DAVE COKIN
NATIONALS AT DODGERS
PLAY: NATIONALS +110
I’ll go straight to the pitching numbers here. What I’m looking for is a starting pitcher advantage across the board in the categories I put the most weight on. If I can get a plus price, I’ll be looking to play the game, unless there are some mititgating circumstances that will take me off the play.
In this game, there’s admittedly mild concern with the Dodgers playing better baseball lately. But I’m also not putting a great deal of stock into three wins over MIlwaukee, and it’s worth noting that the Dodgers stil have a poor record when anyone other than Kershaw takes the mound.
Tanner Roark has been a little shaky lately, but he still grades out ahead of Scott Kazmir for the most part. I’ll grab the Nationals as the dog in this game.
Sleepyj
Oakland -148
Sonny Gray was solid in his last outing until he had one bad inning..He faced the Rangers lineup and at any time they can explode....Well that happened and he took a loss in that game..A's at home again with Gray on the mound should fair much better facing the Brewers...Brewers make a long trip out and facing Gray won;t be easy...I actually think the A's can get after nelson for enough runs here..Lean under as well.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
The Pirates off a big win over Bumgarner last night are 12 of 14 under at home off a home win scoring 2 or less runs. They qualify in a solid 80% league wide totals system that pertains to home dogs off a home dog win where both teams scored 2 or less runs. SF has played under in 9 of 11 on Tuesdays. Cueto for the Giants has a solid 2.10 era and a 2.23 era vs the Pirates. W.Boscan making his first start for the Pirates was solid in AAA and there 6 score less last out. Play this one under.
Ben Burns
Brewers vs. A's
Play: A's -135
Admittedly, Gray's overall stats aren't very good. The boxscore also shows that he got roughed up for five runs last time out. However, there are signs that he's coming around. A closer look at his last start reveals that he actually took a shutout into the sixth inning of that game. Also, in his previous start, he allowed only two earned runs in 7 2/3 innings. Overall, he's got a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in three June starts. Keep in mind that Gray was 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 2015, 33-22 the previous three seasons.
Nelson, on the other hand, is in terrible current form. In three June starts, he's 0-3 with a 9.69 ERA and an obscene 2.38 WHIP. For the season, he's 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA on the road. While Gray is a career winner, Nelson now has a 18-28 career record.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -136
We lost with the Chicago Cubs as the free pick yesterday, but I'm backing them to bounce back here in Game 2 of a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are 19-7 in their past 26 games following a loss and send Jason Hammel to the mound for Tuesday's contest.
Hammel (7-2, 2.26 ERA) has been terrific all year and held the Nats to one run on five hits in seven innings at Washington his last time out. He's 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA and a .196 batting average against in five starts home at Wrigley on the year and he's won two starts against the Cardinals already this season, yielding just two runs in 13 1/3 innings of work.
The Cardinals turn to Adam Wainwright (5-4, 4.78 ERA) who was tagged with three runs over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on May 23 in St. Louis. Wainwright is coming off seven scoreless innings against Houston, but the Cards still lost the game 4-1. Wainwright has posted a 6.02 ERA in seven road starts on thee year, giving up 45 hits and 12 walks through 40 1/3 frames.
Cubs are 6-0 in their last six after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. I expect them to give Wainwright a hard time tonight.
Martin Griffiths
Croatia vs. Spain
Play: Draw +208
Spain are through already and Croatia are basically through to the next round as well, however the Croats let themselves down badly against the Czech Republic giving up a 2 goal lead and will want to make amends, whereas the Spanish are likely to field a changed team for this final Group D game for this pair.
Spain put on the style in their last game against Turkey, but some perspective is required, they were playing a very weak team and winning 3-0 does not mean that the Spanish are back to their very best, not yet.
So, what we have here is a team already qualified and likely to make a few changes against a team that almost certainly qualified as well but who are smarting from their last game after giving up a 2 goal lead.
All that makes for a tricky affair and while Spain are the better team I am not convinced that they will win this game, a lot depends on the changes they make and how Croatia approach the game and all things considered I believe the most likely outcome will be a draw.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -160
Edges - Yankees; Ivan Nova 3-1 as a favorite, and 4-2night team starts this season. Rockies: Chad Bettis 1-5 night team starts this season. With Nova sporting a 3.47 ERA at home as opposed to a 5.87 ERA away this series, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Jim Feist
Reds vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9½
Texas, is an easy home run park and the Reds pick up the DH for this interleague series. Cincinnati is on a 9-4-1 run over the total on the road, plus 11-4-1 over away against a right-handed starter. Anthony DeSclafani goes for the Reds with a good ERA, but don't be fooled: He's thrown only 8+ innings and has allowed 20 base runners! The Over is 18-7-1 in Reds last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Texas has a Top 11 offense and is 10-1-1 over the total in Colby Lewis' last 12 interleague starts. He has a great road ERA but it is 4.50 ERA in this park. And the Over is 18-7-1 in Lewis' last 26 starts with 4 days of rest.
