Jim Feist
Astros at Athletics
Pick: Under
Houston has a great pitching staff and heads to Oakland, a huge park, great for hitters. Houston is 9-3-3 under the total on the road. Oakland is one of the worst offensive team in baseball, #23 in runs, #26 in on-base percentage. At least they have their ace going in Sonny Gray, 2-0 at home with a 3.30 ERA. And the Under is 4-1 in Gray's last 5 home starts vs. the Astros.
Rocketman
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -102
he San Francisco Giants travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Tuesday night. San Francisco is 26-46 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 32-37 SU overall record on the season. Matt Moore is 2-7 with a 6.00 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA on the road this season and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA his last 3 starts. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.7 runs per game on grass and 3.7 runs per game at night this season. San Francisco is allowing 5.9 runs per game on the road this year and 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Atlanta is scoring 7.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of .314. San Francisco is 12-28 on the road this year. San Francisco is 16-31 this year against right handed starters. San Francisco is 6-15 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 17-9 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Wesley Scott
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Cardinals -152
The St. Louis Cardinals (31-37 Overall, 13-19 Away) face the Philadelphia Phillies (22-46 Overall, 13-18 Home) in game one of this three game series.
The Cardinals are 2-7 over their last nine games since sweeping the Phillies at home June 9-11. Today the Cards find themselves fives games back of NL Central leading Milwaukee, so this series is key.
Mike Leake (5-6 Overall, 3.14 ERA) takes the mound today for the Cardinals. Leake has lost four starts in a row, and has not been that good against the Phillies in his career. He is 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA.
Leake is 3-0 in his last five outing against the Phillies.
The Phillies are 24 games under .500 this season, and there is nothing to be happy about. Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91 ERA) gets his turn in the rotation.
Hellickson has struggled recently. He is 0-4 with a 7.57 ERA. For his career against the Cardinals he is 2-2, with a 4.91 ERA.
Doc's Sports
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +131
The Cleveland Indians visit Oriole Park on Tuesday, June 20, 2017 to play the Baltimore Orioles. The probable starters are Josh Tomlin for the Indians and Chris Tillman for the Orioles.
The opening line for this matchup has Cleveland at -127 and Baltimore at +117. The Indians have a 26-38-3 over/under record and a 27-40-0 run line mark. The Orioles are 31-37-0 against the run line and have a 37-29-2 over/under record.
Valuable Cleveland Indians Betting Trends
The Cleveland Indians are 26-38-3 against the over/under
The Cleveland Indians are 27-40-0 against the run line
Important Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 37-29-2 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 31-37-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Indians have a 36-31 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Josh Tomlin has a 4-8 record with an earned run average of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.38. He has 51 strikeouts over his 71 innings pitched and he's given up 92 hits. He allows 11.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.05. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.56 and they have given up 173 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .217 against the bullpen and they've struck out 239 hitters and walked 76 batters. As a team, Cleveland allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.93. The Indians pitchers collectively have given up 540 base hits and 258 earned runs. They have allowed 74 home runs this season, ranking them 26th in the league. Cleveland as a pitching staff has walked 197 batters and struck out 643. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.25 and their FIP as a unit is 3.68.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Cleveland is hitting .252, good for 17th in the league. The Indians hold a .434 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .328, which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Francisco Lindor is hitting .256 with an on-base percentage of .319. He has 66 hits this season in 258 at bats with 28 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .488 and an OPS+ of 104. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .261 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .377. He has totaled 60 hits and he has driven in 36 men in 230 at bats. His OPS+ is 123 while his slugging percentage is at .496. The Indians have 567 hits, including 133 doubles and 86 home runs. Cleveland has walked 240 times so far this season and they have struck out 483 times as a unit. They have left 451 men on base and have a team OPS of .761. They score 4.7 runs per contest and have scored a total of 315 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Baltimore has a 34-34 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 8.07, Chris Tillman has a 1-5 record and a 2.10 WHIP. He has 26 strikeouts over the 35.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 56 hits. He allows 14.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 6.27. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.27 and they have given up 261 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .265 against the Orioles bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 225 batters and walked 96 opposing hitters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 28th in the league in team earned run average at 4.97. The Orioles pitchers as a team have surrendered 670 base knocks and 336 earned runs this season. They have given up 102 home runs this year, which ranks 3rd in Major League Baseball. Baltimore as a staff has walked 256 hitters and struck out 492 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.52 while their FIP as a staff is 5.09.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .256, good for 12th in the league. The Orioles hold a .433 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 25th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 9.0 hits per contest. Jonathan Schoop comes into this matchup batting .289 with an OBP of .343. He has 70 hits this year along with 41 RBI in 242 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .533 with an OPS+ of 131. Mark Trumbo is hitting .263 this season and he has an OBP of .325. He has collected 71 hits in 270 at bats while driving in 33 runs. He has an OPS+ of 98 and a slugging percentage of .415. The Orioles as a unit have 609 base hits, including 115 doubles and 99 homers. Baltimore has walked 180 times this year and they have struck out on 607 occasions. They have had 450 men left on base and have an OPS of .745. They have scored 4.6 runs per game and totaled 313 runs this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
Instead of laying the massive money line on New York, I think the value is with the Yankees on the -1.5 run line. New York is going to be all business when they take the field for this contest, as they will be out to snap a 6-game losing streak. It's not like the Yankees haven't been competitive, as all 6 losses were by 3 runs or less. All 6 were also on the road. The Yankees are 22-9 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs/game.
