Brandon Shively
Houston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Houston
I like the spot here for the Houston Astros catching plus money against the Saint Louis Cardinals tonight. The main edge is the pitching matchup. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and they have now won his last 8 starts. Fister has a 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and he appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Saint Louis hands the ball to Jaime Garcia whose ERA and WHIP is way up over his last four starts. Garcia’s walks per 9 IP are up from last year. His average with balls in play is up from last year. His homerun per fly ball is up from last year....You get the point. Looking at Garcia’s last four starts, he has given up 35 hits in only 19 IP and has only 10 strikeouts in this time frame.While the Astros did get swept on Sunday, they are a perfect 3-0 this season after getting shut out. Houston might also get a big boost back to their lineup with shortstop Carlos Correa who sounds hopeful to play. Jose Altuve is 6-for-13 career vs Garcia and Carlos Gomez is 10-for-31. While Gomez has been struggling, Altuve continues to hit hot batting .429 the last seven days and is hitting .382 vs lefties on the season.
Buster Sports
Rangers at Athletics
Play: Over 8.5
The starting pitchers for tonight's matchup are for the Rangers LH Martin Perez (5-4, 3.22 ERA) and he goes up against the Athletics LH Eric Surkamp (0-3, 6.41). The A's last night just hammered the Rangers 14-5 and we feel that the bats will be going again tonight, as our selection is the over in this contest. Eric Surkamp has been going back and forth from Triple-A Nashville these last couple of months as he tries to put things together from what has been a rough season for him. In his last 3 starts in the bigs he has a ERA of 9.74 and a WHIP of 2.331. As for Perez he has been pitching very well of late, unfortunately for him its been all at home as he last ventured on the road on May 18th against these same Athletics. In that game he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings. For the year on the road he has a 4.20 ERA and a WHIP of 1.433. When Perez starts against the A's he is 3-5 with a ERA of 5.81 and a WHIP of 1.521. With the two teams combining for 19 runs and 26 hits last night, look for much of the same in Oakland tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in Oakland.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Washington
Pick: Washington +116
The Chicago Cubs have been getting the headlines. But, the Washington Nationals have won four straight and are in first place in the NL East Division. They are 40-24 after beating the Cubs 4-1 on Monday in another Max Scherzer masterpiece. Gio Gonzalez comes off a good outing after suffering a rough patch allowing three runs and five hits in seven innings at the White Sox. The Cubs have split their last eight games which almost qualifies as a slump for the NL Central leaders while the Nationals have won seven of their last eight games. Washington has won five home games in a row and six of its last seven against right-handed starters. John Lackey is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and coming off seven shutout innings at Philadelphia but the value lies with red-hot Washington.
Bruce Marshall
Astros at Cardinals
Play: Astros
St. Louis enters off a 3-game sweep in Pittsburgh but holds its breath as starter Jaime Garcia has had some rough outings in the past month, including 8 runs allowed in just 7 1/3 IP across his last two starts at Busch Stadium. The hotter pitcher entering this matchup is definitely Houston's Doug Fister, who has allowed just 2 runs in his last three starts covering 18 IP (ERA 1.00) while the Astros have won in his last eight starts.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at St Louis Cardinals
Pick: St Louis Cardinals
Inconsistent starting pitching and questionable defense play has left the Cards double digits behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central for parts of the season so far (Cards currently sit 8 1/2 games back of the Cubs). However, the Cardinals have spoken confidently about the run they believe will eventually come (remember, St Louis won a MLB-best 100 games in 2015). If last week was any indication, St Louis might be ready to pose a challenge to its longtime rivals from the Windy City. The Cards capped a season-high five-game winning streak with a sweep of Pittsburgh at PNC Park over the weekend, putting St Louis a season-high seven games over .500 at 35-28.
