Teddy Davis
Chicago at New York
Play: Under 8½
I see the value in this game with the Under. Lester isn't in great form right now, but you have to expect a good pitcher like him to bounce back. Also the Cubs offense just isn't clicking right now. In the last 5 games they have only had over 5 hits one time! The Mets don't have a very potent offense either only averaging just a hair over 4 runs a game and against lefties they average 3.9.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +144 over TORONTO
With a reputation of consistently out-pitching his skills, Marco Estrada has been on our fade radar for at least a couple of years now but you may have noticed we have not faded him as much this year. That’s because his skills this year are actually better than ever in terms of strikeouts. In fact, Estrada has struck out 90 batters in 78 innings while throwing more strikes than ever before too. Our knock on Estrada was that he was all luck. We called him an extreme fly-ball pitcher with horrible command and and that was all true at the time. Here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Estrada led MLB in changeups thrown in 2016 and he's throwing even more of them now (28% of pitches in 2016; 36% in 2017). The pitch has produced an 18% swing and miss rate on its own. He's throwing a lot more strikes, too and his command sits at its highest level in years. His sub-indicators suggest it can stick but it’s not working to his advantage. You see, because he throws 89 MPH, batters were chasing pitches outside the zone and helping him out. The fact that he’s throwing more strikes has hurt him. Furthermore, batters can sit on the changeup all day long because they know they are going to get one. Hitters are laying back on Estrada and the result is an alarming 26% line-drive rate. Estrada’s batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 26% line-drives and 44% fly-balls is wretched. His luck has run out after two years and we’ll say it again that allowing warning track shots is not a skill. Lastly, these Rays know him well and have hit him well too with a combined team BA against Estrada of .301 in 155 AB’s with eight jacks. Estrada’s ERA/xERA over his past five starts is 5.59/4.66.
Jacob Faria was leading the International League in strikeouts prior to his promotion and his deception could continue to help him register swings-and-misses at the major league level. He is a tall righty who throws downhill and uses his 88-94 mph sinker to induce his fair share of groundballs. He shows an outstanding feel for changing speeds and has the confidence to use his plus changeup in any count. Faria has success pitching backwards at times and uses his change-up to set up his other offerings. In his first start against the South Side last week, Faris threw six sweet innings of three hit ball with a BAA of .142, a WHIP of 0.79 and an xERA of 2.26. He walked one and struck out five. Of course, this isn’t the White Sox he’ll be facing but he catches the Blue Jays returning home from a West Coast trip and a day off and that’s a favorable spot for any pitcher. Faria put up great numbers in his minor league career with a 3.13 ERA, 9.8 K’s/9 and an oppBA of .204. Rookie pitchers are always risky but this one has the talent to be sure and in this case, the risk is worth the reward.
Seattle +111 over MINNESOTA
Christian Bergman was a 24th round pick in 2010 and has only appeared in 62 games at this level in his career with only 21 of those being of the starting variety. Bergman is not a flamethrower or dominant pitcher. Rather, he is more or less a finesse righty with good command of an average pitch mix. The attribute that sets him apart is his ability to locate all four of his offerings. His fastball only sits between 86-91 mph, but he sequences his pitches to the point where his fastball appears quicker than it is. His best pitch is a change-up that features late movement and keeps hitters guessing. Don't expect much in the way of strikeouts, but he can eat innings, keep walks to a minimum, and induce some grounders. In 38 innings this season over six starts and one relief appearance, Bergman has a BB/K split of 12/26 with an ERA/xERA split of 4.02/4.47. His chances of getting whacked here are good but we’re not going to worry about that. Seattle has a hot offense, the better bullpen and there are few pitchers in this league that we would not back when taking back a price against Kyle Gibson.
Kyle Gibson’s last start was in Seattle. He went six full in that start and allowed just five hits and one run. The Twinkies won that game 2-1 and now Gibson will face that same team again. We promise different results this time. We don’t promise a Mariners victory but we can almost guarantee with certainty that Kyle Gibson has two chances of throwing a good game here---slim and none and slim just left the ballpark. Gibson has never been able to build on his promise. Read any publication prior to the start of any season and you’ll likely find Gibson in there as a breakout target only it never happens and it’s getting worse. Well, we’re DONE chilling with the band. Gibson is what he is, which is a weak pitcher that throws 91 MPH fastballs right down the middle. In 48 painful innings this season, Gibson has walked 26 and struck out 35. His WHIP is 1.82 so he’s always pitching in and out of trouble. Gibson is a nibbler that rarely puts away batters when he has them in favorable counts. With a 6.52/5.93 ERA/xERA split, it’s time to stop speculating on this pure stiff and just fade him every time he takes the hill, especially at home.
