Free Picks for Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Eric Schroeder
Once a week veteran handicapper Chris Jordan and I meet at Green Valley Station for lunch or dinner, and talk about sports, business, bad beats, money... you get the drift, right? Sunday night the two of us sat down while watching the New England Patriots to talk World Series.
Chris has always been a mentor to me in this business, and so I wanted to get an idea his philosophy and approach toward the Fall Classic, and lo and behold I was a little taken back when I heard his choice for the World Series.
So, when I told him I thought the Houston Astros pitching staff would be much better, bought him a shot of Patron, and told him it would be over in six games - he suggested an online challenge. Dueling "columns" if you will, for our followers, as to who will win the World Series.
So before you read Chris' obviously ridiculous reasons below, why the Los Angeles Dodgers will win - which they won't - let me give you some real reasons why the Astros will become the 2017 World Series Champions.
Game 1 motivation ... did you know the Astros have never won a Series game? They were swept by the Chicago White Sox in 2005, in their only previous appearance. So I think one of the most important things will be getting to Clayton Kershaw in the first game and stealing the momentum and homefield edge immediately. Houston starter Dallas Keuchel is a stellar 1.78 ERA in his five career postseason starts and just went 1-1 in the Astros’ ALCS series victory over the Yankees. The 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner is set to make his first World Series start, and he knows how important this game will be.
Speaking of Kershaw ... Dodgers lovers who think they're going to get quality wins from their beloved ace should think again. Kershaw is 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 postseason games. And while I know he's gone 2-0 this October, I don't think the lefty ace with three Cy Young Awards will look like the dominant regular-season pitcher he is. The lineup I'm about to mention, it's pretty good.
Power-packed lineup ... Jose Altuve (.400, 5 homers), Yuli Gurriel (.366) and Carlos Correa (9 RBIs) did well in the playoffs. And there is a due theory with Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, who all hit under .200 the first two rounds. Houston was the best offense all season, and if there is one thing it can do well, it's get to good pitching. Houston struggled in the first few games against the Yankees, but it came alive when it mattered.
Emotional edge ... It's been quite a fall for several cities, including Miami, Las Vegas and Houston. From hurricanes to a shooting, these are cities that are looking for revival. Vegas is seeing it with its hockey team, and H-town is looking for a World Series crown. And behind Verlander's arm, plus Dallas Keuchel, plus Charlie Morton, plus Lance McCullers Jr... I think a call to arms will be huge, as each starter will remember this is more than a Series win for the organization, it's for a city needing some love.
Your Series bet is on the Houston Astros, as they're going to steal this from Los Angeles in five games.
5* ASTROS SERIES
Ben Burns
Edmonton at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh
The defending champs check in with a 5-4 overall record. Two of their losses have come by identical 5-4 margins. The other two losses have been "ugly." They lost 10-1 at Chicago, on 10/5. More recently, in their last game, the Pens lost 7-1 at Tampa. Off the earlier "ugly" loss, the Pens responded with their best effort, a 4-0 victory over Nashville, the team they beat in the Stanley Cup Finals. Now, the Pens take on Edmonton, in what some are billing as a possible preview of this year's Stanley Cup matchup. Including their victory over the Preds, the Pens are a dominating 34-12 (+20.2) their past 46, after losing their previous game by two or more goals. Don't be surprised when they bounce back with another victory on Tuesday. Consider Pittsburgh
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play:Over 7
You look at the two Game 1 starters in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel and expect a pitcher's duel, but I think we are going to see some offense here. This isn't your typical October night in LA. A heat wave has hit the area and temps are going to be 90+ when the game starts. The ball is going to travel a lot more than you would expect and these are two loaded lineups that have both hit left-handed starting well. Keep in mind the Dodgers scored 4 or more in 4 of their 5 games vs a very good Cubs rotation and Houston had 4 or more in 3 of the last 4 vs the Yankees. OVER is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 road games vs a left-handed starter and 8-3-1 in their last 12 interleague road games. OVER is 5-1-1 in the Dodgers last 7 home games and 6-2 in Kershaw's last 8 starts after a game where they scored 5 or more runs.