St Louis outscored Pittsburgh 22-7 in its just-completed series, teaming its powerful offense with better pitching and defense. Starters Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Mike Leake each completed seven innings, with Martinez coming within two outs of his first complete game in the majors. As for the defense, a nagging weakness in April and May, it has given opponents fewer four-out innings in a stretch which has seen the Cardinals win 11 of their last 15 games. "Early in the season, we didn't figure it out, but right now, we are rolling," catcher Yadier Molina said after Sunday's 8-3 decision over the Pirates. "We're playing good baseball. We're doing the little things -- and we are pitching better. That's the key."
The Cards welcome the 30-35 Houston Astros to town Tuesday night for a two-game IL series. The Astros look NOTHING like the 86-win wild card team from 2015, which beat the Yankees and then lost in five games to the Royals in the ALDS. Houston is still searching to replicate the formula from last year. The team had won SIX of seven but then just as quickly, lost FIVE of seven. The most recent loss was a 5-0 decision Sunday at Tampa Bay, as 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel fell to 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA (his moneyline mark of minus-$1,051 is dead-last among ALL starters in MLB!).
The good news for Houston is that it might regain the services of shortstop Carlos Correa Tuesday night. Correa missed the series in Tampa Bay with a sprained left ankle suffered Thursday at Texas. "He's feeling a lot better," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said to mlb.com. "I wanted to keep him off his feet one more day ... but we're certainly shooting for Tuesday." At least for this first game of the series, the Astros feature a starter who is on a roll. Doug Fister (6-3, 3.34 ERA) has won FIVE straight decisions, with Houston going a PERFECT 8-0 in his last eight starting assignments (his plus-$733 moneyline mark on the season ranks eighth-best among all starters). He enters this contest having allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts, NINE of which have been quality ones.
Jaime García (4-5, 3.89 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards, coming off another abbreviated outing his last time out. He was shelled for five runs and a season-high 13 hits over 4.2 just innings at Cincinnati last Wednesday but managed to escape with a no-decision. He has failed to pitch beyond five innings in SIX of his last 10 starts, including a 2.1-inning debacle vs Arizona in his last home start on May 22. More bad news comes the Cards way in that Garcia is 2-5 with a 6.41 ERA in nine starts vs the Astros in his career (team is 2-7).
The Cardinals appear to have found their stride, ripping off five consecutive victories. St Louis is 3-0 in interleague play as it kicks off a stretch where 12 of the next 15 contests are against American League opponents, with a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs wedged between them. It’s time to get ‘busy.” I’ll back the Cards.
Power Sports
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The A's hammered the Rangers last night, winning 14-5. You might think that result is unlikely to be repeated, but "sharp" money (as was the case last night) seems to be on the home team yet again. Texas might be an excellent 24-10 at home, but they're only 15-15 on the road.
Like last night, the number of our A's starter aren't too encouraging. But at least he has a hot offense to back him up here. Oakland scored four times in three consecutive innings last night, the first time we've seen that in almost five years (from any team). Oakland had scored six runs in Sunday's win at Cincinnati. This is a much needed turn around after the team had previously lost its last seven games.
Texas' Martin Perez is still winless on the road. Overall, he's pitched well of late, but the last time he failed to turn in a quality outing, the A's were the opponent. Perez gave up four runs in an 8-1 loss in this ballpark. I look for the A's to surprise again.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +128 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are in contention every year. They are known as the “model-franchise” because of their structural approach to building a consistent winner year in and year out. The Cardinals are right where they usually are with a 35-28 record and in second place in the NL Central behind the mighty Cubs. That said, we find it a little curious that St. Louis opened as a small -130 favorite at home against the 30-35 Astros with Doug Fister going. In terms of the market, Fister is absolutely recognized as the inferior pitcher here and Houston is recognized as the inferior team, which makes the small opening price on the Cardinals even more curious. We’re suggesting being very cautious about betting the favorite here.
Fister has 44 K’s in 73 innings. He’s a finesse righty with 86 MPH heat. We are not for a second going to try and convince anyone that Fister is coming on because he’s not. His swing and miss rate is low at 6% and his control is below average. Once again we have to question the small line here, as Jaime Garcia has been winning games for the Cardinals and is coming off a great season last year. We smell a rat.
