Dave Cokin
Minnesota at Oakland
Play: Minnesota
Oakland hanging in despite lots of injuries, and the Twins are awful. But this is a big mound advantage for Minnesota. Tyler Duffey has backed up a bit in his last two starts, but he overwhelms Erik Surkamp on the matchup stats, and just the mere fact the oddsmaker actually made Minnesota the favorite here is fairly revealing. I'll hope the good version of Duffey we'd been seeing returns here, and I'll lay the short price with the Twins.
BUSTER SPORTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -120
Pitching in today's matchup is for the Tampa Bay Rays LH Drew Smyly (2-6, 3.92 ERA) and he goes up against the Royals RH Dillon Gee (1-2, 3.86) Smyly was one of the pitchers that we believed was going to do good things for the Rays in 2016. He did get off to a great start as he had an April ERA of 2.60 but he has suffered lack of run support all year which makes his record look worse than it is. Although his May has been terrible we believe we have found a spot here for Smyly to get back on the right path. Smyly is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA with a WHIP of 1.041 in 13 career appearances against the Royals. As for his opponent today Dillon Gee he started the season in the bullpen and pitched well. This will be his 4th start of the season but since coming from the bullpen his starts have not been so good. He is 1-2 with a ERA of 5.16. Although Tampa Bay hasn't had that much success with Kansas City in the past, the felling here is that the situation is right and they have the better pitching that should get them the win.
Goodfella
Houston TT Over 4.5
These Astros are playing their best ball of the season right now. Finally starting to turn around their very dissapointing start to the season. They face a SP who really has been smacked around when taking the ball in his home ballpark. Corbin has been hit hard at home, sporting an .ERA hovering right around 6.50 & winless in 4 starts. I expect this Astros team who are hitting the ball well right now to get to him eventually. Then we get that poor D-Backs bullpen after Corbin leaves. We also have the visiting club here, so we are assured of getting 9 innings to plate at least 5 runs. I really like the Astros chances of plating at least 5 runs in this spot and I am on their Team Total going OVER on Tuesday afternoon.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -106 over OAKLAND
Every start for Eric Surkamp evokes the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. If he does, we shouldn't. Metrics are interminably... boring, and there is nothing to suggest anything but more of them. Surkamp gives up more line drives (34%) than groundballs (29%). In 22 innings, he has walked 14 batters and struck out 12. In five starts he has a 1.95 WHIP and an xERA of 6.95. He starts here because the A's have few options.
The reason that this number is so low is because the Twins seldom win games and because Tyler Duffey has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts after a solid first four. That the 25-year-old began the year in Triple-A, despite pitching to a 3.10 ERA in 58 rookie innings for an organization not exactly flush with big league pitching talent is quite telling that his numbers are better than he is. That’s fine but Duffey throws strikes and comes in with a BB/K split of 8/30 in 37 innings. This is a good park for him to look good in too. Minnesota’s offense is vastly superior to the A’s and this wager is all about fading Surkamp. Nuff said.
ATLANTA +118 over San Fran
Matt Wisler has seven pure quality starts in nine tries this season and you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher that has more. Wisler struggled in his rookie season last year with a 1.46 WHIP, 4.71 ERA and an ugly BB/K split of 40/72 in 109 innings. However, he came into the majors with a great pedigree. His transition to the majors was a tough one but something has clicked and he’s a different pitcher this year. Mainly, Wisler is throwing his secondary stuff for strikes. He’s walked just 15 batters in 61 innings. He pitching deep into games lately with 36 innings pitched over his last five starts in which he’s walked eight and struck out 27. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season to the tune of an oppBA of .327 but this year they are batting a mere .196 against him. Wisler recorded a high number of strikeouts through much of his minor league career. He’s 30 starts into his major-league career and he’s now pitching with the same confidence he had in the minors. Big difference there.
Atlanta’s 15 wins is the fewest in the majors so its stock is still very low. We talked about the Braves a couple of times last week, suggesting that they are getting great at bats and that the runs will follow. Well, the Braves have scored 19 runs over their past four games. They are playing .500 ball over their past 10 games and now they’re a dog at home to Jake Peavy after recently defeating Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, Aaron Nola and Adam Morgan.
One of the premier arms in baseball at one time, Peavy has seen his numbers gradually decline thanks to a myriad of injuries and just plain old age. Peavy put together somewhat of a renaissance season in 2015, however, as his 3.58 ERA was his lowest mark since 2009 but it was all luck-fueled. Peavy's K-rate continues to dive, as it's now in a three-year decline. He brings a 1.78 WHIP into this start with just three quality starts in 10 tries. There's little in Peavy's current skill set to suggest a major step forward at this point, let alone a simple repeat of 2015's lucky line. His great control and home park will keep him in games, but that's trumped by a nosediving three straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA. Peavy is playable when taking back a decent price but he is completely unplayable laying a tag, especially on the road.