This figures to be a great spot for New York's offense to put up a big number, as they take spot starter Parker Bridwell, who is making his second career start and I look for the nerves to really kick in pitching at Yankees Stadium. The good thing here is the offense doesn't figure to have to a ton to win here by 2 or more. NY will be giving the rock to Michael Pineda, who is 6-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in 7 home starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +116 over Baltimore
The second-place Indians went into Minnesota this past weekend for a three-day, four-game series at Target Field and swept the Twins out of first place, thoroughly thrashing Minnesota by a 28-8 aggregate score. In less than 48 hours the Twins went from surprising division leaders to looking like merely something that the defending American League champions had to step over on their inevitable climb back to the playoffs. The Indians then went into Baltimore last night and whacked the Orioles 12-0.
Where it all stands now is that the Indians are seeing beach balls at the plate while the Orioles are seeing BB gun pellets. Furthermore, the Orioles are coming to the park with the mindset that they have to score 10 runs or more to win because their pitching staff couldn’t get Bob Barker out right now. Long innings turn into long days. Long days in this summer heat take a bigger toll when a team is losing so frequently. What we have here is two teams with dramatic differences in mindset and it’s not in the Orioles favor. We can’t even imagine what is going through each individual’s mind on the Orioles, knowing they have to endure another start by Chris Tillman.
Shoulder issues plagued Chris Tillman down the stretch in 2016 and they resurfaced this spring, forcing Tillman to miss all of April. The results have been disastrous (8.07 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) through his first eight starts and there is not a single hint that things are going to get better. Never a control artist, Tillman hasn't been able to hit water from the boat in 2017. His awful first-pitch strike rate and Ball% say that he's deserved the 19 walks he’s issued in 36 frames. In a year when most velocities are up—thanks to different measurement technology—Tillman's has sunk. His meager 7% swing and miss rate says the soft-tossing is here to stay. Sure, he's been hit with some bad luck, but Tillman’s 6.97 xERA and his other skills confirm things have gone off the rails. This type of skills collapse typically reeks of a hidden injury, and given Tillman's April shoulder issues, it's likely that something still isn't right with his arm. With a drop in velocity and his inability to throw strikes or miss bats, Tillman is about to face the hottest hitting team in the majors. We know exactly what to do.
N.Y. Mets +167 over LOS ANGELES
Cody Bellinger is the talk of MLB right now with his record breaking 21st jack last night in his first 51 games. The previous record was 20 HR’s in 51 games but the point is with all that hype surrounding a player and team, one will pay a hefty and inflated price to back the Dodgers here with Brandon McCarthy taking the mound. McCarthy is a very decent pitcher but he’s not worthy of a price like this against a healthy and dangerous Mets’ lineup that scored six runs against Clayton Kershaw last night.
