Chase Diamond
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +130
Yesterday I gave you guys a free winner on the Pirates today I turn my attention toward the Royals and the Detroit Tigers. I love fading Justin Verlander for awhile now he just gets to much respect from the books with not very good results he has 58-29 strike out to walk ratio. Royals have lost 2 straight games and need a win at home badly. They send 24 year old Eric Skoglund to the mound. Love the Royals here to cash this plus money ticket.
Tony Stoffo
Washington vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -115
Washington will send out LH Gio Gonzalez who is winless in five May starts and has pitched six innings or fewer in four of the outings while compiling a 4.40 ERA for the month. The Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 road games and 5-12 in Gonzalez's last 17 road starts. San Francisco hands the ball to RH Jeff Samardzija. The Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in San Francisco. San Francisco opened as -110 favorites and the line has risen to -118 in some spots even though nearly 60% of all bets are on Washington, indicating sharp money backing the Giants and so will we.
Brandon Lee
Rangers -102
I was on the wrong end of a tough loss yesterday with Texas blowing a 2-run lead in the last 3 innings, but I got no problem jumping right back on them Tuesday against the Rays. Texas ended up losing 8-10 and that offensive outburst in a losing effort is important to note, as the Rangers are 10-1 over the last 3 seasons after scoring and allowing 8 or more runs in a game. Texas is also 33-17 in their last 50 home games with a money line of +125 or -125. It's also worth noting that Tampa Bay starter has struggled with Texas in his career, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in 3 starts.
John Martin
Cardinals +111
Good value here with the St. Louis Cardinals as home dogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five and need a win to stem the tide. The Dodgers are getting too much love after winning five straight coming in. The Cards have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Michael Wacha, who is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five home starts this year. Kenta Maeda is 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three road starts this season, and 4-2 with a 5.08 ERA in eight starts overall. Wacha is 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA in seven starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 3-17 in their last 20 road games following two or more consecutive wins.
Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Play: Dodgers -121
I cashed in on the Dodgers with my free pick on Monday and will fire right back with LA on Tuesday. The Dodgers are one of the most talented teams in the league and are playing some of their best baseball right now. LA has won 5 straight and are 10-2 over their last 12. While the Dodgers are surging, St. Louis is going in the opposite direction. The Cardinals are a mere 3-9 in their last 12.
LA won the series opener 5-1 yesterday and that continued a poor run at the plate for St Louis, who is averaging just 2.6 runs/game and hitting .212 as a team over their last 7 games. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have scored 5 or more in 3 straight and 9 of their last 12. LA will send out Kenta Maeda, who has a 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last 3 starts. T
Jack Jones
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +128
The Baltimore Orioles are consistently undervalued at home. They are 16-7 at home this season and 19-7 in their last 26 home games dating back to last year. And now they're home dogs to the New York Yankees today.
Chris Tillman has made just four starts this season as he has battle injuries. But he's starting to come into his own with a 4.43 ERA in four starts, and a 3.94 ERA in three home starts. He is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees as well.
Luis Severino is off to a great start this season for New York, but he's unlikely to be able to keep up this level of performance, and he's overvalued right now as a result. Severino is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles are 11-3 in Tillman's last 14 starts against the Yankees, including 5-0 in his last five home starts vs. New York. The Yankees are 7-22 in their last 29 meetings in Baltimore. The Orioles are 55-25 in their last 80 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore is 25-11 in Tillman's last 36 starts overall, including 15-5 in his last 20 home starts.
Dave Price
Oakland A's +154
I really love the price on the Oakland A's as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Indians today. I would certainly argue that the A's have the better starter here. Ace Sonny Gray is back healthy this season and is 2-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 5 starts this year. He has struck out 19 batters while allowing only 10 base runners in 13 innings while winning each of his last 2 starts. Trevor Bauer has been awful. He's 4-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 9 starts this year. Gray is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.
The Prez
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians
Play: Oakland Athletics +152
The Oakland Athletics continue to struggle bunches hits together and take their 22-28 record onto Progressive Field tonight with and American League dance against the Cleveland Indians and their 26-23 mark in 2017. The first pitch in this event is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET with A's righty Sonny Gray (2-1, 3.34 ERA) opposing Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer (4-4, 6.30).
