DAVE COKIN
MARLINS VS. TIGERS
PLAY: MARLINS -101
Miami lefty Adam Conley with a pretty good edge on the mound against Detroit righty Mike Pelfrey is where this starts. Conley sweeps the categories I am focusing on in the head to head pitching matchups. This’s not to suggest Conley is anything more than a middle of the rotation type at this point, but that’s substantially better than the slot Pelfrey fits.
The Marlins are playing phenomenal defense. They’re now at 26 straight games without an error. That’s the most consecutive errorless games for any team since 1913, which is truly incredible. Life gets a whole lot easier for everyone involved when extra outs and scoring opportunities aren’t being handed out.
My one concern is whether Marcell Ozuna is ready to play tonight, as he’s obviously a very important piece of the Miami offense. But even without him, I think I have to go with the Miami side here. The Tigers are off a wrong-way sweep at home to the Indians, while the Marlins have to be feeling great after taking three of four from the Cubs. So between the pitching comparatives and the team form, I can justify Miami here in a virtual pick ’em game.
Sleepyj
Houston -135
This line not available at a bunch of books, but it should be right in and around -135 area....Astros have been playing much better during the month of June...Angels on the other hand have not...Angels are struggling to hit some of the easier pitchers right now...Feldman can give them trouble here and I expect him to be dialed in here tonight..Houston has tons of power and bats to hit up Lincecum...He pitched very good in his first start, but tailed off in his second..He faced a weaker lineup in his last start and it worries me facing Houston..I'm sure he would like to put together a solid outing, but I just don't see it happening...He doesn't have enough IMO to fool any of the Houston guys here...Line looks a tad off..I think this close -140/-145...I'll grab the better team and pitcher here.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
This game fits a solid under system for road teams like the Dodgers that are off a road dog win and are taking on a team off a 1 run home dog loss. These games have gone under 21 of 30 times and if our road team is favored the system drops to 7-1 under. Urias for LA Has stated to pitch well and has a 2.35 era in his last 3 starts. Anderson for Milwaukee has been far more effective at home. Look for this game to go under.
Marc Lawrence
Boston at Tampa Bay
Play: Boston -102
Edges - Red Sox: Rick Porcello 8-4 career team starts versus Tampa Bay, including 5-1 the last six. Rays: Chris Archer 4-8 career team starts in this series, and 2-5 home team starts this season, including 0-3 the last three. With Tampa Bay just 9-24 against winning foes this season, and the Red Sox 10-5 behind Porcello this year, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Art Aronson
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (8-1, 2.79 ERA) who comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Reds on Wednesday, allowing just one run off five scattered hits over six innings in the 6-4 win. Hamels’ peripherals are ugly though and it’s now just a matter of time before the baseball gods come back to strike him down as his 1.40 HR/9 and 3.44 BB/9 are both career worsts, while his 4.57 FIP is horrible. Hamels will be opposed by Yanks veteran CC Sabathia, who like his counterpart today, has opened the season strong, but who has also shown some “cracks in the armor.” Sabathia (5-4, 2.20 ERA) is approaching 36 years old and while he’s been superb to this point, like Hamels there’s plenty of tell tale signs that the southpaw is about to take a step back, as his FIP is a full point higher than his ERA and his xFIP (which is considred by most experts as being the best predictor for future ERA) is more than two runs higher. Also note that he’s a rather pedestrian 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. We’re going to recommend a play on the OVER in this one.
Darryl Tucholski
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Rangers -116
The Rangers have won six straight on the road, and Sabathia has begun to derail, the pitch count has eclipsed 100 in 3 of the last four for oft-injured C.C. Before that, he didnt top 100 in 6 games. He's being overworked, slam the Rangers.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8
The Pittsburgh offense is 13th in baseball in runs scored, third in on-base percentage, and they pick up the DH for this interleague series. Jonathon Niese goes for the Pirates with a 4.93 ERA as opponents hit .284 off him. Niese (6-5) pitched six innings, allowing five runs, seven hits and two walks while striking out four in Thursday's loss to the Giants. Niese has imploded over his last three starts, giving up 17 earned runs on 24 hits -- including six homers. His road ERA is 5.03 where batters hit .303 off him. Pittsburgh is 10-2 over the total in Interleague games, plus the over is 18-8 in Pirates last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Seattle has a Top 7 offense and is 43-21-3 over the total against a team with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma (4.45 ERA) was blasted for five runs on 11 hits (including three homers) and three walks in Wednesday's loss to the Tigers. He's given up a stunning 10 homers in his last five starts.
