DAVE COKIN
SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY
PLAY: SEATTLE +103
There’s not a great deal to choose between the two starting pitchers. I’ll call Taijuan Walker and Jake Odorizzi a wash. Both are capable of shutting down the opposition. Walker is off an incredibly dominating start, but he’s still a little vulnerable to the long ball. Odorizzi remains a work in progress in terms of needing to be more economical with his pitch counts. Bottom line is that’s the one even comparative in this matchup.
Aside from that it reads all Seattle to me. The Mariners have been remarkable on the road, both offensively and in the bullpen. I have no idea why the relief corps struggles at Safeco, but the road ERA for the pen is 2.44, which is outstanding.
The Rays have also been better on the road than at the Slop, particularly when facing righties. Tampa Bay is averaging less than three runs per nine innings at home against righthanders, and I don’t think that will be enough here.
I made Seattle the favorite in this game, and I would think there’s a good chance they close as chalk. So I’ll go for what I think is a little value and will play the Mariners.
Rob Vinciletti
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -170
The Redsox are 9-1 as a home favorite off a road favored loss by 2 or more scoring 4 or less and are hitting .301 and scoring 6.4 runs per game at home. The Orioles are in and have lost 10 of 13 on the road with a total that is 8 to 8.5. Home favorites off a road favored loss scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits are 26-8 since 2004 vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog loss. we will back Price and Boston over Balty and Tillman tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs -115
Edges - Cubs: John Lackey 4-1 career team starts in this series, including 4-0 the last four; and 13-4 last 17 team starts during June, including 5-0 the last five. Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 0-3 versus N.L. Central foes this season; and 2-5 with 6.13 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last 7 overall team starts. With Lackey 5-2 with a 1.48 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in his last seven team starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago Cubs.
Mike Lundin
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Indians 2-1 in Monday's series opener to climb just two games back of the Tribe who remain top of the AL Central. I think we'll see another low-scoring contest between the division rivals on Tuesday.
Chris Young (2-6, 6.37) will take the ball for Kansas City. His season ERA is extremely high, and he was lit up for five runs in 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland earlier this season, but he's much stronger home at Kauffman. Young has posted a 2.75 ERA in five appearances (three starts) in Kansas City this year with 23 Ks over 19 2/3 innings of work and I expect a solid outing from the veteran tonight. It's also worth noting that Cleveland has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past eight games.
The Tribe turn to Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.48 ERA) who unlike Young has done his best work on the road where he has a 2.91 ERA over five starts. Tomlin has held the Royals to five runs in 12 1/3 innings of work covering two meetings this season and he has allowed just three runs through his last two starts.
Under is 7-2-2 in Indians last 11 overall, under is 4-1 in Royals last five overall and under is 3-0-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Martin Griffiths
Portugal vs. Iceland
Play: Over 2
The Portuguese should really be strong enough to beat the Icelanders in this Euro 2016 match, but it may not be as easy as one would think.
Iceland did quite well in qualification, they beat some damn good teams, Holland as an example, they lost only twice, both times away against other qualifiers Turkey and Czech Republic and on both occasions only lost by a single goal.
What has let them down a little has been some poor pre tournament friendly defeats, losing 6 out of nine games, though only twice did they lose by more than one goal.
Portugal were in a very competitive group and did rather well, they lost just the once, their very first game and won the next seven on the bounce, their pre tournament friendly results were not that bad either culminating in a 7-0 win over Estonia.
I think Portugal will win, but the spread is too high and the odds on them outright are too low, I do expect Iceland to be competitive and would not be at all surprised if they scored.
All things considered I am confident this will be over 2 goals and that is my pick
Scott Spreitzer
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Royals +119
Kansas City won the first game of the series as it seeks revenge for a four-game sweep at Cleveland earlier this month and the Royals go for their fourth win overall tonight following an eight-game losing streak. Kansas City is 20-7 at home and a winner of eight in a row at Kauffman Stadium. Josh Tomlin has allowed five runs and 14 hits in 12 1/3 innings against the Royals this year and Kansas City hitters have a combined .315 batting average against the right-hander, including Salvador Perez, who is 13-for-20 against Tomlin. Chris Young will be making his fourth appearance after a stint on the disabled list and he got roughed up his last time out. However, he'll have nine days rest and Young has by far done his best pitching at home with a 2-1 record and 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 innings. Young had a .206 opponent batting average against the Indians in 2015. Kansas City is 37-14 at home against right-handed starters dating to last season.
