Will Rogers
Angels at Twins
Play: Over 9.5
The set-up: The 43-44 Los Angeles Angels are very unlikely to catch the Houston Astros in the AL West (trail by 15 games) but they have managed to stay in the wild card race despite the absence of Mike Trout. Trout is expected back after the All Star break and LA is hoping to maintain its position in the final stretch before the reigning American League MVP returns but needs to snap out of a current stretch which has seen them lose four of its last five games. That includes a 9-5 loss Monday at Minnesota, as the Twins won for just the third time in nine contests in the series opener of this three-game set. The Twins approach the All Star break at 42-40 , tied with the Royals, as both teams sit 2 1/2 games back of the Indians in the AL Central.
The pitching matchup: JC Ramirez (7-6 & 4.60 ERA) gets the call for the Angels and Kyle Gibson (4-6 & 6.11 ERA) for the Twins. Ramirez has made it past the sixth inning just once in his last six outings, allowing 24 ERs and nine HRs over 30 2/3 innings in that span, which began with a turn against Minnesota on June 2 (he's 2-3 and the Angels 3-3 with Ramirez posting a 7.04 ERA). He gave up seven runs over 4 1/3 innings in that meeting with the Twins, his only career start against them. Gibson has gone 0-2 in his last three outings, permitting nine runs over 16 1/3 innings (4.96 ERA), after winning his previous four decisions over a five-start span. Gibson has not pitched well in 2017, lasting at least six innings just three times in 14 starts on the season. He owns an awful 1.78 WHIP to go along with his plus-6.00 ERA and opponents are batting .317 against him. Gibson is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA over seven career starts against the Angels (teams are 3-4).
The pick: No reason to think either starter will have much success in this game, so play the over.
Doc's Sports
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +126
The Kansas City Royals head to Safeco Field on Tuesday, July 4, 2017 to take on the Seattle Mariners. The expected starting pitchers are Jason Vargas for the Royals and Felix Hernandez for the Mariners.
The odds for this matchup have Kansas City at -139 and Seattle at +129. The Royals have a 38-39-4 over/under mark and a 42-39-0 run line record. The Mariners are 39-44-0 against the run line and have a 39-40-4 over/under record.
Valuable Kansas City Royals Betting Trends
The Kansas City Royals are 38-39-4 against the over/under
The Kansas City Royals are 42-39-0 against the run line
Important Seattle Mariners Betting Trends
The Seattle Mariners are 39-40-4 against the over/under
The Seattle Mariners are 39-44-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Royals have a 41-40 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jason Vargas has a 12-3 record with an earned run average of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.12. He has 74 strikeouts over his 101.1 innings pitched and he's given up 89 hits. He allows 7.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.48. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.22 and they have given up 271 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .254 against the bullpen and they've struck out 260 hitters and walked 121 batters. As a team, Kansas City allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 12th in the league in team earned run average at 4.26. The Royals pitchers collectively have given up 720 base hits and 342 earned runs. They have allowed 89 home runs this season, ranking them 27th in the league. Kansas City as a pitching staff has walked 271 batters and struck out 624. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.37 and their FIP as a unit is 4.25.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Kansas City is hitting .251, good for 19th in the league. The Royals hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .303, which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 20th in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Lorenzo Cain is hitting .286 with an on-base percentage of .359. He has 84 hits this season in 294 at bats with 27 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .449 and an OPS+ of 111. Mike Moustakas is hitting .270 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .306. He has totaled 78 hits and he has driven in 49 men in 289 at bats. His OPS+ is 118 while his slugging percentage is at .547. The Royals have 689 hits, including 133 doubles and 98 home runs. Kansas City has walked 193 times so far this season and they have struck out 606 times as a unit. They have left 501 men on base and have a team OPS of .717. They score 4.15 runs per contest and have scored a total of 336 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Seattle has a 41-42 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.66, Felix Hernandez has a 3-2 record and a 1.53 WHIP. He has 33 strikeouts over the 38.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 52 hits. He allows 12.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.16. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.45 and they have given up 267 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the Mariners bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 259 batters and walked 106 opposing hitters. As a team, Seattle allows 8.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.6. The Mariners pitchers as a team have surrendered 725 base knocks and 376 earned runs this season. They have given up 126 home runs this year, which ranks 2nd in Major League Baseball. Seattle as a staff has walked 263 hitters and struck out 593 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.34 while their FIP as a staff is 4.92.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .264, good for 6th in the league. The Mariners hold a .418 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .335, which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 9th in MLB with 9.0 hits per contest. Nelson Cruz comes into this matchup batting .287 with an OBP of .370. He has 79 hits this year along with 59 RBI in 275 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .502 with an OPS+ of 134. Robinson Cano is hitting .284 this season and he has an OBP of .341. He has collected 82 hits in 289 at bats while driving in 60 runs. He has an OPS+ of 126 and a slugging percentage of .505. The Mariners as a unit have 749 base hits, including 142 doubles and 93 homers. Seattle has walked 271 times this year and they have struck out on 659 occasions. They have had 568 men left on base and have an OPS of .753. They have scored 4.86 runs per game and totaled 403 runs this season.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday is on the Chicago White Sox catching a big number in Oakland against the Athletics tonight. And be sure you're listing both scheduled starting pitchers, as I like James Shields over Daniel Gossett. These two met less than two weeks ago, on June 24, when Gossett and the A's beat the White Sox with Shields on the mound.
