CHASE DIAMOND
New York at Washington
Play: Washington -110
Big National League game between the 40-35 Mets and the 45-32 Nationals. Lucas Giolito is the Nats top pitching prospect and at 21 years old this is his first start in the big leagues. I expect the Nationals to be really motivated to get the kid the win today this guy has electric stuff with a knee buckling curve ball. Matt Harvey has struggled all season and really I think we are getting a great deal here at a virtual pick.
RAY MONOHAN
Toronto Blue Jays -129
The Blue Jays and Rockies continue their interleague series here on Tuesday and Toronto at the given price is a nice play to work with.
The Blue Jays held a 4-0 lead in the series opener before everything broke loose and the Rockies took off with back to back crooked numbers.
JA Happ toes the rubber for Toronto, as he puts his impressive 9-3 record on the line. Happ as pitched extremely well lately, winning 3 straight starts. He has also dominated the Rockies with a 3-0 career record and 2.36 ERA while holding them just a .200 batting average.
Some trends to consider. Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Colorado's Eddie Butler has really struggled this season. Given that, along with Happ here, this is a nice price on Toronto.
JACK JONES
St. Louis Cardinals +109
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing solid value as small road underdogs to the Kansas City Royals tonight. I look for them to bounce back after losing Game 1 of this series due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.
Michael Wacha got off to a slow start this season, but he has really turned it around of late. Wacha is 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts. He has also had plenty of success against the Royals, going 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Yordano Ventura returns from his suspension tonight. He has struggled all year, going 6-4 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts. Ventura is also 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 6-0 in Wacha's last six starts when working on 5 days of rest. The Royals are 0-6 in Ventura's last six interleague starts.
BRANDON LEE
Astros -110
After a miserable start to the season that saw them go just 7-17 in the month of April, Houston has caught fire and are playing as well as any team in the league at the moment. With last night's come from behind 4-2 win over the Angels, the Astros are now 8-1 in their last 9. While Houston is one of the league's hottest teams, LA is one of the coldest. The Angels have lost 7 of their last 8. LA will turn to Tim Lincecum for his third start since joining the rotation. After a strong showing against the A's in his first outing, he lasted just 3 innings before getting pulled against the same Oakland team in his next start. He's give up 11 hits and 4 walks with just 4 strikeouts in 9 innings of work. Houston will send out Scott Feldman, who will be making his first start since April, as he was demoted to the bullpen after a awful start to the season. He appears to have figured something out as a reliever, as he has a 1.85 ERA in 16 relief appearances. He's more than capable of shutting down this Angels' offense.
JOHN RYAN
Blue Jays vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +125
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 134-75 over the last 5 seasons good for 64% winners and made 53 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (COLORADO) - after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is 23-15 (+15.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 10-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season; 36-11 (+22.3 Units) against the money line in home games after 5 or more consecutive overs since 1997; 15-9 (+7.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Toronto is 0-7 (-9.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season; 5-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive road games this season; 18-29 (-17.9 Units) against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 3 seasons. Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Blue Jays are 3-13 in Happs last 16 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. Blue Jays are 1-4 in Happs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
Fundamental Discussion Points Gonzalez belted a three-run homer in Colorado's 9-5 triumph on Monday and is 23-for-52 with four blasts, 16 RBIs and 12 runs scored in his last 12 contests. He has throttled Toronto to the tune 16 hits in 43 at-bats over 11 career games. While the Rockies have scored 65 runs en route to winning five of their last eight contests, the Blue Jays have cooled off by losing six of their last eight. Happ, the 33-year-old starter, saw his pitch count elevate last outing after issuing four walks, giving him 30 on the season - just two shy of his total last year. Colorado 3B Nolan Arenado has registered eight RBIs and seven runs scored during his 10-game hitting streak. Blue Jays LF Michael Saunders is 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in his last two contests and just 3-for-28 in his last seven. The Rockies are trending up right now as the Blue Jays are sliding.
