Free Picks for Tuesday, October 10th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BLACKHAWKS AT CANADIENS
PLAY: BLACKHAWKS
My preseason assessment of the Canadiens was not positive. I can see the Habs struggling thanks to an anemic offense and a lack of physicality. So far, so good on that call as this team has not looked sharp out of the NHL starting gate.
Montreal might be catching the Blackhawks at the wrong time tonight. Chicago figures to arrive inboxed a nasty mood following a really lousy performance on Monday at Toronto. The Hawks were roundly outplayed by the Maple Leafs. But Chicago was still up 3-1 in the period, so not getting the two points as the Leafs rallied to win in overtime won’t sit well with this talented entry.
Note that if playing Chicago off an overtime game the prior night seems dicey, the data suggests it’s not for this outfit. The Blackhawks have a stellar 36-15 ledger off an OT game the prior night.
I’m also pleased with the fact Corey Crawford sat on Monday night, which means the Hawks #1 goalie will be ready for action tonight. Crawford has owned the Habs over the years and I sure have no problem backing him this evening.
No line on this game as I’m writing this. But with this being the second of back to backs for the visitors, the line is unlikely to be what I consider to be an obstacle. I’ll be looking to take Chicago in this game.
Joey Juice
When these 2 teams play, its almost always under. The pressure will cement that tonight. Don't tell me about game 2, that game was a stone-cold under until the 8th inning when 5 runs crossed.
When we look inside the numbers we see Under with a big advantage, Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a winning team, 14-4-4 last 22 when Nationals play a winning home team.
The Under is also 18-6-2 last 26 on road when Nationals face a righty pitcher.
With the Cubs, Under is 5-1 last 6 playoff games, under has gone 9-3 last 12 vs winning team, and under has gone 5-2 the last 7 "Game Four" scenarios.
Free Pick is under.
2* WASHINGTON-CUBS UNDER
Mike Lundin
Flyers vs. Predators
Play:Predators -146
The Nashville Predators have opened the season with back-to-back losses at Boston and Pittsburgh, but I think they'll record their fist W in their first home game of the season as they host the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday night. Note that Nashville was 24-9-8 home at Bridgestone Arena last season while Philadelphia was just 14-22-5 on the road.
The Flyers have split their first two games of the season, on the road at LA and Anaheim. This will mark the finale of a three-game road trip before heading home to host the Capitals on Oct 14. Philly's focus might be on that game and I'm not sure how much they care about this non-conference game.
Scott Rickenbach
Blues vs. Rangers
Play: Blues +119
When Mike Yeo took over the head coaching reins from Ken Hitchcock (fired on Feb 1st) last season, the Blues wrapped up the regular season by going 22-8-2 under Yeo. St Louis then lasted two rounds in the post-season and they've now begun this season with a perfect 3-0 start under Yeo. No one can argue that the players certainly seem to have responded well to the coaching change. Even though the Blues had to go to the shootout to get the win yesterday, they did lead the game 2-0 for much of the way. In fact, St Louis has truly been strong all season long except for the 3rd period in games. Certainly they'll be working to hard to fix that problem of allowing too many late goals. Though back-up Carter Hutton gets the start here, he defeated the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist when he faced them last season. He has good overall numbers and is a solid #2 goalie. As for the fact that this is a back to back spot, note that the Blues have actually won 18 of 24 the past two seasons when they are playing the 2nd game of a 2 in 2 situation. It also helps that yesterday's game was an early game. The Blues have won 46 of their last 80 against teams with a losing record while the Rangers have lost 49 of 90 against teams with a winning record.
Ben Burns
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes
Play: Hurricanes -122
These teams faced each other four times from January 10th through March 30th, splitting the four meetings. In all four cases, the home team won. The Canes are already 1-0 at home; the Jackets are already 0-1 on the road. The Canes are now 17-12 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, the Jackets were just 23-37 (-11.7) on the road, when the O/U line was 5.5. With expectations high in Raleigh this season, this price could easily be a little higher.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville -145
The Nashville Predators will host the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, looking for their first win of the new season (Preds are 0-2). As for the Flyers, they've had to open the season with a four-game road trip but so far, have gone 2-1.
