Free Picks for Tuesday, June 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -1½
The Nationals let one get away last night but look for them to bounce right back tonight. Of course I won't lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line but I do feel there is excellent line value here with the Nats on the run line. By laying the 1.5 runs we get a very low price (currently -115) on Washington and, certainly, they should win this one in a rout. The Braves are starting R.A. Dickey and the knuckler tends to struggle when he's throwing into the wind and that is expected to be the case tonight in DC. Also, Dickey was fortunate he allowed just 2 earned runs when he faced the Nationals earlier this season as he did allow 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings in that start. Though he's coming off of a strong start that was a against a bad Phillies team. Now Dickey faces a tough Nationals lineup and he is unlikely to have much run support here. That's because the Nats are starting Joe Ross and he is off of a 4 hit gem where he allowed just 1 earned run and no walks while striking out 12 in 7 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA in his road starts this season. The Nationals are 3-1 in the 4 home starts Ross has made this season. Washington is 7-2 this season in Tuesday games and, even with last night's tough loss, the Nats are 26-10 in night games on the year. The Braves are 21-36 in Tuesday games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for a home rout here as the Nationals bounce back.
Brad Diamond
Royals vs. Giants
Play: Under 7½
Both clubs show off a day of rest, KC traveling from San Diego, San Francisco retaining home field after stopping Minnesota. The Royals bring vet lefty Vargas (8-3, 2.18) to the hill who has a nice 3-2 mark (2.78) in road outings this season. San Francisco uses left-hander Blach (4-3, 3.53) after the youngster was hit around out in Milwaukee. But, we remind you, the hurler has a super 3-0, 1.87 ERA at the Stick. In the only two meetings this season out in KC, Vargas dropped a heartbreaker to lefty Bumgarner 2-0. With the Giants/Blach 5-1 UNDER at home, and KC 8-1 UNDER in Vargas' road starts.
Cappers Club
Mariners vs. Twins
Play: Under 10½
The Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners face off on Tuesday and with two hot pitchers coming in the under has a ton of value.
If you just take a quick look at Kyle Gibson's season stats they look terrible, and they are part of the reason why the total is so high.
But if you examine them closer he has been pitching really well since getting called back up from the minors. In his last three starts he has only given up a total of five runs. In his last start against the Mariners he went six innings giving up five hits and one run.
Christian Bergman is on the mound for the Mariners and he too pitched well in his last game against the Twins. He went five innings giving up four hits and one run.
Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Under is 5-1-1 in Mariners last 7 road games.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play:Rockies +110
Edges - Rockies: Chatwood 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP away as opposed to 7.03 ERA and 1.75 WHIP home this season, and 4-1 last five team starts during June… Pirates: Cole 10.73 ERA last four starts, and 0-4 last four home team starts during June… With the Pirates the worst team in MLB on Tuesdays (1-8 ) this season, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Frank Jordan
Milwaukee vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -142
Milwaukee and St. Louis play an afternoon make up game from an earlier rain out. St. Louis is throwing Lance Lynn who started 4-1 and now 4-3 as the Cardinals are 0-5 in his last five starts and he is 0-2. Lynn hasn't pitched poorly allowing just 10 runs in those five starts, just not enough offense scoring just 14 runs and the pen isn't helping out either. Lynn has pitched strong at home with 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA in four games and has a .224 batting average against during day games. Lynn is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA against Milwaukee allowing just three hits in six innings in that starts. Milwaukee is countering with 4-3 Jimmy Nelson who has an ERA of 3.45 ERA. Nelson has had quite the mixed results this year, but gotten better of late. Nelson has a higher ERA on the road at 4.22, but is 2-0. St. Louis got the better of Nelson in his first outing against the Cardinals taking the loss allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and six walks. Look for the Cardinals to be patient against Nelson once again and take free paces while getting the key hits with guys on winning 5-3 in this first game of a double header.
Rob Vinciletti
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9
This game fits a perfect totals system that has gone over all time times since 2004 and plays over for road dogs like Tampa off a -200 or higher home favored win with 1 or no errors vs an opponent off a road win. These games average 11.5 runs. Faria is in for Tampa making the road start and he will oppose Estrada who has lost 6 straight yo Tampa and has been hit hard against them. Estrada has a 7.03 era in his last 3 overall and has pitched over in 3 of the last 4 at home. Tampa has pitched over in 7 of 8 on the road with a 9 to 9.5 run total. Look for this game to go over the total tonight.