JIMMY BOYD
Yankees/Rangers Under 8½
These two teams exploded for 15 runs on 25 hits in the Rangers 9-6 win in yesterday's series opener. I believe we are seeing an inflated total tonight because of it. Runs will be hard to come by with the starting pitching matchup we have in this one.
Yankees send out C.C. Sabathia who has a 2.71 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 12 starts. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs once all season and that includes a earlier start at Texas, where he held the Rangers to just 3 runs in 6 innings. Texas will counter with Cole Hamels, who is 8-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 15 starts. He's 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA in 7 road starts and has a 0.87 ERA in his last 3 outings.
UNDER is 37-19 in Hamels last 56 road starts when he's working on 5 or 6 days of rest, 15-5-1 in Sabathia's last 21 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 starts against teams who strikeout 7 or more times per game.
DAVE PRICE
Los Angeles Dodgers -132
Rookie phenom Julio Urias is starting to pitch up to his potential. He sports a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP with 21 K's over 15 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts for the Dodgers. He'll be opposed by Chase Anderson, who is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA in 14 starts this year for Milwaukee. Anderson has given up 11 earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts coming in. Urias pitched 5 shutout innings against Milwaukee on June 17 in his only lifetime start against them. Anderson is 1-2 with a 5.05 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 Tuesday games. The Brewers are 3-9 in Anderson's last 12 starts.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Atlanta
Pick: Cleveland
In terms of "safe bets" on today's card, it probably doesn't get any more risk averse than the Indians, who have won their last 10 games. That's not just the longest active win streak in MLB right now; it's the longest streak we've seen from any team all season. Given who the competition is here (Atlanta), I offer a small recommendation on the Tribe tonight.
If there's an opposite end of the spectrum from Cleveland, Atlanta is at it right now. OK, to be fair, the Braves have won 8 of their last 12 games. But after losing here last night, 8-3, they're 26-50 overall w/ a -102 run differential (3rd worst) and an unspeakably bad 11-30 at Turner Field. They are also 0-4 as a home underdog of +150 to +175 this season. Last night, I saw little to suggest the home team will be competitive in this series.
We've also got a total pitching mismatch on our hands for Tuesday. Corey Kluber went the distance his last time out for Cleveland, tossing a three-hit shutout against Tampa Bay. While he's had a few poor outings this year, Kluber is certainly deserving of better than a 7-7 team start record. On the road, there is a big discrepancy between his ERA (4.02) and WHIP (0.932), which tells me better results will be on the horizon. Meanwhile, Atlanta's Matt Wisler has a 5.19 ERA and 1.615 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by a stunning 68-21 margin during the course of the current win streak with eight of the victories coming by three runs or greater.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Kansas City
Pick: Over 8.5
Kansas City is 12-4-2 OVER the total in its last 18 home games and 11-5-1 OVER after a win. Yordano Ventura has a 4.54 ERA overall this season and has allowed eight runs and 16 hits in 16 innings against St. Louis the last three years. Michael Wacha has pitched better in recent starts, but he still owns a 3-7 record and 4.41 ERA and is also 1-5 with a 5.21 ERA in night games. The Cardinals are second in the major leagues, scoring 298 runs against right-handers and the Royals have the third-highest home batting average at .293. Dating to last season, Wacha is 20-6 OVER on the road. Play the Cardinals and Royals to soar OVER the total.
Ian Cameron
Texas at New York
Play: Texas -110
A lack of betting market respect has been commonplace with the Texas Rangers with +30 units in the bank despite being 33 games over .500. Cole Hamels has been exceptional over his last three starts allowing just two runs in 20.2 innings of work with Texas winning all three of those games. On the season, lefties have hit only .208 off of Hamels with a miniscule OPS of .630. New York has had a tough time offensively particularly against lefties with the 27th ranked slugging percentage (.386). On the flip side, C.C. Sabathia’s magical ride of a season came to a bit of a halt in this last outing as Colorado got him for 6 runs on 7 hits in 4.1 innings and he left that game with an ankle injury. The Yankees said he is good to go for this start but I’m left to wonder if maybe that rough outing is the beginning of a tailspin for an aging arm that is north of 3,000 innings and currently sporting the best numbers we’ve seen since 2011. Also note that Texas has mashed lefties this season with the fourth-best OPS in the league. At a near pick ‘em price, Texas deserves our support.