Brad Diamond
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 8
Eickhoff (5-9, 3.36) versus Greinke (10-3, 3.61) out in Arizona this evening. The opening and current overnight line pending sources 8-8-1/2. When the line is in the 8’s the D-backs have shot OVER this season 14-10. Philadelphia within the same core 15-14 OVER. Arizona comes into Tuesday (before Monday action) going OVER 4 straight, while the Phillies come in 5-1 OVER L6. Arizona has been a winning ticket OVER this season at home…20-16 and 7-1 OVER in home games. Remember too, before Monday night Arizona was hitting .364 over the last four games scoring 30 runs. Granted Grienke is 7-1 with a 2.47 ERA against Philly, but the situational spot has simply too many variables for a low scoring game. Inside Philadelphia we find a perfect 5-0 OVER record versus losing teams and 6-0 OVER against RHP. On the road Eickhoff is 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA. And by the way, Grienke has a 5.06 ERA at home.
Bob Harvey
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
It’s the I-70 showdown as the St. Louis Cardinals take on the World Champion Kansas City Royals in their interleague series. First pitch is set for 8:15 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium where KC and the volatile Yordano Ventura are -114 ML favorites over the Cards and Michael Wacha. The total is 8.5.
The Cardinals (39-35, 40-34 RL) suffered their third loss in their last four road games but still boasts a stellar 24-15 on the road. The Royals (39-35, 41-33 RL) improved their major league-best home record to 27-10 with a 6-2 victory in Monday’s series opener.
Wacha (3-7, 4.41 ERA) snapped a 10-start winless streak his last time out, beating the Cubs on the road for his first win since April 23. He allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings for his third straight quality start and his fourth in five outings. Wacha is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts against the Royals and allowed just one unearned run to beat them last season.
Ventura (6-4, 4.54 ERA) looks to remain unbeaten at home, where he is 4-0 with a 3.75 ERA in six starts this season. He’s 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals.
Royals’ rookie Whit Merrifield also aims to continue his stellar performance at Kauffman Stadium, where he has hit safely in all 18 career games – the third-longest home hitting streak to begin a career since 1913.
The two teams are 8-1-4 to the UNDER in their last 12 meetings while KC is 6-2 to the low side in its last eight interleague games.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. Arizona
Pick: Under
The Philadelphia Phillies blanked Arizona 8-0 in Game 1 of this series at Chase Field Monday, but the Diamondbacks are a heavy favorite to take Game 2 with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. A lot of money will be on home favorite here, but I think the sharper bet is on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Greinke (10-3, 3.61 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over 5.2 innings in a 7-6 win at Colorado in his last start. He didn't get credit for the decision in that game, but had won seven straight previously. During that span he went eight innings, striking out six in a 4-1 win over the Phillies. Jerad Eikoff will start for the visitors tonight, and he's won three of his last four starts.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Greinke owns the Phillies, holding them to a combined .165 batting average over 97 previous at bats. The Philly lineup has struck out 31 times while managing just 16 hits during that span.
3. X-Factor - The Under is 6-1 in Eickhoff's last seven starts overall.
Larry Ness
Astros at Angels
Pick: Astros
Houston had its 11-game home run streak halted Monday but the Astros won 4-2 at the LA Angels. The Astros resume their six-game road trip tonight with a 16-8 record in June against the Angels, who in stark contrast are just 8-17 this month. "Tim Lincecum 2.0" will make his third start for the Angels on Tuesday, this time facing the Houston Astros after twice taking on the Oakland A's. Lincecum held the A's to one run and four hits in six innings of a 6-1 win in his first start of 2016 but just five days later, the A's knocked him out of the game after just three innings, with Lincecum giving up four runs on seven hits while making 83 pitches. "My shoulders were going horizontally," Lincecum told reporters after his June 23 loss to Oakland. "Stuff was flattening out. Pitching on both sides of the plate and missing on either side. I didn't do a good job of hitting my spots. They were just getting the balls in play and hitting balls to where we weren't," he said. "You have to tip your cap to them. They made an adjustment. I just didn't make the adjustment back."
