DAVE COKIN
RED SOX AT ORIOLES
PLAY: ORIOLES -119
Eduardo Rodriguez takes the big league mound for the first time this season tonight. The talented Red Sox lefty got in 28 innings of work at AAA Pawtucket in his rehab, and his most recent start was very solid. ERod will move into the starting slot formerly held by Clay Buchholz, with the veteran righty banished to the bullpen for at least the time being.
Kevin Gausman will throw for Baltimore tonight. Gausman is still looking for his first win of the season, as he’s had only two decisions to date and lost each of those. But that’s not to suggest Gausman has pitched poorly. Only two of his seven outings would fall into the lousy category, although one of those was his most recent effort as he got burned by the long ball against the Astros.
The Red Sox have a murderous offense, and Gausman is going to have his work cut out for him tonight. Boston also has momentum after dusting off the O’s on Monday behind another sterling performance by knuckleballing Steven Wright.
But I’m going against Rodriguez here. The info I’ve gotten is that the Red Sox are a little concerned about a dip in velocity from where he was last season. The thought is that this isn’t a major worry, and it’s more a case of the southpaw just needing to get stronger. I can’t disagree with the idea of bringing him back right now even if he’s not yet 100%. The Red Sox had to bump Buchholz and even if he’s not at peak level right now, Rodriguez is probably an upgrade over the struggling righty. But that’s not to say he’s in go with form at the major league level right away.
It’s not like the free plays I’ve been posting here have been any good of late. In fact, they’ve been absolutely terrible this month. So I can’t blame anyone for taking this play with a grain, or maybe make that a barrel of salt. The Red Sox are a machine with the bats these days, the Orioles haven’t been producing as they did earlier the season and Gausman hasn’t exactly been Mr. Lucky. But off the info on Rodriguez and maybe a feeling that Gausman is way overdue to catch a break, I’m going with the Orioles as small chalk tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Braves
Play: Giants -141
The Giants are 11-1 on the road off a road game and 4-0 on the road off a road favored loss by 2+ runs scoring 4 or less. Last nights loss sets up SF in a 42-14 league wide system that plays on road favorites off a road favored loss at -140 or higher by 2 or more runs. The Braves are 0-5 at home off a home win scoring 5 or more runs and 0-7 as a home dog in this range. SF is 60-26 the last few seasons in May. They have Peavy on the mound and he has won the last 3 vs Atlanta. Wisler for the Braves is 0-5 at home.
Stephen Nover
San Francisco vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +128
I'm not nominating the Braves to be a sudden playoff contender. I fully realize they are one of the worst teams in baseball. Adonis Garcia is their current clean-up hitter. That says enough about their 29th-ranked offense.
But a correction is due. The Braves' pitching is better than a 15-35 team and Atlanta has won three of its last four home games.
Atlanta beat San Francisco and Jeff Samardzija on Monday. The Braves are in good position to pull another upset today with a stronger pitching matchup going.
It's Jake Peavy versus Matt Wisler. Peavy turns 35 today. He has been pitching in the big leagues for 15 years. The Braves are starting Matt Wisler, who is beginning to live up to his vast potential. He has pitched much better than Peavy this season. So this line is inflated based on Peavy's past reputation and Wisler being below-the-radar.
Peavy is close to the end of his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.57 ERA in his last six starts. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 0-3 with a 10.00 ERA. San Francisco is 1-4 in Peavy's last five away starts.
Wisler, on the other hand, has a 2.25 ERA in 36 innings this month holding foes to a .212 batting average during this span. Denard Span is the only Giant who has ever faced Wisler. So Wisler has the element of surprise on his side.
The Giants could be down two starters, too. Outfielder Angel Pagan already is out and third baseman Matt Duffy left yesterday's game after being hit by a pitch.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -148
Edges: Cardinals: Mike Leake 5-2 with 3.20 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last seven overall team starts. Brewers: Wily Peralta 8.76 ERA and 2.07 WHIP at home this season. With Peralta and 0-5 in his last five team starts in this series, including 0-4 at home, and the Redbirds 12-4 their last sixteen games in this park, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Art Aronson
Tigers vs. Angels
Play: Over 8½
Anibal Sanchez (3-6, 6.04 ERA) was shelled for six runs off eight hits in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Sanchez has given up 40 home runs in his last 204.2 innings of work and has been particularly horrible on the road so far, 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA. The home side counters with Hector Santiago (3-3, 4.58) who was rocked for six runs off five hits and two walks over just two innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. So far Santiago has posted a career-worst 7.04 K/9 and 1.80 HR/9. And he has been better on the road (4.00 ERA) than at home (5.68). With these “gas cans” squaring off on Tuesday night, consider a second look at the OVER.
Matt Josephs
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9
Pat Corbin is 2-4 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 starts for Arizona. He's had it a bit rough as of late although traveling to Pittsburgh and St. Louis will do that to a starter. Corbin now faces a Houston team that was hitting .195 against left-handed starters before Monday night's win over Edwin Escobar. Corbin's slightly better so he should have more success. Lance McCullers continues to round into form as he continues to build strength after returning from injury. He has allowed just three runs and six hits in his last 11 innings with 17 strikeouts of the Orioles and Rangers. Arizona's got great offensive numbers, but really, how many consistent weapons do they have. The bullpens do concern me for both sides, but hopefully the starters do their work and we have less influence in relief. I'll take the under.