While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Jaime Garcia, he was able to throw 130 innings in 2015—his highest since 2011—while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. He already thrown 70 innings this year and it appears as though a heavy dose of fatigue is setting in. When fatigue sets in the first thing to go is control. Garcia has walked 10 batters over his past 24 frames with a 52% first-pitch strike rate over that span. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 6%. It is now time to back off this talented lefty time bomb. Garcia is battling everything including himself. When things are not going his way, he slows way down. That’s a bad sign on the mound that Garcia can’t get away from. Garcia has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%, strand%, hr/f) and while his actual ERA is still in decent shape, his xERA of 5.18 suggests a sharp ERA correction is looming. Garcia is running on fumes.
COLORADO +100 over N.Y. Yankees
Before losing the final two games of their weekend set with the Tigers, New York had reeled off five wins in a row while scoring 33 times over that span. That’s nice but four of those five victories occurred against the reeling Angels, who have the worst pitching staff in baseball. The Angels are so desperate for starting pitching that they gave David Huff a spot in the rotation. Every team that plays the Angels is putting up crooked numbers so New York’s four-game sweep over the Halos in the Bronx means jack. Everyone scores at Coors Field and maybe even this collection of aging vets will score a bunch too but we wouldn’t trust the Yankees to score more than the Rockies at Coors Field on our worst day.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse at the cold corner in New York. Mets fans are bummed out at the loss of Lucas Duda, but Yankees fans will raise their loss of a productive first baseman with this series of events: Mark Teixiera devolved into one of the worst hitters in the league and got injured, Dustin Ackley injured his shoulder and went down for the season, and Chris Parmelee suffered a tough hamstring injury as well. When you’re bummed about Chris Parmelee going down, things have already gotten dark. The next man up is Ike Davis–not former Yankee Nick Swisher, who’s toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Scranton–who had been toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Round Rock. Once a New York darling, Davis has had a fall from grace since those halcyon days of 2010. The current incarnation of the Arizona native has a minimal hit tool, little mobility on the field and base-paths, and simply not enough game power to make up for his deficiencies.The Yanks have not played here in five years. It’s not a favorable field to come in stone cold and expect to thrive. It’s a tricky venue and we could see a bunch of New York errors too.
Nathan Eovaldi is enjoying a nice campaign where he has seen significant skills growth (3.50 xERA, 8.3 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 65% first-pitch strike rate). This start however, comes with an incredible amount of risk, as he takes on a Rockies bunch that average 5.9 runs per game at home along with a .296 BA and MLB-best .882 OPS. This venue beats up every pitcher and takes names as it goes along. Eovaldi is showing signs of regressing too, as he’s been tagged for 24 hits and 11 runs over his last 16 innings. The knock on Eovaldi is that his fastball, despite being in the 95 MPH range, comes in flat. He added a splitter to his repertoire in August of last year, which has helped him tremendously but hitters are making adjustments to it and regression has kicked in. Not interested.
Jorge De La Rosa comes and goes. You see his name for a few starts and then you don’t. He’s a 35-year-old lefty that has been around for some time and it has been pretty much the same story year after year after year. De La Rosa is consistently the fill-in guy, the bullpen guy, the long relief guy or the emergency spot starter guy. Before your eyes glaze over, check out his trends in strikeouts and groundballs. He has 39 K’s in 32 innings this year. He had 134 K’s in 139 innings last year. De La Rosa has a nice groundball lean that was 71% in his last appearance when he went four, no-hit innings against the Pirates. Before you go, look at this three-year split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA. Thanks for your time.
