Free Picks for Tuesday, June 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -1
I’m creating a -1 line here by splitting my wager between the money line and runs line. ML is right around -145, RL is about +145.
Jordan Zimmermann has gotten it together for the Tigers. But aside from that cautionary note, there’s nothing else I can see here as a good reason not to again go against the Tigers.
Detroit is in turmoil right now, and I really can’t see how Brad Ausmus will be managing the team much longer. There is reportedly a poor clubhouse atmosphere and I don’t think that’s just idol gossip.
The walkoff win a few days ago vs. the Rays was revealing. Cabrera bombs one out to win the game, but you’d have never known it the way he rounded the bases. I also noticed what to me was a clearly irritated Cabrera in Sunday’s game. The Tiger pitcher kept throwing to first in one sequence, and Cabrera glared into the dugout at one point, and looked totally aggravated.
Seattle has lefty Ariel Miranda on the mound and there’s always a concern over his control lapses. But for whatever reason, those issues have been arising on the road and not at Safeco, where Miranda has been outstanding for the most part.
The bottom line here is that Tigers are in fade mode right now, and that’s what I’ll do again here with the play on the Mariners.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9½
wo of the weaker hitting teams in the league matched up in this one. The Phillies .395 slugging percentage on the season ranks them near the bottom of the majors and the Cardinals .416 mark also ranks them in the lower third of the majors. That said, even though the Cardinals Mike Leake and the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson have had some struggles, they are both fully capable of coming up with solid outings in this spot. Leake shutout the Phillies for 7 innings in his most recent start against them. Hellickson has held the Cardinals to 5 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts versus St Louis and both of them stayed under the total. Leake actually has pitched better on the road compared to at home this season with a 2.95 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and a 4-2 mark in his 6 starts away from home this year. The under is 4-1-1 in those 6 Leake outings. Hellickson is off of a poor start in his most recent outing but he had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 prior starts! Only 3 of Hellickson's 14 starts this season have resulted in an over. The Phils ocme into this game having had just 2 overs in their last 11 games. The past 3 seasons combined the Cardinals have had 28 road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 11 of 28 have resulted in an over. Take advantage of the big O/U posted on this NL match-up.
Brad Diamond
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Cardinals -154
Difficult to assess the mental in the Phillies clubhouse with the worst record in baseball, and on a 1-11 run coming into Tuesday. They have only won 22 games out of 68 on the schedule and show 12-34 off a loss. St. Louis has their own power shortage along with a road bullpen carrying a 5.01 ERA. Over the last seven games, the Cards bring a 2-5 record with club ERA of 9.39. St. Louis will depend on RHP Leake who is 4-0 against the NL East, while the club is 10-2. On the road, the Cards are a perfect 8-0 against.
Mike Lundin
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +103
The Pittsburgh Pirates won the series opener 8-1 on Monday, and I think they'll come out strong here in the second game of the set as well.
Chad Kuhl (1-6, 5.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Pirates. The right-hander has had a tough year, and Pittsburgh has lost each of his last four starts. Kuhl himself has pitched pretty well lately though, allowing only six runs on 11 hits in a total of 15 innings through his last three starts combined.
Kuhl is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers who turn to Zach Davies (7-3, 4.91 ERA) who unlike Kuhl has pitched pretty poorly but been bailed out by the Brewers bats.
Davies has conceded a total of eight runs (nine earned) on 13 hits with a pair of homers in 10 innings through his last two starts combined. Davies is 1-2 with a bloated 9.56 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee is 38-34 on the season, but just 19-21 home at Miller Park. Let's go with the Pirates as Tuesday's free pick.
Ray Monohan
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks -110
The Diamondbacks and the Rockies start a series on Tuesday night, and with the pitching match up on the mound the Diamondbacks are a huge value. On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Zack Greinke who has been good this year. He has a 8-3 record and an ERA right at 3.
He has already faced the Rockies twice this year, and both games went deep into the game and only gave up a total of five runs. On the mound for the Rockies is German Marquez. He has been very inconsistent this year. In his only start this year against the Diamondbacks at home he gave up five runs. Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Rockies are 0-4 in Marquezs last 4 starts vs. National League West.
Stephen Nover
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Under 11
I understand that it's hard to make a case for the under when the starting pitching matchup is Josh Tomlin versus Chris Tillman and the game is at Camden Yards. But the total is high here, the Orioles have injuries and Tillman is overdue for improvement. Tomlin is a better road pitcher. The under actually has cashed in seven of his last eight road starts. Slated home plate umpire Kerwin Danley has had a slight under bias during the past two seasons. The Orioles are down slugging first baseman Chris Davis and now shortstop J.J. Hardy is out. Hardy is past his prime, but with infielder Ryan Flaherty also on the DL the Orioles' shortstop choices become Ruben Tejada, or Paul Janish. Neither can hit, nor have power. Hardy at least wasn't an automatic out. The Indians are missing a key offensive player, too, with outfielder Michael Brantley going on the DL.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -110
Pittsburgh won Monday's matchup, but the Pirates still are 23-63 their last 86 games at Milwaukee. Pittsburgh has lost Chad Kuhl's last six road starts and 10 of his last 13 overall. Kuhl is 1-6 with a 7.38 ERA in night games this season and he has a 5.61 ERA overall. The right-hander has not won a decision since April 8 against Atlanta and hasn't made it past five innings since April 18. Milwaukee has won nine of Zach Davies' last 11 starts and four of his last five home starts. Davies faced the Pirates once this year and allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh is 13-20 on the road and 10-20 its last 30 games against NL Central teams. First-place Milwaukee has won five of its last seven games.