Frank Jordan
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +112
Tampa Bay has lost back to back games and eight of 10 as they continue their series in Kansas City against the first place Royals who have won four in a row and eight of 10. Kansas City is 17-7 at home which is best in the Majors while Tampa Bay is under .500 on the road at 11-12. Both starting pitchers come in under .500 as Tampa Bay has Smyly on the hill at 2-6 and Kansas City has 1-2 Gee going, but both have sub four ERAs. Gee has pitched better at home and is great under the lights with a 2.63 ERA in night games. Smyly pitches better on the road with both of his wins coming away from home and is pitching to a 3.16 ERA on the road. Look for a decent pitchers duel early, but this game will end up being a battle of the bullpens and we all know that the Royals have one of the best pens in the game and it will shine as the Royals pull it out 3-2 when the dust settles.
Jim Feist
Tigers at Angels
Pick: Over
This is a low total for an AL game with the DH and a good hitter's park. The Tigers are in town with a strong offense, No. 12 in baseball in runs scored and on-base percentage. Detroit s on a 22-10-2 run over the total, including 31-15-2 over on the road. Starter Anibal Sanchez (6.04 ERA) continues to throw poorly, walking 27 in 53+ innings. Sanchez has allowed 40 homers in his last 204.2 innings and the over is 33-14-5 in his last 52 starts overall. The Angels are 8-1 over the total at home against a right-handed starter. Hector Santiago is on the mound with a 4.58 ERA. He lasted just 2.1 innings, allowing six runs (five earned), five hits and two walks while striking out two in Wednesday's loss to the Rangers. Santiago's ERA has jumped from 3.42 to 4.58 over his last two starts. And the Over is 12-2 in Angels last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Sleepyj
Tampa Bay-117
I'll take a shot with the road dog Rays here...Smyly on the mound and he has been good this year...Not my favorite guy in the world, but I'll give him some credit here..Rays have the bats to get after Gee IMO..He isn;t anything special, but he shows signs of being good in the first half of the season..@nd half of the season I will fade him like I do almost always..KC has been hot, but I think this comes down to the to the pitchers..I'll grab the better guy IMO here.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -128
The St. Louis Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound today over the Milwaukee Brewers. They should be much bigger favorites as a result after topping the Brewers 6-0 behind a gem from Carlos Martinez yesterday.
Now the Cards come back with Mike Leake, who is 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Leake is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA in five road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts overall.
Wily Peralta has been awful all season. He is 3-5 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-2 with an 8.76 ERA and 2.067 WHIP in five home starts. Peralta is also 4-9 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 14 career starts against St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less this season. St. Louis is 43-19 in the last 62 meetings. The Brewers are 0-5 in Peralta's last five starts vs. St. Louis.
John Ryan
Pirates vs. Marlins
Play: Pirates +128
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-19 over the last 5 seasons good for 68% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (PITTSBURGH) with a rested bullpen that threw under 2 innings in each of the last 2 games against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a money winning 66-29 (+31.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 54-23 (+24.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons; 72-31 (+32.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Cole's team is 18-3 (+13.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Pirates are 9-1 while limiting Miami to 20 runs since Aug. 6, 2014, and 18-5 dating to July 20, 2012. The Pirates are trending up while Miami is trending down. Cole's team's record is 3-1 (+1.9 units) when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 0.949. Cole is pitching well of late, winning three of his last four starts behind a 1.04 ERA. The righty has given up 26 hits in 26 innings over that stretch but has held opponents to four runs - three earned.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -117
The Baltimore Orioles want revenge from a 2-7 loss to the Red Sox in Game 1 Monday that was their sixth loss in eight games. Look for them to bounce back behind Kevin Gausman, who sports a 3.24 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 7 starts this season. Gausman has been at his best at home with a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 3 starts. Eduardo Rodriquez makes his season debut for the Red Sox. Rodriquez has never beaten the Orioles, going 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. Gausman is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Boston.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals -114
Washington is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Phillies on Tuesday. The Nationals have built up some momentum with back-to-back wins, while Philadelphia has lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. Not only is Washington playing the better baseball at the moment, but I like the pitching matchup in this one.
The Nationals will send out Joe Ross, who has a 2.68 ERA (15th best in MLB) in 9 starts. Ross has been even better than that when he takes the mound on the road, as his ERA in 5 road starts is just 1.93. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has a respectable 3.14 ERA in 10 starts, but he's struggled to pitch well at home, where he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in 4 starts. Earlier this season, Nola gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings at home against Washington, while Ross allowed just 3 hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings in an earlier start at Philadelphia.
Washington is 24-9 in their last 33 when they come in having stranded 5 or less runners in 2 straight games and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Nationals are also 6-1 in their last 7 games played in Philadelphia.
Bill Biles
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +106
If the Phillies want to win a game in this series vs Washington it might have to be this one. Philly sends out their ace Aaron Nola to try to get the Phillies back on track after losing 4 straight. The Phillies need to win this one if they want to stay above 500. Look for Nola to pitch well here.
Jesse Schule
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
Cincinnati won Game 1 of this series by a score of 11-8, but I like Colorado's chances of evening the score with a win in Game 2.
Jon Moscot will toe the slab for Cincinnati, and he's coming off a shoulder injury. Moscot (0-2, 4.02 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and four walks over just five innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. His nine walks in three starts are three more than his six strikeouts, and a rate like that could spell disaster in a hitter's park in Colorado.
The Rockies hand the ball to Jon Gray, who has won two of his last three starts. Gray (2-2, 5.95 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on five hits and three walks over 7 1/3 innings in a win over Boston his last time out. He struck out eight, allowing a pair of runs on five hits in seven innings in a win over the Mets in his last home start.
The Reds bullpen is a complete disaster, ranking dead last in the majors with an ERA of 6.49.