Free Picks for Tuesday, May 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BREWERS AT METS
PLAY: OVER 9
Zach Davies will take the mound for Milwaukee tonight as they try to even up their series with the Mets on the heels of the 4-2 Monday loss.
Davies is in pretty much typical form. The Brewers righty rarely dominates but usually does well enough to keep his team in the game with a chance to win. He’s up against a New York offense that has been very productive lately in spite of the continues absence of Yoenis Cespedes. I don’t see Davies necessarily getting blown up here, but I do think the Mets can put a few on the board against him.
Tyler Pill will take the hill for his first big league start. Pill has been in the Mets organization for several years. He figures to be heading back to Las Vegas with Matz and Lugo about to rejoin the parent team shortly, so this is probably a one or two-shot deal for Pill.
Pill is not really considered to be a prospect at this point, and I’m not sure his stuff is going to play at this level. Pill is a soft tosser who needs to be pinpoint with his location. He has pitched well for the 51’s, but I suspect potential trouble looms against a potent Milwaukee lineup.
I would imagine this is a bullpen battle from the sixth inning on, and it’s not like either of the entries has sensational relievers, so I think there’s a very good chance this become a fairly high scoring game. Not much wind to factor in, but projected breeze is is out to left center, so no red flags on that count. I’m giving the offenses the edge tonight and will try the Brewers and Mets Over the number.
Scott Rickenbach
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +167
Big match-up as Boston's Chris Sale goes against his former team for the first time since going to the Red Sox. Though Chicago's Jose Quintana is off of a poor start he had allowed just 29 hits in the 40 innings spanning his 6 prior starts! The southpaw is fully capable of stepping up with a rock solid start here in a marquee match-up and the White Sox did win the battle of the southpaws yesterday too. The Red Sox are now just 4-4 this season against lefties while the White Sox are a stellar 11-5 against lefties this season. Why the variance? A lot of it has to do with the fact that the ChiSox are the #1 team in the American League for slugging percentage against lefties as they are at .457 so far this season. The Red Sox are just 9th out of 15 teams as their slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching is only .373 on the season. Love the home dog value here with the White Sox as Sale has a 3.38 ERA in his last 3 starts so he has cooled down from his insanely hot start this season and his strikeout numbers have trended downward as well. You know the ChiSox want this game badly and they are 3 games over .500 at home this season while the Red Sox are 3 games under .500 on the road so far this season. Look for the ChiSox to improve to 5-1 as a home dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season! This is their sweet spot and they get the job done again Tuesday.
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee at New York
Play: Milwaukee +105
Milwaukee lost for the first time in Zach Davies' last seven starts on Thursday, but the right-hander gave up only three runs and seven hits in six innings against the Diamondbacks. Davies has pitched much better on the road this season with a 2-0 record and 3.74 ERA and also in his career posting a 9-3 record and 3.84 ERA away from home. Also, he's been solid in May after a bad April, which is similar to last year. Tyler Pill made his debut in relief during Saturday's 5-4 loss to the Pirates and it did not go well. Pill gave up a hit, walk and hit by pitch in two-thirds of an inning. New York won 4-2 on Monday, but they still are only 12-15 at home and the first-place Brewers are 13-9 on the road. The Mets have lost seven of their last nine against teams with winning records and Milwaukee has won five of the last six meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Mariners vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -123
Edges - Rockies: Anderson 32 Ks and 7 BBs last four starts… Mariners: Miranda 6.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP away as opposed to 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP home this season. With Seattle just 1-7 on Tuesdays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Dustin Hawkins
A's vs. Indians
Play: A's +151
Cleveland pitcher Trevor Bauer is 6-13 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.The Indians are only 7-11 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Cleveland is 6-11 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.
Tony Karpinski
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8
The WhiteSox have been good at home and Jose Quintana who retired the first 10 batters he faced vs Arizona last week, went just 4 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs and eight hits, both season highs. Look for him to bounce back and Chris Sale who faces his former team to be fired up and this game to be a pitchers duel.