Scott Rickenbach
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7
The Dodgers have scored 25 runs in the last 3 games that Clayton Kershaw has started. Not surprisingly, none of the three games resulted in an under as the Dodgers left-hander has been getting plenty of run support. The Astros Dallas Keuchel gave up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his start last week versus the Yankees. The over is 49-29 in Houston's road games this season. The weather is hot and dry in LA for this one so the ball will carry better than usual off of the bats.
Jimmy Boyd
Knicks vs. Celtics
Play: Under 208
The books have set the total too high for these Atlantic Division rivals on Tuesday. This Knicks offense is not any good. They scored 107 in their home opener against Detroit in their last game, but also blew a 21-point lead, as they totaled just 43 points in the final 2 quarters. They only had 84 for the game in their season opener at OKC.
Boston should have no problem keeping the Knicks in check here and that should this going well under the mark. The Celtics just held the 76ers to 92 on the road in their last game. The other key here is the Boston offense is out of sync. The Celtics have shot under 43% in each of their first 3 games. They lost a huge offensive piece in Gordon Hayward in their opener, are still waiting for Marcus Morris to return from injury and may be without Marcus Smart tonight (questionable).
Even if the Celtics find their shot against a bad Knicks defense, I still think this stays well UNDER the mark set here by the books. UNDER is 22-9 in New York's last 31 off a loss by 6 points or less, and 12-3-1 in the Knicks last 16 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.
Teddy Davis
Brooklyn at Orlando
Play: Under 230
These two teams already met last week with a total off 226 and it went over by 1 point. I think now since they have some familiarity with one another that it's safe to say this total will go under tonight.
In the first meeting these two combined to hit 27 3's for the game. I don't think either team is a great outside shooting team it just happened then which is creating some value here tonight.
I also think the Magic are in a tough spot here coming off a Cavs win even though they do have the revenge angle. Both teams shot 50% for the game last time out and these numbers should come down.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Vegas
Pick: Over 6
One of the reasons the Vegas Golden Knights are off to a great start is because of goaltending. Marc-Andre Fluery is the face of this club and is now out with a concussion. His replacent, Malcolm Subban was also playing great until his lower body injury that will keep him out for weeks. Now, the Knights have to bring up someone from their minor league Chicago team to start in the pipes, Oscar Dansk. Dansk had a 5.57 goals against averge in his one start for the Chicago Wolves this year. I'm not sure how the Knights can continue their surge without their top two goalies. The Chicago Blackhawks have the 7th best scoring offense in the NHL and tonight the pickings should be easy.
Micah Roberts
Dodgers -170
So happy Clayton Kershaw is finally starting a World Series game. Why wouldn't he be up for the moment he's been waiting for his entire life? I expect him to be the same dominant starter we've seen all season. The Dodgers went 26-4 behind him this season, but it's not often I get to lay such a cheap price on him. The best starter with the best bullpen has been an almost unbeatable combo. Dodgers take Game 1.
Kenny White
Astros +155
As mentioned in my total writeup, Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average since his return from the DL. His ERA is 3.53 with 11 home runs allowed in 51 innings. Kershaw has been just 15 cents better than the average pitcher over those 9 outings with his best start coming against the San Francisco Giants. Kershaw has struggled to get to the 7th inning against playoff-caliber teams. Even though this is a bet against Kershaw, I do like the way Dallas Keuchel is pitching. For the season and over his last five away starts, he has been 40 cents better than the average pitcher on the road. Corey Seager returns for the Dodgers, but it has been two weeks since he has seen live pitching. Play on Houston as a big underdog.