Seattle +103 over TAMPA BAY
The Mariners struggled during their last home stand but they faced a pair of division leaders so we won't put much stock into a bad week. Seattle will send righty Taijuan Walker to the mound today and he'll look to build off his best start of the season. The Louisiana native scattered three hits, gave up no walks and struck out a season high 11 batters in eight full innings against Cleveland his last time out. Walker had been a victim of some bad luck prior to his last start but he has the goods to thrive at this level. He has 94 MPH heat and his mix of pitches has allowed him to drive his walk rate down this season. Walker has been throwing his secondary pitches in the strike zone and so far it's made the difference, as he's only walking two batters per nine innings. Walker is putting more balls in play this season but it's leading to more outs instead of walks which is a positive. His hard hit ball percentage is just 26% and that tells us while those balls are in play they aren't doing much damage. Aside from that, the Rays strike out a ton and have ugly numbers against righties. This is a good righty.
Much like his counterpart tonight, the Rays have been waiting for Jake Odorizzi to finally get over the hump and become a productive every day starter. While he's shown some flashes, the former first round pick is still having trouble pitching deep into games. Odorizzi only made it out of the fifth inning once in his last six starts. He was fortunate to get the win in Arizona last time out after racking up his pitch count by walking three and striking out eight in five innings of work. Odorizzi's 40.8% fly ball percentage is the second highest on the board today with the Royals' Chris Young leading the way. That's not company you want to keep. Tampa's suspect bullpen is in play tonight and even if Odorizzi pitches well, it guarantees northing. The Rays have proven to be a live pooch but this is not a team to trust as the chalk because of all their key injuries, weak defense, struggling pen and laboring offense.
Miami +119 over SAN DIEGO
Tom Koehler is a groundball specialist that can get hitters to swing at a lot of bad pitches. His swinging strike rate has shown a steady increase this year by going from 8% in the first month to 10% in May to 12% over his last two starts. Koehler has a 53% groundball rate and that’s precisely the type of pitcher we like to get behind in a pitcher’s park. Half of his 12 starts have been of the dominant variety and now he and the Marlins will take back a price against a beatable opponent.
We are of the buy-low//sell high mentality and that applies to Drew Pomeranz. We were backing this guy when he was being offered big prices over his first eight starts but now the market has caught on as to how good he’s been, which makes us sellers. Pomeranz was a dog in his first eight starts of the year and he was a significant dog in most of them. He now brings his 2.44 ERA into this game with 83 K’s in 70 innings. Pomeranz was a high draft pick that never fulfilled his promise but has come out of nowhere this season to thrive. Thing is, major-league hitters make adjustments, especially when a previously ordinary pitcher starts to thrive. Pomeranz has been greatly aided by fortunate hit and strand rates of 27% and 85% respectively. When his hit and strand rates begin normalizing, it will chip away at his shiny surface stats. Furthermore, the Marlins are one of the best hitting teams in the majors against southpaws. Now that there is plenty of film out on the “new” Drew Pomeranz, one can expect his actual ERA to start creeping more towards his xERA of 3.70. For the first time in his career, Pomeranz is way overvalued.
Ray Monohan
Texas Rangers -101
The Rangers and Athletics continue their AL West weekday series on Tuesday and Texas holds value at this low of juice. The Rangers continue to battle atop the AL West and losing games like this to Oakland A's is something they simply cannot do.
Martin Perez takes the hill for Texas and he's been dominant as of late. Perez has won 4 straight starts and has allowed just 7 runs in that span. He's been keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he's allowed just 2 home runs, which is a major key for him.
Eric Surkamp goes for Oakland and he continues to search for his first win since 2014. He was demoted to Triple A already once this season as he sits with a 6.41 ERA.
Some trends to consider. Rangers are 12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games. Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. American League West.
This is a very generous price on the Rangers considering their strong edge in the pitching matchup here. With that, they are worth a move.