The Flyers have missed the playoffs in three of the last five years and haven't advanced past the first round of the postseason since 2012. The Flyers are a team in transition and may be looking for Nolan Patrick to make an immediate impact. The Flyers selected the center No. 2 overall, as a 16-year-old two seasons ago, Patrick scored 41 goals and a team-high 61 assists for Brandon of the Western Hockey League. He managed to record 20 goals and 26 assists in 33 games in an injury-shortened 2016-17 campaign and then recorded three assists in six preseason games. The Flyers need for Claude Giroux to turn things around. The center led Philadelphia with 86 points in 2013-1 but his scoring has declined in each of the next three seasons. Despite playing all 82 games, Giroux scored only 58 points last season, and his 14 goals were the fewest in a full season since 2009-10. Also a key will be goaltender Brian Elliott. The Flyers have been looking for an elite goaltender for years (the club was tied for 26th in save percentage at .901 last season) and they think Elliott is the answer. Elliott got off to a slow start by going 3-9-1 with a 3.31 goal-against average over the first two months of the campaign last season with Calgary but.he finished 26-18-3 with a 2.55 GAA and two shutouts, which was enough for the Flyers to give the 32-year-old a two-year deal.Neuvirth was in goal for Philly's 2-0 loss at the LA Kings with Elliott going 2-0 with a 2.49 GAA. He's expected to play again, tonight. Patrick has just one point (an assist) in three games but Wayne Simmonds tallied a hat trick Wednesday night in a 5-3, season-opening win at San Jose, then scored the game-winner Saturday night in overtime for a 3-2 victory over Anaheim, giving him a team-leading four goals.
Nashville did little in last year's regular season to make anyone think the Preds would be a Stanley Cup contender but they opened the playoffs with an improbable four-game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Western Conference points leader. Nashville then beat St. Louis and Anaheim in six-games series, before taking the Pittsburgh Penguins to six games in the Finals. The Predators lost James Neal to Las Vegas in the expansion draft and captain Mike Fisher to retirement. However, Nashville did add Nick Bonino, winner of consecutive Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh, to fortify the center position before Fisher retired. Winger Scott Hartnell was also signed from the Columbus Blue Jackets to add depth scoring and another veteran presence in the locker room. Otherwise, the Predators are sticking with the young core that got them to Game 6 of the Finals last spring.
As noted, the season is off to a bad start for Nashville and that's an understatement. Nashville has not had a lead at any point in its first two games, losing 4-3 at Boston and then 4-0 at Pittsburgh. That rematch of the Stanley Cup Finals particularly hurts, as it marks the third straight game the Preds have been shut out by the Pens (lost Game 5 and Game 6 by scores of 6-0 and 2-0, respectively!). Adding insult to injury, Pittsburgh entered Saturday's game having allowed 15 goals in its first two games of the season, before shutting out the Preds. All this said, it's just TWO games into the season. The home crowd and the banner raising should be all the motivation Nashville needs to beat a Phildelphia team playing a fourth road game in seven nights. Take the Preds.
Jim Feist
Phoenix at Vegas
Pick: Under 5.5
Marc-Andre Fluery playing great so far for the Vegas Knights, turning away 45 shots in their first ever win over Dallas, 2-1. Then Fluery did it again with a win over the Coyotes at Arizona, 2-1 in OT. Now the Coyotes play their first ever home game and you know Fluery and teh Knights will be emotion for this one. I like the UNDER here as Fluery shuts down the Coyotes again.
