SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA/Philly Over 8½
For the first 30 years that they were in Atlanta, the Braves played at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. It was known as the “Launching Pad,” as balls regularly flew out of the round, ashtray-type stadium that was a hitter’s paradise. It had the highest elevation in baseball, at least until Coors Field opened in Colorado in 1993. That was the big thought of why the balls carried so well and made ordinary hitters power hitters. So far this year at SunTrust Park, there has been an average of 2½ home runs per game. That’s the highest in the major leagues.
The players can even tell in batting practice when it’s a home run derby every day. Why is this new stadium different? Well, aside from that aforementioned elevation, home plate at SunTrust Park is pointed toward the southeast while Turner Field’s pointed north-northeast. Wind conditions are better. Right field in SunTrust Park is closer to home plate than it was in Turner Field — by five feet straight down the line and by 15 feet in the right-center field gap.
The beautiful thing right now is that the oddsmakers have not made the true adjustments. This park is playing like Coors Field and the total is like Citi Field. It’s absurd but it’s sweet as can be. We’ve been discussing other factors that affect the flight of the baseball and that, too, is in play here. There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at SunTrust Park is 57.91 and dropping. Keep in mind that Coors Field is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 64 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high density reading means low scoring. There are games from time to time at Coors Field that end up with five or six runs scored but those are few and far between and the same applies here. If the books posted totals of 8½ at Coors, they would get buried and we’re going to attempt to take advantage of this extreme house inefficiency until they make the adjustments.
COLORADO -1½ +201 over Cleveland
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
11-14 + 17.08 units
MILWAUKEE -1½ +161 over San Fran
The Brewers are a -125 favorite here, which is way the f**k off because they should be -160 or thereabouts. If this game was in San Fran and the Giants had Chase Anderson on their team and the Crew had Matt Cain on theirs, San Francisco would be at least a -170 favorite. That said, we’re not interested in spotting a quarter with the Brewers so once again, we’ll gamble a bit and lay the extra half run because there is tremendous value in that price too.
Chase Anderson has 29 K’s over his last 28 innings and comes into this start with an ERA/xERA split of 3.30/3.86. Anderson is pitching well and he usually gives his team a chance to win. We’ll elaborate more on Anderson when the time is right but he doesn’t have to be great here, as this one is all about fading Matt Cain.
Matt Cain is throwing every five days because the Giants are paying him 22.5M this season. If everything wasn’t about money, Cain would be on the golf course or mowing his lawn because he does not belong on the mound anymore. AT&T Park can make a lot of weak pitchers look good, like it did with Barry Zito for years and others. However, you get these stiffs on the road and it’s an entirely different story. At home, Cain is 3-2 with a 1.82 ERA but on the road, he’s 0-2 in five starts with an 8.28 ERA. Cain’s swinging strike rate in his last start was 1%. If pitchers didn’t bat, it might have been 0%. In 25 road innings over those five starts, Cain has walked 16 batters and struck out 12. Overall, Cain’s swing and miss rate is 4%. His overall WHIP is 1.54 but on the road it is 1.88. Matt Cain cannot avoid trouble here. He’ll be pitching with men on base all game and he’s likely not going to make it past four innings. The Giants weak pen will follow against a Brewers’ offense that is completely legit and very dangerous.
San Diego +174 over ARIZONA
Robbie Ray is coming off a complete game shutout in Pittsburgh in which he struck out 10 batters. Complete game shutouts these days are becoming as rare as no-hitters. Ray has now thrown three successive gems in a row in which he threw seven innings or more and didn’t allow a single run! Ray has now thrown 23.2 consecutive shutout innings with a BB/K split of 3/25 so his stock is through the roof. However, all three were on the road. Before those three games, Ray had an ERA of 4.57. His ERA at Chase Field is 6.75. He’s thrown 110, 102 and 115 pitches respectively over those past three starts so this could one in which he’s just not as sharp. Ray has been featured as an undervalued pitcher in this space for a couple of years now so what he’s doing comes as no surprise to us. He has the goods but the Diamondbacks decided to skip over him on Sunday to give him an extra day rest and now he’ll break routine to pitch here. Robbie Ray is legit but his 33% groundball rate does not and has not played well at this park. You will pay a hefty price to back Ray here against an unknown pitcher with just two major-league starts to his credit.
Through two starts in the big leagues, Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet has caught our attention. On Tuesday night against the Cubs, Lamet generated an outstanding 17 swinging strikes over 93 pitches, including 10 with his slider. Lamet has generated 28 swinging strikes through 184 pitches in his two starts, a 15.2% rate, which is well above the major-league average of 9.6% for starting pitchers. He has struck out 16 of the 42 batters he has faced, a 38% rate, which is also well above the major-league average of 20.3% for starting pitchers. He’s kept free passes under control, walking three of the 42 batters he’s faced, a 7.1% rate, slightly better than the league average of 8.3%.
