Larry Wallace
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks -102
Going with the Dbacks here. This should be a really good series with 2 of the best records in MLB this year. Colorado is on a five-game winning streak but is merely the second-hottest team in the bunch, with the Diamondbacks coming into the series 5-0 on its current eight-game road trip and riding a string of seven consecutive wins and 10 of 11 overall. Greinke was solid in a pair of starts against Colorado earlier this season, going 1-0 while yielding a total of five runs in 13 innings and striking out 16. The 33-year-old owns 104 strikeouts in 90 total innings and is limiting opponents to a .222 batting average. Marquez failed to make it through six innings in any of his last four starts but is coming off a win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday in which he allowed one run and four hits in five frames. The Venezuela native surrendered one or no earned runs in five of his last seven outings. Marquez struck out eight in six scoreless innings at Arizona on April 30 but was not as sharp against the Diamondbacks on May 5, when he was knocked around for five runs in six frames.
Dave Price
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Indians -138
The Key: It took a while for the Cleveland Indians to get over their World Series hangover, but they appear to have turned the corner. They have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games while scoring a combined 52 runs in the 6 wins. They have outscored their opponents 52-13 during this stretch. Now they should continue to rake against Chris Tillman, who is 1-5 with an 8.08 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in 8 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 12.09 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 12-1 in road games after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 18-8 in Tomlin's last 26 road starts. The Orioles are 0-5 in Tillman's last 5 starts. Baltimore is 0-7 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
ASA
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -143
The Rays lost to the Reds yesterday but Cincinnati had lost 9 straight games prior to that rare road win. On the season the Reds are still just 11-21 in road games. Cincinnati will have Amir Garrett toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening and the southpaw is winless with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb and the Rays right-hander has a solid 3.27 ERA in his home starts this season. Before the loss yesterday, Tampa had won 5 of their last 6 home games. Also, TB is 8-5 (+3.7 net units) in games where the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We look for the Rays to bounce back and quickly send the Reds back to their losing ways. Cobb is the better pitcher and we've got a huge home field edge too considering how badly Cincinnati has played on the road this season. Lastly, the Reds have lost 5 straight Garrett starts and 7 of his last 9. We're happy to lay a very fair price here considering the above factors favoring a home rout in this one.
Jesse Schule
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
The weather conditions in Baltimore have favored hitters during the Orioles recent home stand. They lost 12-0 to the Indians last night, and each of their last four games has seen at least 12 runs scored. Two struggling pitchers take the mound at Camden Yards tonight, and another slugfest seems likely.
Josh Tomlin will toe the slab for the Tribe, and he hasn't been missing many bats this year. Tomlin (4-8, 5.83 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings in a 12-5 home win over the Dodgers his last time out. He hasn't fooled the Orioles, who are hitting a combined .359 over a total of 63 at bats against him in past meetings.
The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman, who has surrendered at least five runs in four straight starts. Tillman (1-5, 8.07 ERA) was torched for five runs on 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Chicago his last time out. He actually has great career numbers versus the Indians, but the veteran seems out of sorts this season.
The Orioles have gone over in seven straight home games, and 13 of their last 16 versus a right-handed starter.
Wunderdog
Washington @ Miami
Pick: Miami +110
The Washington Nationals let a 6-0 lead slip away last night, and were walked off by the red-hot Miami Marlins 8-7. The Marlins may be six games under .500, but they have played like a contender over their last 21 games where they are 14-7. Four of their seven losses have come by a single run, and two others by just two runs, so they have been in all but one game right down to the final frame. They have been averaging six runs a game and allowing fewer than four, and on average have won by 2+ runs per contest over their last 21. Better than that, they are 10-1 at home over the stretch with the only blemish to Arizona and Zack Grienke by a one-run margin. The Nationals have been leaking oil at just 5-8 over their last 13.
Otto Sports
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Play: St. Louis & Over
Currently ranked among the top 10 qualified starter with a negative ERA-FIP differential (4.91 ERA-5.91 FIP), Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson is no doubt fortunate his ERA isn't higher. Like his counterpart tonight, Mike Leake, Hellickson pitched out of his mind the first part of the season (5 starts, 1.80 ERA) but has come crashing down with a near 7.00 ERA over his last nine starts. During that span of 47 innings, the veteran righty has a 23-20 K-to-BB ratio while allowing 13 home runs. He's currently as bad a starter as there is in the National League. Speaking of regression, after posting a sub-2.00 ERA through his first nine starts, Leake has seen his ERA rise well over a run thanks to a 6.20 ERA (24.2 IP, 17 ERs). His overall performance this season, however, is far more "real" than that of Hellickson. Leake currently owns career bests in both groundball rate (54.9%) and swinging strike rate (8.2%). Not to mention that stretch of regression came against four of the NL's better offenses (Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers). Here he faces a big step down in class with the Phillies near the bottom of MLB in most offensive categories. A lot of the value with both St. Louis (-140 to -160) and total (9 to 9.5) was taken out early but those remain the preferred ways to play this contest.