Art Aronson
Reds vs. Braves
Play: Under 8
The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan (2-4, 3.77 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits with one walk and seven K’s over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Cardinals on Thursday. Finnegan now has three quality starts out of his last four outings, pitching at least into the seventh inning each time. Despite a 1-3 record, he’s posted a respectable 3.22 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (2-6, 2.85) who went a season-high eight innings vs. the Padres on Wednesday, striking out eight and allowing just two runs off five hits and a walk en route to the 4-2 victory. And despite his 0-3 record at home, Teheran has posted a decent 3.18 ERA in Atlanta this year. Two of the worst offenses in the league vs. a couple of red hot hurlers, we’ll definitely recommend a second look at the UNDER in this one.
Bob Harvey
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½
The co-leaders in the American League East square off in Boston where the Red Sox and David Price host Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park.
The Orioles (36-26, 35-27 RL) are coming off a disappointing four-game series in Toronto where they took the opener but dropped the final three-games of the set. The Baltimore pitching staff, which allowed 30 runs to the potent Blue Jays offense, was touched up for 29 runs by Boston in a four-game series at home in early June. They did manage a pair of wins in the set and lead the season series 4-3.
The Red Sox (36-36, 36-36 RL)are boast the league’s top offense leading in runs per game (5.95) and batting average (.291) while the Orioles lead the AL in home runs (99) and are sixth in scoring (4.82 RPG).
Tillman (8-1, 3.01 ERA) bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season with one of his best on Wednesday against Kansas City, striking out nine without issuing a walk in 7 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win. He missed Boston the first two times around this season but is 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 18 career starts against the Red Sox.
Price (7-3, 4.63) is working on a string of six straight quality starts, but overall has been a disappointment in his first-year with the Red Sox. He was a tough-luck loser in San Francisco on Wednesday when he was dinged for two runs on three hits – two solo home runs – over eight innings in a game Boston went on to lose 2-1. Price was knocked around for five runs in as many innings against Baltimore on April 11 and is 8-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 20 career starts against the Orioles.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -133
The Dodgers come into Game 2 of this series in Arizona as losers of three straight, and I don't think they deserve to be a favorite on the road in this spot. They've won just four more games than the D'Backs overall this season, and they have a losing record away from Chavez Ravine. Kenta Maeda will toe the slab for the Dodgers, and he's had a successful rookie season so far. Maeda (5-4, 2.70 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss to Colorado his last time out. His last five starts have come against the likes of Colorado, Atlanta, San Diego and the Mets. Pitching on the road in this hitter's park should prove to be a tougher test than he's faced in a while. Arizona hands the ball to Archie Bradley, who has been dominant at times. Bradley (2-2, 5.22 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Tampa his last time out. Prior to that he struck out 19 batters over 13 1/3 innings in his previous two starts. He's only faced the Dodgers once, tossing six scoreless innings, surrendering just one hit and fanning six. The Dodgers have lost five of their last six road games, and they own a .191 team batting average so far in June.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Atlanta
Pick: Under
The Reds scored in the ninth inning to come from behind and win Game 1 by a score of 9-8 in Atlanta. They face the Braves ace in Game 2 Tuesday, and we should see a much lower scoring game at Turner Field tonight. My money is on the total to go under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Braves will turn to Julio Teheran, who has been dominant in previous encounters with Cincinnati. Teheran (2-6, 2.85 ERA) struck out eight in eight innings in a 4-2 win over the Padres in his last outing. He's 2-1 with a stellar 1.78 ERA in his last four start versus the Reds.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Reds have hit just .195 over a combined 41 at bats versus Teheran. Brandon Phillips is 1-for-11 lifetime, while Jay Bruce is just 2-for-12 versus the 25 year old.