It’s only two starts, but Lamet’s pure stuff jumps off the page. Lamet has averaged 95 mph with his fastball and has topped out at 98 mph. The average starting pitcher sits at 92.5 mph with his fastball. Here’s Lamet striking out Michael Conforto with 98 mph gas in the first inning of his start against the Mets last week.
Lamet’s slider has been highly effective. He’s generated 15 swinging strikes through 61 sliders thrown, a 24.5% rate with league average swinging-strike rate on a slider at around 15%. The pitch has sat between 83-88 mph and averaged about 86 mph. Here’s a back-foot slider thrown from Tuesday night that strikes out Jon Jay:
Lamet has also flashed a nasty change up. Lamet has sat 88-92 mph with his changeup and showcased some vicious movement on a few of them. This is a hard 92 mph change up that gets Jay Bruce to flinch before running over the plate for a called strike:
This is not the second coming of Clayton Kershaw here but Lamet’s performance has been too eye opening to ignore. His ability to miss bats with premium velocity and a nasty slider looks super legit, and he’s flashed a changeup that might be able to keep lefties off his fastball if he can find consistency with it. The 92 mph change he threw to Jay Bruce in his first big-league inning jumped out and showed a glimpse of what could be if he could harness a good third pitch to complement his electric fastball and slider combo. There will be growing pains but at this price against a team that has never seen him before, Lamet and the Padres are worth a bet.
Will Rogers
Nationals at Dodgers
Pick: Nationals
The set-up: The Nationals visit Dodger Stadium for a a brief two-game series, having already gone 6-1 on the team's nine-game road trip. Washington owns an National League-best 36-20 record heading into tonight's opener against the Dodgers, who have lost four of their last six to fall one game back in the NL West of the Rockies at 35-24. Jayson Werth will miss the next week or so with a left foot contusion but Washington's offense leads the majors in nearly every category and is well-equipped to overcome Werth’s stay on the DL. LA's offense just scored a total of two runs in back-to-back Saturday and Sunday losses to the Brewers and on the season, is about middle-of-the-pack. The Dodgers are batting .252 as a team (14th in MLB) and average 4.83 RPG (10th). However, LA is 21-9 at home, where the Dodgers are averaging 5.40 RPG.
The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (6-3 & 2.56 ERA) takes the mound for the Nats and Brandon McCarthy (5-2 & 3.38 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers. Scherzer recorded his first complete game of the season on Wednesday in San Francisco, allowing one run and striking out 11 without issuing a walk. He has registered double-digit strikeout totals in four of his last six starts and owns a 100-18 KW ratio on the season. Scherzer has allowed just 51 hits in 77 1/3 innings (0.89 WHIP) plus opponents hare batting only .186 against him after 11 starts in 2017. However, the Dodgers have given him trouble, he's 2-5 with a 3.53 ERA over 10 career starts (teams are 2-8!). McCarthy allowed two runs in four innings Thursday against St. Louis before leaving with a blister but said he felt fine during his bullpen session on Sunday. McCarthy has been very good at Dodger Stadium this season, going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts (LA is 4-1 ). He last faced the Nationals on May 14, 2014 as a member of the Diamondbacks and settled for a no-decision despite allowing one run in eight innings. In two career starts against Washington, McCarthy is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA and opponents BA of just .135 but his teams are 0-2 (?).
The pick: McCarthy has been particularly effective at home,(2.89 ERA in five starts while limiting opponents to a .212 batting average) and so have the Dodgers (21-9). However, the Nats are an impressive 20-11 on the road and I'll take Scherzer over McCarthy any day.
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St. Louis -129
St. Louis has won Adam Wainwright's last five starts and he's only allowed one run his last four outings which covers 26 1/3 innings. Wainwright hit a two-run homer in his latest win against the Dodgers on Thursday, which were the only runs in the game and that followed seven shutout innings at Coors Field. The Cardinals have won 42 of Wainwright's last 58 starts against NL Central teams and 36 of his last 51 road starts overall against losing teams. Tim Adleman will face St. Louis for the second time this season. It did not go well the first time as he gave up six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings and the Reds lost 7-5 on April 28 giving Cardinals hitters a .906 OPS against him. Look for St. Louis to snap its losing streak with Wainwright on the mound.
Dwayne Bryant
Phillies at Braves
Play: Under 8.5
Jaime Garcia's 57.1% GB% and Aaron Nola's 56.3% GB% put them 13th and 14th, respectively, among the 144 starters who have pitched at least 30 innings this season.
Nola owns a very respectable 3.78 xFIP, and active Braves hitters own a career combined .205 average and .297 wOBA against him. Nola is in a bounce-back spot after allowing a total of nine runs in nine innings over his last two starts.