Matt Josephs
Rays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8
For the second straight day, I'll turn to the under in this series although I'm hoping for better results. Blake Snell is making his third major league start and he's allowed just two earned runs and 10 hits so far. The southpaw has nine strikeouts to just four walks. He'll face the same Indians team who has had their problems with lefties in the past. Snell should be able to go deeper then he did last time if his defense helps him out more. Corey Kluber is 6-7 with a 4.23 ERA in 14 starts for the Tribe. He took the loss in a low scoring affair in Tampa back in April giving up three runs and four hits in just over seven innings of work. Logan Forsythe (3-12), Brandon Guyer (0-8.), Brad Miller (1-11) and Steven Souza Jr. (0-6) all have poor numbers against the star. Tampa entered Monday night hitting .226 against right-handed starts this season. Both bullpens have good numbers. I think this one should go under the total.
Bob Harvey
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 9
The Chicago White Sox send Chris Sale to the mound as they go for their second straight victory over the Red Sox in Boston. The Bosox and Clay Bucholz are moneyline favorites of -110. The total is 9.
The White Sox (33-36, 31-38 RL) captured the opener of the four-game series 3-1, cashing as a +190 underdog. Jose Abreu doubled in the go-ahead runs in the 10th inning and is 6-for-14 with a home run and three doubles in the last three games.
The Red Sox (39-29, 38-30 RL) boast the highest scoring offense in baseball but were held to just five hits in Monday’s loss. Boston has lost five of their last eight games and scored four or fewer runs in six of those contests.
Sale (11-2, 2.94 ERA) leads the AL in wins and is allowing opponents a stingy .218 batting average but he’s struggled of late. His ERA is a bloated 6.07 ERA over his last five starts but earned a win last time out while holding the Detroit Tigers to three runs in seven innings. He is 1-1 with a 2.51 ERA in nine career games (four starts) against Boston.
Bucholz (3-6, 5.86 ERA) is getting another chance to earn a spot in the rotation after being banished to long relief duty at the end of May. He is 3-3 with a 4.04 ERA in nine career starts against the White Sox.
Chicago is 3-14 in its last 17 road games and 9-24 last 33 overall. Boston is 17-8 in its past 25 home games but 3-8 in Bucholz’s last 11 starts. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings.
Jesse Schule
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -125
The Tigers won Game 1 of this home series versus Seattle in dramatic fashion, with Justin Upton hitting a walkoff single in the bottom of the 12th inning. The Mariners have lost seven of their last nine overall, and it doesn't get any easier facing the Tigers ace tonight. Justin Verlander is quietly having a fantastic season for the Tigers, and he comes into tonight's game off three straight wins. Verlander (7-5, 3.87 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits, striking out seven in seven innings in a win at Kansas City his last time out. He's 4-2 with a 3.26 ERA in seven home starts this season. The Mariners hand the ball to James Paxton, who makes just his fifth start of the season. Paxton (1-2, 2.86 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 6-4 win at Tampa his last time out. The southpaw will have his hands full with Miguel Cabrera, who was 2-for-5 with a home run and a pair of RBIs in Game 1. Miggy is batting .385 at home this season, and he's 3-for-5 lifetime versus Paxton.
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Boston
Pick: Chicago
Clay Buchholz allowed six runs on seven hits (including three HRs) in five innings against the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park back on May 26. He was dropped from the rotation after that outing but due to his work in relief, as well as the struggles of others in the Boston starting rotation, the veteran right-hander returns from his exile to make a start tonight. "It is a combination (of factors for his return) and if Clay can build on the three innings (of relief last Thursday) and the majority of the appearances coming out of the bullpen, we're moving closer to what has typically been Clay's performance level here in the big league," Red Sox manager John Farrell said before Monday night's game.
With Buchholz in the bullpen, both Eduardo Rodriguez and Roenis Elias failed as starters. Rodriguez starts Wednesday but Elias is back in the minor leagues after one dismal start. "We need more consistency out of those two (Nos. 4-5) slots," Farrell said. "We fully believe that the talent is (there) among the two guys in Eddie and (Buchholz). We get them on track, this is a deeper rotation." Buchholz is 3-6 with a 5.86 ERA in 10 starts this season with Boston going 3-7 or minus-$597 at $100/game.
Buchholz is back on the hill for the first time since late May and is 3-3 with a 4.04 ERA in nine career starts against Chicago (Boston is 6-3 in those starts).
