SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -1½ -105 over Minnesota
Three of Drew Pomeranz’s 14 starts were responsible for nearly half of his earned runs this season. In the other 11 starts, the lefty has given up two or fewer runs. Pomeranz is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings, but he’s also one of the league leaders in pitches per inning (18.6) which has hampered his ability to get deep into games. That’s fine with us because Boston bullpen is among the best and by the time Pomeranz gets yanked, we expect the Red Sox to be up by seven runs or more.
This wager is all about fading Hector Santiago. One the things we have noticed this season is that starters coming off layoffs are getting torched. We have seen a slew of them get back into the rotation after missing two or more starts and not making it past three innings. Hector Santiago is a weak pitcher to begin with and now he’ll pitch for the first time since June 6th. In 65 innings, Santiago has walked 28 batters while striking out a mere 47. His groundball/fly-ball split is a vile 29%/50%. One simply cannot combine this many fly balls with this many free passes and hope to succeed. Santiago’s fortunate hit rate/strand rate combo have combined to shave at least one full run off his ERA in each of last five years. His ERA/xERA split this year is 5.26/5.61 but in his last two starts, his xERA was 7.23. Off nearly a month and with his ERA’s fluctuating like Jonah Hill’s physique, it’s impossible to trust this stiff right now and we’ll bet that the Red Sox score a bunch.
CINCINNATI -1½ +155 over Milwaukee
Tim Adleman doesn't have much of a pedigree as a former Indy leaguer but his numbers keep getting better. Even his current 4.30 ERA is more than respectable when you consider where he pitches half his games and that the average runs per game per team this year is 4.7. Adleman's underlying skills have been pretty attractive. He’s averaging 8.6 K’s/9 and the Brewers have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Adleman is generating whiffs (12% swing and miss) too. Adleman is coming on. Over his last five starts covering 29 innings, he’s whiffed 27 batters while posting a 3.41/4.20 ERA/xERA split.
Junior Guerra has a 3.11 ERA after seven starts but he’s by far the luckiest starter in the majors right now. Guerra’s skills are awful. Over his past 29 innings, he has walked 19 batters while strikeout out 18. His line drive rate over his last three starts is 32%, which is the highest on the board today. His xERA of 6.17 is more than three runs higher than his actual 3.11 ERA, which is the biggest discrepancy between xERA and ERA in the league among starters. Guerra is striking out fewer than six guys per nine innings while walking nearly five. He has surrendered seven jacks in 37 innings and has stranded 89 percent of baserunners. Batters are hitting .180 on balls in play against Guerra. To say that Guerra is as good as his ERA is akin to saying that a half-eaten, frozen burger pulled out of garbage is better than an In-N-Out burger. Winter is coming and the fade against Guerra remains in full force.
Oakland +147 over HOUSTON
Sean Manaea's producing whiffs with ease. His change-up (25% of pitches) and slider (20%) have been dominant, as each has produced a 20%+ swing and miss rate. Sean Manaea has one of the best BB/K splits in the majors with 28 walks and 81 K’s over 73 innings. On the aggregate, xERA and skills peg Manaea as one of the top 15 starters in the game. Given his electric swing-and-miss rate, groundball tilt of 47% and outstanding xERA of 3.13, Manaea's a huge growth stock worth getting behind against anyone at this price.
We know the Astros are this year’s Cubbies but Mike Fiers cannot be favored in this range against the home-run hitting A’s that are coming off a nice three-game sweep over the South Side on the weekend. Fiers has given up 18 home runs in 14 starts, but hasn’t surrendered a gopher ball since May 25. That’s lucky because his skills say there are no improvements. The more likely scenario is that Fiers is setting the stage for the A’s to come in and turn Minute Maid Park into a launching pad. Fiers’ stock is high for two reasons. First, he pitches for the greatest show on Earth and secondly, he has a 1.72 ERA over his last five starts. You’ll now pay through the teeth to back him here. Thing is, Fiers was removed from the rotation not long ago. Injuries forced the Astronauts to insert him back in. Fiers was a gamble when he was taking back big prices as a member of the Brewers for four years. He has 18 victories in 74 starts since he became an Astro and now he’s close to being a -170 favorite when his pattern is one win every four starts. No thanks. Overlay.
Kansas City +156 over DETROIT
Justin Verlander is 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA after 15 starts. From time to time, he shows flashes of his Cy Young-self down the stretch but that 1.45 WHIP is troublesome and so is the number of pitches he’s thrown. Over his last three starts, Verlander has thrown 110, 111 and 108 pitches respectively. Four starts ago, he threw 72 pitches in two innings and did not come out for the third. Prior to that, Verlander threw 116, 104, 109, 106, 108, 118 and 119 pitches respectively over seven successive pitches. He works deep into counts because he strikes out a lot of batters but he also walks far too many. Verlander has walked 43 batters in 88 innings. He averages more pitches per AB than any starter in the game.