Garcia is in a big-time groove. The Atlanta lefty has not allowed a single earned run in his last two starts, and has allowed just one earned run in his last 21 2/3 innings of work. Active Phillies hitters own a combined career .163 average, .368 OPS, and .165 wOBA against Garcia.
I'm not thrilled with either bullpen, which kept me from making a bigger bet here (I don't like F5 Totals).
Neither offense is anything special though. Considering the way Nola and Garcia have each handled tonight's opponent, I expect a lower scoring contest.
Power Sports
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Rays enter in off a poor weekend showing in Seattle (lost all three games), but tonight they are at home and have ace Chris Archer on the hill. Those two factors should be enough to down the White Sox, who are on an even longer losing skid at five games. Chicago was a bit of an early season surprise, especially on the runs allowed side of the ledger, but have allowed 10 or more runs three times during the current losing skid. Tonight's starter, Jose Quintana, has struggled himself recently and thus is unlikely to help reverse the trend.
On paper, this looks like a pretty big pitching mismatch w/ Quintana posting a 9.60 ERA his L3 starts. In his last two, he's been charged with 15 runs and 18 hits in only seven innings of work. That's not good. His overall ERA (5.60) is one of the highest among all qualified AL pitchers. Meanwhile, Archer is having a bouce back year after a disastrous 2016 where he actually finished dead last in all of MLB in net units. This year, the Rays have won 7 of his 12 starts and four times in the last six starts he's struck out 11 or more batters. Archer has never lost to the White Sox in his career, going 3-0 all-time.
Neither team had a good weekend, but the home team seems more likely to bounce back given the pitching matchup and venue. I'd recommend them here.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -117
For those of you looking for some free advice on tonight's series opener between these two hated AL East rivals on the MLB Network, I think there's some decent value with the Yankees in this one. It's been a rough go of things overall for New York's ace Masahiro Tanaka, who is 5-5 with a 6.34 ERA in 11 starts. It's been up and down. He had 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings two starts ago at home against the A's and then allowed 7 runs on 9 hits with only 4 K's in 5 2/3 innings at Baltimore. The big key here is Tanaka's success against Boston. He threw a complete game 3-hit shutout in his only start against the Red Sox this season and allowed 2 or fewer runs in all 3 starts against them last year. Red Sox are sending out Drew Pomeranz, who has pitched well of late, but is just 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA in 4 road starts and will be facing a red-hot Yankees offense that is averaging 5.7 runs/game and hitting .274 as a team over their last 7 games.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets vs. Rangers
Play: Mets -139
I like the value here with New York against what I feel is a defeated Texas team that will struggle to bounce back after getting swept at home in a huge 3-game series against division rival Houston. A series that left the Rangers 15.5 games out of 1st place in the AL West in early June. Injuries are playing a big part of Texas' struggles in 2017 and they will be giving the rock to Dillon Gee for his first start of 2017. Gee will be plenty motivated to face his old team, but I just don't think it's going to be enough for him to guide his team to victory.
New York will counter with Jacob deGrom, who is coming off an ugly outing at home against the Brewers, where he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 5 walks in just 4 innings of work. Prior to that he had been dominant in his previous two starts and when he is on, he's as good as it gets. I think he's primed for a strong outing here against the Rangers, who are just 6-17 in their last 23 home games after losing 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 7-24 in their last 31 games as an underdog.
Wesley Scott
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Padres +1½ -125
The San Diego Padres (23-25 Overall, 10-19 Away) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (34-25 Overall, 21-8 Home) in game one of this three game set.
The San Diego Padres have a losing record so far this season, but have played better than their record indicates over the last two series.
The Padres Swept the Cubs and then took one of three against the Rockies. Playing them close in all but one game in the series.
San Diego sends Dinelson Lamet (2-0, 2.70 ERA) to the mound against the Diamondbacks. Lamet has never faced the Diamondbacks in his young career.
In his last outing, he lasted five innings, giving up two runs against the Cubs.
The Diamondbacks counter with the solid pitching of Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.00 ERA). Ray has been dominate in his last several starts. He has not given up a run since May 14th. That was against the Pirates in a 6-4 loss.
Sine the loss Ray is 3-0 in three starts, giving up eight hits and no runs! Those number are Cy Young consideration level, but Ray is not the same pitcher at home.
This season Ray is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in Arizona.
Larry Wallace
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +110
Going with the Rockies here. Senzatela is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in the first six career starts at Coors Field, and has permitted four runs in three of his last four starts, but won twice in that span - including eight scoreless innings against St. Louis. The 22-year-old Venezuelan, who shares the NL lead in victories, has six quality starts in his last 10 outings. Rockies 2B DJ LeMahieu and OF Charlie Blackmon each went 6-for-13 in the series as the Rockies took two of three over the weekend at San Diego. Look for a close game and the Rockies to squeak out the win and Holland to add to his league leading 22 saves.