Ben Burns
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9
Recent form from these starting pitchers suggests that we’ll have a slugfest on our hands in this particular matchup. The Cards turn to Mike Leake (5-5, 2.70 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits while striking out just three in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Leake’s initial season numbers (1.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), were obviously unsustainable and the veteran has now allowed 18 runs over his last 24.2 innings of work (posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in that span). Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91) can empathize with his struggling counterpart after getting rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings, striking out just one and walking three. After a great start to the 2017 campaign, Hellickson has been a disaster, gong 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA over his last nine starts (also a 23:20 K:BB in 47 innings). And note that Hellickson has been poor at home as well this season, just 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA. More questions than answers right now for each of these starters, consider the over.
Marc Lawrence
Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland +110
Edges - A’s: Gray 4-1 career home team starts in this series, including 3-0 the last three; and 4-1 with 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP home team starts as opposed to 0-4 with 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP away team starts this season… Astros: Martes off 1st MLB career win in last start… With the host 8-1 in Gray’s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play in Oakland.
Tony Karpinski
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks -105
This Arizona team is full of a bunch of great hitters - that in situations like this their best effort will show up tough. Arizona is still the best in the toughest division in the majors the 3 team strong NL West. It is a genuine shame a probable 98-100 win team isn't going to make it from here that absolutely should
The D-Backs are slightly better but that's it. Colorado is a power team - that if they were in the AL Central or the NL Central division - would already have 50 wins. The D-Backs have just had the most balanced lineup in the division - and will continue to be so. Arz has a pitching edge here too with Zack Greinke who is 2-0, with 20K's and a 2.10 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Mike Anthony
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -135
Just another typical run scoring performance by the red hot Brewers. As Milwaukee recently ripped the St. Louis lineup by swinging hot bats - and taking advantage of well timed plays when they needed it. Brewers really aren't great - but they are playing some decent ball and truthfully, Pittsburgh is just that bad. Kuhl struggles with putting the ball in any of the corners vs decent batters, let alone hot ones. Pittsburgh has had problems with their pitching staff on the whole - and Kuhl isn't going to help that problem here. Pittsburgh should have been good enough with the few good bats they do have - but over the past couple of weeks we see it isn't. Milwaukee wins this one on Tuesday night.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles vs. New York
Play: New York -1.5
The Yanks return home off a 6 game losing streak. Home favorites in this range are 15-1 since 2004 off a 1 run road favored loss scoring 4 or less vs an opponent also off a loss. The Yanks average 6.6 runs here and have Pineda pitching. They have won 6 of his 7 home starts as he has a solid 1.96 home era. The Yanks are 7-1 at home if the total is 9 to 9.5. LA has lost 9 straight here and have Birdwell making his 2nd start against a tough lineup here. Look for the angels to drop their first game on Tuesday this year and fall to 11-1.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The set-up: The Indians surged into first place in the AL Central with a four-game sweep of the Twins in Minnesota, where they outscored them 28-8. The Indians then opened a four-game road series at Baltimore last night with a 12-0 pasting of the Orioles. Cleveland has now ripped off six consecutive victories while scoring a total of 52 runs (8.67 per), to move a season-high six games over .500 at 37-31. The Orioles were coming off wins Saturday and Sunday (had nine HRs!) but their pitching staff was ravaged for double-digit runs for the fifth time in 10 games. Baltimore also set an AL record by allowing at least five runs in 16 consecutive games (Orioles are 5-11 in that span). Baltimore was once 22-10 (in games played through May 9) but is now 34-35, having lost 25 of its last 37 games.
The pitching matchup: Two struggling starters take the mound Tuesday night, Josh Tomlin (4-8 & 5.83 ERA) for Cleveland and Chris Tillman (1-5 & 8.07 ERA) for Baltimore. Tomlin was victorious last time out versus the Los Angeles Dodgers but he was hardly impressive in allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. The Indians are 5-8 in Tomlin's starts this season (he's failed to complete three innings three different times) and on the season, opponents are batting .314 against him. Tomlin is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in his career vs. Orioles. Tillman takes the mound mired in a five-start losing streak. He was roughed up for five runs and a season-high 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings at the White Sox last time, which came on the heels of him allowing nine runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his previous outing. Tillman is 5-2 with a 4.17 ERA in eight career starts against the Indians (Baltimore is 5-3).
The pick: Can the Orioles really be this bad? No faith in either of tonight's starters but I'm going to give the home team a shot in this one.
Brandon Shively
Cincinnati vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays will face lefty Amir Garrett of the Reds in this one. Garrett has had some terrible starts in his last few outings. He has reportedly been struggling with his release point and that has caused some major issues for the young lefty. Garrett has potential in the future, but I think he is a solid fade until he proves he has things straightened out. Alex Cobb is a much better pitcher at home than on the road. The Reds are without star shortstop Zack Cozart. Look for Tampa Bay to bounce back from their loss on Monday night.