Justin Verlander is walking hitters at a record pace, which has dragged both his xERA and WHIP. A spike in Ball%, which correlates well with control, only raises our concern level. The double-whammy is that Verlander isn't missing as many bats lately either. His fastball velocity is fine, but hitters aren't whiffing against it (8% swing and miss rate in 2017; 12% in 2016). His overall swing and miss rate is 10%, which is down from 12% in April and 11% in May. His groundball/fly-ball rate of 34%/44% is another troubling aspect to his game and one has to figure that fatigue is going to set in on that arm real soon if it hasn’t already. What follows Verlander is Detroit’s vomit inducing ‘pen, which makes them virtually unplayable in a nine-inning game.
Matt Strahm has appeared in 22 games this season with two of those being as a starter. Back in April, Strahm returned to the majors after four scoreless appearances (5 IP) in the minors, re-establishing his mechanics after they were out of whack (and he was whacked around) to the tune of a 47.25 ERA during the first week of the 2017 regular season. Remember, Strahm was electric in his first month at the MLB level last August with 11.7 K’s/9 to go along with a 1.23 ERA over 22 frames. He’s whiffed 33 batters in 30 innings this season but walks have hurt him in a bad way. Strahm seemed to have fixed his control issues prior to his call-up but his first-pitch strike rate calls that into question. Still, we’re not going to ignore the takeback here. Strahm has filthy stuff and his futility of RHB hints at his significant upside. Yeah, he’s a bigger risk than we’d like because of his walks but he’s no wilder than Verlander and K.C. is in MUCH better form too.
On Sunday, May 7, the Royals closed a disastrous 3-6 homestead by losing to the Indians by a score of 1-0. The loss, a familiar refrain, dropped the team to 10-20 on the year. It was, as far as 2017 gone so far, rock bottom for the Royals. They cleared out of The K and mercifully hit the road. From that point forward, the road has been kind to the Royals. Four games in Tampa meant three wins. And they’ve been rolling ever since. Yes, rolling. Since May 7, the Royals have a record of 27-17, a .614 winning percentage. That’s good for the second best mark in the AL over that time. Using those arbitrary end points, the Royals are 3½ games behind the Houston Astros, who are running away with the league’s best record. Record wise, they are the AL’s second best team and now they’re taking back a massive price against Detroit? This is a must bet value play.
Will Rogers
Texas vs. Cleveland
Pick: Over
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians suffered a three-game sweep at Minnesota over the weekend, getting outscored 13-2. Cleveland was an abysmal 1-for-23 with runners in scoring position in Minnesota and opened a four-game home series Monday night against the Rangers, looking to get its bats unleashed. However, the Indians quickly fell behind 9-2 to the Rangers before erupting for a season-high run total in a 15-9 victory. Cleveland would score 13 unanswered runs and bang out 19 hits, as eight of the nine starters registered multiple hits and the team finished 11-for-28 with runners in scoring position for the game. Texas has amassed 24 runs in its last three contests but loss dropped them back to .500 and 13 1/2 game behind the Astros in the AL West.
The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (1-1 & 9.35 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Mike Clevinger (3-3 & 3.86 ERA) for Cleveland. Ross missed the first two months of the 2017 season while recovering from off-season surgery but made a promising season debut by allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings to beat Seattle 10-4 on June 16. However, Ross took a step back last time out against Toronto, getting rocked for six first-inning runs and seven overall in just three innings. He is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts against the Indians (teams are 1-2). Clevinger has made eight starts for Cleveland this season (team is 4-4) but won for the first time in over a month last time out at Baltimore, limiting the Orioles to two runs on six hits in five innings in a 6-3 win. However, he has failed to pitch beyond five innings in each of his last three starts and has served up six HRs over his last five starts. Clevinger will face Texas for the first time in his career (was a rookie last season).
The pick: Yes, the teams exploded for 24 runs last night, so both teams figure to come back to earth some but I still like the over. Ross remains a huge question mark after his last start (see above) and Clevinger owns a 5.54 ERA in three June starts. What's more, he owns a 5.51 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home in 2017.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee AT Cincinnati
Pick: Milwaukee
This price has us very interested in the Brewers, who look to provide good value vs. the stumbling Reds. Though Tim Adleman has been one of Cincy's most reliable starting pitchers, the Reds also continue to be betrayed by their bullpen and are on course for their worst team ERA in over 100 years. Junior Guerra usually gives the Brew Crew a solid effort, with quality starts in his last three Outings.
Dwayne Bryant
Brewers at Reds
Play: Over 10.
In Milwaukee's Junior Guerra and Cincinnati's Tim Adleman, we get another matchup of two starters who both issue too many free passes. Guerra owns a 13.6 BB%, while Adleman brings a 10.2 BB% into tonight's contest. While Guerra's overall 3.11 ERA and Adleman's 3.96 home ERA appear solid, their 5.81 and 5.11 respective xFIPs indicate that both guys should be in for plenty of rough outings.
