Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia Phillies against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and in this shocker I want you listing both scheduled starters: Jerad Eickhoff and Zack Greinke.
This may look and sound strange, but yes I like Eickhoff over Greinke in what will be a revenge game for Philadelphia's right-hander. Eickhoff has been very effective for the Phils over his last seven starts, with a decision in each, going 4-3 with a 2.23 ERA. Now, these two met not too long ago, and it was actually a pretty close game. So it's not as if Eickhoff won't have confidence on the hill.
Against the Snakes back on June 18, Eickhoff lasted 5-2/3 innings, scattering nine hits and allowing three earned runs. He was stung by two home runs, but he also struck out six and walked just one. Tonight he'll be at his best.
He's going to have to be, as Greinke is 6-0 in his last seven starts with a 1.95 ERA. He's also coming off a rather rough start - for his standard - in allowing three earned runs in 5-2/3 frames in Denver. At some point this unbeaten run is going to come to an end.
I'll take a shot with the Phillies here.
3* PHILLIES
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is the Under in the Bronx as a pair of southpaws will stand on the mound.
Texas starter Cole Hamels is on a 3-0 run his last 3 starts with a 0.87 ERA. Hamels has also won his last 8 road starts and has posted a 2.15 ERA along the way in winning those 8!
Yankees hurler CC Sabathia is coming off his first poor outing in a long time, but the big lefty still stands holds a 2.71 season ERA, and the Under is 8-3-1 when he starts for New York this season.
Last night the teams plated a combined 15 runs, but tonight look for that total to be much less.
Play is on the Under in Texas-New York for Tuesday y'all.
4* TEXAS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
JEFF ALEXANDER
Nationals -105
Washington will be sending out Lucas Giolito for his major league debut and I like the value we are getting here with the Nationals as a small home favorite. Giolito isn't your typical minor leaguer making his first start. He's the No. 1 ranked pitching prospect in baseball. I look for him to dazzle here at home against a bad Mets offense. I also look for Washington's offense to provide some decent run support in this one. The Nationals exploded for 11 runs on 17 hits yesterday and have had their way this season against Mets starter Matt Harvey, scoring 14 runs on 16 hits in his two starts against them (only 7 2/3 innings). It's also worth noting that NY is just 1-7 in Harvey's 8 starts against division opponents this season.
STEVE JANUS
Orioles -1½ +116
Play Against - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (SAN DIEGO) - with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts. This system is 43-23 (65%) against the run line since 1997.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas -106 over N.Y. YANKEES
We can discuss C.C. Sabathia at length again but it would just be redundant. If you want to read our position on Sabathia, you can read our last writeup on him here, which occurred on the day that the Rockies knocked him out in the fifth inning in New York. If you don’t read it, we will reiterate. Sabathia’s recent string of six outstanding efforts was all a mirage. He’s still the same below replacement level starter that he’s been for the past two years and we are not going to stop attacking him until the prices reflect just how bad he is.
With filthy stuff and a worm-killing sinker (72% grounders%) there's absolutely no reason for Cole Hamels to intentionally nibble at the plate. His monthly ball% is trending in the right direction (April-39.7%, May-38.8%, June-36.4%) and it's reasonable to expect this trend to continue, given his history of good control. We can still count on Hamels for a sub-3.50 ERA, better than a strikeout per inning pitched, and at least a league average WHIP, going forward. Aside from that, he’s an absolute stud. Hamels does not get the same credit as guys like Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner or David Price but he is their equal and then some. Had any one of those aforementioned three pitchers be going here against CC. Sabathia, they would all be at least a -130 favourite and probably higher than that. Hamels is just -106 (at the time of this writing) and that’s not right at all. He’s one of the best pitchers in the AL (2.79 ERA, 95 K’s in 97 IP, 52% roundball rate) but he’s priced like Mike Pelfrey here. Do you see the lunacy in that? We do.
Pittsburgh +173 over SEATTLE
Jonathan Niese comes in with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP after 15 starts. Niese is not going to dominate. He has about a 50% chance of getting past the fifth inning. His only job is eat up innings and give the Pirates a chance to win and that’s what he usually does. Niese’s groundball rate of 55% is elite and keeps him in games and his xERA of 4.30 also keeps him in games. We are quite aware that Niese is capable of getting knocked out in the first four innings but that is of no concern to us whatsoever. If the Mariners rough him up and knock him out early, so be it. What we know for sure is that Hisashi Iwakuma cannot be priced in this range ever again.
Iwakuma has seen his skills collapse in almost every area this season and the results have followed suit. His groundball rate has gone from 50% last season to 40% this season. His walks are up and his K-rate has slipped. The result has been a 5.88 xERA over his past five starts and just two dominant efforts in 15 starts. He owns a 5.17 ERA at home in six starts this season, which is where he will face the Pirates today. Iwakuma’s velocity is down to 87 MPH. His swing and miss rate was 4% in his last start. We mentioned before that he was traded to the Dodgers in the off-season but L.A. didn’t like what they saw in his physical and shipped him right back to Seattle. Iwakuma is now pitching on borrowed time. He’s running on fumes and has been pitching with heavy traffic on the bases for a few games now.