Jeff Alexander
Reds/Braves Under 8
I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to these two teams combining for 17 runs in the Reds 9-8 win on Monday. Offense figures to be a lot harder to come by for both teams with today's pitching matchup. Atlanta gives the ball to Julio Teheran, who despite a 2-6 record owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 13 starts. Teheran has owned the Reds in his career, posting a 1.78 ERA in 4 starts. Cincinnati counters with Brandon Finnegan, who is one of the more underrated starters in the league. Finnegan has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and will be facing one of the worst offenses in the league in the Braves.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -1.5 -109
Instead of laying the big juice for the Giants on the money line today, I'm going to back them on the run line at nearly even money knowing there's a good chance they win by multiple runs tonight. The Giants opened with an 11-5 victory over the Brewers yesterday for their third straight victory.
Now ace Madison Bumgarner gets the ball looking to improve on his Cy Young-caliber season already. He's 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts, including 1-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in his last three. Bumgarner is also 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in nine career starts against Milwaukee.
Matt Garza will be making his season debut for the Brewers tonight. He is coming off the worst year of his career in which he went 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA last season with the Brewers. He compiled a 4.76 ERA in three rehab starts with low Class A Wisconsin leading up to his debut. Garza is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.
Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (MILWAUKEE) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 48-14 (77.4%, +32.7 units) over the last five seasons. Bumgarner is 33-13 against the run line (+22.7 Units) after a win over the last three seasons.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers -143
Los Angeles is worth a look here on the road against the Diamondbacks tonight. The Dodgers will send out Kenta Maeda, who has a sensational 2.70 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 12 starts. Maeda has been dominant on the road, where he's 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP in 5 starts. Arizona will give the ball to Archie Bradley, who is just 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 5 starts. Bradley was fortunate to only give up 4 runs in his previous outing, as he allowed 5 hits and walked 4 in just 5 2/3 innings. Arizona has won 3 straight, but are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -120
The Atlanta Braves have a big edge on the mound tonight with Julio Teheran over Brandon Finnegan of the Cincinnati Reds. Teheran is has posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's been one of the few bright spots for the Braves. He is also 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta, his lowest ERA against any NL club with a minimum of 4 starts. He has pitched 20 shutout innings in his last 3 starts against the Reds. Brandon Finnegan is still trying to find his way in the majors, going 2-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Cincinnati is 1-12 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Reds are 3-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.
Brad Diamond
Cleveland -124
Despite losing 2-1 last night against the Royals, it's hard to buck the visitors in this spot. Cleveland brings savvy RHP Tomlin to the hill versus Kansas City's RHP Young. With Tomlin the Indians are 12-0 with 4 days of rest. Although Young of KC has had successes, the Royals come 2-6 in his last 8 starts. In addition, KC is 1-7 vs. RHP and 0-6 after scoring 2 or less runs in a game.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO CUBS -125 over Washington
Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez is an easy "Go Against" for us on Tuesday night. The veteran lefty has been very erratic this season especially over the last 7 starts in which he has one 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA. Chicago sends John Lackey with his 7-2 record and 2.63 ERA to the hill. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 8 starts and has been the best pitcher in baseball since May 1st as measured by the WHIP index. Cubs are 10-2 this season against lefties and make it 11-2 tonight!
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-61 run with free picks: Pittsburgh at N.Y. METS (-140)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Although the Pittsburgh Pirates finally had a day off, make note that beginning May 13, they had at least one game scheduled every day - 31 straight - through yesterday. This is still a very tired team, which is now on the road to face the defending National League champion New York Mets.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Mets are currently five games back of the Washington Nationals in the N.L. East. The Nats are hosting the Chicago Cubs, and still have two left in that series. Washington could very well lose two straight, and if the Mets can sweep the Bucs the next three nights, New York would be 2-1/2 back of Washington headed into the weekend.
BOTTOM LINE is - I'm going to go off of some trends to conclude this, something I rarely do, but it's relevant here, as the Pirates come in mired in losing streaks of 0-4 on the road and 0-5 overall. Meanwhile, the Mets have won 17 of 21 against N.L. Central teams, while they're in on a 20-7 run after an off day.
4* N.Y. METS