Dave Essler
Cincinnati +1.5 -110
Why wouldn't we back Leake back in the small park he knows well against a team that knows him even better and has just been white-hot at the plate. Lamb has been "better" as has the Reds pen the Cardinals pen hasn't I'll take a free run with a home team that can hit most every time.
Larry Ness
Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Washington Nationals
The White Sox have lost 18 of their past 24 to fall to 29-28, falling 3 1/2 games back of first-place in the AL Central. Chicago returns to U.S. Cellular Field on Tuesday to face the 34-23 Washington Nationals, who lead the National League East by two games over the New York Mets. "It is a tough stretch," Ventura said Sunday, after the Tigers swept Chicago in three games. "But there's nowhere to go but up. I think right now, you take this blow, and you've got to push back. You get a day off, and you go ahead and regroup."
This series opens a nine-game homestand for Chicago, which sends Mat Latos (6-1, 4.02 ERA) to the mound in tonight’s contest. Latos has a good W-L mark but he’s allowed at least four ERs in FOUR of his last six starts. However, he has enjoyed some success against the Nationals, going 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA in nine career starts (teams are a modest 5-4, though), striking out 48 in 53.1 innings. Latos may feel “under the gun” to produce a quality start, hoping to solidify his role in Chicago's rotation, as the White Sox just acquired veteran right-hander James Shields from the San Diego Padres on Saturday. That move bumped Latos to the role of fifth starter and moved fellow right-hander Miguel Gonzalez to the bullpen. If Latos' recent struggles continue, Ventura could opt to reinstate Gonzalez into the starting rotation.
Washington will counter with right-hander Joe Ross (5-4, 2.37 ERA). Ross is coming off back-to-back games in which he has limited opponents to one earned run over seven innings in each of the two. Ross has never faced the White Sox but the Nats are 7-2 against American League opponents this season, outscoring them 49-29. On a staff with high-profile starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Ross continues to distinguish himself with a string of consistent solid efforts. Yes, Ross has endured a four-start losing streak but he's permitted two ERs or less in EIGHT of 10 starts this season.
Expect his luck to turn, right here. As for Latos, the bullpen may be ‘calling!’
OSKEIM SPORTS
Tampa Bay at Arizona
Play: Arizona -160
Tampa Bay arrives in town with a scuffling offense that is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season (.241 AVG.; .303 OBP), including 3.8 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.229 AVG.; .291 OBP). The Rays now face a surging Zack Greinke, who is coming off a solid month of May wherein he posted a 3.82 ERA, 3.55 FIP and 3.30 xFIP . The talented right-hander displayed better control while also improving his strikeout percentage and home run rate.
While Greinke's 4.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP doesn't inspire much confidence, his 3.34 FIP and 3.52 SIERA are more accurate indicators of how he has performed in 2016. Indeed, both his swinging strike rate and strikeouts are similar to prior years, as is his walk rate. A more encouraging sign is the fact that Greinke is getting batters to chase more pitches outside of the zone this season. The 32-year-old also toes the rubber in excellent form with a 2.14 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay southpaw Matt Moore enters tonight with a 5.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, including a 6.33 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the road and a 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his last three outings. Moore owns a 4.80 FIP and 4.23 xFIP in 2016, together with a subpar 1.72 HR/9 rate. The lefty is also growing frustrated with the artificial pitch count placed on him by management, stating the following after his last outing: "It's baseball. This is not Little League with pitch counts or high school where they are trying to keep you healthy and things like that. This is the major leagues - it's time to go."
Moore posted a woeful 7.36 ERA, 5.93 FIP and 5.04 xFIP in the month of May and now facing an Arizona lineup batting .277 with a .433 SLG and .768 OPS versus left-handed starters. From a technical standpoint, Greinke's teams are 30-9 versus hitters who strikeout 7+ times per game and 94-36 as home favorites, including 63-17 as favorites priced at -150 or higher. The Rays are a money-burning 1-7 in Moore's last 8 starts, including 0-4 in his last four road outings. With Arizona standing at 7-3 in the last ten meetings in this series, including 4-1 in its last five at home, take the Diamondbacks and invest with confidence.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Washington at Chicago
Play: Washington -125
Chicago right-hander Mat Latos' house of cards has finally started to crumble as the soft-tosser has yielded 23 earned runs on 45 hits in his last 31 2/3 innings of work. Latos owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five evening starts and a 4.08 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts in 2016. Latos' underlying metrics match the regression of his surface statistics: 5.29 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA, 4.98 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 and a 4.1% K-BB%. In the month of May, the 28-year- old posted a woeful 6.41 ERA, 6.31 FIP and a 5.47 xFIP.