There are a large number of subplots in this AL contest. Are the 26 win Tribe, runners-up in last October's Fall Classic fake news? The Indians have 11 of their 26 wins against the soft American League West while earning only 10 total wins on their home turf through the first two months of the season. MLB pundits ranked the Indians pitching staff as the AL best to begin the season but Bauer enters tonight's event with a 6.30 ERA. (10-13) as they continue a four-game series against the visiting Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night.
Ex-Blue Jay slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who signed as a free agent with the Indians in the offseason, ready to earn his paycheck? Encarnacion hit his 10th homer and extended his hitting streak to eight games in Monday's 5-3 win over the Athletics.
Oakland has the worst road record in the American League but send their top pitcher to the mound tonight in an effort to avenge Monday's loss vs. the Tribe. Gray dominated the Miami Marlins in his last start striking out 11 while surrendering just one run on three hits over seven innings. Previous to his solid turn against the Fish he struck out eight over six innings allowing three-runs in a win over the Boston Red Sox. The A's righty is also familiar with how to pitch the current Indians lineup. The A's ace is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA in his career against Cleveland.
There are not many positives to attach to Bauer's performance this season. He failed in his last trip to the mound and while he was aiming to win his third straight in the turn against the Cincinnati Reds his numbers this season, both traditional and underlying, are putrid. Bauer's Achilles is Oakland’s strength. This isn't your fathers A's team that was selective at the plate and drew walks. No, this Oakland lineup has the power to go deep and the long ball has been Bauer's struggles. The Tribe righty has allowed 11 homers in his nine starts this year.
Bauer started the season with six starts in which he allowed four or more runs in five of those. You will occasionally get a strong outing from Bauer but he isn't just having a bad stretch he isn't hitting his spots, his heavy fly ball tendencies have increased by 10 percent this season and his swinging strike percentage has dropped nearly five percent.
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona at Pirates
Play: Under 8
In Arizona's Robbie Ray, we get a guy with the league's 6th-best K% (29.8%) among starters who have thrown at least 40 innings this season. That helps offset his 11.7% BB%. Ray is in excellent current form, as he has tossed 14 2/3 scoreless innings over his last two starts. He allowed just four hits in those two starts, both of which were on the road. Ray is at home on the road this season, as is evident by his home/road splits (6.75 ERA & 1.65 WHIP at home; 0.81 ERA & 0.84 WHIP on the road). Ray got tagged for 4 runs in 4 innings against these Pirates at home just 16 days ago, so I expect him to make the necessary adjustments against a Pirates team averaging just 3.3 runs per home game against lefties this season.
Ivan Nova opposed Ray in that 5/14 matchup in Arizona, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. Nova does give up hits, but the damage is minimal due to two things: 1) His incredibly low 1.8% BB%; and 2) His 50.2% GB%, which puts him 24th out of 122 starters who have tossed at least 40 innings this season.
Neither bullpen is anything special. Not great, but not bad either. Nothing noteworthy in regards to current form.
We get Eric Cooper behind the plate tonight. Cooper shows a very strong Under bias. In fact, the Under is 24-10 with Cooper calling balls & strikes since the start of last season.
Wunderdog
Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +100
Pittsburgh defeated the Diamondbacks on Monday to improve to 14-11 at home and Arizona falls to 10-14 on the road. The Pirates have won Ivan Nova's last three starts and he is 5-3 with a 2.83 ERA on the season, including 3-1 and 2.39 at home. The Diamondbacks are near the bottom in every offensive category in road games as compared to hitter-friendly Chase Field. Robbie Ray faced the Pirates on May 14 and gave up four runs on six hits in four innings as Pittsburgh won 6-4. The Pirates have won the last three meetings and seven of the last nine and the Diamondbacks are currently on a three-game losing streak while being outscored 19-9. Also, Pittsburgh has won 52 of its last 74 games against NL West teams and has beaten Arizona six straight at PNC Park.
Otto Sports
Oakland at Cleveland
Play: Under 9
Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has always been a guy that at times can't get out of his own way. But there's no denying that he's got above average MLB stuff. Bauer has been on the unlucky side of things this season with a .328 BABIP and 65% LOB rate. He's also allowed home runs on over 22% of his fly balls. Despite that, his strikeout rate is north of 10 and his walk rate is right on par with his career average. All of this of course plays out in Bauer's sky high ERA (6.30) and above average xFIP (3.42). It’s tough to label and Cleveland pitcher as “bet on” due to the Indians’ inflated status in the betting markets but Bauer has better days on the horizon. After throwing a ton of innings in college and back-to-back 200+ innings his second and third seasons for the A's, I think Sonny Gray benefited from having an abbreviated 2016 (117 IP). He started the season on the DL but looks to be at full strength with 19 strikeouts and 31 swinging strikes in his last two starts. I really see both starters as being a bit undervalued at this point -- and both with the capabilities to shut down the opposing team's offense. Total hovering around 8.5/9. Worth it in my opinion to seek out that key 9 and play under.