Mike Anthony
Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Arizona -106
Robbie Ray vs Ivan Nova Arizona are really reaching their stride - hitting like rapid animals over the last 10-12 games. Arizona has been better than most with their bats at 3rd in the majors at .263 and Robbie Ray is a very good strikeout pitcher as well. The sad goal for the "struggling to win" Pirates is to just finish better than they did last year - when they struggled - but not as bad as this pitiful season. Pittsburgh just simply cannot hit as good as the players of Arizona. Nova does not get many strikeouts and that spells trouble against the DBacks here on Tuesday night.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Giants
Pick: Under
A long road trip for Washington heading to a big San Francisco park. Washington is 35-16-5 under the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Gio Gonzalez (2.90 ERA) is on the mound facing a weak San Francisco offense. San Francisco is 12-5-2 under the total against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Under is also 18-5-3 in Jeff Samardzija's last 26 starts overall. And the Under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
The Twins are up 6 runs on Monday and then the roof caved in as Houston exploded for a 16-8 win. That loss for Minnesota sets them up in an 80% bounce back system. They have Berrios going and they have won his last 4 starts as he has been solid since coming up from AAA. Fiers for Houston has lost 3 of his last 4 road May Starts. Look for the Twins to bounce back.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Pick: Tampa Bay
Coming into the 2017 season, I felt that among AL teams, these two best represented likely "regression to the mean." What do I mean by that? Well, 2016 saw Texas win 95 games and the AL West despite only outscoring foes by eight runs over the course of the season. That statistical anomaly can be explained by a historically fortunate 36-13 record in one-run games. Bottom line is that while the Rangers might look better on paper coming into 2017, I firmly believed that they would win fewer games than LY. Sure enough, despite having that identical +8 run diff through 52 games, they currently sit at two games below .500.
Meanwhile, I felt that the Rays were due for a bounce back season. They experienced the "flip side" of luck in one-run games LY, going a MLB-worst 13-27 in them, which was partially responsible for them finishing so far off the pace in the AL East. This year's team is probably still underperforming as they've actually outscored opponents by 28 runs, but are only two games above .500. Their 4-9 record in one-run affairs right now is an American League worst.
But ... TB did win 10-8 yday here in Arlington and I see a significant starting pitching edge for them tonight. Matt Andriese has won each of his L3 starts and comes off a gem where he threw eight scoreless innings of six-hit ball against the Angels. The Rangers go w/ Nick Martinez, who projects as one of the uglier starters of the day. His numbers here at home aren't bad, but he's a low strikeout pitcher that rarely goes deep into games. In fact, in seven starts this year, he's made it past the sixth inning only one time. He has a 5.25 career ERA against the Rays.
Dennis Macklin
Nationals vs. Giants
Play: Under 7½
Geo Gonzalez is the oft forgot starter in the Nat rotation but he rocks a below 3.00 ERA in his seven starts and is what he is, he'll generally make a quality start and last six innings ... giving you a chance to win and close things out with the pen. Jeff Samardzija was brutal in his first five starts but has really come around in his last three starts rocking a 2.49 ERA and 0.93 whip while walking just one and striking out 24. The Giants are not hitting a lick (.203 L7) and 11 of the last 14 in the series have gone under the total. Would like to get eight as the total here but we'd all like an extra half run on all our totals.
Bruce Marshall
Brewers at Mets
Pick: Over
Well the Mets has a rare "under" on Monday, only their 5th in their past 31 games, but that hardly gets us off of another "over" tonight vs. the Brewers. Especially since Terry Collins rolls the dice with rookie starter Tyler Pill, who was a bit unsteady in his debut, a short stint vs. the Pirates last Saturday. Meanwhile Milwaukee's Zach Davies has improved in May upon his poor April numbers, but still sports an ERA at 5.33.
Will Rogers
Seattle vs. Colorado
Pick: Under 11
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners made it two straight wins with Monday's 6-5 victory in Coors. However, Seattle had dropped seven of eight games before posting those two straight wins. The series-opening victory leaves them six games below .500 (23-29) in a season in which they were expected to be playoff contenders (Seattle is already 13 games back in the AL West). More than 80 player moves and the use of 12 different starting pitchers has made life a challenge for Seattle manager Scott Servais. The Rockies have three losses in five games but the team which went 75-87 last year still boasts the best record (33-20) in the National League!
The pitching matchup: Ariel Miranda (4-2 & 4.22 ERA) will start for Seattle and Tyler Anderson (3-4 & 5.40 ERA) for Colorado. Miranda comes in pitching well, having allowed just four ERs over 17 innings in his past three outings with 21 strikeouts during the stretch (2.12 ERA but the team is just 1-2 in the three games). Miranda has never faced Colorado and has made just 20 career starts. He is 3-3 with a 5.66 ERA in 11 career road appearances (10 starts). Anderson has also pitched well of late, going 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA over his last four starts (Rockies are 2-2). Anderson will be facing Seattle for the first time and is 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA in 16 career starts against at Coors Field.