SAN DIEGO +102 over Cincinnati
The Padres have been tough at home all season long while the Reds are one of the worst road teams in baseball with 10 wins in 29 games. That San Diego is a home pup here against Scott Feldman is incorrect. Feldman doesn't look like an attractive option at all. For one, he doesn't miss many bats, ranking in the bottom 10 in K-rate in both 2014 and 2015 (min. 100 IP) and bottom 20 in swing and miss rate both years. He spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He’s made 13 starts this year and has a respectable 4.09 ERA but his walk to strikeout ratio is not respectable and neither is his 7% swing and miss rate. Feldman has walked 25 while striking out 56 in 73 innings. His 32% line-drive rate is third worst in MLB. His recent history is a strong indication that regression is on the way. With all those hits and batted balls in play, Feldman can thank something for his strand %. At the end of the day, too many things have to go right for him to have success. Take your chances elsewhere.
Clayton Richard is risky too but he’s not the dog here and there are some things to like about him. For one, his 58% groundball rate is the sixth best mark in MLB. His 3.61 xERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.54. This is a guy that started last year with the Cubbies then seemed to hit his stride as a member of the Padres starting rotation last August by amassing a 2.41 ERA in nine starts (52.1 IP) down the stretch. He’s a pitcher that can work quick innings too because of all those groundballs. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Richard is worth more than his numbers say. He’s always a risk because his dominant start/disaster start split over the past three years of 32%/24% says so. However, he and the Padres are still a much better option at home taking back a price than Feldman and the Reds are on the road spotting one.
Larry Wallace
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Play: Toronto -1½
I like Toronto here. They just took 2 out of 3 from the Mariners on the road vs a team who has been really good at home this year. They are being led by Josh Donaldson who is batting .351 with five home runs in June. Toronto has won 13 of last 19 games, 10 of 13 vs a right handed starter and Rays are 1-4 L5 road games. Look for Smoak, Donaldson, and Bautista to carry the team vs an inexperienced Tampa Bay starter.
John Martin
Reds vs. Padres
Play: Reds -112
After four straight losses out on the West Coast, the Cincinnati Reds should get back in the win column today against the 25-40 San Diego Padres. The Reds have their ace on the mound in Scott Feldman, who is 5-4 with a 4.09 ERA in 13 starts this season. Clayton Richard is 4-7 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 13 starts for the Padres, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his last three outings. Feldman is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in two starts against the Padres, while Richard is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in six starts against the Reds.
Cal Sports
Oakland at Miami
Play: Miami -120
When a team hosts the All-Star game it usually gives the home team a bump and that is very true with the Marlins who have now won 8 straight as a home favorite. On the flip-side the A's are 5-15 when on the road in a competitive game when the line is between +125 and -125. Oakland along with Philadelphia are the only two teams to yet reach 10 road wins while Miami is 5-1 the game after being held to 2 runs or less.
Dwayne Bryant
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: Under 8
Petco Park is a good Under venue, and Clayton Richard is a good Under pitcher. I say that because his 58.2% GB% ranks 6th among the 112 starters who have tossed at least 50 innings this season, and he owns a low 5.9% BB%. His 3.53 xFIP indicates that he should have some solid outings moving forward. With the Reds averaging just 3.7 runs per road game against lefties, I expect Richard to keep them in check.
Not much to say about Cinci's Scott Feldman. The numbers I look at in regards to betting totals are all pretty much middle-of-the-road. I do like that he is coming off 7 shutout innings against the Cardinals, but that was at home. The last time he pitched in a pitcher's park, he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings at San Francisco on May 12th. The venue is right tonight, and the Padres are averaging just 4.1 runs per home night game against righties this season.
Not fond of either bullpen, which kept me from making this a client play.
We do get Lance Barksdale behind the plate here. The Under is 10-2 with Barksdale calling balls and strikes this season, and 30-13-1 since the start of last season.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Colorado +105
Colorado will look to bounce back from Monday's loss with Tyler Chatwood on the mound and he is 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA on the road while allowing only two earned runs on nine hits his last three road starts. This continues the trend Chatwood set last year when he was 4-8 at Coors Field and 8-1 away from home. He pitched six innings against Pittsburgh in 2016 and gave up a run in six innings. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole has been getting clobbered to the tune of 23 runs on 39 hits in his last 19 1/3 innings and he's 3-6 with a 4.83 ERA overall. The Pirates are 8-17 in Cole's last 25 starts and 3-8 his last 11 starts against teams with winning records. Colorado is in first place in the NL West and has a 24-12 road record.