McCarthy has walked just 17 batters in 63 innings while striking out 51. That’s good, not great. His 3.14 ERA after 11 starts has also influenced this price but his xERA of 3.90 reveals the risk. In fact, McCarthy’s xERA over his past two starts was 6.35. McCarthy is 11 starts into the year after throwing just 26 innings all of last year, 14 months after TJS. A calf injury slowed him down last year, hip woes DLed him and he logged 14 innings (15 runs) afterward. Plenty of recent skills but we’ve seen him fall off a cliff too many times in the past to trust him as this big a favorite in this spot. Yeah, he could pitch well but he could also get blown up, as his 10% swing and miss rate, recent xERA’s and past history suggests.
Last year was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase. Robert Gsellman’s strikeout rate was higher in the majors than the 6.0 K’s/9 he posted in his 207 IP in the upper minors. On paper, Robert Gsellman has not pitched well in 2017 (5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) but his skills haven't been as bad as his stats might indicate and they've actually been really good over his last five starts with 8.2 K’s/9, 1.8 BB’s/9, 49% grounders and a 3.90 xERA. That xERA is the exact same as McCarthy’s but one of these guys is almost a 2-1 favorite. As value bettors, that makes our choice for this game an easy one.
Pittsburgh +106 over MILWAUKEE
When Zach Davies is favored, he’s instant fade material because he’s always at the mercy of batted balls in play (BABIP). In 73 frames, Davies has a weak BB/K split of 26/51. Our threshold for WHIP is 1.30. Anything above that puts a pitcher at the mercy of his strand rate. Davies WHIP is 1.54 so not only is he at the mercy of BABIP, he’s also at the mercy of his strand rate. Throwing 89 MPH with a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate, Davies has more value to the Brewers than he has to you. His ERA/xERA split 4.91/4.83 tells us he’s going to allow five runs a game more times than not and that’s always worth fading.
Chad Kuhl is so close to being wickedly good but his surface stats say otherwise.(5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). However, look under the hood and it’s an entirely different story. Kuhl’s skills with the bases empty are outstanding (2.71 xERA) but with runners on they’re not so good (5.22 xERA). With runners on, Kuhl throws more balls and strikes out less batters. That’s not unusual for young starters but with a minor tweak or two, it’s a correctable trait. What sticks out to us is Kuhl’s 14% swing and miss rate and his 51%/17%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his last six starts. Hisa groundball rate in his last start was 67%. Kuhl’s xERA over his last five starts is 3.27. He’s working with the best pitching coach in the league and while his improvements are steadily gradual, they have gone mostly unnoticed. Chad Kuhl can pitch and he’ll now face a Brewers’ team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Kuhl is quickly going to turn his skills in an attractive target and we’ll put that to the test here.
COLORADO -1½ +171 over Arizona
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
13-16 + 23.40 units
Power Sports
Angels vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Admittedly, this line is getting bet up significantly, so potentially you may want to look at the run line (-1.5). Regardless, I envision an easy win for the team in pinstripes here. Now, it must be pointed out that the Yanks return home on a six-game losing streak. But the entirety of that skid took place on the road. Two of the games were in Los Angeles against the Angels. Michael Pineda dropped the final game of that series, but he gets a second straight crack at the Halos tonight and it should go a lot better than the first go around.
This time, Pineda will face Parker Bridwell. This will be just the second career start at the big league level for Bridwell, who only managed to turn in a 4.28 ERA in five starts at Triple A. His first big league start was last month and he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings. That was against a bad Atlanta team. The Halos come into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Kansas City.
Pineda is having a strong season, especially when pitching here in the Bronx. His team start record at home is 6-1 and that's w/ a 1.96 ERA and 0.891 WHIP. Facing a lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer 38 times this season (over 50% of the time!) should be a cakewalk. I'm not sure what happened when he faced the Angels last week, but I'm willing to simply chalk it up as as "being on the road."
Kevin Rogers
Nationals at Marlins
Play: Marlins +103
The Marlins went through a stretch last month where it posted a 1-8 homestand against the Cardinals, Braves, and Astros. Since then, Miami has been on fire at home by winning 11 of 13 at Marlins Park, including Monday's exciting 8-7 win after erasing a 6-0 deficit to Washington. Edinson Volquez wasn't sharp in his last start against Oakland by allowing 5 runs in four innings of work, but his offense bailed him out in an 11-6 win. Volquez has allowed three hits and one run in his last two home starts, including a no-hitter agianst Arizona. Gio Gonzalez owns a 6-1 mark for Washington, while coming off four consecutive quality starts. The Miami native is winless in his last two starts at Marlins Park as he is making his first start there since 2015. I'll back the Marlins to stay hot at home and beat the Nationals.
