Free Picks for Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PHILLIES AT BRAVES
PLAY: UNDER 8.5
Perhaps a rare pitching duel at this new launching pad tonight as Aaron Nola takes on Jaime Garcia. These are each extreme ground ball pitchers, so they’re far superior fits for this stadium than those who surrender lots of fly balls.
Nola has been shaky for the Phillies, but I think he should be able to do okay against this lineup. Garcia has gotten into a very nice groove recently, and he has a longterm success record when he’s healthy.
The Phillies are also absolutely terrible against lefties on the road, with a .179 BA for the season, and averaging less than three runs per nine innings. The oddsmakers have adjusted the number downward for this matchup and I think with good reason. I’ll go Under Phillies-Braves.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Braves -1½
I am going for the big payback here as you can see. I know I could have Atlanta at roughly a pick'em price on the money line but by laying the +1.5 runs we get nearly 2 to 1 odds and we're going against the worst team in baseball. That's hard to not like especially when you consider that 12 of the last 13 Phillies losses have come by 3 runs or more! With 92% odds in our favor that a Phils loss comes by 3 runs or more, the main question is simply will Philadelphia lose Tuesday night and that appears to be an emphatic YES based on this pitching match-up. The Phillies will go from facing the Braves worst starter, Bartolo Colon, last night to now facing their hottest starter, Jaime Garcia, tonight. Garcia has a 0.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. As for the Phils, they'll have Aaron Nola on the mound and he is 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Nola has given up 15 hits in his last 12 innings versus the Braves while Garcia has given up only 7 hits in his last 13 innings versus the Phillies. By the way, 20 of the Braves 24 wins have come by 2 runs or more this season. I love the nearly 2 to 1 odds here when you consider the pitching match-up and the propensity that both teams have for being involved in lopsided games.
Mike Lundin
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 8½
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres for the opener of a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday. Over is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Arizona and I think we'll see another high-scoring encounter with Dinelson Lamet and Robbie Ray on the mound.
Arizona's right-hander Robbi Ray (5-3, 3.00) has tossed 23 2/3 scoreless innings through his last three starts, but all on the road. He's 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts at Chase Field this season and over is 6-1 in Ray's last seven home starts.
San Diego's Dinelson Lamet (2-0, 2.70 ERA) will make his third career start in the MLB. He's been solid in his first two, allowing a total of three runs on eight hits in 10 innings to beat the Mets and the Cubs, but facing Arizona at Chase Field is a totally different story as the D'Backs are averaging 6.03 runs per game at home this season.
Cappers Club
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St. Louis -111
The Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals continue their series on Tuesday night, and the away team as a lot of value in this one.
Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals and he has been dominant as of late. In his last two starts he has gone 13 innings. In those innings he has only given up seven hits and zero runs.
He looks to be the Wainwright of old and he should have no problems slowing down the bats of the Reds.
On the mound for the Reds is Tim Adleman who has a very high ERA of 4.91 at home so far this season.
Some trends to note. Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Cardinals are 4-1 in Wainwrights last 5 Tuesday starts.
I expect the Cardinals to score enough runs to win.
Marc Lawrence
Toronto at Oakland
Play: Toronto -120
Edges - Blue Jays: Estrada 3.82 ERA and 1.17 WHIP away this season, and 6-1 away last seven team starts during June, and 2-0 versus A.L. West this season. With Estrada in strong KW form with 29 Ks and 4 BBs his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Dustin Hawkins
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Indians -112
Cleveland is 24-8 against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. Colorado coach Bud Black is 19-44 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better in all games he has managed since 1997.
Dennis Macklin
Giants vs. Brewers
Play:Brewers -132
The Giants have lost four of five and go to war tonight with Matt Cain who has never been a mystery to Milwaukee ... 3-8 with a 5.01 ERA in 13 lifetime starts. Chase Anderson has turned the corner and pitching very well (4-1, 3.30) this year. This year Cain ERA on the road 8.28 while Anderson rocks a 2.12 ERA this year at Miller Park.
Tony Karpinski
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Braves -101
Good to see Atlanta having some spirit and it appears that Atlanta is looking like they are trying to get into a groove.
They have a team that gets on base with great eyes, with 4 guys in the .360+ number range - after around 2 months into the current season. Of course the Braves are going to keep sending them to the plate.
Atlanta just don't give up hits to poor batters. Philly has some really subpar hitting players, and should be seriously thinking to start sending numerous back to the minors. Philadelphia comes into this game hitting a miserable .240 - and what kind of a lineup has so many guys hitting around .230 or less in their steady lineups?
Philadelphia.