Now the veteran right-hander will be pitching for revenge.
Shields is in after winning for the first time since April 6, as he allowed just two earned runs over a season-high 6.1 innings against the New York Yankees on Thursday. While I know he's been tagged for seven home runs over his last 31.2 innings of labor, Shields also has 26 strikeouts. He'll be dealing today.
Gossett toes the slab after suffering his third loss in four starts, last Thursday in Houston, which tattered him for five runs in five innings. He surrendered seven hits, including two home runs. He may get chased early today.
Take Chicago in this one.
1* WHITE SOX
Eric Schroeder
After nailing the St. Louis Cardinals last night in blowout fashion, over the Miami Marlins, I'm rolling with the Atlanta Braves for my free winner on Tuesday, as they're going to shock the Houston Astros.
While Houston may be the best team in baseball - record-wise - the Braves are coming on strong in the National League East. Atlanta has won three in a row and seven of 10, and it got to enjoy a day off after winning in Oakland over the weekend.
Now rested, the Braves will celebrate the Fourth of July with a win over the visiting Astros. I'm not going to bother listing pitchers, as both are extremely hot at the moment and will likely keep this total low. Instead, I'll just count on Atlanta's momentum.
Let's take a shot with the home pup here.
4* BRAVES
OC Dooley
Blue Jays -105
At most offshore locations the Yankees opened as a rather substantial home favorite (-115) so the mere fact this line has moved towards a struggling visitor speaks volumes. Not only have the Blue Jays been outscored by a combined 28-to-5 count the past three days, they are on a longer term 2-7 skid. However today's starter J.A. Happ went 3-0 against the Yankees last year (2.14 ERA) and more importantly Happ long term is a spectacular 16-4 in DAY games such as this. As already stated the offshore line has moved "against" the Yankees even though C.C. Sabathia prior to injury (0.90 ERA in most recent six trips to the mound) was literally untouchable. But with Sabathia having ZERO rehabilitation starts before today's activation, the struggling Yankees bullpen comes into play and just last night Toronto scored twice in the ninth inning against closer Aroldis Chapman
Bruce Marshall
Royals at Mariners
Pick: Royals
Big day for Kansas City, which gets Danny Duffy back into the rotation after missing the past five weeks due to injury. In that [period of time the Royals have made a move from as much as eight games under .500 now to 42-40, and full of momentum into the second half of the season. Felix Hernandez has not been overwhelming since returning from the DL for the Mariners.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco at Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Giants have won six straight, but I think their luck is about to run out here in Detroit on the 4th of July. Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's coming off one of his best starts of the season. Fulmer (7-6, 3.19 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits, striking out seven over 8 2/3 innings in a win at Kansas City his last time out. He was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 starts at home last year, and he's 4-2 with a 4.18 ERA in eight starts at home this year. The Giants hand the ball to Matt Cain, who has really been roughed up on the road. The 32 year old is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA in eight starts away from San Francisco. He's also 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in five starts in day games. The Giants have lost five of their last six interleague games, and they are just 8-22 in their last 30 road games with Cain as a starter.
MIKE ANTHONY
Los Angeles vs. Minnesota
Play: Los Angeles +108
LA is going to get the best out of their team and their guys will get them in better situations where they can get their strong pitching on a roll again. A game here vs a mediocre team like Minnesota is just what they need. There is also a really tough and underrated hitter in Andrelton Simmons - across their lineup that is feared to get extra bases at any time. Minnesota have no actual use for Max Kepler in the field - and they really have no pitching staff either. Kyle Gibson has been forced to pitch a little different the last couple of showings - but most of the time he just has not had great stuff that is really hard to get contact on. At 24th in the majors - their ERA is nothing that is going to keep the bats of LA hesitant to swing.
CHASE DIAMOND
Tampa Bay vs. Chicago
Play: Under 7.5
This game features the 43-41 Tampa Bay Rays and the 41-41 Cubs. Chris Archer has a ton of talent but has not pitched great lately and I expect him to rise to the occasion today against the Cubs. Jon Lester goes for the Cubs and has been so-so this year but I think you will see a big pitchers dual today. 9 out of the last 10 games for the Cubs have gone under and 4 of the last 5 rays games have gone under and the last time out the Rays only managed one run.
PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -280
Today we have 4 major sports betting systems active on this play sports at least a 10% roi in a sample of 200 or more games per system. In addition, we have the PCG 2017 MLB Raw Numbers (now at 502-434 +91.53 units) in agreement on this one.
Wunderdog
Baltimore @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -152
The Baltimore offense has been a big disappointment, #23 in runs scored and #26 in on-base percentage. And the pitching has been worse, #29 in ERA (5.07) - only the Reds are worse. The Orioles go with aging Ubaldo Jimenez (6.48 ERA), who has a losing road record while walking 20 in 46 road innings, along with 44 hits allowed. Baltimore is on a 7-21 run away from home, plus 40-93 away after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span. The Orioles are also 8-21 against a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is home, #8 in runs scored on offense, third in homers, and the pitching staff is #12 in team ERA. The Brewers pounded Baltimore yesterday, 8-1. Starter Jimmy Nelson (3.43 ERA) has a 2.64 ERA in nine home starts and has at least 10 strikeouts in four of his last seven outings. Nelson went 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in six June starts, and his 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA in his last 11 starts. His 50-strikeout month in June was the second most in franchise history. Milwaukee is 15-5 as chalk of -110 or higher this season, and this is a great situational spot for the home team.