Jim Feist
Royals at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a good pitcher's park and Kansas City loses the DH for this series. Kansas City can't hit, #29 in baseball in runs scored and the team is 10-4 under the total after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Starter Jason Vargas (8-3, 2.18 ERA) is their best starter, and the Under is 16-5 in Vargas' last 21 starts overall. San Francisco has no offense, either, #28 in runs scored. Starter Ty Blach (3.64 ERA) has very good stuff and has a 1.75 ERA at home. And the Under is 20-9-1 in the Giants last 30 home games.
Bryan Leonard
Dodgers vs. Indians
Play: Dodgers -157
Obvious huge starting pitcher edge for LA here as Kershaw grades out at 36% better than an average MLB starter, while Bauer sits at 5% better than average. While the Cleveland bullpen is excellent in the back end the Dodgers entire bullpen rates 11% better. Defensively LA rates 31% better than the Tribe. The hitting numbers favor the Dodgers in 2 of 3 categories including a 10% edge in the righty/lefty matchups.
Cleveland has struggled at home all season while the Dodgers when healthy could have the most talented team in baseball. Rare chance to back Kershaw at this price
Will Rogers
Chicago at New York
Pick: New York
The set-up: The Cubs' road woes continued last night at Citi Field, as Chicago lost 6-1 to the Mets. The defending champs have now lost nine straight away from "The Friendly Confines" The Mets have won four straight on the strength of dominant pitching, as New York pitchers have allowed only a single run in each of the team's last four wins. Jay Bruce continued his recent hot streak by going 3-for-3 and hitting his 17th HR plus and Asdrubal Cabrera homered twice. Chicago has now scored only 13 runs in its nine-game road skid, as the teams square off for the second of this three-game series, tonight.
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (3-4 & 4.13 ERA) goes for career win No. 150 tonight for the Cubs and will be opposed by New York's Zack Wheeler (3-3 & 3.45 ERA). Lester threw his first complete game of 2017 against San Francisco on May 23 but has gone 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA over three starts since (Cubs are 1-2). Lester is 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA in six starts against the Mets (teams are 4-2). Wheeler has been a bright spot in what's been a shaky New York starting staff, having allowed more than two runs only once in his last seven starts, and that was a quality start at Pittsburgh in which he gave up three runs over six innings. He was excellent last Wednesday at Texas, limiting the Rangers to one run on six hits over seven innings, before settling for no-decision. Wheeler has been dominant in two career starts against the Cubs but both came back in 2014 (1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings!).
The pick: I guess the Cubs will finally win a road game sometime but the Cubs' bats have been eerily silent on the road (again, just 13 runs scored in those nine straight losses). Meanwhile, New York starters have allowed one run or fewer in six straight games. The starters have compiled a 0.87 ERA (four earned runs in 41 1/3 innings) during the streak. Cubs lose, Cubs lose!
Rocketman
Oakland at Miami
Play: Miami -120
The Oakland A's travel to Miami to take on the Marlins on Tuesday night. Oakland is 27-36 SU overall this year while Miami comes in with a 27-35 SU overall record on the season. Jharel Cotton is 3-6 with a 5.21 ERA overall this year and 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA his last 3 starts. Jose Urena is 4-2 overall this year and 2-0 his last 3 starts. Oakland is 9-23 on the road this year where they are scoring only 3.7 runs per game. Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Oakland is 12-27 last 3 years and 2-6 this year when playing with a day off. Oakland is 5-15 this year on the road when the money line is -125 to +125. We'll recommend a small play on Miami tonight!
Brandon Lee
Royals vs. Giants
play: Giants -109
I'll gladly take my chances on San Francisco in this spot. The Giants are getting zero respect here at home against a Royals team that is a mere 11-18 on the road. For me, I just think there's too much value here with San Francisco sending out Ty Blach. This guy has been spectacular at home this season with a 1.87 ERA in 5 starts. He had a bad start last time out, but it was on the road against a good Brewers offense. While the Royals come in swinging a hot bat, they are far from a good offensive team. KC is averaging 3.8 runs and hitting .238 as a team on the season. It's also been a wise move fading the Royals when priced like they are today, as KC is a mere 4-12 this season in road games with a money line of +125 to -125.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Yankees -128
I'll be the first to admit that I thought C.C. Sabathia was never going to pitch like an ace again, but there's no denying he's a different pitcher in 2017. Sabathia enters with a 7-2 record to go with a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 12 starts (10-2 team record). He's been even better on the road, posting a 2.92 ERA in 7 road starts. He also comes in red-hot, having gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. While not elite numbers, that's too good to pass up on when you factor in the odds here, not to mention the Yankees are rolling right now. New York is riding a 6-game winning streak, where they have totaled 10 or more hits in all 6 wins.