Meanwhile, Washington right-hander Joe Ross has been a pleasant surprise this season, garnering a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over ten starts. Ross also owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road, a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at night and a 2.29 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Ross toes the rubber knowing that first baseman Ryan Zimmerman has been reinstated from paternity leave and is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.
Technically speaking, the White Sox are a money-burning 5-16 in their last 21 games overall, including 2-7 in their last nine games versus teams with a winning record, 1-9 in their last ten versus right-handed starters and 1-8 in their last nine following a loss. In contrast, Washington is a profitable 39-19-1 in its last 58 games following a day off, 7-2 in its last nine games versus American League Central foes, 8-3 in its last 11 road games and 5-0 in its last five road games versus teams with a winning home record.
With Washington standing at 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, take the Nationals and invest with confidence.
CARMINE BIANCO
Georgia vs. Spain
Play: Spain -2.5
Tuesday's free play is an International Friendly as Spain plays their final Euro 2016 warm up match in Madrid against Georgia. With the 23 main squad named and ready for the tourney they rotate the squad today but we'll see future talent like Vasquez (Real Madrid) and Morata (Juventus) getting playing time today. Spain has tuned up with 3-1 and 6-1 over Bosnia and South Korea and should get a similar scoreline today. You'll have to lay 2 1/2 goals today which I wouldn't usually recommend but they scoreline today is likely 4 or 5 to nil so I'll back Spain on the goal line.
Sleepyj
Mets / Pirates Over 7.5 GM 1
I'll be on this over here today...Rained out game will be made up here and that helps the batters IMO...Pitchers like routine and this won;t help them much...Matz is pretty good , but facing a deep lineup like Pitt at home might get him into trouble..He struggles with his emotions and if the Bucs apply some pressure, he might fall apart...Pitt will send out Neise and the Mets know him rather well..They should be able to get to him for a few here..Bullpens might be the story here and we will have to get 1 or 2 off them..I think we can..Small play on the over.
Marc Lawrence
Mets at Pirates
Play: Mets
Edges - Mets: Steven Matz 8-1 with 1.84 ERA away MLB career team starts, including 7-0 the last seven. Pirates: Jonathan Niese 0-4 last four team starts during June. With Matz 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP away in his team starts this season, and in commanding KW form with 31 K’s and 5 BB’s his last five starts, we recommend a 3* play on the NY Mets.
Ross Benjamin
Mets @ Pirates
Play: Mets
Steven Matz is a perfect 4-0 in his road team starts with an excellent 1.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Matz has displayed terrific form over his last three starts, evidenced by his 0.82 WHIP during those outings. Since 2015, the Mets are 22-3 (.880) on Mondays and 66-29 (.695) when they’re -100 to -150 on the money line. Pittsburgh is a dismal 1-5 in its last 6 and 2-8 during their previous ten games. Take the Mets for a 5* money line wager.
Steve Janus
Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Royals +120
Play On - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts. This system is 31-11 (74%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. B
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -118
The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the majors by a wide margin this season. They are 40-16 overall and outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game on average. They are 18-8 on the road with an average margin of victory of 3.2 runs per game.
Kyle Hendricks is having a fine season in Chicago to keep up with what Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are doing. He is 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.672 WHIP in his last three. Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.702 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia.
The Phillies have gone just 2-9 in their last 11 games overall with eight of those losses coming by 2 runs or more. Jerad Eickhoff is 2-8 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 11 starts this season for Philadelphia. He gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings of a 1-4 loss at Chicago on May 28 this season. Hendricks pitched 9 innings of one-run ball to get the win in that contest.
Chicago is 35-21 against the run line (+14.1 Units) in all games this season. The Cubs are 14-5 against the run line (+9.6 Units) in road games in night games this season. Chicago is 17-5 against the run line (+12.5 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.
