DAVE COKIN
NATIONALS AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: NATIONALS -135
This one is a bit chalky for me, as my preference in baseball is small favorites or underdogs. But I found the numbers here pretty compelling as far as the starting pitchers are concerned, and the team data supports Washington as the right side as well as the Nats open a set with the White Sox tonight.
Joe Ross continues to be consistently adequate or better for Washington. His splits are considerably stronger on the road, which bodes well for him against a White Sox team that has hit the skids. The Pale Hose are another losing streak, dropping their last three and Mat Latos is hardly a stopper. Latos is still 6-1, but you can make an argument he’s been about the luckiest starting pitcher in the game this season. Big edge for Ross on the mound in this one.
This game also features a substantial H/R offensive splits edge for the Nationals. Basically, we’re looking at an overall one-run edge for the Washington side, and factoring in current form, that advantage increases. The White Sox just aren’t hitting, and Ross doesn’t figure to be the best guy to suddenly cut loose against.
Laying close to 7:5 is not exactly a bargain. But with the White Sox is very poor form and the Nationals arriving off a needed win in the series finale at Cincinnati, I see the chalk as the way to play this one, and I’ll therefore make Washington the choice as tonight’s free play.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Phillies
Play: Cubs -1½
The Cubs are averaging over 6 runs per game on the road whole the Philies are hitting .227 at home and average under 3 runs per game. The Cubs are 9-3 as a road favorite in this range while the Phillies are 3-11 as a home dog in this range. The Cubs also fit a solid 91% database system that plays on certain road favorites off a -140 or higher road favored win scoring 5 or more runs if the total is 8 or less and their opponent scored 4 or less runs. Hendricks for Chicago has a 2.70 Era and 2.30 vs the Phillies. Eickhoff has a 3.93 era and has lost 8 of 10 starts.
Mike Lundin
Miami at Minnesota
Play: Miami -117
The MLB-worst Minnesota Twins have dropped six of their past seven games, and this looks like a good spot to back the Miami Marlins in the opener of a three-game series at Target Field Tuesday night.
The Marlins give the ball to left-hander Adam Conley (3-3, 3.72 ERA) who has posted a 2-0 mark with a 2.93 ERA in five road starts this season. He impressed home in Miami his last time out by holding the Pirates to two hits over six scoreless innings while fanning nine hitters in a 3-2 Marlins win. This will mark his first career start against Minnesota.
The Twins turn to a southpaw as well as Pat Dean (1-2, 4.15) will take the mound for the home team. Dean surrendered four runs on nine hits in five innings of a 5-1 loss at Oakland his last start when he surrendered a homer for a fourth consecutive start.
The Marlins .274 batting average against lefties is the fourth best mark in the majors. They're 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
Houston at Texas
Play: Texas -116
Edges - Rangers: Cole Hamels 9-4 career team starts versus Houston, including 4-0 the last four, and 10-2 last twelve overall home team starts. Astros: Dallas Keuchel 2-7 with 5.98 ERA last seven overall team starts. With Texas 14-2 in its last sixteen overall games in this series, including 10-0 at home, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Art Aronson
A's vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (2-3, 6.16 ERA) who continued his up-and-down season with a 5-1 win over the anemic Twins on Wednesday, giving up just one run off five hits over six innings. Manaea has looked horrible on the road, going 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA. The home side counters with Zach Davies (3-3, 4.53) who threw eight shutout innings in a 3-1 victory over the Cards on Wednesday. It was clearly the best start of Davies career and suffice it to say, we’re expecting an immediate return to mediocrity. Note that Davies has looked pretty ordinary in this spot this season, going 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA in all “night” games thus far. We’re not reading too much into a couple of decent outings and look for these inconsistent hurlers to get chased early, indeed making the OVER a very legitimate investment opportunity in this matchup.
Matt Josephs
Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9
Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to overs. The righty has allowed 17 runs and 19 hits in his last three starts and has a 6.59 ERA overall. Jimenez is 4-5 with a 5.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.552 in 12 career starts against the Royals. Lorenzo Cain (8-17) and Eric Hosmer (10-29) have good numbers against the Orioles starter. KC has gone over in nine of their last 12 games. It is a bit concerning that they struggled with Mike Wright on Monday, but the potential is there. Yordano Ventura is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in six road starts for KC. He has 17 strikeouts and 23 walks in 32 innings. Ventura beat the Orioles at home back in April, but struggled with them at their place last September. Baltimore has scored four runs or more in five of their last six and have an offense that should be able to hit almost anyone. These two have played six overs in their last nine meetings in Baltimore. I like this one to go over too.
Bob Harvey
Cubs vs. Phillies
Play: Cubs -1½
The Chicago Cubs look to continue their domination of the National League when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies in the second-game of a three-game set. The mound matchup features Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks and Philadelphia flamethrower Jerad Eickhoff.
