Free Picks for Tuesday, July 4th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARLINS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: MARLINS +127
I missed with the Marlins on Monday evening. I’ll try them again here. Miami was swept in its prior series against St. Louis. Playing on teams trying to avenge a series sweep has been highly profitable this season, and the long term success rate of this angle is quite good.
I don’t recommend playing a chase system, where the bettor increases his wager in an attempt to garner an overall profit. If you want to go that route, go right ahead but I’m not putting myself in a situation where one bad set can do significant damage to the bankroll. So I will just play the Marlins as a standard play, and if they get beat again, I’ll likely try for another one unit win on Wednesday. Hopefully, it doesn’t come to that.
As for the matchup, there’s no question the Redbirds rate the chalk role with Lance Lynn throwing at home against Jose Urena. But it’s not like Lynn has been lights out lately, so he’s far from a lopsided favorite here.
This line is supposed to go up based on the ticket count as the public will be betting St. Louis. So there’s a decent chance of doing better than +127 if sharp dollars don’t show on Miami. Regardless, I’ll put my faith in an angle that has paid off handsomely all season and I will take the Marlins again in this holiday affair.
Scott Rickenbach
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Over 9½
Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel as no runs were scored until the bottom of the 8th. However, this ultra early start Tuesday is likely to play out in completely different fashion. The Mets Seth Lugo just faced Washington two weeks ago and he gave up 2 homers to the Nationals in New York. Now he faces the Nats on the road where he has given up 7 runs (6 earned) in his last two road starts which have spanned less than 12 innings. Joe Ross gets the start for Washington and I know he has pitched better recently. However, he faced the Mets two weeks ago and was hit quite hard (9 hits in 6 innings). That is nothing new as the right-hander has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 26 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Mets. I expect more of the same here and, keep in mind, the Nationals bullpen entered yesterday's action with a 5.16 ERA on the season and the Mets pen entered with a 6.06 ERA in road games this season. The over is 9-3 in Nats Tuesday games this season and the over is 7-3 in starts made by Ross this season. The over is also 7-0 in Mets Tuesday games this season and, overall, a solid 47-26 in all of New York's games on the year!
Brandon Lee
Pirates vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8.5
The books have set the total too high for the 4th of July afternoon clash between the Phillies and Pirates. These two teams combined for just 4 runs in the Phillies 4-0 win on Monday and I see runs being at a premium again. Pittsburgh sends out Jameson Taillon, who has a strong 2.97 ERA in 10 starts and has a 2.70 ERA in 5 road starts. Philadelphia will send out Mark Leiter, who has really pitched well in his first two starts, both on the road. The most impressive being his debut against the Dbacks in Arizona, where he allowed just 3 hits in 6 scoreless innings.
Stephen Nover
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets +156
The Fourth of July baseball fireworks start early today beginning with this day game.
The Mets are in desperation mode trailing the Nationals by 10 1/2 games in the NL East following a heart-breaking 3-2 loss to Washington on Monday night.
This is a far more important game for the Mets than it is for the Nationals. Seth Lugo is one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League and at this plus price I'm involved with the Mets. New York has won seven of its last 10 games. The Mets also are 10-1 in Lugo's last 11 starts.
Lugo has looked good since returning from the DL on June 11. He's made four starts, three of which were quality outings. His victories all have been on the road where his ERA is 3.38. His day time ERA is 2.63.
Washington starter Joe Ross finally has started to pitch better. But do you trust Ross? I certainly don't. He's given up five or more earned runs in half of his past 10 starts.
Then there are the bullpens. The Mets' relievers are below average. However, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the majors with an ERA above 5.00. Addison Reed has done a decent job closing for the Mets and didn't pitch Monday. So he should be available. The Nationals lack a closer. They've blown 14 saves.
I'm on the Mets knowing Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson aren't likely to be in the starting lineup. Cespedes felt a cramp in his right hamstring on the final play of Monday's game. Terry Collins probably isn't going to chance starting him. Granderson has been out with a hip injury although he did hit a pinch homer last night.
The Nationals, though, are likely to rest several of their key hitters. Washington played in the Sunday night game two days ago and this is a very early start time. Keep in mind, the Nationals are without Trea Turner. Minus the injured Turner, the Nationals' run game takes a severe hit. Turner has seven more steals than the entire Nationals team combined.
Mike Lundin
Cincinnati at Colorado
Play: Colorado -150
The Colorado Rockies are just 2-10 in their last 12 overall but they're 8-2 in their last 10 home games and won the opener of this series 5-3 on Monday. Tonight they hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (8-6, 3.84 ERA) who is 4-3 with a solid 3.21 ERA home at Coors Field.
The Cincinnati Reds are just 12-27 on the road this season and will send Homer Bailey (0-2, 27.00 ERA) to the mound. He's been tagged with 14 runs through just 4 2/3 innings of work this season since returning from elbow surgery, and I think he's in for another tough game.
