTSBURGH -119 over Seattle
We suspect that this line will drop by game time and so we are going to wait on it before pulling the trigger, as the market plays on Felix Hernandez plus a price. We’ll update this to an official play later but we are playing the Pirates and here’s why:
Francisco Liriano is 6-9 with an ERA of 4.96 after 19 starts. The culprit has been his lack of control, which we have seen from Liriano in the past. However, when he’s throwing strikes, he’s a dominant starter. He’s also a streaky one that can dominate for weeks. Liriano is coming off a 13-strikeout performance. He has 105 K’s in 106 innings. Liriano usually thrives at PNC Park and it’s not like the Mariners are killing it. In Toronto this past weekend at that extreme hitter’s park, Seattle scored twice in the opener against Marco Estrada and recorded one hit the entire game on Sunday against J.A. Happ in a 2-0 loss. Things get much tougher for the M’s against this pitcher in this park.
Felix Hernandez has huge pedigree. He has been consistently dominating for a decade and he’s just 30-years-old but Father Time takes no prisoners and neither does the toll of near 2500 innings over 10 years. For Felix Hernandez, this season is happening and for a pitcher that is used to dominating, it must be frustrating as hell. Hernandez is coming off a home start against the South Side. That was his first start since the end of May. He was tagged for 10 hits and five earned runs in 6.2 innings but only whiffed two batters. It wasn’t pretty and it could have been worse. Hernandez was not pitching well prior to that DL stint either. His fastball was topping out at only 90 mph, down nearly two mph off last year and more than that from the previous season. His K-rate is way down also. Fernandez still has an appealing ERA of 3.23 but don’t buy it, as his xERA is 4.74 and was 5.96 in his first start back. The market mostly chooses to ignore when a great pitcher of the past starts to decline. We do not and are quite aware of Hernandez's recent career trajectory. We’ll put that to use when evaluating him for the remainder of this season and we’ll try to take advantage of teh market putting too much emphasis on his great pedigree of the past.