The Cubs (40-16, 35-21 RL) have won 11 of their last 13 games to extend their best franchise start since 1907. Chicago is 4-0 against Philly this year, a solid 17-9 on the road and they’re now 38-0 when leading after eight innings thanks to a 6-4 win in the series opener on Monday. The Phillies (28-30, 28-30 RL) are as cold as the Cubbies are hot, having dropped nine of their last 11.
Hendricks (4-4, 2.84 ERA) has turned in two straight excellent outings, following up his complete game win against the Phillies with a strong performance to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. The Cubs righthander held LA to just two runs on three hits over eight innings to notch his sixth quality start in 10 outings. He’s been tough as nails against the Phillies, posting a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 innings this season.
Eickhoff (2-8, 3.93) has pitched better than his record suffering four of his eight losses in spite of quality starts. One of those came Thursday, when he held Milwaukee to two runs over 6 2/3 innings but was tagged with the loss in a 4-1 decision. Eickhoff is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts against the Cubs.
The Cubs have won eight of their last 10 games and Cubs starting pitchers are 8-1 with a 1.32 ERA over that stretch. They’ve earned their RL backers +17.85 this year.
Scott Rickenbach
New York at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +118
Certainly the Mets Steven Matz has better numbers than the Pirates Jonathan Niese in this battle of southpaws. However, it appears that far too much weight is being given to the pitching match-up here and not enough weight is being given to how these teams will match-up. Simply put, the Pirates have been worlds better in games against left-handed starters this season. In those games, Pittsburgh is averaging 5.6 runs per game which is exactly double of the 2.8 runs per game that New York has averaged in their games against lefty starters. The Mets lost 1-0 Sunday and that was the 6th time in their last 10 games that they have been held to 2 runs or less. The Pirates are also off of a home loss Sunday but they are still 5-2 in their last 7 home games and Pittsburgh has averaged 6.4 runs per game in these 7 games. It's no fluke either as the Pirates have averaged 10.6 hits per game in these 7 contests. Though one might expect the Mets to bounce back since they are off of a shutout loss Sunday, the opposite has been true as New York is 10-20 the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout loss. The Pirates are 8-3 this season and 25-9 the last 3 seasons when they are at home and the game has a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs.
Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 9.5
The Reds may be in last place in the NL Central, but they come into Game 1 of a home series versus St. Louis as winners of five of their last seven. They've been hot at the plate, scoring a whopping 66 runs over their last 10 games. We saw a slugfest in the last game in Cincinnati, when the Nats won 10-9 in the series final Sunday. Mike Leake will toe the slab for St. Louis, and the former Red doesn't have fond memories of pitching at Great American Ballpark. Leake (4-4, 3.82 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a 10-3 win at Milwaukee his last time out. During his tenure as a Red, he always had better numbers on the road. This trend has continued in St. Louis, but pitching in his former home park might not be an ideal spot for the right-hander. The Reds hand the ball to John Lamb, who is coming off a stellar performance in a win over the Rockies. Lamb (1-3, 5.58 ERA) allowed one run on six hits over seven innings in Colorado. Prior to that he was shelled by the Brewers, allowing six runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in a 9-5 loss at Milwaukee. The Cardinals lead the National League in runs scored, and they should have little trouble roughing up an inexperienced Cincinnati starter in this hitter's park.
Will Rogers
St. Louis vs. Cincinnati
Pick: St. Louis
The St. Louis Cardinals wrapped up the weekend with a pair of wins against the Giants in which they outscored their opponent 13-7. The Cincinnati Reds had a four game winning streak halted in a 10-9 loss to Washington on Sunday, and they appear to be over-matched here in Game 1 against the Cardinals.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to John Lamb (1-3, 5.58) who recorded his first win of the season his last start while holding the Rockies to one run in seven innings. He had allowed 16 runs in 13 2/3 frames in his past three starts prior to that performance. The Cardinals counter with Mike Leake (4-4, 3.82 ERA) who has been sharp in recent starts for his new club. The former Red will look to make an impression in his return to Cincinnati.
2. St. Louis Bats - Only Boston has scored more runs this season than the Cardinals, who rank 1st in the National League in scoring. Third baseman Matt Carpenter comes in swinging a hot bat, he hit .560 in six games over the past seven days, taking Player of the Week honors.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals' Jhonny Peralta is expected to make his season debut after injuring his thumb in Spring Training.
