3G-Sports
Miami Marlins vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -138
The Cards need another gap hitter due to an obvious lack of some depth, and their reliance on power hitting veterans. I still think though, there is still enough skilled bats on the St. Louis roster, to come up with a handful of big hits when needed. St. Louis has been playing with confidence since June 25th. Miami just don't have anywhere near enough talent to beat St. Louis here. Miami could credit their downfall during the last 2 weeks, to a serious lack of run scoring - they have been struggling to put up 2-3 far too many times. How Chuck Hernandez, is still the pitching coach - as the Marlins are flailing along at 19th in strikeouts, is interesting. Miami hasn't been able to find their feet on the bags - and St. Louis will be all over that. St. Louis will be shooting the fireworks with a WIN here on Tuesday afternoon.
Tennis Insiders
Taylor Fritz +3 Games
This quick, low bouncing surface won't help John Isner's game to the extent you might think. Being 6'10, reaching down for a quick, low bouncing ball is extremely difficult & he'll be on the receiving end of plenty of those due to Fritz's flat hitting. Isner has struggled all season long, just 5-7 on hard court & grass. He's never been past the 3rd round at this event and service breaks will be at a premium, neither player likely to create chances, leaving all the game spread value with the young American. Fritz's return from a three month break was rocky with two consecutive defeats on the grass, but he found his rhythm during qualifying reeling off three consecutive wins. His serve & forehand will cause major damage on the surface & don't be surprised if this one reaches a deciding fifth set.
Jim Feist
Astros at Braves
Pick: Under
Houston loses the DH for this season and comes in with the #5 ranked pitching staff in team ERA. The Astros are 13-5-1 under the total in interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. Brad Peacock (2.72 ERA) goes here with Houston 8-1 under the total when he starts on the road. Atlanta is 9-1-2 under the total at home vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta lefty Sean Newcomb (1.48 ERA) has good stuff and the team is on a 12-3-2 run under at home. And the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Miami at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
Edges - Cardinals: 5-0 career team starts in this series,and 7-1 last 8 home team starts during July… Marlins: Urena 0-2 career tam starts in this series… With Lynn owning a 3.09 ERA with 1.09 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Pittsburgh -145
The Pirates were shut out by the Phillies yday, 4-0, but I expect them to bounce back on the 4th of July. In fact, it appears as if the so-called "sharp money" has already spoken here as the money line has already increased somewhat significantly this morning.
Last night marked just the fourth time the Bucs had been shut out this season. It was just the second shutout victory for Philly, who is only 7-14 the game after blanking their opponent the L3 seasons. Furthermore, we are talking about a Phillies team that has the worst overall record in MLB. Off B2B wins, the Phils make for good fade material here as they have not won three straight in almost a month. They have just two win streaks of three or more games all season. This is a team that has dropped 41 of its last 57 games overall!
In what is looking like a "lost season" for Pittsburgh, Jameson Taillon is at least supplying a solid "feelgood story." In four starts since returning from cancer treatment, he has looked sharp, particularly his last time out where he held Tampa Bay scoreless for 6 1/3 innings. The Phillies counter w/ Mark Leiter, Jr, who gave up four runs his last outing. I look at a Phillies club that isn't particularly good at anything (25th or lower in all major offensive categories, 24th or lower in major pitching categories) as one that should be faded in most circumstances, but especially if they've actually strung together wins recently.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +126 over CHICAGO
Jon Lester's next scheduled start has been moved up and as a result, he’ll pitch today. The decision to have Lester rather than John Lackey make the July 4 start has the effect of providing Lester a two-start week in the final week before the All-Star break, while reducing Lackey to a one-start week. Neither Lester nor Lackey is pitching up to historical standards. Lackey's current ERA and xERA are his worst since 2011 while Lester's ERA and xERA, although very good, are his worst since 2013. Moves like this rarely work out well and we’re not about to trust Lester on short rest in the middle of the season. Lester has solid numbers and could easily win here but his xERA of 3.86 is not superior to Chris Archer’s 3.40 xERA.