Red Dog Sports
Sandnes Ulf vs. Arendal
Play: Sandnes Ulf -½
This soccer match takes place in Sweden on Tuesday. Sandnes is #4 of the 16 teams and off a 3-0 home loss to Jerv. They won their last road game. They face Arendal, who is #16 of the 16 teams, with a record of 2-9-3 (-12 goal difference).
Ben Burns
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
Boston starter David Price (3-2, 4.61 ERA) is slowly starting to resemble his former self after returning to the rotation from injury, most recently giving up three runs off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Twins on Thursday. Price has now given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Texas counters with ace Yu Darvish (6-6, 3.11) who comes in off a loss despite allowing just three runs (only two earned) off seven hits and one walk over six innings in an eventual 5-3 setback to Cleveland on Wednesday, also finishing with six K’s. Regardless, it was his 12th quality start in 17 trips to the hill this season. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that runs will be at a premium in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
San Francisco at Detroit
Play: Detroit -1½
Detroit will send out Michael Fulmer, who hasn't disappointed in year two after winning the Rookie of the Year last season. Fulmer has a 3.19 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 15 starts and has been straight dealing of late with a 2.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. He nearly had a complete game shutout in his last outing against a red-hot Royals team.
He should have no problem keeping the Giants offense in check. At the same time, the Tigers offense should be able to put up a big number. San Francisco is sending out Matt Cain, who has a 5.36 ERA in 16 starts and is 0-5 with an awful 8.31 ERA and 2.103 WHIP in 8 road starts.
Vic Duke
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
Darvish has set the tone for most games he's pitched in and he's got heavy "under" trends. Darvish, who is 1-18-2 O/U vs the ALE, has been a rock solid pitcher for Texas virtually all season with just two shaky starts. On the other hand, David Price has been throwing well and should tame the bats of Texas which carries light hitting sticks vs lefties (.223 BA). Texas is 6-13-2 O/U vs lefties and 3-10-2 O/U at home vs lefties. With this series at 4-12-1 O/U at Texas, two quality starters and respectable bullpens, "under" the call.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates vs. Phillies
Play: Pirates -139
Mark Leiter is pitching in Jared Eickhoff's spot for now and he's facing a Pirates lineup that needs a little shot in the arm and we feel Leiter will prove to be "just what the doctor ordered." Andrew McCutchen obviously had a terrific June and part of the reason is the adjustment he has made at the plate, now hitting with a much improved launch angle, lifting the ball off the ground. Jameson Taillon has pitched well since his return, including his last outing which was his best start yet. We expect another successful outing against a Philadelphia offense that ranks in the bottom-third in the league in most key offensive categories. The Phils have won just 17 of their last 61 games, while the Bucs are on a 9-2 run when Taillon throws on four days rest, the situation today. Mark Leiter allowed 3 home runs in 5 innings against Seattle last time out and we'll go against him here.
Jack Jones
Angels vs. Twins
Play: Twins -108
The Minnesota Twins have a 7-game homestand to here heading into the All-Star Break. They won last night 9-5 over the Angels to improve to 42-40 on the season. They will be motivated for a big finish here before the break to try and chase down the Indians in the AL Central.
We have two starters going in opposite directions here. Kyle Gibson has posted a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts for the Twins, while JC Ramirez has posted a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts for the Angels.
Ramirez was rocked by the Twins in his only career start against them on June 2nd, giving up 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-11 loss for a 14.55 ERA. Gibson has given up just 4 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Angels.
The Angels are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Twins are 20-8 in Gibson's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a right-handed starters. The Twins are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with Los Angeles.
Teddy Davis
Los Angeles at Minnesota
Play: Los Angeles +109
I think the Twins are false favorites here. They won yesterday's game 9-5, but I'm not convinced they can keep it going. Gibson has been struggling big him recently so don't let the 3.86 ERA his last three fool ya. In those 3 games he actually has more walks and strike outs. He has also really struggled at home with a 1-4 record and 7.08 ERA.
Ramirez is coming off a rough game, but that was against IMO the best offense right now in baseball in the Dodgers. So I will give him a pass for that game. He has had his best stuff on the road with a 5-2 record and 3.79 ERA.
John Martin
Houston vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +138
The Atlanta Braves are worth a shot here as home dogs to the Houston Astros. The Braves have won three straight coming in and have a chance to get to .500 today with a win. They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Tonight's starter is Sean Newcomb, who is one of the top prospects in the organization. He has been very impressive through four starts this year with a 1.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, allowing only 4 earned runs and 26 base runners in 24 1/3 innings. We'll back Newcomb and the Braves in this spot.
Dave Price
Orioles vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -142
The Milwaukee Brewers have a massive advantage on the mound today with Jimmy Nelson over Ubaldo Jimenez. Nelson has gone 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA in 16 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 9 home starts. Ubaldo Jimenez is 3-3 with a 7.11 ERA in 11 starts for the Orioles, including 2-3 with a 7.34 ERA in 6 road starts. The Orioles are 7-21 in their last 28 road games. The Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.