Otto Sports
Seattle at Detroit
Play: Under 8.5
The buy sign appears to be on Seattle's James Paxton who has looked very sharp over his last three starts. Paxton's velocity is way up (mid-90's) which has his strikeout rate just below 12 per nine innings. He's also managed to improve his command with a respectable six walks over 22 innings. Despite command and mechanical issues throughout his career, Paxton still flashes an impressive 3.13 ERA over 187 innings. After a slow start to the year, Justin Verlander has found his stride -- and his ability to miss bats with 64 strikeouts over his last 58.1 innings. He's no doubt been a bit fortunate with only 75 hits allowed in 93 innings, but he's pitched like a middle-of-the-rotation arm for much of the season and I don't see any major "red flags" that scream serious regression at this point. What should also help both starters tonight is umpire Mark Ripperger who over last four seasons has produced nearly 61% unders over a 74 game sample. In 13 games behind the dish this season, his games have averaged only 5.6 runs. We'll look that way for tonight's contest with 8.5 even money currently widely available.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -1.5 -113
Miami right-hander Jose Fernandez remains one of the elite arms in baseball, going 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 2016. The 23-year-old is also 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home, 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at night, 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus division opponents and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in his last three outings.
Those phenomenal results are backed by equally-impressive peripherals: 2.00 FIP, 2.33 xFIP, 2.52 SIERA, 37.5% K% and a 29.5% K-BB%. At home, Fernandez owns a 1.52 FIP, 1.98 xFIP, 41.6% K%, 7.2% BB% and a 34.3% K-BB%. Technically speaking, the Marlins are 36-15 in Fernandez's last 51 starts, including 27-2 in his last 29 home starts, 11-1 in his last 12 home starts versus ,499 or worse opposition, 6-0 in his last six outings versus National League East foes and 4-0 in Fernandez's last four starts following a team loss.
Atlanta's offense, which is averaging just 3.4 runs per game this season (.235 AVG.; .296 OBP; .620 OPS), including 3.3 runs per game versus division opponents (.232 AVG.; .290 OBP; .604 OPS), will struggle to plate runs tonight against one of the best pitchers in the Majors. Meanwhile, 31-year-old Bud Norris toes the rubber for the Braves with a 4.81 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.38 xFIP and a 4.56 SIERA. Norris has not been a full-time starter since 2014 and, in fact, his last 20 appearances entering 2016 came in relief.
His command remains suspect at best (10.3% BB%) and he is 1-3 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.22 WHIP on the road and 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.68 WHIP versus division opponents this season. Norris also owns a 6.27 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in six career starts against the Marlins.
With Atlanta standing at a money-burning 20-50 in its last 70 road games, 16-40 in its last 56 road games versus a right-handed starter and 8-26 in its last 34 games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15, take the Marlins on the run line and invest with confidence.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics -143
Jimmy Nelson had a good first two months of the season but has suffered a meltdown in June as he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned), 23 hits and eight walks in only 13 innings. Milwaukee has lost his last three starts and the Brewers have lost their last three games overall and six of their last seven. Nelson has pitched well at home but the right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA on the road. Sonny Gray has been effective his last three starts except for one inning in his last appearance against Texas. He gave up just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings his previous two outings. Oakland has won 37 of its last 51 interleague home games and looks to avenge an earlier two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers earlier this month.
Dave Cokin
Phillies at Twins
Play: Phillies
The Phillies head to Minnesota off a disastrous home stand, where they went 0-6 for the first time since 1964. So they're not exactly go with material right now, and Aaron Nola has hit a bit of a bump in the road. But Tyler Duffey has been every bit as lousy as Nola, and I have more faith that the young Philly talent will get his act back together. If it's close toward the finish, I'd rather have the Phillies bullpen. The Twins have a losing record as chalk for the season, and have rarely been favored lately, so this looks like a decent value play to me on the Phillies to snap their losing streak this evening.
White Sox at Red Sox
Play: White Sox
Chris Sale really hasn't been pitching like the typical Chris Sale lately. The White Sox aren't hitting much and the early season euphoria this team was enjoying is long gone. But here's a chance for the Pale Hose to get something going. Boston has been having all kinds of troible filling that #5 starter slot. They've tried Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, Elias and now they're back to Buchholz again. I don't have a problem tring to beat the faded veteran righty, and I'm looking for Sale to get back on the beam. The Red Sox are obviously the better team, but getting Sale at this price is very enticing, and I'm taking the White Sox tonight.
Nelly
Seattle Mariners + over Detroit Tigers
After showing some promise in a brief call-up in 2014 James Paxton proved not ready for primetime struggling at the big league level last season. At nearly age 28, patience may be wearing thin for the left-hander with a big-time arm but in four starts so far this season Paxton may be finally realizing his potential. His strikeout rate in the small sample is nearly 11.9 K/9 and he owns a 2.86 ERA. Paxton has taken two losses in his four starts but seven unearned runs have been factored in with some tough breaks in his first two starts back with the Mariners. Paxton owns a very low ERA and FIP despite a .403 BABIP that is sure to come down and with his swing-and-miss rate the ceiling is very high for Paxton to help the Mariners chase down a playoff spot. Opposing Paxton will be one of the American League's best and most well known starters with Justin Verlander in the midst of a resurgent season. Verlander has been a big part of keeping the Tigers afloat at .500 so far this season but there is reason to be a little suspicious of the numbers for the former MVP and Cy Young winner. His BABIP is .271 as he has caught some breaks and his groundball rate is very similar to last season when the right-hander greatly struggled and well off the pace of his best seasons. Detroit has not been the strong hitting team vs. left-handed pitching that they generally have been in recent seasons, going just 8-10 this year vs. left-handed starters and batting 20 points worse as a team in those matchups. In contrast the Mariners are one of the league's best scoring teams vs. right-handed pitching posting 5.3 runs per game. Seattle is in a bit of a slide having lost seven of the last nine games on this long road trip but in last night's lengthy game the Mariners out-hit the Tigers 19-14 despite the loss and Seattle's bullpen was preserved better than Detroit's with the Tigers having five relievers pitch at least an inning. Verlander is capable of another good outing but Seattle looks promising in a bounce-back spot with underdog pricing.
Wunderdog
Phoenix @ Dallas
Pick: Dallas +2
Phoenix is winless on the road, last in the league in points allowed (88.2 points per game), ninth in rebounds and eighth in assists. The Mercury are on a 4-11 ATS run on the road, plus 3-8-1 ATS against a team with a losing straight-up record. Dallas has better balance, fifth in points, and fourth in rebounds. Dallas just beat this team at Phoenix in a wild 117-111 triple-overtime victory as a +7.5 dog. Dallas won despite trailing by 17 points in the third quarter. The Wings won the battle of the boards, 49-40, including 15-10 on the offensive glass and won the turnover battle. Now Dallas is home for its new fans, and is 16-7 ATS when following a spread cover. With the Mercury just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings on the road against Dallas, grab home court and back Dallas.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers -1.5 +104
The Rangers have now won seven in a row and stand 25-10 at home. Moreover, they've won their last eight in which Colby Lewis has starter, which he does again tonight. Lewis has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts, and only five runs over his last 23 IP covering three starts. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani couldn't get out of the third inning in his most recent start last Wednesday vs. the Braves.
Bob Balfe
White Sox -105
Whenever Clay Buchholz is even money I am going to go against him. On top of me not trusting Buchholz the scoring has been down the last week or so for Boston. This is a team that does hit left handed pitching well, but just has not faced them enough this year for me to take that number too seriously. Chris Sale has been excellent this year with his control and ability to strike men out.