The Brewers have averaged a decent 4.6 runs in 18 road night games against righties, while the Reds have produced 5.4 runs in 15 home night games against righties.
Neither bullpen is anything special. The Reds pen has really struggled in recent days.
Plenty of trends supporting the Over, especially on the Reds side. My system agrees.
The Prez
Twins at Red Sox
Play: Over 10.5
Minnesota and Boston take the diamond at Fenway Park on Tuesday night with a first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Two lefties take the hill to start tonight's event with the Twins Héctor Santiago (4-6, 5.26 ERA) opposing Red Sox Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.07).
The Minnesota Twins have begun their expected regression. The surprising Twins have led the American League Central for most of the first two months of the 2017 campaign but a loss on Monday night dropped them out of first place.
Santiago has been out of the rotation for nearly three weeks with inflammation of his left shoulder. He is reinstated to the rotation after a rehab period and comes back after posting an 0-5 mark over his last seven appearances before being disabled.
The Twins lefty started the season with a 4-1 mark that included an ERA of less than 3.00. However, his 5.24 xFIP, screamed regression. While that took place before he was sent to the farm for rehab the last three weeks, that negative spiral likely hasn't ended. Santiago doesn't miss enough bats (6.31 K/9) and is fly ball heavy and pitches to a lineup that doesn't strike out. Being fly ball heavy at Fenway, especially from the left side of the rubber, has never been a positive for pitchers at Fenway. Santiago has allowed nearly 70 homeruns over the past two season including a 36 percent hard contact rate.
Boston southpaw Pomeranz didn't receive much offensive assistance in his last two turns, both quality efforts, versus Kansas City and Houston. Pomeranz hasn't been overwhelmingly successful in his home venue, Fenway, as his seven starts versus the Green Monster has seen him register a near 5.00 ERA. Surprisingly, Pomeranz has allowed left-handed bats a near .350 batting average against this season.
Pomeranz has pitched to his surface numbers, for the most part, and while he is due for continued positive regression (SIERA of 3.82) the scheduled home plate umpire (Jeff Kellogg who is 4-0 OVER the total in his last four Fenway events behind home plate & his low 2.2 K:BB ratio) conditions at Fenway (warm and humid with little to no wind) and pitcher(s) vs hitter(s) matchup calls for a high scoring contest.
Buster Sports
New York at Chicago
Play: Chicago +125
The Yankees and White Sox continue their series in Chicago tonight and we have a nice live underdog here with the White Sox. The starting pitchers are for the Yankees RH Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30 ERA) and he will face the White Sox LH Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69 ERA) Servino has pitched well this year for the Yankees but he has had trouble against the White Sox. In his last 2 starts against them he has allowed 11 runs in 10 2/3 innings. Severino is starting to get hit around of late as well, as he has given up 9 runs in his last 2 starts. As for Quintana 2017 start has been a tough one. He has of late started to show the form of the old Jose Quintana. In his last 3 starts he is sporting a 2.41 ERA with a WHIP of 1.018. We are getting plus 125 with the White Sox at the time of this writing and the fact that the Yankees are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record, it gives us some real nice value with the underdog.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+125) over NY Yankees
We have been cashing a number of big underdog winners here lately, including going against these same Yankees Saturday night with Texas and the Rangers cashed at +140! Their is just no way to back the Yankees right now, particularly at this inflated price. Bombers have lost 6 in a row and 10 of their last 12. White Sox have also been bad, we’ll take almost anybody at +125 against New York right now.
Bob Balfe
Braves +105
Sean Newcomb has not put in much work this year, but in his limited innings has been sharp. The Padres have the worst on base percentage in all of baseball so runs are always going to be limited. Chacin has been awful this year for the Padres and their bullpen has not been good enough to win close games.
Otto Sports
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Play: Tampa Bay -105
Different year, same result as the American League continues to dominate the National League in Interleague play. Heading into tonight's action, the AL is 83-59 +20 units of profit on the season. We can grab a near pick 'em price on Tampa Bay and starting pitcher Alex Cobb as the Rays open a series at Pittsburgh. Tampa has won five of its seven interleague games this season and has a very strong track record vs. right-handed pitching with a 31-22 mark and 117 wRC+ which ranks third in MLB. They'll face a very hittable arm in Trevor Williams who as a starter owns a 5.01 ERA over nine starts. Cobb is still trying to regain the form he had in 2014 when he flashed a 2.87 ERA over 27 starts. Arm difficulties and age have left him with slightly better than marginal stuff but his body of work is actually rock solid (4.05 ERA, 4.15 FIP). He's primed for success tonight against a mediocre lineup in a National League park. Money in this one should continue to trickle in on road side. At current pick 'em price, that's the preferred play.