Micah Roberts
Orioles at White Sox
Play: Over 10.5
The Orioles are getting roasted on the road. They've lost eight straight away games and 13 of their last 15. And it's not like they're not hitting. They average 4.6 road runs, but allow 6.2 runs a game to the home team. The O's allow those home teams to hit .301. You can't win many games when the pitching is that bad. Alec Asher and Derek Holland have looked shaky over their past couple of starts. The top play here is the Over and I've made a smaller wager on the Sox to win.
Dave Price
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Yankees -119
The New York Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall while scoring a combined 60 runs in the process, or an average of 10 runs per game. C.C. Sabathia is now 7-2 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 starts after going 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3 outings. JC Ramirez has gotten knocked around of late in giving up 11 runs and 4 homers over 9 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts. Now Ramirez faced arguably the best lineup in baseball here Tuesday, and I don't foresee it going to well for him. The Yankees are 17-1 after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. The Yankees are 10-2 in Sabathia's 12 starts this year, including 5-0 in his last 5 starts.
Handicappers Hub
Mariners vs. Twins
Play: Over 11
Both of these starters are struggling this season and despite a very good start against their last starts out their numbers are less than impressive. Bergman is 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA on the road while Gibson is 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA at home with both bullpens not helping. Seattle's bullpen is coming in with a 4.53 ERA on the road while Minnesota's bullpen is flat pathetic with a 6.18 ERA at home!
The only good news for both teams is that they can really hit the baseball. Look for both starters to get roughed up leaving it to the bullpen and a very high scoring game here tonight for an easy over in Minneapolis!
Andre Ramirez
Dodgers vs. Indians
Play: Dodgers -158
Bauer has struggled his last couple of starts. Now, some of that can be chalked up to throwing on two days rest after rain limited him to 1.2 innings against the Royals, but he wasn’t sharp before the delay either. Dealing with Kershaw is no picnic for any team, especially one that is unfamiliar with him. After scuffling against the Cubs, when he gave up a career-high tying 11 hits in 4.1 innings, he’s been razor sharp in his last two outings. That’s enough to tip the scales the Dodgers’ way in this contest.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105) over Baltimore
Another free winner here last night on the Mets and today we jump on the White Sox at an attractive price. Not only are the Orioles in a serious funk right now, losing five in a row and seven of their last nine, but the pitching staff is a disaster, allowing an incredulous 40 runs in the last three games. That means the bullpen is absolutely gassed and that’s bad news since the relievers have combined to post a 5.54 ERA on the road this year. In fact, the entire Baltimore team struggles away from home, posting a 10-21 road record. The overall numbers for ChiSox starter Derek Holland are not great, but he’s been much better pitching at home where he has posted a 2.74 ERA in four starts. Take the home dog!
Bruce Marshall
Colorado at Pittsburgh
Pick: Colorado
Colorado has hit a bit of a bump with two losses in a row, while the Bucs, after bottoming out at 26-35, have won three in a row. But Clint Hurdle has to have questions about Tuesday starter Gerrit Cole, whose ERA is above 10 over his last four starts. Meanwhile, the Rocks usually get good work from Tyler Chatwood, who has allowed just 2 runs voer 14 IP in his last two starts and has a 2.53 ERA in seven road starts.
Swish Insider
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Jacob Faria impressed in his first appearance of the season, allowing just 1 earned run and 3 hits in 6 and a third innings while striking out 5 in the process. And truth be told, his stuff looked pretty electric in the process; indeed he logged a 16.8% swinging strike rate vs the White Sox, holding Chicago to less than one base runner per inning. The White Sox as a team are not particularly patient at the plate, and it allowed Faria to take advantage of them out of the zone, but the Blue Jays, for all their offensive ups and downs, are a different animal. In fact, they've recorded the 25th lowest swinging strike rate as a team and swung at just 28.3% of pitches out of the zone, and that could spell trouble for Faria. Estrada, meanwhile, has struckout 27.6% of batters faced this season, including 26.7% of righties, while the Rays have posted the highest strikeout rate -- 25.82% -- vs righties this season. All told though, our models give Toronto a 65.60% outright win probability today, and even as a solid favorite at -143, taking the Blue Jays straight up carries a projected ROI of 11.47%, making this play a great combination of value and confidence.
MIKE ANTHONY
Oakland vs. Miami
Play: Miami -163
The Miami starting pitching has had some questionable runs - but their fielding and batting can both be pretty good. Volquez has been carrying around a 3.41 ERA and the bats of Oakland cant catch Miami's best pitcher. The problem, is that the players in Oakland just aren't that good. The A's team, on the whole, has lucked out more than a couple of times thus far with some late errors, and late hits. Oakland has really struggled with defense and their pitching isn't up to par with Miami. Miami wins this one.