St. Louis -1½ +115 over MILWAUKEE
Over the past 20 games, Milwaukee has struck out 225 times. Nobody else is close to that mark and Mike Leake is sharp enough to know how to stay ahead of these fools and make them bat from behind in the count all night long. Leake is not going to dazzle anyone but he has elite control and an elite groundball rate. His ERA/xERA split of 3.90/3.85 is right in line with one another, confirming just how consistent Leake is and has been for years. Even if Leake is off his game here it should matter not because Wily Peralta is among the worst starters in the game.
Peralta is throwing harder this year at 94 MPH but his control is suffering because of it. Peralta has walked 10 batters over his last 27 innings and has now walked 22 in 52 frames. That’s not awful but it goes a bit deeper than that. You see, he’s falling behind just about every batter he faces. His first strike rate is just 54%, which means he has to come at guys with a fastball that is flat. His swing and miss rate is just 6%. Peralta cannot throw his off-speed stuff for strikes, so batters are just sitting on his fastball. He brings the worst WHIP (1.90) in baseball among starters with seven or more starts. He’s pitching with traffic every inning he’s out there and he’s tiring out quickly. He’s also been taken yard four times over his last 15.1 innings and has struck out just 35 batters all season long. A disciplined Cardinals team that is scoring a lot of runs lately figures to keep it going here.
COLORADO -1½ +105 over Cincinnati
Jonathan Gray is a former top prospect who started to fit that billing in May, in spite of a 4.40 ERA. Gray has been averaging 9.7 K’s/9 over his last five starts to go along with a 50% groundball rate. His 95.6-mph four-seam fastball was one of the best in the NL, and his 11.7 swing and miss rate confirms that he make batters look foolish out there several times each game. Gray’s 3.32 xERA is more than 2½ runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.95 but this park can do heavy damage to anyone. Gray allowed five hits and two runs in 7.1 innings at Fenway in his last start. He’s been taken yard just one time over his last seven starts. He threw a seven inning one-hitter in San Fran back on May 7th. He’s been outstanding in five of seven starts and the only reason his ERA is so high is because of one disaster against the Cardinals and one poor outing against the Pirates in his second start of the year.
The Rockies figure to put up a seriously crooked number here against Jon Moscot. Moscot was dealing with mild shoulder discomfort and was placed on the 15-day disabled list after his third start on April 27th. Moscot went 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in 12 innings for the Reds last year. A left (non-throwing) shoulder fracture ended his MLB debut in the 1st inning of his 3rd start. Moscot’s minor-league skills indicate he is not ready yet to contribute in the majors and may never be. The Reds have nothing to lose by seeing what they have in throwing minor-league pitchers into the fire. Moscot has walked nine batters and struck out six in 16 innings this year before he was injured. His batted balls profile of 33% groundballs, 37% line-drives and 30% fly-balls is one that cannot play out well anywhere, let alone at this unforgiving park. Moscot can’t throw strikes and with a 5% swing and miss rate, this has complete disaster for him written all over it.
Steve Janus
Rays vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed 3 or more errors, with a rested bullpen - threw 2 innings or less in each of the last 2 games. This system is 35-11 (76%) against the total since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Rangers +160
If you like value, you are going to have a hard time finding better value than the Rangers today. Texas is a big road dog against the Indians, but have every bit as good a chance of winning this game as Cleveland. The Rangers will send out Colby Lewis, who is 4-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 starts. Lewis has a 1.73 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. Indians will have their ace in Corey Kluber on the mound, but he's been hit or miss this season and is just 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 4 home starts.
Ray Monohan
New York / Toronto Under 8.5
The Yankees and Blue Jays meet once again and we get a repeat of what was a phenomenal pitching matchup last week. JA Happ and CC Sabathia were both dominant in a game that finished with just 4 runs.
Happ sits with an ERA of only 3.20 while Sabathia is below him at 2.83. Both pitchers have been stellar this year, but have really stepped lately as they continue to keep runners off base and avoid giving up the free passes.
Some trends to consider. Under is 5-1-1 in Happs last 7 starts vs. Yankees. Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto. Both teams have been Under teams this season. New York is 8-15-2 away from home to the Under while the Jays have gone 19-31-3 overall.
Given that and the pitching matchup here, the Under is worth a move.
Brandon Lee
Marlins -125
Miami is worth a look here as a small home favorite with their ace Jose Fernandez on the mound. Fernandez is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 10 starts and has been on fire of late with a 1.35 ERA and 0.9500 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his last 4 starts and during this stretch has struck out 43 hitters in 27 innings. Pittsburgh will have their ace in Gerrit Cole. He's pitched well of late, but has allowed 17 hits in his last 12 innings of work. Simply too good a price to pass up on Fernandez and the Marlins at home.