ASA
Braves at Angels
Play: Over 8.5
The Braves hand the ball to Bartolo Colon for this one and he has given up 33 earned runs on 60 hits in his last 36 innings. The most concerning thing about those numbers is all the hits as the fact is that Colon is getting hit hard in each and every outing he makes. The fact that Mike Trout is now out for the Angels is adding even more line value here for his over because it is holding it lower than it should be. Look at it this way…none of those 60 hits in 36 innings came off of Trout’s bat! Colon is 44 years old and the fact is that he can no longer consistently retire major league hitters. In fact, father time has caught up with Colon and it’s time for him to retire! The Angels will have Parker Bridwell toeing the rubber in this one. He is young enough to be Colon’s soon and the 25-year old is making his first ever major league start. In limited MLB action in the 2016 season and in spring training of 2016 and 2017 Bridwell has not fared too well against major league hitters and the Braves have averaged 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. The Angels haven’t scored well in their last 2 games but previously they had scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 12 games and certainly facing Colon is likely to bring out the best in them in this match-up! The over is 7-2 in Colon’s last 9 starts. The over is 23-11 in Braves night games and 6-1 in their inter-league games this season. Angels inter-league games have also gone 5-2 to the over this season. We see every reason to expect a wild one in Anaheim tonight!
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is the Marlins over the Phillies.
It is not pretty if you are a Phillies fan right now, as Monday's 4-1 loss to the Marlins drops the Phils to 6-23 their last 29 games played!
Have to play against them based on that fact alone.
Miami is gaining some wind in their sails, as the Marlins have won their last pair of games, and 5 of their last 8 games overall.
Justin Nicolino will get the ball for Miami, and he will be making just his third start of the year. Nicolino is 1-0 with a 2.74 ERA in 4 career appearances - 3 of them starts - against the Phillies.
Vincent Velasquez will go for Philly, and he is just 2-4 on the year, while his team is 3-6 when he makes the start this year.
Play against Philly until further notice.
2* MIAMI
Jack Brayman
My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I'm not going to list pitchers in this game.
The Snakes may be sending Robbie Ray to the hill, and he may be 3-1 with an 0.81 ERA and 43 strikeouts on the highway, but Arizona is playing terrible right now and won't do him any good from the plate.
Besides, Ray is 0-2 during his career against the Pirates with an 8.00 ERA in four starts. And that includes an 0-2 mark with a 5.73 ERA in two starts at PNC Park.
So you see - those notes cancel one another out.
Instead focus on this nugget: Arizona is the No. 1 hitting team at home with a .295 batting average, but is also has the fourth-worst road batting average in the bigs, at .222.
The Diamondbacks also rank dead last on the highway with just 86 runs scored.
I'll take the Pirates, who will feed off the city's energy after last night's win by the Pittsburgh Penguins, in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.
Take the Pirates.
1* PIRATES
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Memorial Day was the Over in the Braves-Angels contest in Anaheim, while my premium play was the Underdog Shocker on the San Diego Padres.
Tonight's premium play is the total between the Blue Jays and Red, and my complimentary play is on the Padres over the Chicago Cubs, once again.
I told you I was confident in releasing the Friars at home, and they delivered against the Cubbies.
The Padres have started a homestand that will see them play 21 of 30 games in San Diego, starting with the reigning World Series champion Chicago Cubs. Yesterday was a nice confidence boost.
I don't care about the pitchers who are going - they don't mean a thing to me - and I don't care about the Cubs' power-packed lineup.
Fact is, there is something not right with the Cubbies right now, and it's glaring. Chicago was just swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and star Kris Bryant swept it under the rug as if it's no big deal.
"There are good years and bad years, and good weeks and bad weeks. We're off to an average start," Bryant said before this series began.
In the month of May, the Cubs have the second-worst batting average in baseball, at .223. Okay, so the Padres are the only team worse, with a .219 average, but they should feed off their confidence from beating the Mets in New York last week, and last night's win over the Cubs, as they're showing a little competitive drive.
I'll take my chances with the big home pup.
3* PADRES