Jeff Benton
My comp play for Tuesday will be to play the Cubs and the Padres to hold Under the total at Petco Park.
Chicago is having issues scoring runs these days, as they enter this game with just 6 runs scored over their last 4 games. They have played Under the total in 5 of their last 7 games overall.
San Diego is 4-0-1 Under the total in their last 5 games, and the Under in this series stands at 3-1-1 the past 5 meetings, and 5-3-1 overall the last 9 times these teams have hit the diamond.
Cubs pitcher Eddie Butler has been a bright spot in the rotation with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts, and 2 of those 3 have played Under the total.
San Diego gives Dinelson Lamet the ball for his second career start, and his debut was super with 5 innings of 3 hit ball worked against the Mets with just 1 run scored, and 8 batters whiffed. That game did hold Under the total as well.
Cubs-Padres play it low.
4* CUBS-SAN DIEGO UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles, as the American League East rivals get together in Oriole Park to continue their series.
And I want you listing the scheduled starters, because I think we're going to see Luis Severino best Chris Tillman in this game.
Severino comes in having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past four starts, and has allowed more than four runs this season just one time. He's pitching well for the pinstripes, and comes in after pitching eight shutout innings while striking out seven in his last outing, against the Royals.
The Orioles hand the ball to Tillman, who has struggled in his first four starts, lasting only 20.1 innings for the season. In his most recent start, against the Minnesota Twins, he could only go five innings, during which he was touched for nine hits and four runs.
I'll play the Bronx Bombers tonight.
4* YANKEES
Mark Franco
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Yankees -134
The Baltimore Orioles still aren't lighting up the scoreboard, but at least they snapped their seven-game losing streak. The Orioles will try to make it two wins in a row when they host the New York Yankees in the second of a three-game series on Tuesday.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Luis Severino (3-2, 3.11 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-1, 4.43)
Severino snapped a four-start winless streak with his best outing of the season on Wednesday, when he scattered four hits and one walk over eight scoreless innings while striking out seven against Kansas City. The Dominican Republic native has surrendered one or no runs in four of his last six outings and owns a total of 61 strikeouts in 55 innings.
Tillman is still trying to work himself into a rhythm after beginning the season on the disabled list and suffered his first loss Wednesday, allowing four runs and nine hits in five innings to Minnesota. The 2013 All-Star has logged a quality start in one of his four outings and has yet to record an out past the sixth inning. Tillman is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA in 19 career starts against New York.
Swish Insider
Seattle vs. Colorado
Pick: Seattle
When it comes to today's run line action, there are few picks our models like more than Seattle covering 1.5 with a 67.88% win probability, which is 8.9% greater than the implied cover probability at -151 odds. Now there's not as much value on this play at -151 as there is across the whole board of available MLB action, but taking the +1.5 at the odds still carries a positive expected value of 12.84%, which is actually extremely good for a run line dog between -150 and -200. For comparison's sake, no other +1.5 bet today gets a projected value greater than 7.00%, making this play a great combination of high probability and value.
Harry Bondi
COLORADO (-140) over Seattle
Tonight we will back the Rockies and starting pitcher, Tyler Anderson. He has pitched well of late going 2-1 with a 2.55 in his last four starts. Colorado has dropped 2 straight but own the majors best record and have won 6 of their last 9 while Seattle comes in winners of 2 straight but had lost 9 of their last 10 prior to that. We think tonight game reverts back to both teams earlier form and the Rockies roll!
Mike Rose
Dodgers at Cardinals
Play: Over 8
While Wacha has been considerably better at home ( 2.35 ERA ) than on the road ( 6.19 ERA ), his recent body of work is questionable at best. His only two quality starts came against weak-hitting San Francisco and Atlanta over his last four starts. The other two saw him get rocked for 14 hits ( 2 HR ) and 10 ER, and that’s simply preventing me from leaning towards backing the Cardinals to even this series up. That said, St. Louis has hit Maeda well collecting 12 hits and 5 ER in his 10.2 career innings pitched against them. With that, look for some runs to hit the board in the rematch which leads to another high scorer in this pitching matchup.
Carmine Bianco
Nationals at Giants
Play: Under 7.5
Today's Free Play is a totals selection and play on the Under in the Nationals/Giants game with a couple pitchers on the mound looking to get back on track. Gonzalez has gone winless this month but has a very respectable 3-1, 2.90 record while Samardzija keeps lowering a terrible early season ERA and may be ready to put up a good outing/number.
Tony Finn
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -145
Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.
Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.
Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.
Stephen Nover
Rangers +107
Despite Martin Perez not being his usual reliable self when pitching at home, the Rangers led the Rays, 7-5, going into the seventh inning in yesterday's Memorial Day game. This was fine by me since I had Texas and it was one of my biggest plays of the month.
Then the Rangers called on a clown named Tony Barnette to help get them out of a jam in the seventh inning. Barnette gave up a two-run double and three-run homer. The Rangers couldn't recover and lost, 10-8.
I want to back the Rangers in the worst way today especially considering Tampa Bay's bullpen - not good to start with - is shot having pitched 16 innings during the last two days. Closer Alex Colome isn't going to be available either having thrown three innings and 46 pitches during the past two days.
Texas is 8-1 in its last nine home games. Adrian Beltre finally is back in the lineup giving the Rangers tremendous power at the corners with Joey Gallo and his 16 homers moving to first base. Gallo showed he could field his new position well, too, Monday.
The Rays have played 10 hours and 14 minutes of baseball during the last two days after playing for close to 6 1/2 hours on Sunday going 15 innings.
I'm going to get involved with the Rangers here, especially as home 'dogs. But I can't give them a a major recommendation because they are starting Nick Martinez. Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Rangers, but Martinez takes a backseat to most starters, including Andriese.
Bob Balfe
White Sox -1.5 -105
I like the run line here because the White Sox hit pretty well against left handed starters and the bullpen has been pretty solid at home. Taking the White Sox to win the game outright does have a nice return to it, but there is more value in the extra run here tonight.