Probably the best thing for these struggling Pirates is to get on the road far away from home in a city they rarely play in. The Pirates can hit the reset button here and could not have handpicked a more ripe to get beat starter to do that against. HUGE overlay.
COLORADO +124 over Toronto
The Blue Jays have dropped two in a row and six of their last eight but for the second day in a row they're favoured in Colorado. Yesterday, it was Marco Estrada opening as a -126 favourite before the market hammered the game down to a pick-em. Recently, the Yanks went into Colorado as the favourite both games and lost them both. Today, it’s J.A. Happ that is overpriced, which is our cue to jump in.
Happ has some pretty nice numbers this year. In 15 starts. he’s 9-3 with a 3.42 ERA. However, he has just 66 strikeouts in 95 frames to go along with 30 walks. Happ has other issues too. His weak 53% first-pitch strike rate means he’s often behind in the count. In his last start, Happ, walked four batters in five innings and had a WHIP of 2.00, His 80% strand rate has kept his actual ERA in check so far but his xERA of 4.45 says some of those stranded runners are going to cross the plate in bunches soon enough. Once again, we have a case of a pitcher’s surface stats (W/L record and ERA) dictating the line or at least having heavy influence on the line. We’ll try and take advantage.
Eddie Butler’s 6.71 ERA and 2-4 record after 11 appearances (eight starts) also has influence on this number. On paper, dude looks awful so let’s compare his numbers to Happ’s. Both Happ and Butler are averaging the exact same number of K’s/9 (6.1). Butler averages 2.1 walks per nine innings while Happ averages 2.9. They both have the exact same groundball rate at 45%. They both average 92.7 MPH on the gun. They both have four pitches but Happ throws his fastball more often (57%) than Butler does (45%). Take away the surface stats and you may not find two pitchers so close in comparison to one another as Happ and Butler in almost everything they do. The difference is that Happ doesn’t pitch half his games at Coors and that Butler’s luck driven strand rate of 60% is 20 points lower than Happ’s 80% strand rate.
There are other differences in the game as well and here they are: 9, 9, 11, 9, 6, 8, 8. Those are the number of runs the Rockies have scored in each of their past seven games. We’re not predicting a Colorado win here. We’re playing value. We’re playing the team in better form, with a superior bullpen and that is putting up crooked numbers daily. The starting pitching matchup is dead even.
Oakland +128 over SAN FRAN
Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys. Almost every team will go through winning and losing streaks and every team will very likely end up winning 60 games and losing 60 games. There are few exceptions to that every year. So when a team like San Fran is whacking the ball and leading the majors in hitting over a 20-game stretch, regression is inevitable. The Giants are coming back down to earth and the A’s just happen to be the competition.
Oakland came in here last night and took the opener 8-3. That was against Jeff Samardzija and they do not take a step up in class here when facing Albert Suarez. Suarez is set to make his fifth start of the season and is coming off his first dominant start but he cannot be trusted for a repeat. Suarez’s 4.29/4.53 ERA/xERA split as a starter is significantly higher than his 2.87 ERA/3.54 xERA split as a reliever. Suarez is back in the rotation only because Matt Cain is back on the DL. Suarez is just a very average 26-year-old rookie that has spent a lot of time in the minors. Being an average pitcher, Suarez does not warrant being this high a price.
Kendall Graveman has one of the best groundball rates in MLB. Graveman’s velocity is also up across the board, which has contributed to a higher whiff rate and higher strikeout rate. Graveman’s swing and miss % has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. He’s a pitcher we are watching closely because he’s shown flashes in a handful of his starts. Graveman works with a bunch of average pitches, but advanced pitchability, plus control, maturity, and makeup all push the profile up, giving him the potential to eat up good innings in a forgiving home ballpark and in a park like the one he’ll pitch in here.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Brewers
Decent price on Milwaukee, which gets another look at Dodger rookie Julio Urias, who pitched five shutout innings vs. the Brewers on June 17 at Chavez Ravine. But Urias has been erratic and his ERA sits at 4.33, hardly the Fernando Valenzuela-type stuff the Blue was expecting. A bit risky trusting Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson, routed by the Dodgers in that recent series in LA, but in his last three home starts he's allowed 3 runs and 10 hits in 20 1/3 IP (1.33 ERA those games at Miller Park).
Bob Balfe
Red Sox/Rays Over 7.5
I am shocked at this low total. I would say both pitchers are about average and Vegas is making it out like two Cy Young pitchers are on the mound. Both teams have been awful at defense and pitching the last few games and I just don’t see how the winner of this game alone won’t put up 8 themselves.
Harry Bondi
Colorado & Toronto OVER +12.5
Colorado is on an OVER tear posting overs in each of their last seven games. They are averaging 8.8 runs per game over that stretch. Toronto is one of the best hitting teams in baseball and should feast on Rockies starter Eddie Butler who has a 6.71 ERA and who has been an over machine going over in 10 of his last 13 games at Coors Field. It's OVER!