Brandon Lee
Marlins -114
Miami is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Twins. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and come into this game in bad form, having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. I'll take my chances with Adam Conley against a soft-hitting Twins offense. Conley has a 2.93 ERA in 6 road starts and is coming off a great start at home against the Pirates, where he allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings. Minnesota counters with lefty Pat Dean, who is coming off an ugly start at Oakland, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Miami is 8-2 and averaging 5.1 runs/game against left-handed starters this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers +107
Texas is showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Astros. The Rangers have one of the best home records in baseball at 22-9 and come into this game having won 4 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. Not to mention Texas is a perfect 7-0 against Houston this season.
The Astros are simply getting too much respect here due to having reigning Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel on the mound. While Keuchel is coming off back-to-back strong outings, he's still got a 5.50 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 12 starts with the Astros going just 4-8 in those starts. Keuchel has faced Texas twice this year and was hit hard in both outings, giving up 13 runs on 22 hits in 12 innings of work.
The Rangers counter with Cole Hamels, who has been much more consistent with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. Texas has gone 7-4 in those outings, including a perfect 2-0 in his 2 starts this season against the Astros, where he allowed just 2 earned runs on 10 hits with 18 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings of work.
Texas won 6-5 in the series opener last night and Houston is just 5-13 in their last 18 road games revenging a 1-run loss. Rangers are 14-4 in their last 18 home games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 18-8 in Hamels' last 26 starts after a win.
Dave Price
Arizona Diamondbacks -170
The Arizona Diamondbacks are hungry to get back on track as they sit at just 25-35 on the season after losing 6 of their last 8 overall coming in. They will send ace Zack Greinke to the mound to help them do just that tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Greinke is 7-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has turned the corner of late, going 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Matt Moore has struggled all year for the Rays. He's 2-3 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.968 WHIP in 4 road starts. Greinke is 63-17 (+32.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more in his career. The Rays are 1-7 in Moore's last 8 starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts.
Chip Chirimbes
Royals at Orioles
Play: Orioles
The Kansas City Royals are still playing like they have a hangover from last season's World Series victory as they have now dropped five straight as they have fallen three-games behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Baltimore on the other hand has won five of their last six and lead the AL East by a half-game over Boston. Yordano Ventura (4-3, 4.82 ERA) is 4-1 lifetime against the Orioles and had his best start of the season against them but the Royals are struggling.
Nelly
Marlins at Twins
Play: Under
Pat Dean has done a good job in three starts for the Twins plus two extended relief outings as he appears capable of filling a spot in what has been a disastrous starting rotation for Minnesota. Despite a very high .342 BABIP Dean has kept the damage to a minimum while producing nearly 8.0 K/9 and limiting walks. Dean has a quality start in two of his three starting efforts despite facing some tough matchups and this might be his most favorable matchup of his brief career. The Marlins are 8-2 vs. left-handed starters this season but this has been a dreadful offensive team of late, batting .215 with 2.8 runs per game over the last 10 games. Miami has topped four runs once in the last 10 games and Minnesota also continues to score at one of the league's worst rates. The Twins are 4-8 vs. left-handed starters this season and on the season Minnesota is batting .230 with 3.5 runs per game vs. southpaw pitching. Former 2nd round draft pick Adam Conley has been impressive in 11 starts despite fairly average conventional numbers. He has also been weighed down by a very high .325 BABIP but he still owns a solid 3.49 FIP that is lower than his ERA and his strikeout rate is approaching 9.0 K/9. Walks can be an issue for Conley but this is not a patient Minnesota lineup and Conley has allowed only three home runs in 58 innings this season. Target Field has been an 'over' park so far this season but that has been due to terrible pitching, as the Twins are scoring fewer than 3.7 runs per game at home. Dean has proven capable of a solid outing and the Minnesota bullpen outside of Kevin Jepsen has been one of the few bright spots in recent weeks. These teams haven't met since 2013 and in an unfamiliar matchup in a stadium that should generally be lower scoring, this looks like a high number for two of the lesser offensive squads in MLB with stronger starters than the rest of the series will offer tonight.