Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +144
Mike Leake has settled down after a terrible start and is now 4-4 with a 3.82 ERA after a 10-2 win at Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has won four of its last five games and lost a heartbreaker 10-9 to Washington on Sunday. The Reds' bats have come alive as they have averaged nearly eight runs their last seven games. Cincy has a .711 OPS against right-handers. John Lamb comes off his best start of the season, giving up only one run and six hits in seven innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field as the Reds won 7-2. Lamb also has a 2.81 ERA at home in 16 innings of work. The value is with the home underdog in this matchup.
Ian Cameron
Oakland at Milwaukee
Play: Oakland +110
After a rough beginning to his MLB career, Oakland's Sean Manaea is showing signs of the potential the Athletics saw in him when they picked him up from the Royals. Manaea has really started to turn things around over his last few starts allowing three runs or less in three of his last four starts with a much better 19-8 K-to-BB ratio during that span. His road ERA shows 27.00 but it was one rotten start against the very potent Boston Red Sox lineup. He should find it to be a much more manageable matchup in Milwaukee against a Brewers team hitting just .230 against lefties. After facing some tough AL lineups in his first seven starts including the likes of Boston, Houston, Seattle and Texas, this should be a bit of a step down in class. On the flip side, Zach Davies is coming off a surprisingly dominant outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in which he threw eight shutout innings. However, it’s worth noting Davies still has very mediocre peripheral numbers. His ERA is 4.53 and his FIP and xFIP are right in line with that. His walks (2.72) per 9 innings and strikeouts (6.89) per 9 innings are both mediocre at best and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% in 2015 to 8% this season. I like the plus price underdog tag with Manaea and the Athletics tonight at Miller Park.
MARCO D'ANGELO
Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins
Play: Miami Marlins -112
The Miami Marlins are in find form having won four of their last six contests. The Fish square off against the struggling Minnesota Twins, who have conversely, lost six of their last seven. The Marlins travel to Target Field where they open a three-game interleague series against the host Twins.
Miami heads to Minnesota for for Interleague action on Tuesday. This will be the first time either team has faced tonight’s starting pitchers so there is no added edge to either team in that regards. There is one huge edge regarding the starting pitchers and that is the fact that Minnesota starter Pat Dean is a lefty and that is not good as Miami has owned lefties this year. In 10 games vs left handed starters Miami is 8-2 averaging 5.1 runs a game. Adam Conley starts for Miami and in 6 road starts he has a solid 2.93 ERA. Note that Minnesota is a horrid 4-15 in competitively priced (-125 to +125) games this year. Minnesota is just 8-23 in night games this year with the opponents averaging 6.2 runs a game. My numbers say Miami Wins 6-4.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Toronto at Detroit
Play: Over 9.5
This would've been a premium play had I been around to get it at 9, but there's still enough value here (in my opinion) to make a small play OVER the total. My total line for this game is 10. No need to over-analyze this one.
Both lineups can absolutely rake
Neither bullpen is anything special
Hitter-friendly park
Favorable weather pattern (wind blowing out to left at around 14 mph)
Home plate umpire David Rackley shows an OVER bias
Aaron Sanchez has pitched well, but these Tigers are my #6 team against righties and I expect them to have success today now that they've been in the box against him.
Matt Boyd can definitely be had, and the Jays have already had very good success against him. That Toronto offense is just too much for Boyd to handle, and they should be ready to explode today after getting shutout in last night's series opener.
Harry Bondi
SAN FRANCISCO +105 over Boston
We go for our fourth-straight free pick winner tonight in interleague play as we go against Boston starter Rick Porcello. The veteran right-hander got off to a great start for the Sox and was one of the surprises of the year early on. But he has regressed in his last three starts with a 5.40 ERA and we think he is leaking oil. He won't be helped by the fact that DH David Ortiz will likely sit out tonight's game and the Red Sox bullpen swells from 3.78 overall to 4.86 when on the road. SF gets the W.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is with the Philadelphia Phillies plus the large money, against the Chicago Cubs. And in this game, I want you listing the scheduled starters: Kyle Hendricks and Jerad Eickhoff.
These two pitchers just met not too long ago, and in Chicago it was the Cubs with Hendricks topping the Phillies and Eickhoff.
Tonight it's the revenge theory.
I actually feel bad for Eickhoff, as he's been the Phillies' hard-luck pitcher this season. While the right-hander has made seven of 11 quality starts, he has just two wins to show for it. Plus, the Phils have averaged 2.58 runs per nine innings while he's been on the mound.
On the flipside, there's the impressive Hendricks, who went eight innings versus the Dodgers one start after throwing a complete game versus these same Phillies, and against Eickhoff. But, something tells me things could be different away from Wrigley Field, where the northpaw has a 1.99 ERA, having given up nine earned runs over 40.2 innings. On the road, however, he is 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in four starts. he's been tagged for 11 earned runs over 22.2 frames with a suitcase in hand.
Let's take a shot with this road pup tonight and list both.