Current Rays have 133 combined AB’s against Lester while the Cubbies have never faced Chris Archer before. Give a huge edge to Archer in that regard because facing him for the first time ever is no picnic. Beneath the surface, Archer is a superstar. He continues to miss bats with ease and remains one of the premier strikeout artists in the game. His slider has been particularly dominant (46% of pitches; 19% swing and miss rate). xERA and skills confirm this is a top-shelf profile. Archer's 3.92 ERA should improve once hit % and strand % correct from their current spots. Archer has been one of the more stable starters in the game—he's on pace to be one of three starters with 200+ IP and 200+ K’s for three years in a row (Sale, Scherzer). Archer made an impressive second half run in 2016 and with a BB/K split of 33/131 in 110 innings this year to go along with a 46% groundball rate, he’s in line for another great run. A pitcher like Archer taking back a price like this is true value and must be played.
OAKLAND -1½ +120 over Chicago
Daniel Gossett has been all or nothing in his four big league starts. He has thrown a beauty in two while throwing a disaster in the other two. His lone start at home was a gem against the Astros, which is why he receives such a high matchup rating today. We also like that Gossett has walked just three batters in 21 innings. He locates well and in this day and age, locating pitches is more valuable than velocity. Gossett is truly a wild card today because of his small sample size but this has nothing to do with backing Gossett.
We’ve been fading James Shields for three years and we’re not about to stop now. Despite having a 3.86 ERA, the home town A’s are only taking back +120 on the run line and that’s very telling that the oddsmakers are not interested in taking action on Shields’ today. After all, the A’s have lost six in a row, they have a rookie going and Shields’ ERA is better than Gossett’s ERA. Despite all that, the A’s are also -157 or thereabouts. The +120 takeback on the run-line is one of the smallest home take-backs on the board today and it’s all because the books want no part of James Shields. Shields took on the Athletics just two starts ago on June 24, where he allowed six earned runs in just three innings. His 6.59 xERA is the real story here. In his last start, Shields defeated the Yanks but walked three, struck out two and fired an xERA of 6.63 in that game. Since returning from injury, Shields has walked seven in 15 frames and posted a 6.60 ERA. Throw in a 1.73 WHIP and one can get a clear picture of all the trouble that awaits this stiff every start.
MILWAUKEE -1½ +130 over Baltimore
When a pitcher in the AL East spins a two-hit, seven-strikeout performance in eight shutout innings, it will get noticed for sure and that’s the case here for Ubaldo Jimenez, who posted that masterpiece last week against Toronto. While Jimenez registered some success in the past, maddening inconsistency and weak skills says he’s going to give up some crooked numbers before he throws another masterpiece. Therefore, don’t let recency bias get the best of you. Jimenez’s 6.48 ERA stinks and do does his xERA of 5.05. He doesn’t get ahead in the count frequently, which results in a lot of walks and he doesn’t generate a ton of swinging strikes or K’s either. The end result is a lot of baserunners. In particular, lefties are really teeing off on him and the Crew have some sweet lefties in the lineup. Lastly, the Orioles look like a flustered and frustrated team. They’re playing sloppy baseball and after overachieving for three years, they are being exposed for what they are. It seems to us that no team is looking forward to or needs the break more than the O’s.
Meanwhile, the Crew are focused on ending the first half with some momentum. This team is in first place and they keep on winning games. They put the Orioles away early yesterday and could easily but up another crooked number early today. Then there’s Jimmy Nelson. Nelson has resembled an elite pitcher for two months running now. After posting an anchor-like 2.93 xERA in May, he followed that up with even better skills in June: 10.4 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9, 58% grounders and a 2.89 xERA. That top-shelf command was backed by a 14.8% swing and miss rate%, 65% first-pitch strikes and 30% ball%. Credit a big surge against lefties for his recent control gains and credit his filthy stuff for his dominating performances all season long. Jimmy Nelson is no fluke and on this fourth of July holiday,some fireworks will be going off and we’re betting it’ll be against Jimenez.