3. X-Factor - The Reds scored a total of just seven runs in four games prior to landing in Atlanta.
Bruce Marshall
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta
Pick: Cincinnati
Even if Julio Teheran is Atlanta's ace, the Braves are still just 18-45 this season, so laying a price with them is an unnecessary risk. The Reds have been scoring runs the past two weeks and starter Brandon Finnegan appears to be emerging as a force, as the ex-Royal (acquired in the Johnny Cueto trade last July) has shut down the Cards and Nats in his last two starts, allowing just 3 runs over 13 1/3 IP in the process.
Jim Feist
Twins at Angels
Pick: Over
Minnesota is on a 36-13-4 run over the total. Ervin Santana used to play for the Angels years ago, now he's old and broken down with a 1-6 record and a 4.77 ERA. Santana lost for the fourth consecutive start Thursday, giving up five runs on nine hits over 6.1 innings against the Marlins. The Over is 21-7-2 when the Twins face a right-handed starter. LA is on a 6-2-2 run over the total, as well as 11-4 over the total at home against a right-handed starter. And when these teams clash the Over is 38-18-5 in the last 61 meetings.
Sleepyj
Angels -130
I was waiting for this matchup for a few days now....Not sold right now on Santana and his ERA is becoming a problem...If this keeps up, he might find himself falling out of the rotation...Angels have been slumping the last 10 games, but a bounce back game here looks rather solid..Chain gets the nod here and he has been up and down..At home he looks the most comfortable and the Twins might be just what the doctor ordered again after last night..Twins belted 3 HR's for 5 runs..I don;t think they get that lucky with Chacin who has the capability of getting ground ball outs...I''ll take a shot here with the struggling Angels.
Yankees -120
De La Rosa comes out of the pen, but I'm not sure this is the club to try to pick up a win...I usually like to look at teams on the first night in Coors...Yanks get a quality pitcher in Eovaldi here tonight...He has been getting lit up and because he's been failing to keep the ball down..I look for him to be very low in the zone all night long..Plenty on ground ball out here perhaps...DeLa Rosa might confuse the Yanks for a bit as well, so I lean slightly to the under..Perhaps a very small wager on that as well.
Stephen Nover
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs -111
So this is what you have going by laying this short road price with the Cubs.
You get the best team in baseball off only its fifth loss in 19 games. You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time the Cubs dropped two in a row.
You get a team that has won 67 percent of its last 55 road games and has beaten Washington during six of the past seven meetings.
You get the better offense. The Cubs are averaging 5.4 runs per game, third-best in the majors. The Nationals average 4.6 runs a game.
You get the much hotter starter in a pitching matchup of John Lackey versus southpaw Gio Gonzalez.
Lackey is going for his ninth straight quality start. He's pitched 13 2/3 scoreless innings this month with 17 strikeouts. Lackey beat the Nationals last month at home giving up two runs on six hits in seven inning with 11 strikeouts.
Let's compare this to Gonzalez, who is in a funk giving up 21 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 2/3 innings. The Nationals lost all four of these games. This doesn't even include Gonzalez's May start against the Cubs when he allowed five runs and couldn't get out of the sixth inning.
The Cubs are 13-5 versus lefties, averaging 5.7 runs per game against them. Chicago has won 10 of the past 12 times on the road facing a southpaw.
John Ryan
Chicago vs, Washington
Play: Washington +107
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 over the last 5 seasons good for 73% winners and made 23 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA under 3.70) (NL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA more than 7.00 over his last 3 starts. Also another proven system supports this play posting a 51-20 since 1997 good for 72% winners and made 31 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - good NL offensive team (over 5.0 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA under 3.75), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Cubs are 118-153 (-54.0 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base since 1997. Lackey is a money losing 3-14 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Washington won the first game of this series 4-1 yesterday. The Nationals have been on a roll even prior to yesterday's game going 6-1, hitting .324 with 7.7 RPG, and slugging .536. Gonzalez is 3-2 when starting against Chicago Cubs with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.054. Washington's bullpen is stellar at home with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. Hitters on a roll, solid starting pitching, and great bullpen pitching make this an easy pick.