The pick: Anderson has pitched well in Coors (see above) and Seattle has averaged only 3.87 RPG on the road in 2017. Miranda also comes into this contest in good form and the Under will be no surprise.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
10-14 + 12.78 units
Oakland +150 over CLEVELAND
The Indians have scored 15 runs the past two games while the A’s have lost 18 of 25 games on the road, thus setting up this inflated price.
Trevor Bauer has been a perpetual tease and chronic flop throughout most of his MLB career. Such has been the case so far in 2017 (6.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 50 IP). Some bad luck has victimized Bauer this year, as his high 35% hit rate, low 57% strand rate, and high 21% hr/f will attest to so there's some positive regression coming. Here’s where it gets interesting. Bauer has 59 K’s in 50 innings, which is elite and the books are putting too much emphasis on that. We’re seeing that his high strikeout rate does not have merit because his swing and miss rate is average at best (9%) and his first-pitch strike rate of 53% is awful. Trevor Bauer on his best day cannot be priced in this range over Sonny Gray.
After an electric 2015, in which he finished third in Cy Young voting, the future looked bright for Sonny Gray but 2016 ended with dimmed lights with injuries and poor performance all year. After a lat strain to start 2017 and struggling in his first two starts, Gray’s looked better recently. Much better. Gray struggled with walks in 2016, but that’s not been the case this year. His first-pitch strike of 63% and rising confirms he’s doing a fine job getting ahead of hitters. He’s also generating more swinging strikes. Gray is elite at inducing grounders (59%) too. He’s struck out 28 batters in his last 30 frames and his groundball rate over that span was 64%. Sonny Gray is quietly returning to the from that made him a Cy Young finalist in 2015 so the window to buy low on him is closing fast. Time will tell if this is the best bet on the board today but it has to be considered one of the best value plays of the season so far.
SAN DIEGO +127 over Chicago
We previewed Dinelson Lamet in our MLB call-ups section last week and will run that piece again here now:
The Padres will call up the 24-year-old from Triple-A and he’ll make his major league debut with a start today (Thursday, May 25). He could make multiple starts if all goes well initially. Lamet was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014 and has flown under the radar ever since despite posting impressive numbers at each level of the minors. Not only is he tough to make hard contact against, but he misses bats with two plus offerings in his 92-96 mph fastball and high-80s slider. Lamet has a tall, strong frame and can pitch downhill with his arm slot. His fastball also features late, tailing action which gives him high groundball tendencies. While he just started to use a change-up in 2016, it has shown promise and should become another decent pitch in his arsenal. Lamet has been effective against hitters from both sides, but he needs to seriously upgrade his command in order to exceed his lofty expectations. If he can get ahead in the count and rely on his slider, he could become a high strikeout pitcher in the majors. He is certainly worth watching and if the Mets had anyone but deGrom pitching today, we’d probably grab Lamet at this price. Lamet has a career 2.99 ERA, 3.8 BB’s/9 and 10.1 K’s in the minors.
STATS: El Paso (AAA) – 8 GS, 3-2 3.23 ERA, 39 IP, 4.6 BB’s/9, 11.5 K’s/9, 2 HR, .222 oppBA
Lamet was rock solid in that debut by going five full innings against the Mets in New York and allowing just three hits and one run while striking out eight batters. He was throwing 96 MPH heat in his debut with a 13% swing and miss rate and is certainly worth another wager here. We suggested last week that we would bet him had he not been opposing Jacob deGrom but as it turns out, deGrom was a late scratch and San Diego ended up winning that day.
Eddie Butler pitches for the Cubs. That makes him overvalued before a single pitch is even thrown. While pitching for the Cubbies adds value to every starter, this one is a big risk because he’s constantly behind in the count and walks more batters than he strikes out. Butler comes in with a 1.93 ERA after three starts but that’s a tiny sample size for a starter with a career 6.13 ERA previously. Butler’s 86% strand rate and 23% hit rate are both luck driven numbers that numbers that are unsustainable. This is a pitcher with 10 walks and nine K’s in 14 innings to go along with a below average 8% swing and miss rate. That Butler's ERA is elite is a nifty sleight-of-hand in light of his 1.82 xWHIP and wretched BB/K ratio. A correction to the bad in Butler’s ERA is forthcoming but more importantly, you are going to pay prices to back any starter on the Cubs and this one is the least worthy of them all.