The Angels have played better than I expected since Trout's injury, but are still a mere 5-6 in their last 11. LA will send out J.C. Ramirez, who is in a funk right now. In his last two starts he's given up 11 runs on 18 hits in just 9 1/3 innings of work. That's not the form you want to be in, facing this Yankees offense. It's not just the offense that is clicking for New York. The Yankees bullpen has been on top of their game and that's worth noting. The Yankees are 17-1 this season when they come into a game with a bullpen ERA of 2.00 or less over their last 5 games.
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +105
U.S. Cellular Field is the site of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, June 13, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Alec Asher for the Orioles and Derek Holland for the White Sox.
Baltimore opens at +100 while Chicago opens at -110. The Orioles have a 32-27-2 over/under record and a 28-33-0 run line mark. The White Sox are 32-29-0 against the run line and have a 29-29-3 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 32-27-2 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 28-33-0 against the run line
Important Chicago White Sox Betting Trends
The Chicago White Sox are 29-29-3 against the over/under
The Chicago White Sox are 32-29-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 31-30 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Alec Asher has a 2-4 record with an earned run average of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.26. He has 34 strikeouts over his 41.1 innings pitched and he's given up 40 hits. He allows 8.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.65. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.21 and they have given up 235 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .265 against the bullpen and they've struck out 207 hitters and walked 87 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.76. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 596 base hits and 290 earned runs. They have allowed 84 home runs this season, ranking them 8th in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 228 batters and struck out 445. They have walked 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.50 and their FIP as a unit is 4.85.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .250, good for 13th in the league. The Orioles hold a .421 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .305, which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 8.8 hits per game. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .281 with an on-base percentage of .332. He has 61 hits this season in 217 at bats with 34 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .521 and an OPS+ of 126. Mark Trumbo is hitting .256 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .318. He has totaled 62 hits and he has driven in 29 men in 242 at bats. His OPS+ is 92 while his slugging percentage is at .397. The Orioles have 534 hits, including 101 doubles and 86 home runs. Baltimore has walked 160 times so far this season and they have struck out 547 times as a unit. They have left 406 men on base and have a team OPS of .726. They score 4.39 runs per contest and have scored a total of 268 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Chicago has a 26-35 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.99, Derek Holland has a 4-6 record and a 1.43 WHIP. He has 56 strikeouts over the 67.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 68 hits. He allows 9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.6. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.42 and they have given up 149 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .205 against the White Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 215 batters and walked 74 opposing hitters. As a team, Chicago allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 17th in the league in team earned run average at 4.26. The White Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 486 base knocks and 252 earned runs this season. They have given up 80 home runs this year, which ranks 10th in Major League Baseball. Chicago as a staff has walked 211 hitters and struck out 465 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.31 while their FIP as a staff is 4.60.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .256, good for 11th in the league. The White Sox hold a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.7 hits per contest. Jose Abreu comes into this matchup batting .278 with an OBP of .336. He has 66 hits this year along with 34 RBI in 237 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .464 with an OPS+ of 117. Avisail Garcia is hitting .332 this season and he has an OBP of .371. He has collected 75 hits in 226 at bats while driving in 42 runs. He has an OPS+ of 149 and a slugging percentage of .549. The White Sox as a unit have 533 base hits, including 88 doubles and 66 homers. Chicago has walked 152 times this year and they have struck out on 508 occasions. They have had 389 men left on base and have an OPS of .720. They have scored 4.39 runs per game and totaled 268 runs this season.
Jack Jones
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play:Rockies +108
I cashed the Pirates yesterday behind Jameson Taillon, but I'm fading them today against the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies are the better team with the better starter in this matchup, and we're getting an underdog price to boot.
This entire Rockies staff has been underrated this season. Tyler Chatwood fits the bill, especially on the road where he has gone 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Chatwood has also posted a 1.50 ERA in one career start against Pittsburgh.
Gerrit Cole is an absolute mess right now. He has gone 1-1 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 18 earned runs, 6 homers and 31 base runners in 14 2/3 innings. Now he's up against a potent Rockies lineup that is scoring 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.
The Rockies are 23-9 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Colorado is 15-6 in Chatwood's last 21 road starts. The Pirates are 8-17 in Cole's last 25 starts. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in Cole's last nine home starts vs. a team with a winning record.