1* PHILLIES
Scott Delaney
The Atlanta Braves were just beat up all weekend in Los Angeles, by the Dodgers, who outscored their guests 20-8 in three games. Riding a five-game slide, after last night's loss in the series opener, the Braves appear to be headed toward another long series, this one in San Diego, in a series the Padres will take full advantage of.
This is also the Braves' 15th game in as many days, as they played 10 in a row at home, then three in Los Angeles and now the first two of this series in San Diego. Trust me, the Braves want nothing more than to go home.
Since losing four straight and eight of nine, the Padres have won four of six and are in the right spot to reel off three straight wins.
2* PADRES -1.5
Brad Wilton
Tuesday's comp play winner will be the Over in the Indians-Mariners game with Cody Anderson and Wade Miley all set to serve them up!
Anderson is making the start for Carlos Carrasco, and his last start comes back on May 23rd. Anderson hasn't done all that much to impress, as he stands at just 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA for his time on the hill this year!
The Over has cashed in 9 of the last 11 times Anderson has made the start for the Tribe.
Wade Miley counters, and has totally lost his way for Seattle, as Miley enters this one with 18 runs allowed over his last 18-plus innings pitched!
Each of Miley's last pair of starts, and 4 of his last 5 starts overall have ended up sailing Over the total too.
These teams opened with an Under last night at Safeco Field, but that was the first Under in the last 8 games played in the Emerald City for the M's.
Back to normal tonight as the runs add up.
Cleveland-Seattle Over the total.
4* CLEVELAND-SEATTLE OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Boston Red Sox and the San Francisco Giants to play an Over by the bay this Tuesday night.
Rick Porcello is 7-2, but of late he has had some suspect assignments. Porcello is making his third straight road start, and has allowed 9 runs to score over his last 12 plus road frames worked. Both of those starts have ended up going Over the posted price.
Albert Suarez is making just his second career start, and he did allow 3 runs in his 5 innings of work against the light-hitting Atlanta Braves in his debut. Imagine what the Boston bats can and will do against the righty.
The Red Sox have played 3 of their last 5 Over the total, while the Giants have been Over in their last pair of games.
Look for an Over to open this interleague set tonight.
3* BOSTON-SAN FRANCISCO OVER
RAY MONOHAN
Washington Nationals -128
The Nationals head into Chicago here on Tuesday and hold solid value here. Chicago has been free falling as they once held a 6.0 game lead in the AL Central. This team has gone cold both offensively and with pitching and now enter a tough series against a very good Washington team.
Chicago has dropped 10 of 12 overall and have allowed 5 runs or more on 8 different occasions in that span. Mat Latos goes for them here, who does hold a 6-1 record, but isn't pitching that well.
He's allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of 6 outings. Washington counters with Joe Ross, who has been dominant this season. Ross has won back to back starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of 10 starts.
Some trends to consider. Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chicago is just not playing with much confidence right now. Given that, this is a nice spot to back the Nats.
Mike Lundin
Washington vs. Chicago
Play: Under 9
I think we'll see a low-scoring contest Tuesday night when the Washington Nationals visit the Chicago White Sox for the opener of a three-game series.
Joe Ross (5-4 , 2.37 ERA) will take the ball for Washington, and the youngster is having a great second season in the majors. Ross has held opponents to two runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts this season. He's allowed just two on nine hits in 14 frames through his last two starts.
The White Sox turn to Mat Latos (6-1 , 4.02 ERA) who has struggled lately, but he's posted a 2.53 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings covering nine career starts against the Nats. He has the current team limited to a .214 batting average over 98 at bats.
Both teams had Monday off, the under is 20-6-3 in the Nationals last 29 games following an off day and 4-0 in Ross' last four starts overall. Under is 19-7-2 in White Sox last 28 home games. This total looks extremely bloated to me.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +140 over SAN DIEGO
Aaron Blair is having a brutal season, making seven starts so far with five of those resulting in disasters. His skills support the poor performances, as he owns a 7.55/5.94 ERA/xERA split and a BB/K split of 18/16 in 31 frames. It's an ugly profile but the pitches and frame are there for him to be a mid-rotation guy.
Blair was an effective strike-thrower in the minors whose big hands and clean delivery gave him plus command, so his 18 walks in 31 frames is totally uncharacteristic. He's athletic for his size and repeats his delivery, projecting as a workhorse with a knack for going deep into his starts. Blair ranked among the Top 20 prospects in both the Southern and Pacific Coast leagues. In addition, he pitched for USA Baseball's silver-medal Pan Am Games team, starting against Cuba. We can certainly understand why some exercise caution in promoting the profile, because while there's "security" in a guy like Blair, if he happens to underperform that perceived security, you're left with something significantly less than a high-upside guy underperforming to the same degree. That said, two plus pitches and an average third suggests he should not be getting whacked every game. He’ll now face a Padres squad that is hitting .232 at home with an OPS of .646.