ASA
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox +110
Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez makes his first of this MLB season for the Red Sox but he was solid, to say the least, last season. In 21 starts, Rodriguez only allowed more than 3 earned runs 4 times. In the other 17 starts he allowed a total of only 22 earned runs. As you can see from those numbers his "average" start when he was on saw him allow an average of about 1 earned run! He is likely to give the Orioles trouble here just like he did last year at Camden Yards where he held them to just one earned run total in his two starts there. The O's have been struggling at the plate as yesterday's loss marked the 7th time in their last 11 games that they've been held to 3 runs or less. Yesterday's loss was Baltimore's 6th in their last 8 games. Boston has won 6 of their last 9 games and has averaged 6.7 runs per game during this solid stretch. The Red Sox potent lineup will see Kevin Gausman toeing the rubber for the Orioles this evening. Gausman remains winless on the season and has allowed 23 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 16 and 2/3 innings over his past three starts.
Ricky Tran
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox +110
Boston moved two games ahead of the Orioles in the AL East standings with a 7-2 victory yesterday. Their bats are hot and tonight they'll come up against Kevin gGauman who has yet to earn a win in seven starts this season. Gausman conceded four runs with three home runs in five innings of a 4-2 loss at Houston his last start. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez will make his first start since recovering from a knee injury in spring training. He surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 21 starts during his 2015 rookie campaign and should enter this contest poised to show he deserves a spot in the rotation this year too.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Minnesota had won four in a row going into yesterday, but that win streak came to a halt w/ a 3-2 loss here in Oakland. Off a loss this year, the Twins are just 7-27. They had been 4-19 on the road before sweeping Seattle over the weekend, so what I'm trying to say is that this is not a good team. Go against them here.
Oakland has the second worst run differential (-49) in the American League (Twins worst), but they've now won three straight, all here at home. Six of the team's 10 wins this month have come at home. Eric Surkamp has not pitched very well for the A's thus far, but he's only gotten one shot to work at home. He was okay in that spot, allowing just two runs in 4 2/3 IP. So, I'll call for him to have one of his better starts of the year tonight. Minnesota has scored the fewest runs in the entire American League.
Tyler Duffy has been terrible his last two starts for Minnesota. He's allowed 11 ER in 12 1/3 IP. It was a fortunate win (7-5 over Kansas City) his last time out. I don't anticipate him getting that same kind of support here as the A's have allowed just 11 runs total the last four games. Behind Duffy is a terrible bullpen, one that has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.448 WHIP on the road this year.
Harry Bondi
PHILADELPHIA +105 over Washington
Philadelphia starting pitcher Aaron Nola has been very impressive lately going 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Washington starter Joe Ross has been the complete opposite going 1-4 in his last 5 starts. Nola and his 2.86 ERA is the value play here and with reining NL MVP Bryce Harper a game time decision after getting hit by a pitch and leaving the game yesterday, the Phillies are the right side.
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is the Under in the Pirates-Marlins game.
Pittsburgh scored 10 runs yesterday as they sent the game Over the total all by themselves, but tonight the Bucs will be lucky to get 2 or 3 off of Jose Fernandez.
Fernandez enters tonight's start with a 7-2 mark, and a 2.82 ERA. Over his last 3 starts, Fernandez is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA! Obviously, he has been on his game.
Same can be said for Pittsburgh starter Gerrit Cole who started the season slow, but has been tough as nails of late, going 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts, as he has lowered his ERA on the season to 2.53.
Both pitchers have seen the Under come through in 2 of their last 3 starts, so look for the hurlers to mow them down tonight, as the Under is the play in this Pirates-Marlins Tuesday affair.
5* PITTSBURGH-MIAMI UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Royals to keep their winning ways going as they play the middle game of a three game set against the slumping Rays.
KC won yesterday to make it a 4 game winning streak, while TB absorbed their 8th loss in their last 10 games.
The Royals have taken over first place in their division and will get to face the 2-6 Drew Smyly.
Dillon Gee counters for Kansas City, and he has had his struggles at just 1-2 for his time in the Royals rotation.
I am guessing Tampa will be able to get some offense started against Gee, but with the way the Royals have been playing, I expect Kansas City to end the night with at least one more run then slumping Tampa Bay.
Play on Kansas City to extend to 5 straight wins.
3* KANSAS CITY
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 63-52 run with free picks: Chicago White Sox at N.Y. METS (-1.5, +130)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The New York Mets recovered from Sunday's debacle against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and won last night's series opened with the Chicago White Sox, 1-0. I like the defending National League champs to win tonight on the Run Line, as my free play. This is pure value no matter who is throwing, so even though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The White Sox's demise has been predicated on bad pitching. They went from being the hottest team in baseball, and in the same discussion as the Chicago Cubs for a World Series clash, to being swept in consecutive series. This team's pitching staff has been utterly disgusting, as it's posted an ERA higher than 6 and has allowed at least five runs in five of the seven during this current seven-game losing streak, with the bullpen at worse than 7.50. The Mets may score double digits tonight.
BOTTOM LINE is - This is a great spot for the Mets to get good, as they came into this series on a 2-3 slide that has seen them hit .172. Yet they're just one game back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East, and a respectable 15-10 at home on the year. I'm playing the Mets in this one as my freebie, and again, don't worry about who is pitching.
5* METS -1.5