Kansas City +120 over SEATTLE
We’ve been fading pitchers off layoffs but it’s time to switch gears because the price on Danny Duffy against the Mariners and Felix Hernandez is too good to pass up on. Duffy’s pure quality starts percentage over the past two seasons including 11 starts this year is the fifth best in MLB over that span. It’s a rare day when Duffy doesn’t have a strong outing. This post-hype prospect finally stayed healthy and delivered on his promise last season. His new focus on pounding the strike zone led to vastly improved control, which was backed by his first-pitch strike rate. Duffy’s swing and miss/K-rate has surged, in part, due to his upgraded slider (20% swing and miss rate). He even got his fly-ball rate well under control in the 2nd half of last year and it has carried over into this year. Duffy was on the 10-day disabled list with a Grade 1 oblique strain but will return to the rotation here. If health cooperates, this is a 3.00 ERA pitcher that is starting for one of the hottest teams in the majors right now.
By contrast, Felix Hernandez throwing gems may never happen again. Yeah, he may throw the odd one, like every starter in baseball but for the most part, Hernandez has a tired arm and weak skills. His once strong skills are not coming back. Hernandez has only one pure quality start to his name in seven starts this season. Since coming off of the disabled list, he has made two starts, where he allowed three earned runs over six innings in each but those were luck fueled starts. Right-handed batters are destroying him this season with a 1.044 OPS. Hernandez’s swing and miss rate (7%) continues to fade and now his once lofty K-rate has turned to being sub-par. His performances against lefties also continues to deteriorate. Despite being in his 13th season, Hernandez clocks in at only 32 years-old. With two more years on his contract, Hernandez will retain his rotation slot but the heyday is over and you will now pay for backing his name.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Red Sox +105
The Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers face off on Tuesday, and as underdogs the Red Sox have a lot of value. On the mound for the Red Sox is David Price who hasn't been great since coming back from injury, but this is a perfect game for him to bounce back.
He has basically been giving up three runs in each start since he has come back, which for a lot of pitchers you would be thrilled with but with David Price, more is expected. I think that the Red Sox will be able to get to Yu Darvish early and that will force him to struggle and leave the game early. Some trends to note. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Red Sox are 9-2 in Prices last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Handicappers Hub
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Red Sox +117
The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team in the MLB right now and I love them in this spot against Yu Darvish who is just 3-3 with a 3.65 ERA at home this season. David Price is on the bump for the Sox and I think that he will strive today and strike out a lot of aggressive Rangers and look for Sox offense to stay hot and get the W on the road.
Jeff Benton
Comp winner for the 4th of July is the Blue Jays and Yankees to land Under the total.
CC Sabathia returns to the Yankees rotation after spending the past few weeks on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. Sabathia has worked his last 6 starts with just 2 runs or less allowed, and the Under stands at 6-1 the last 7 times he has started for the Pinstripers.
JA Happ has found his form, as he makes this start with 5 of his last 7 trips to the hill showing 2 runs or less allowed.
The Under is 3-1 the last 4 times Happ has started, and is 7-2-3 overall the last dozen starts he has made.
Based on the pitching stats for Happ and Sabathia, I will look Under the total in this Blue Jays-Yankees matinee.
2* TORONTO-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free winner is the Angels, who are in from Anaheim to play the Minnesota Twins. And I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: JC Ramirez and Kyle Gibson.
This is a pitching rematch from a month ago, on June 2, as Gibson and the Twins went into Anaheim and beat the Halos and Ramirez. Now it's time for revenge. It was his only career start against the Twins, and the right-hander allowed seven runs over 4.1 innings.