Mike Anthony
San Francisco vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -130
I like Milwaukee in the NL Central as Milwaukee are always pushing things forward for their team. The Central is a rocky division - but it fits Milwaukee and their tough theme. Travis Shaw can really hit - which makes pitching to him tough. Milwaukee can also field their positions as well. San Francisco has not always been very competitive when they are giving up a lame avg of .260. The pitching staff of San Francisco has shown nothing other than beating some weak lineups and oftentimes have the team out of the game by the 5th inning when their 29th ranked batting stats. Milwaukee get this win on Tuesday night
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -157
They Rays are a solid choice and fit a small sample system that is rare and 6-0 since 2004. The Rays should get the win here as we play on home favorites off a 5+ run road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits.. Archer is on the mound and he is 3-0 vs the White Sox. Quintana for Chicago is 1-3 vs Tampa and has a 5.23 road Era. Chicago has lost 5 straight. Tampa is 4-0 off 3+ losses of late. Look for the Rays to take the opener.
Jim Feist
Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: Over
Minnesota starter Hector Santiago (4.76 ERA) has been getting worse, off a 17-6 loss to Houston. He's allowed 11 runs his last 12 innings. The team is 32-15-4 over the total on the road against a team with a losing record, plus 33-16-4 over versus the American League West. Seattle is #12 in baseball in runs scored, and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Mariners last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -103
The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Tuesday night. Philadelphia is 20-35 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 24-31 SU overall record on the season. Aaron Nola is 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA on the road this season and 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA his last 3 starts. Jaime Garcia has a 3.18 ERA overall this year, 1.88 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 0.42 ERA his last 3 starts. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in his 10 career starts vs Philadelphia. Philadelphia is 8-21 on the road this year where they are scoring only 3.9 runs per game. Philadelphia is allowing 6.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.5 runs per game at night where they have a 9-23 SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Doc's Sports
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -117
The Boston Red Sox visit Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, June 6, 2017 to play the New York Yankees. The probable starters are Drew Pomeranz for the Red Sox and Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees.
The opening line for this matchup has Boston at +113 and New York at -123. The Red Sox have a 26-28-2 over/under record and a 29-27-0 run line mark. The Yankees are 34-20-0 against the run line and have a 30-24-0 over/under record.
Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 26-28-2 against the over/under
The Boston Red Sox are 29-27-0 against the run line
Important New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 30-24-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 34-20-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Red Sox have a 31-25 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz has a 5-3 record with an earned run average of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.33. He has 64 strikeouts over his 51 innings pitched and he's given up 51 hits. He allows 9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.58. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.98 and they have given up 138 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .222 against the bullpen and they've struck out 175 hitters and walked 51 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.84. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 479 base hits and 213 earned runs. They have allowed 68 home runs this season, ranking them 17th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 136 batters and struck out 539. They have walked 2.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.23 and their FIP as a unit is 3.56.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Boston is hitting .267, good for 3rd in the league. The Red Sox hold a .411 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .340, which is good for 4th in baseball. They rank 8th in MLB with 9.1 hits per game. Mitch Moreland is hitting .263 with an on-base percentage of .361. He has 49 hits this season in 186 at bats with 28 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .446 and an OPS+ of 113. Mookie Betts is hitting .264 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .343. He has totaled 57 hits and he has driven in 33 men in 216 at bats. His OPS+ is 112 while his slugging percentage is at .468. The Red Sox have 509 hits, including 105 doubles and 53 home runs. Boston has walked 200 times so far this season and they have struck out 379 times as a unit. They have left 383 men on base and have a team OPS of .751. They score 4.84 runs per contest and have scored a total of 271 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
New York has a 32-22 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 6.34, Masahiro Tanaka has a 5-5 record and a 1.53 WHIP. He has 56 strikeouts over the 61 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 76 hits. He allows 11.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.18. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.06 and they have given up 126 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .198 against the Yankees bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 195 batters and walked 66 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.76. The Yankees pitchers as a team have surrendered 431 base knocks and 202 earned runs this season. They have given up 63 home runs this year, which ranks 20th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 159 hitters and struck out 500 batters. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.22 while their FIP as a staff is 3.76.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .265, good for 7th in the league. The Yankees hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .341, which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.3 hits per contest. Aaron Judge comes into this matchup batting .324 with an OBP of .429. He has 60 hits this year along with 41 RBI in 185 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .681 with an OPS+ of 190. Starlin Castro is hitting .315 this season and he has an OBP of .352. He has collected 69 hits in 219 at bats while driving in 31 runs. He has an OPS+ of 122 and a slugging percentage of .489. The Yankees as a unit have 500 base hits, including 89 doubles and 84 homers. New York has walked 207 times this year and they have struck out on 486 occasions. They have had 394 men left on base and have an OPS of .794. They have scored 5.44 runs per game and totaled 294 runs this season.
Teddy Davis
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Braves -103
The Phillies have been playing but the Braves have the big advantage here tonight.
Garcia is in great form right now with a .42 ERA his last three starts. He also carries an impressive 1.88 ERA at home. He has had good scores against the Phillies as well with a 2.90 ERA for his career
Nola has a 5.42 ERA his last three starts and is winless during those 3 games. He is coming off a terrible 3 innings pitched against Miami. I don't trust him here