More bad news comes Boston and Buchholz’s way in the form of Chicago’s starter, Chris Sale. The Chicago is lefty is 11-2 with a 2.94 ERA on the season with the White Sox going 11-3 (plus-$636). That said, it MUST be noted that Sale has struggled over his last five starts, posting a 6.07 ERA. Still, he leads the AL in wins and is allowing opponents a stingy .218 batting average. Sale is 1-1 with a 2.51 ERA in nine career games (four starts / team is 0-4!) against Boston. Is that a worry? It may be but Boston collected just five hits in Monday’s 3-1 loss to Chicago, failing to score in the ninth inning despite loading the bases with no outs.
The Red Sox enter this contest having lost FIVE of its last eight games and has scored four or less runs in SIX of those contests. The bet is on the White Sox.
Bruce Marshall
Kansas City at New York
Pick: Kansas City
Winners of 8 of their last 9, Kansas City will be a confident underdog tonight at Citi Field, where the Mets look to gain revenge for their World Series loss last autumn. New York, however, enters the game after being swept at home by the lowly Braves, with the offense stalled in the process, lending hope that Royals starter Ian Kennedy could avoid the long ball (something that he hasn't in his last three starts, allowing eight round-trippers) for the five or so innings that he will have to work. Give the hot Royals bats a shot at solving hard-throwing Mets starter Noah Syndergaard.
Pavlos Laguretos
United States vs Argentina
Play: Argentina -1 -140
The minimum goal for USA was their presence in the semi-finals, and since fate brought them against the biggest favorites, Argentina, their work is cut out for them. To make matters worse, 3 players are unavailable for team USA due to suspension. Argentina are coming into this match in the back of a 4-1 easy win against Venezuela, and they are hoping they can win this tournament for the first time after 23 years and 3 failed finals.
The initial goal for USA is reached, their presence in the semi-finals was a must, considering that they are the hosts of this year’s Copa America Centenario. In the quarter final against Ecuador, it didn’t take long for team USA to open the score, as they entered the match with very much enthusiasm and confidence. Clint Dempsey struck a nice header in the 22nd minute to open the score and after a few dangerous chances created by Ecuador, team US managed to double their goals in the 65th minute, when Dempsey served an easy goal to Gyasi Zardes who just pushed the ball in the back of the net. Ecuador pushed and managed to score in the 74th minute, which worried USA for a bit, as they were close to equalising at least three more times. Klinsmann will not be able to count on the services of Jermaine Jones after he was sent-off, and also Alejandor Bedoya and Bobby Wood who accumulated yellow cards.
Argentina were dominant in their game once again, after they overcame the obcstacle that was Venezuela fairly easily with 4-1. Argentina were up by 2-0 with two goals by Gonzalo Higuain before the half hour mark. In the final moments of the first half, goalkeeper Romero showed cold blood and deflected a penalty kick by Seijas. Argentina exploited their opponents mistakes, with Messi and Lamela scoring one goal each for the final 4-1. Lionel Messi was once again in the spotlight who scored a goal and handed out two assists. With his goal he is now tied in the first place of Argentina’s top scorers with legendary striker Gabriel Batistuta. Messi is also the player with the most assists(8.) in the history of the Copa America. Argentina will now be fully ready and prepared to play against USA, hoping to reach the final and contest their first Copa America trophy after 23 years. The last time they won was back in 1993, but they have reached the final three times ever since, having won none, with losses to Brazil in 2004 and 2007, and last year against Chile.
Argentina are plowing through every match with fierce spirit, and the coach and players feel that this year they have the perfect opportunity to capture this specific trophy after 23 years. They easily overcame Venezuela in their previous match and they will be looking to bring some momentum over to this game. On the other hand, USA will have the support of the fans, but they will be missing 3 key players in their squad. I think that USA’s campaign will end here, it will be a huge upset if it doesn’t. Messi and the Argentines have a grade A opportunity to reach the final and have hopes to finally capture the elusive Copa America.
BUSTER SPORTS
Angels at Astros
Play: Over 8.5
The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Angels LH Hector Santiago (4-4, 5.30 ERA) and he goes up against the Astros RH Collin McHugh (5-5, 4.89).
Our selection will be on the over
Both these pitchers are not having the years they had expected. Santiago has really struggled in his last 3 starts with a 7.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.76. While McHugh also has struggled over his last 3 starts having a 5.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.595. These teams combined for 17 runs and 24 hits last night and we see more of the same tonight with these two struggling pitchers on the mound. We find the oddsmaker being generous here with the line set at 8 1/2 as our system has it set at 9 1/2. Lots of value here so we will take it.