GoodFella
Astros TT Over 4.5
These Astros are really swinging the bats right now. I fully expect them to get to Lincecum eventually this evening. Then we get in to that poor Angels bullpen, who performed poor again last night. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting our full 9 innings of at-bats. I feel confident that these Astros will plate at least 5 runs before this game concludes and I am on the Astros Team Total OVER 4.5 on Tuesday evening.
Vegas Butcher
Texas Rangers -120 1st 5
Sabathia has truly only had 1 good month this year, May where he sported a 3.7 xFIP. In April and June his xFIP has been over 5, indicating a pitcher that is really struggling. One key factor for Sabathia is his “cutter”, a pitch he relies on to get hitters out as his fastball velocity has declined. Well, the best offensive team against the pitch is Texas this season, by a long shot. I’ll back the Rangers for the first-5 as NY has a strong advantage with their BP.
Cleveland Indians -1.5 -125
Over the year, Kluber has become my #7 ranked starter, as he’s been moving up the ranks with each start. On the other side, Wisler is ranked #128 and one of the worst pitchers over the last 30-days with an e-ERA (expected ERA) of 5.8. Huge discrepancies offensively between the two teams as well (#4 for CLE and #30 for ATL), plus you get the Indians to hit for the full 27 outs, and I love their chances of winning this one by 2+.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -140
Similar concept here as well. Much better pitcher, two offenses that are drastically different against left-handed pitching, and an overall mismatch between the two. I have Cubs winning this one by 3.3 runs so I’ll back them here on the RL.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on the Chicago Cubs Run Line, over the Cincinnati Reds, as the National League Central rivals do battle in the Queen City.
And that's because Lester is going outclass Lamb, by default.
The Cubs' left-handed veteran is in after serving up two home runs in his last start against the Marlins, the first time he's done that this season. He will be pissed off in looking for revenge in this one. And since he's 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Reds this year, including on April 22 in which he gave up one run over 7 innings, he will have plenty of confidence.
Meanwhile, Lamb can't seem to get past the first batter in each inning. Get this for a stat, the leadoff hitter of the inning is hitting .404 (19-for-47) against Lamb this season, with a .491 on-base percentage. Last Thursday versus the Padres, the leadoff batter reached five of six innings. Against this powerful lineup, he's in big trouble.
Play the Cubs BIG!
1* CUBS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 74-67 run with free picks: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee (8.5-over, -110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers continue their National League series in Milwaukee, at Miller Park. The Brewers are battling to get out of fourth place in the National League Central, just two games back of Pittsburgh. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are in second place in the N.L. West, seven back of the Giants. Both teams will have their offense on point.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The pitchers are my key here, as I think Julio Urias and Chase Anderson are going to tank hard in this one. First of all, why is Urias still in the bigs? His reassignment should have taken place. The left-hander is on a short leash with a bullpen that figures to be worked hard tonight. Anderson, meanwhile, allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings in his last start.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Urias and Anderson. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. They are both going to be hit hard, and could see their exit take place by the fifth inning.
5* Dodgers/Brewers Over
Jeff Benton
You Tuesday freebie is the Diamondbacks on the Run Line over the Phillies.
Last night Philly blanked the Snakes, 8-0, but tonight it will be Zack Greinke's turn to do the blanking.
Greinke beat Philadelphia two starts ago in Philly, as he outdueled his counterpart Jerad Eickhoff in a 3-1 D-Backs win. That win was one of the four Arizona earned in the four game series, as they outscored the Phillies, 22-5.
Eickhoff is one of Philly's better young arms, but Greinke is 7-0 his last 8 starts with an ERA just over 2, so expect him to be stingy to the Phils once again.
Philadelphia just doesn't win that often any longer, as the reality of them being a bad team has finally sunk in.
Arizona to stretch things tonight after getting skunked last night.
Run Line play on the Diamondbacks.
1* ARIZONA -1.5