Brandon Shively
Boston vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under
I like this to be a lower scoring game for a number of reasons. The first is that both offenses are missing members of their starting lineup. For the Giants, Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are out. Pence is well known for giving the Giants an offensive boost when they need it. The Red Sox are down both of their starting catchers along with Brock Holt and now playing in a National League Park, will be without a DH, (David Ortiz). Ortiz might play first base but is listed as questionable with a sore left foot. The Giants best hitter in their lineup, Buster Posey, is in a 2-for-23 slump.
The Red Sox will start Rick Porcello who has a 1.09 WHIP on the season. Porcello did get knocked for three home runs his last start, but that was in Baltimore and I look for him to bounceback in a more pitcher friendly park. For the Giants, Albert Suarez gets his second start of the season. None of the Red Sox have ever faced him which should serve to his advantage. While Suarez will probably be limited to about 80 pitches, the Giants were off yesterday, so the bullpen should be fresh. The Giants have one of the least used bullpens in the Majors, so when they need them, the guys can be counted on.
The Under has cashed in 67% of the Giants last 27 interleague home games vs. a right handed starter. The Under is 5-2 in the Giants L7 games following an off day. The Under is 3-1-1 in Rick Porcello’s last 5 interleague starts.
Jim Feist
Rockies at Dodgers
Pick: Over
Colorado has a strong offense, fifth in baseball in runs scored, second in slugging, on a 10-4 run over the total. Starter Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.65 ERA) is struggling, off three straight losses 11-4, 8-3 and 10-5. Butler gave up eight runs on 11 hits and two walks while striking out three batters over four innings in a loss to the Reds on Thursday. The Dodgers go with the young phenom, Julio Urias (9.39 ERA), though the kid doesn't look ready for the big leagues yet surrendering 13 hits, 5 walks and 8 runs in 12+ innings. The Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings between these division rivals, including 10-4 at Los Angeles.
Jim Feist
Rockies at Dodgers
Pick: Over
Colorado has a strong offense, fifth in baseball in runs scored, second in slugging, on a 10-4 run over the total. Starter Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.65 ERA) is struggling, off three straight losses 11-4, 8-3 and 10-5. Butler gave up eight runs on 11 hits and two walks while striking out three batters over four innings in a loss to the Reds on Thursday. The Dodgers go with the young phenom, Julio Urias (9.39 ERA), though the kid doesn't look ready for the big leagues yet surrendering 13 hits, 5 walks and 8 runs in 12+ innings. The Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings between these division rivals, including 10-4 at Los Angeles.
Stephen Nover
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis -156
I really don't need an excuse to fade the Reds, but with the opening line dropping I have another good reason to back the road favorite Cardinals.
St. Louis starter Mike Leake is in excellent form - a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts - and should be extra pumped pitching against his former team. Leake is experienced pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park having made 85 career starts for the Reds. This is his first start there as a visitor.
The Cardinals have dominated Cincinnati winning 19 of the past 24 times during the last two years, including going 6-1 in the last seven meetings. St. Louis is 15-6 in its last 21 road games versus sub .500 opponents. The Reds have dropped seven of their last nine home games.
St. Louis' lineup is better now as shortstop Jhonny Peralta is expected to be activated from the disabled list today. He's been out all season after injuring his thumb during spring training.
Peralta's return strengthens the Cardinals at three infield spots because it gets disappointing Kolten Wong out of the starting lineup with Matt Carpenter moving from third base to second base.
The Reds have a bunch of junior varsity starting pitchers because of multiple injuries. Lefty John Lamb is one of those with a 5.58 ERA. He's allowed 17 earned runs in his past four starts spanning 20 2/3 innings. He's yielded 29 hits in his last four outings with as many walks allowed - nine - as strikeouts during this time frame. The Cardinals are 8-6 versus southpaws this season.
Cincinnati is 3-13 in Lamb's career starts. Making the Reds nearly an auto-fade is their brutal bullpen which has given up 145 earned runs and 43 homers in 200 1/3 innings for an ERA of 6.50.
ASA
A's vs. Brewers
Play: A's +120
Zach Davies had a great outing for the Brewers in his most recent start but it's not like Davies has overpowering stuff nor was he "mowing hitters down" before that start. With that said, Milwaukee is overpriced here in our opinion. The Brewers are not a very good baseball team and they have gone 3-5 (-3.8.) this season and 28-36 (-21.4) the past three seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -150. The Brewers are averaging only 3 runs per game in their last 7 games and we'll struggle to score runs against Sean Manaea of the Athletics. The Oakland southpaw has a 3.00 ERA in his last two starts and looked particularly sharp in his most recent start when he struck out 8 in 6 innings of work. Oakland is 5-3 in their last 8 games and averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. This is the A's first inter-league game of this season and they have gone a solid 24-16 in inter-league action the two prior seasons. Solid underdog value here absolutely worth a shot here with the underdog A's. We'll take the road team Oakland with the value on the money line Tuesday.