Ramirez is in after taking his sixth loss of the season, as he allowed six runs (five of themearned) in 5.2 innings in his last start, against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday.
He is due for a big game, and will be at his best today. Besides, do you see the price? For as bad as Ramirez has been, why is this number so low? It's an indicator that the Twins are a trap.
Gibson went 5.2 innings and allowed five runs on six hits in a loss to the Red Sox his last time out, and might be a little overzealous with this one today.
Take the Halos.
5* ANGELS
Brad Wilton
Tuesday's comp play is the same as Monday's, the Boston Red Sox.
The Sox have taken control of the A.L. East, as they have now won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 heading into tonight's contest. Boston has also won 5 in a row over Texas, and 6 of the last 7 series meetings overall versus the Rangers.
Texas is on a 2-6 slide, and starter Yu Darvish is 0-2 the last 3 times he has started.
Boston starter David Price stands at 2-1 for his last 3 starts.
Have to side with Boston.
4* BOSTON
Executive Sports
Los Angeles at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -108
Twins back home now after an 11 game road trip. They won in their first game back home yesterday over the Angels, and it looks like today they'll get win #2 back home. Minnesota has scored 22 runs in their past 4 home games, and the Angels have a losing record vs. the Central Division at 9-13.
Oskeim Sports
Cincinnati at Colorado
Play: Colorado -149
Cincinnati right-hander Homer Bailey has had a difficult time since returning from the disabled list last month. Indeed, the talented hurler has allowed a combined 14 earned runs on 12 hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings of work, a span covering two starts. Cincinnati's bullpen provides little comfort with a 4.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season.
Meanwhile, Colorado southpaw Kyle Freeland toes the rubber with a 3.84 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 4.87 xFIP and a 5.01 SIERA across sixteen starts. While those results are not awe-inspiring, Freeland has been significantly better at Coors Field this season. The 24-year-old owns a 3.21 ERA, 3.70 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP at home compared to a 4.53 ERA, 5.84 FIP and a 5.62 xFIP on the road.
Freeland should have continued success at Coors Field against a scuffling Cincinnati lineup that is averaging just 4.3 runs per game on the road and 4.2 runs per game versus left-handed starters.
In contrast, Colorado's potent offense is averaging 5.8 runs per game at home (.343 OBP; .823 OPS) and 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters. Let's also note that the Rockies' bullpen has posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.11 ERA over the last seven games.
From a technical standpoint, Cincinnati is a money-burning 20-47 in its last 67 games versus left-handed starters, 19-47 on the road versus .501 or greater opposition, 5-22 in its last 27 road affairs, 3-9 during game 2 of a series, 4-12 following a loss, 0-9 in Bailey's last nine starts during game two of a series, 1-7 in Bailey's last eight starts versus teams with a winning record and 0-4 in his last four outings overall.
The Rockies are 8-2 in their last ten home games, 11-3 in their last fourteen games following a win, 5-0 in their last five home tilts versus .499 or worse opposition and 5-2 in Freeland's last seven starts against teams with a losing record.
Colorado is also 33-14 in the last 47 home games in this series, while Bailey is 2-5 in his last seven starts against the Rockies. Colorado is 9-3 in its last twelve home affairs with umpire Bill Miller calling balls and strikes.
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES (-105) over Toronto
We’ve hit another free winner here yesterday on the Yankees, running our record to 6-1 the last seven days and today we’ll jump back on the Bronx Bombers. CC Sabathia has found his groove and has posted an impressive 0.49 ERA in his last three starts. What’s more, he is 16-9 in his career against the Jays, who have struggled against left-handed starters all season, going 6-15 (-12.8 units). Yankees roll.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -1.5
The Dodgers have one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound and a rock solid bullpen if needed. Los Angeles is the best slugging percentage team in the National League and I believe it will take just one big inning to put this one out of reach for Arizona. The money line is obviously way to high to play so lets go with the run line.