Sleepyj
Angels at Yankees
Play: Yankees
I feel the Yanks back at home will play rather well..Pineda will be on the hill and he has been very good at home..Angels make the cross country travel and they go with a very inexperienced guy on the mound in Bridwell..His numbers aren't that impressive..It might be a long night for him...Total at 9.5, I have to think the Yanks do the majority of the scoring here..So laying the RL is the way to go here.
Stephen Nover
Indians at Orioles
Play: Under 10½
I understand that it's hard to make a case for the under when the starting pitching matchup is Josh Tomlin versus Chris Tillman and the game is at Camden Yards.
But the total is high here, the Orioles have injuries and Tillman is overdue for improvement.
Tomlin is a better road pitcher. The under actually has cashed in seven of his last eight road starts. Slated home plate umpire Kerwin Danley has had a slight under bias during the past two seasons.
The Orioles are down slugging first baseman Chris Davis and now shortstop J.J. Hardy is out. Hardy is past his prime, but with infielder Ryan Flaherty also on the DL the Orioles' shortstop choices become Ruben Tejada, or Paul Janish. Neither can hit, nor have power. Hardy at least wasn't an automatic out.
The Indians are missing a key offensive player, too, with outfielder Michael Brantley going on the DL.
Goodfella
Marlins TT Over 4
Not only have these Marlins had success vs an IMO over-valued Gio, but the Fish also really excel vs LH pitching. They rank 6th in .OPS vs LH pitching for all MLB teams & I do expect them to get to Gio eventually. Then we get into that poor Nats bullpen. I'm on the FISH Team Total going OVER 4 runs in this spot on Tuesday Night.
Brandon Lee
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks -102
Even though the Rockies are at home and have won 5 straight, the Diamondbacks are the smart play in this one. Arizona has a massive edge on the mound with Zack Greinke facing off against German Marquez. Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 14 starts and has a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 outings. Marquez has a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts and a 5.54 ERA over his last 3 outings. Diamondbacks offense is every bit as potent as the Rockies and come in swinging a hot bat. Arizona is averaging 5.4 runs/game and hitting .306 with a .368 OBP as a team over their last 7 games. Look for the offense to do more than enough here to secure a victory behind their ace.
Teddy Davis
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Over 11
Sure this seems like a tall task and maybe both offenses fall flat. It's just hard to see it here as Liriano really struggles on the road with a 8.16 ERA. Martinez for the Rangers is in bad form himself with a 6.46 ERA his last three starts.
Both teams are swinging hot bats right now also. The Rangers have gone over the total 4 of their last 5 games. They have scored a total of 29 runs combined their last 4 games. The Blue Jays have really turned the corner from the start of their season. The total has gone over for them in 5 of their last 6 games. 3 of their last 5 games they have combined for over 10 hits in those games.
Jack Jones
Giants vs. Braves
Play:Braves -112
The San Francisco Giants are 26-46 on the season. Oh how far they've fallen as they are 20 games under .500 on the season after losing seven straight, including a 9-0 loss to the Braves yesterday. They just can't do anything right.
Julio Teheran got off to a rough start this season, but he's been much better of late, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 3 runs in 13 innings. Teheran is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in five career starts against the Giants.
We'll gladly fade Matt Moore, who is 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in eight road starts this season, and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts overall. And the Braves have quietly dominated left-handed starters, hitting .298 and scoring 5.3 runs per game against them this season.
The Giants are 1-8 in Moore's last nine road starts. San Francisco is 1-9 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. NL West opponents. Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts.
John Martin
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +109
The Miami Marlins are playing some very good baseball of late. They are 7-4 in their last 11 games and have scored at least 5 runs in nine of those games. They come in with confidence after erasing an early 6-0 deficit to beat the Nationals 7-6 yesterday. Now red-hot starter Edinson Volquez gets the ball after going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter. Volquez has owned the Nationals of late, going 1-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last four starts against them, yielding only 4 earned runs in 25 innings. The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.