Scott Rickenbach
Blue Jackets at Hurricanes
Play: Blue Jackets +115
The Hurricanes got a 5-4 win in the shootout versus the Wild on Saturday. So far this season that is the only game the Canes and I believe that makes them vulnerable here. Certainly Carolina's Scott Darling did not impress between the pipes and the Hurricanes now face a very hungry Blue Jackets team that is playing their 3rd game of the season already. Columbus is hungry because they have had to wait since Saturday to now get some redemption for an ugly 5-1 loss at Chicago. Now, back in divisional action, look for the Blue Jackets to respond. Keep in mind, the Jackets dominated in their season opener versus the Islanders. Now, off of a loss in non-conference action, note that Columbus has won 33 of 55 (+$14,600) when off of a game against a Western Conference opponent. The Blue Jackets will be much more focused and "ready to grind" as they take on a divisional opponent tonight. The Hurricanes are also off of a non-conference game but they've lost 35 of 56 (-$16,800) when off of a game against a Western Conference foe. Also, the Canes have lost 36 of 60 (-$13,000) in divisional action. I like having a quality team off of an ugly effort! Give me the road dog in this one!
Andre Ramirez
Red Wings +156
Red Wings’ center Martin Hanzal is expected back in the lineup after exiting this past Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury. Goalie Jimmy Howard has stopped 74 of 77 shots and will get the start again on Tuesday. Clearly the Stars are in for another tough test having already started its season 0-2. Detroit is 4-0 in its last four against the Western Conference, 4-1 in its last five against the Central Division, and 20-7 in its last 27 on the road against opponents with home winning percentages under .400. The Stars are 2-5 in their last seven against opponents with winning percentages over .600, 0-4 in their last four against the Atlantic Division, 4-11 in the last 15 meetings between the two teams, and 1-7 in their last eight at home against the Red Wings.
Stephen Nover
Blackhawks vs. Canadiens
Play: Blackhawks +120
The Blackhawks have struggled on the road so the oddsmaker has made them a 'dog against the Canadiens.
I believe that's a mistake. Chicago definitely is the superior team. The Canadiens haven't been a good home club - 5-13 in their last 18 home contests - and are struggling offensively.
This marks Montreal's first home game after a three-game road trip to open the season. Often it works against a team returning home in their first game following being gone for an extended trip.
The Canadiens have managed just one goal at even strength and four goals all together. Their last game was a 2-0 loss to the Rangers on Sunday. The Rangers had given up 12 goals in their previous two games.
By contrast, the Blackhawks are the second-highest goal scoring team in the NHL behind Toronto. The Blackhawks are averaging six goals in their three games. The Blackhawks entered this season very emotional about their embarrassing playoff exit last season. They opened up blasting the defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Penguins, 10-1, and followed that up with a 5-1 victory against the Blue Jackets.
But then last night the Blackhawks blew a two-goal lead in the third period and lost, 4-3 in overtime, to Toronto. That was their opening road game. I anticipate the Blackhawks to be fired-up following that stinging defeat.
The Canadiens heavily rely on goalie Carey Price. He wasn't as dominant last season, though, as he's been in the past. Chicago has an excellent goalie, too, Corey Crawford. And it's Crawford who is hotter than Price right now with a save percentage of .968 compared to Price's .905. Crawford always gets pumped when he plays in Montral since that's his hometown.
Price had an off-night this past Saturday giving up four goals on 14 shots to the Capitals in one period before being pulled. Right now I trust Crawford more.
The Blackhawks hold a major edge on offense. They've beaten the Canadiens seven consecutive times because of it, including winning during their last three visits to Montreal.
This is a third-in-four nights scenario for the Blackhawks. But they've been up to task before in this situation winning eight of the past nine times in that spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
VANCOUVER -105 over Ottawa
OT included. Ottawa is 0-2 after two games but both losses were in OT so they could just as easily be 2-0. The Sens lost to Washington 5-4 before losing to Detroit 2-1. However, the Sens have not been sharp. They’ve spent more time in their own end than in their opponent’s end have surrendered more high quality chances than they’ve created. This is a top heavy, unbalanced squad with a makeshift defense until Erik Karlsson and Johnny Oduya return. The general consensus around hockey people is that the Sens overachieved last year and perhaps that’s true but one thing we know for sure is that their stock is higher than Vancouver’s, which is the basis for this play.