It’s been a rough 30 days for us over here but we are not going to let 30 days change our approach. Eventually these overpriced favourites will cave and we’ll start cashing some tickets. Colin Rea favoured in the -150 range is almost morbid. Rea has a BB/K split of 9/12 over his past 20 frames. His swing and miss rate is 5% and his ERA/xERA split is 4.58/5.94. Over his last five starts, Rea has an ERA of 6.64. Of course Rea can win here, as Atlanta isn’t exactly setting the world on fire but guys like Rea lose far more games than they win and cannot be favoured in this range. When offered a price like this against Rea, we are going to bite almost every time and absolutely make no exception here.
PHILADELPHIA +182 over Chicago
The Cubbies took the opener of this series last night, 6-4 to run their record to an incredible 40-16. Chicago was a -235 or more favourite in all three games at Wrigley this past weekend and won twice. On Friday afternoon, Chicago was up 1-0 in the eighth inning before scoring five times on two D-Backs errors in that inning. On Saturday, Arizona trailed 4-3 going to the eighth when Ricky Weeks Jr. came to the plate with the bases loaded and hit a missile up the middle that second baseman Ben Zobrist snagged just behind the bag for the out. Here is that play:
Two plays that could have changed the results that both went the Cubs’ way. In the series finale on Sunday, Chicago lost 3-2. The point is that the Cubbies were inches away from being swept by Arizona. They have had breaks like that since the first game of the year. They’re a team that does not hit well at all yet they’re tearing up the win column. The Mets and Nationals have outstanding pitching too but are playing just .564 and .596 ball respectively. The Cubs are one of the best teams in the majors but they are not a .714 ball club. They are excessively overpriced daily and now it’s just a matter of timing in terms of when to step in against them.
Jared Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 13/54 in 66 innings. Kyle Hendricks has a BB/K split of 13/51 in 63 innings. Those are almost identical marks. Eickhoff’s groundball rate is surging recently and is up to 59% over his past three games while Hendrick’s GB rate has been elite all season at 58%. The difference between the two is that Hendrick’s has a 0.4 HR/9 rate while Eickhoff has a HR/9 rate of 1.2. These two pitchers are very comparable with almost identical skills right across the board with the big difference being the parks they pitch half their games in. Hendricks has benefitted greatly by pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing in while Eickhoff has to battle Philadelphia’s Citizen Bank Park in half his games. Hendricks’ road ERA is 4.37 while his ERA at Wrigley is 1.99. This game should be priced much closer to a 55/45 proposition than a 67/33 proposition, which prompts us to step in.
Cleveland +108 over SEATTLE
Wade Miley would like to forget the first time he faced the Indians this season, as he allowed nine hits and and four BB’s in just 3.2 innings. We're not going to forget that. Miley's recent form has been terrible too, allowing 18 earned runs over his last three starts. In four home starts this season, he is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The Mariners have lost four in a row and eight of 11. Their only three wins over that span came against the Padres. They were even swept at home by the Twins recently and now this stiff, Wade Miley is favoured over one of the hottest teams in the league.
Cleveland has won six in a row but the market will pay more attention to Cody Anderson’s poor results. Anderson brings his two demotions (this year) to Triple-A and a 6.81 ERA into this start. However, what the numbers do not reveal are the hidden skills of this hard-throwing righty. Anderson throws strikes. He has a 67% first-pitch strike rate and a high percentage of overall strikes. He also brings 95 MPH heat with late life. Anderson has been ruined by an incredibly low 57% strand rate this year. This is a kid on the verge of a breakout. He went 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 91 innings last year for Cleveland. A Strong showing in AAA (1.89 ERA in 71 IP) netted his late June call-up, where he continued to roll. He also dominated spring training this season. Cody Anderson is coming off a five-hit performance in seven innings at U.S. Cellular Field. That had to feel pretty good and it also had to give him his confidence back. Now we get him at a bargain price against the reeling Mariners.
Washington -1½ +129 over CHICAGO
Joe Ross has been both lucky and good so far in 2016. He's done a nice job of limiting the walks, having not issued more than two in any game. Ross had a 5.6 K’s/9 rate in April, but got it up to 7.6 in his six May starts, all of which he induced double digit swinging strikes in. He has a 21% swing and miss rate on his slider, which he throws more than one-third of the time. Ross keeps the ball on the ground at a nice 47% rate, therefore, the long ball probably won't be much of an issue for him. Ross has dodged some bullets, as he currently ranks sixth among National League starting pitchers in strand rate. He'll have a difficult time maintaining his current rate, which will inevitably lead to more runs crossing the plate. Still Ross is off to an excellent start in 2016, and his combination of swing-and-miss stuff, solid control, and a ground ball tilt make him a worthy investment here against a laboring Chicago team.
Mat Latos is 6-1 while Kevin Gausman of the Orioles hasn’t won a game this season. It’s just a reminder that the baseball gods do not give a flying f**k about numbers or who emerges victorious. What we know for sure is that Latos has 31 K’s in 56 innings. What we know for sure is that he misses few bats and that the ball is put in play on him almost every time he faces a batter. Mat Latos does not have one redeeming quality but he gets guys out because the ball is hit right at people. If that happens again here, so be it but we wouldn’t bet on it. The stash of pixie dust that Latos was using to escape his shaky peripherals is about to be cashed in.