Doc's Sports
Pirates vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -122
It's always tough playing an interleague game on the road in a stadium you aren't familiar with. That task becomes even harder when it's against the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards. The O's are 19-10 at Camden this year and they've done a great job of building their lineup to take advantage of the park's dimensions. The Pirates are still in last place in the NL Central and are really missing Starling Marte and Jung-Ho Kang in the lineup. They'll eventually get it rolling, but I don't like this matchup for them.
Bruce Marshall
Mets at Rangers
Pick: Over
After sending for a police escort to get the Astros out of Arlington over the weekend, the Rangers have a slightly better assignment tonight vs. the Mets. Also a special night for Texas starter Dillon Gee against his old team. But trends suggest a higher-scoring game, as Texas was "over" 11-6 in 17 games before being shut down by Astros pitchers, while the Mets are "over" 34-11 in their last 45 "totals" decisions.
Swish Insider
St. Louis vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Our models give the Reds a 65.88% probability of covering +1.5 today vs Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. Now Wainwright's certainly been the better pitcher in aggragate, but he' shasn't been near as effective on the road, where's he's pitched his way to a 5.19 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Adleman's no stud, but he's at least been consistent, and the Cardinals have slashed just .214 / .286 / .332 over their last 12 games. Furthermore, the Red's boast a significantly better bullpen (3.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) than St. Louis (4.55 ERA, 1.44), so taking a home team +1.5 is a good option given the edge Cincy's has on the front. All told though, taking the Reds +1.5 at -141 carries a 12.6% projected ROI, so this pick is not only our highest rated run line pick, but also a play with great value.
Zack Cimini
Angels at Tigers
Pick: Angels
Former prized prospect Daniel Norris continues to struggle to find his path as a Detroit Tiger. His ERA of 4.47 should side step an Angels team continuing to be without Mike Trout. Angels starter Jesse Chavez has been a serviceable starter in an injury-plagued rotation. Grab the value here on the Angels to end the Tigers four game win-streak.
Larry Ness
Nationals at Dodgers
Pick: Nationals
The Nats have upped their road record to 20-11 on the season by winning SIX of seven on their current nine-game road trip. Their trek concludes Tuesday and Wednesday with two more games at Dodger Stadium (won 4-2 last night). The Nats own the NL;'s best record (36-20) and with no other NL East team better than 24-31, own a dominating 11 1/2 game lead in the division. The 35-24 Dodgers, who have won the NL West each of the last four seasons, find themselves in a tight-three way race with two surprising challengers. The 36-23 Rockies (75-87 in 2016) lead the Dodgers by a game and the 34-25 D'backs (just 69-93 last year) are just one game in back of the Dodgers.
The pitching matchup features Max Scherzer (6-3, 2.56 ERA) for the Nats and Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 3.38 ERA) of the Dodgers. Scherzer recorded his first complete game of the season on Wednesday in San Francisco, allowing one run and striking out 11 without issuing a walk. Scherzer has allowed just 51 hits in 77 1/3 innings and owns a 100-18 KW ratio, giving him an 0.89 WHIP (opponents are batting only .186 against him in 11 starts). However, he is just 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 career games (eight starts) against Los Angeles, including a 1-2 mark with a 3.98 in five outings at Dodger Stadium.
McCarthy allowed two runs in four innings Thursday against St. Louis before leaving with a blister (he says his fine, now). He has been very good at Dodger Stadium this season, going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts, while limiting opponents to a .212 batting average (LA is 4-1 ). He's only faced the Nats twice in his career but despite a 1.80 ERA and opponents BA of just .135, he is 0-1 and his teams have lost both games (go figure?).
The Dodgers only manged a pair of runs in losing Sunday in Milwaukee and last night at home to the Nats and come in losers of four of their last six. However, the Dodgers are 21-9 at home, where they average 5.40 RPG. That said, despite Scherzer's lack of success in his career vs LA, he's one tough opponent who pitches for a team which averages 5.68 RPG and owns an OPS of .821 (both figures rank first in all of MLB). The Nats are also batting .276 as a team (ranks 2nd) and their 87 HRs rank 3rd. I'll take the road team.
John Martin
Astros vs. Royals
Play: Astros -129
The Houston Astros are an MLB-best 42-16 on the season. They have now won 11 straight and will be motivated to keep their winning streak going. And this is one of the cheapest prices we've been able to back them at during this streak. That's because we have two unknown starters in David Paulino and Jake Junis, but the Astros have a big advantage with their lineup that's scoring 6.7 runs per game on the road while the Royals are putting up just 3.5 runs per game on the season. And the Astros have the bullpen advantage as well with a 3.32 ERA compared to the 4.67 ERA for the Royals. Houston is 9-0 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.