Every publication and NHL season preview will tell you the exact same thing in regards to the Canucks. They are projected to fight with Vegas and the Avs for the worst record in hockey but we’re not as convinced as guys like Bob McKenzie, who watch their twitter feed all day and report the same thing as everyone else. We watch the games and what jumps out to us is that the Canucks have brought in a lot of fresh talent, especially up front. Having trained and implored his new team to play faster, Vancouver Canuck’s new head coach Travis Green is a guy we’re very impressed with. First, Daniel and Henrik’s minutes were way down in their opening game so Green is not going to overwork the twins or expect them to carry this team any longer. That means more minutes for guys like Bo Horvat, Markus Granlund, Sven Baertschi, Brandon Sutter and others. We’re not sure this market is aware of just how good Horvat is. Green’s second brilliant move was sitting 20-year-old wonder boy, Brock Boeser, who had four goals in a nine-game NHL cameo at the end of last season and then led Vancouver in pre-season scoring. That game was the opening Saturday for Hockey Night in Canada and the Oilers/Canucks were the featured game. Boeser sat and watched from the press box and we’re pretty sure he’s anxious to get in there tonight. Against the Canucks, who are supposed to finish at the opposite end of the standings than the Oilers, Connor McDavid was held to two shots and no points in 24:38.
That’s just one game but it set a tone for the Canucks. They have read and heard about how bad they are so right away Green has used that as motivation and he’s also put a chip on the shoulders of every player in the Canucks dressing room. Jacob Markstrom was sharp in goal against Edmonton and he’ll take a step down in class tonight. So will the Canucks and we expect them to be 2-0 after this one.
Philadelphia +122 over NASHVILLE
OT included. Lots of things are in play here. First, the 0-2 Predators will do something they have never done, which is hoist a banner to the rafters of Bridgestone Arena before the game tonight in a brief, pre-game ceremony celebrating its Western Conference championship. That only motivates the visitor more. Secondly, the Preds will once again go with goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is worse this year than last year and has allowed eight goals so far. Both Pittsburgh and Boston penetrated the Nashville blue-line with relative ease. Additionally, the Predators gave away the puck 14 times in two games. Overall, 13 of the 20 skaters on the roster have more starts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.
The Predators' season-opening trip to Boston and Pittsburgh resulted in them losing both games by a combined score of 8-3 and never owning a lead. Incidentally, Pittsburgh had just lost 10-1 to Chicago and Boston was beaten at home by Colorado yesterday.
Bridgestone Arena has been one of the more difficult venues for visitors to win at but we’re not going to allow that to influence us here when the underdog is so live. Almost every Predator had a career year last year and they barely snuck into the playoffs as a #8 seed before catching lightning in a bottle. They’ll enter this game trying to pick up that elusive first win and they’ll also enter it with inferior goaltending.
After a three-game West-Coast trip to San Jose, Los Angeles and Anaheim, the Flyers are 2-1 and could easily be 3-0. They have looked sharp and well prepped in all three games and we don’t see them letting up here. Philadelphia narrowly missed the playoffs last year after a late rally that just fell short. The previous season they made a furious rally in the final month to just sneak into the playoffs. It would appear that the Flyers have learned a valuable lesson, that being that two points in October are just as value as two points in May. There is an emphasis to a strong start and the Flyers have gotten the message. Philadelphia also has a different look to them this year. The Flyers’ overall team speed is much better than last season and they have upgraded in several areas which includes defense and depth. If you haven’t watched the Flyers play yet, pay attention to its fourth line. Thanks to its quickness and tenacity, the fourth line — Scott Laughton centering Taylor Leier and Michael Raffl — has created numerous scoring chances in the first three games.
The balanced lines give the Flyers better matchups than in the past. Last year’s fourth line, composed of center Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, winger Chris Vande Velde and a variety of other wingers and it was not good. This year, Philly is constantly sending out fresh bodies. The fourth line is getting significant playing time and all four lines are creating. It’s a massive difference from sending out three lines that are playing extra minutes because the fourth line was a liability. This is a dangerous dog that the market hasn’t caught up to yet and they are absolutely worth a bet here.
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