Jack Brayman
Now on an 8-5 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Los Angeles for tonight's freebie, as I like the Dodgers on the Run Line, as they'll get things done against the New York Mets
On the heels of concluding their six-game road trip by sweeping the Cincinnati Reds, the Los Dodgers opened a nine-game homestand with a blowout win over the Mets last night.
Tonight I'll back the Dodgers, who are one-half game back of the National League West-leading Colorado Rockies. Los Angeles has won four straight and 10 of 11, and will hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy tonight.
That said, it's not a bad thing going into this one, I can tell you I don't mind having McCarthy on the hill for us. The right-hander has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. He scattered three hits over 5.1 innings his last time out, a no-decision in Cleveland, where he allowed just one earned run.
New York traveled cross country and had to play last night's series-opener with no rest. Tonight the Mets are back on the field for another 10:10 p.m. eastern start.
The Mets have lost seven of their last eight against National League West foes, and will get trounced in this one.
Play Los Angeles on the run line.
2* DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Tuesday comp play is for the runs to add up at Camden Yards when the Indians and Orioles resume their 4 game set.
Last night, Baltimore was skunked, but thanks to Cleveland's dozen runs plated, the game did indeed land Over the total.
That Over put the Tribe at a modest 5-3 Over the total in their last 8 games.
As for the O's, it has been a different story, as Baltimore has played Overs in 4 in a row, and 12 of their last 15 overall!
It will be Josh Tomlin and Chris Tillman to the hill, and both have sky-high ERA's for the season. Tomlin's standing at 5.83, while Tillman's has reached 8.07!
Over his last 3, Tomlin's ERA is an even 6, while Tillman's is over 12!!!
Hard to imagine a pitcher's duel busting out in Charm City, so look for the hitting to once again dominate, and for the runs to add up in a hurry.
Cleveland-Baltimore Over the total.
5* CLEVELAND-BALTIMORE OVER
Brad Wilton
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Seattle Mariners over the Detroit Tigers, as the two continue their series in the Pacific Northwest. I scored with the M's last night, and tonight I'm rolling with them again. Do not worry about listing pitchers for this one.
It's the second game of a four-game set, the Mariners will take full advantage of the struggling Tigers, who have lost four in a row. Detroit has also dropped seven of 10, and is a mere 14-21 on the highway.
Seattle, though it's sitting in fourth place in the American League West, is 21-13 at home. And while the M's rank eighth in the league with a .265 batting average, Detroit has a 5.21 ERA in the bigs, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
Let's stick with Seattle tonight for my free selection.
5* MARINERS
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays, in Interleague play against the Cincinnati Reds. And in this one, I want you listing ONLY Cincinnati's Amir Garrett.
I believe I've told you this before, and I'm repeating it once again, the disappointment that has set in for Garrett is real, and I'm going to continue to ride against him until he finds the groove he came into this league with.
Even though last Wednesday marked Garrett's first quality start in more than a month, I'm not convinced he is ready to face this lineup at Tropicana Field.
Garrett had a 5.09 ERA in April, he had an ERA of 6.95 in May and this month his ERA is 11.17, having allowed 12 earned runs over 9.2 innings of work. None of that will bode well against a Rays team that ranks eighth in the league with 346 runs scored this season.
Take the Rays tonight and list the Reds' Garrett only.
1* RAYS
Bruce Marshall
Nationals at Marlins
Pick: Marlins
Gio Gonzalez is enjoying a big campaign but has been a bit more vulnerable on the road, where his ERA is a not-so-great 4.09. Moreover, the Nats bullpen is proving less than reliable, which was the case when blowing a lead (once at 6-0) last night. The Marlins have won the last four starts made by Edinson Volquez (one of those a no-hitter on June 3), though he was a bit less sharp in his most-recent outing vs. the A's last Wednesday.
Buster Sports
Arizona at Colorado
Play: Under 11
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are two of the hottest teams in baseball and with the starting pitchers tonight we will be on the UNDER here. RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) will start for the Diamondbacks and Greinke has pitched great this year. His last start at Coors Field he allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. His opponent that day was the same opponent tonight RH German Marquez (5-3, 4.19 ERA) Marquez had a great May where he was 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA. He has had a little trouble in June but in his last start he was excellent holding the Pirates to 1 run over 5 innings. This game will have a playoff type atmosphere even though it is only June as the Diamondbacks sit only one back of the Rockies for first place in the NL West. The oddsmaker has this line at 11 at the time of this writing and that is only because the game is played at the bandbox which is Coors Field. We see both pitchers doing enough to keep this game close and UNDER the total.
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH (+110) over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh has owned Milwaukee at Miller Park and we look for that to continue again tonight. Pirates hammered Brewers 8-1 last night and have won eight of their last nine meetings at Miller Park.In addition to playing well in Milwaukee Pittsburgh has been playing well everywhere recently winning six of their last nine and tonight’s starting pitcher, Chad Kuhl is 3-0 lifetime against Brew Crew. Bucs!
Bob Balfe
Braves -115
I find good value in this line tonight at almost even money. The Giants are one of the worst in baseball at hitting right handers and the Braves are one of the best at hitting left handers. Atlanta at home should take care of a team that is really struggling to hit the baseball and register wins.