The really good news here for LA is that Lincecum has had success against the Astros in his career, going 5-0 with a 0.99 ERA in five career starts. However, that was the "other" Lincecum, the one who won two Cy Young awards pitching for the Giants. Getting the ball for the Astros will be Scott Feldman (4-3, 3.07 ERA), who is making a spot start in place of Lance McCullers. Feldman is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA in 16 relief appearances after going 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in four starts to open the season(Houston is 0-4). "We are erring on the side of caution with the All-Star break being 10 or 12 days away and (with) the availability of Scott Feldman to come in and spot start, it's a very simple decision for us to push (McCullers) back," Hinch told reporters. "After his last start (June 22 vs. the Angels) Lance came down with a small start of a blister on the tip of his (index) finger," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. "He didn't realize it until he started throwing the next day and it was tender at the very tip of his finger so he stopped his throwing program. We are erring on the side of caution."
Considering Lincecum’s career record vs the Astros and the fact that Feldman hasn’t started a game since April 24, taking the Angels would be a reasonable call. However, the Angels are slumping while the Astros have begun to play like the wild card team they were last season (86 wins). More importantly, I have ZERO faith that Lincecum can recapture his past ‘magic’ with his surgically repaired left hip. I’m taking the visitor.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -138
Pittsburgh already was a tired team after not having a day off since June 13 and now the Pirates have to travel to the West Coast after losing 5-4 at home to the Dodgers on Monday afternoon. The Pirates have lost 15 of their last 20 games, including their last five road contests. Jonathon Niese is 6-5 with a 4.93 ERA and has allowed 17 runs and 24 hits his last three starts in just 16 2/3 innings and the Pirates lost all three. Hisashi Iwakuma had a rough outing at Detroit but previously had been giving the Mariners six or seven innings per appearance. The right-hander was 5-1 in the six games prior to his last start. Seattle has won eight of its last 10 interleague games and the Pirates are 3-12 against right-handed starters. I'm playing the Mariners on Tuesday.
Scott Rickenbach
Red Sox at Rays
Pick: Under 8
Yesterday's game was surprisingly high-scoring as the teams combined for 20 runs. The Red Sox had previously been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games while the Rays had previously been held to an average of just 2.6 runs per game during their 11 game losing streak that preceded yesterday's win. I certainly don't expect one game to "change everything" for the recent trending of these two lineups. Also, Boston's Rick Porcello is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has a 2.62 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his home starts this season. The under is 6-1 in Archer's home starts this season. Also, as a home dog of +100 to +125, the Rays have gone 10-1 to the under this season! When the Red Sox are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more this season, the under has gone 4-1, 80%!
Stephen Nover
Astros at Angels
Play: Over 8.5
Two below average starters backed by mediocre bullpens puts me on the over here. Scott Feldman, demoted earlier to the bullpen, gets to make a spot start here for Houston in place of Lance McCullers. Don't expect much from Feldman, who last started a game on April 24. He is 0-2 with a 4.58 as a starter this season. If Lincecum isn't washed up, he's close to it. The over has cashed in 17 of the Angels' last 22 home games. The weather forecast is for winds blowing out to right at 10-13 mph.
MIKE LUNDIN
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Rangers -103
The Texas Rangers showed great fighting spirit last night when they returned from a near four hour rain delay to score four runs at the top of the ninth to defeat the New York Yankees 9-6.
Cole Hamels (8-1, 2.79 ERA) takes the ball for Texas Tuesday evening. The left-hander has recorded five consecutive quality starts and has a 0.87 ERA in winning each of his last three starts. Hamels is searching for his first career win over New York, and the way he's been dealing lately tonight could very well be the night.
CC Sabathia (5-4, 2.71) takes the ball for the Yankees. He had been hot prior to allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits through 4 1/3 innings against the Rockies on Wednesday. Sabathia rolled his right ankle twice in that start, and while he made it through his bullpen session Saturday there is a slight question mark regarding his health status.
Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 road games and 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win. They're 17-3 in Hamels' last 20 starts following a quality start in his last appearance and 10-3 in Hamels' last 13 road starts. Texas is red hot and I don't see the Yankees being able to slow them down tonight.