Astros / Dodgers Over 7
The temperature is going to be in the mid 80's at first pitch with very little humidity. With this kind of weather, the ball will carry very well instead of just hanging up in the thick night air. Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average over his last nine starts since returning from the DL. In 51 innings he has allowed 47 hits, 20 earned runs and 11 home runs. WOW! Eleven home runs in 51 innings for an ERA of 3.53. Dallas Keuchel was far better at home than on the road; his batting average against was .187 at home and .245 away. Even his two playoff home starts were far better than his away start at Yankee Stadium. Now let's get to the hitters. Plain and simple, both teams hit lefties better than righties. Go Over at this great price.
Larry Hartstein
Dodgers -170
The Astros have won one of their last seven games at Dodger Stadium and I see that trend continuing, at least for Game 1. Dallas Keuchel has been somewhat hittable on the road down the stretch. I'll back Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who are getting SS Corey Seager back.
Brad Diamond
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights
Play: Blackhawks -162
Here the Knights (6-1) are at home again versus the 5-2 Blackhawks who show off two days rest. Chicago will have goalie Crawford (1.86, .945) in the nets. The superlative stopper has allowed two or fewer goals in 5-of-7 starts. Overall, the visiting Chicago club is 22-10 off a win. Vegas loaded with experience at key positions will once again be changing goalies because of the injury bug. Fleury the leader is out with a concussion. With that ice inconsistency, we'll take a shot with the more talented Blackhawks to survive a challenging encounter in this special building.
Chris Jordan
The other day I get a text message from the kid, Eric Schroeder, requesting we meet for our weekly chat ASAP because he wants to discuss the World Series. I, of course, reply with: #ThisTeam and add a bitmoji that has me in Dodgers gear.
I can't say what his reply was, but there were more four-letter words exchanged than I've seen from him since I got him aboard with the site last year. He's a cute kid, got a beautiful girl who dances in a production show on the Strip and in just one year being on this site, has purchased a beautiful home in Anthem Hills.
But I had to remind him who Daddy is! He needed to be put into his place, and reminded the difference between Mentor and Mentee.
Don't let him fool you with his blabbering, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to win the World Series - end of story.
You see, while he is enamored by the home record, the pitching staff and the offense, I reminded him Sunday night, while sipping a little tequila at Green Valley Station, about his pick on the Astros, who may be in the Fall Classic, but are there by default thanks to a lack of competition.
Come on, you really think the way the Astros played in the Bronx, they would have escaped the clutches of the Cleveland Indians had the Tribe been there? I think not. The Yankees caught the Tribe off guard, and really, at time, outplayed Houston.
Statistics reveal a lot, and the Astros are hitting just .247 in the postseason, after an abysmal .187 against the New York Yankees in the ALCS. They hit just four home runs in that series, and had no choice but to depend on their pitching. I'm not impressed. That lineup now gets to face Los Angeles' one-two punch - Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish - and the best bullpen in the bigs.
Los Angeles has the best ERA of all playoff teams, with a 2.28 clip. The entire staff has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 81-to-12, and the relievers have prodced an ERA of 0.94 during the playoffs. Of the 14 home runs the Dodgers staff has allowed, their bullpen has given up just one. The relievers strikeout-to-walk ratio is an astounding 32-to-2, while producing a 3-0 record.
Houston has great arms, I know this. Both starting rotations are pretty much even on paper. But if the Dodgers' impressive lineup that beat up the Cubs gets into the Astros' bullpen, it's going to be ugly. Houston's relievers have a 5.03 ERA in the postseason, having allowed 31 hits, 19 earned runs and eight home runs.
And let's talk about my guy Kershaw, who is 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 postseason games. How about the fact he is 2-0 this October, and we're talking about a guy who owns three Cy Young Awards, five ERA crowns and seven All-Star selections. This is long overdue for him, and he isn't about to tank at home.
Finally, I love Dave Roberts, and give him the edge in the managerial department. I love his decision-making. If you listen to his press conferences and interviews, you can feel the passion he has for HIS PLAYERS. Not for him, not for the organization - for his players. And don't get me wrong, he has pride, and he cares about the team as a whole. But he is a players' manager.
The second-year manager, who has two N.L. West crowns under his belt, has been extremely creative with the big-budget Dodgers, and profoundly strategic to get maximum value from each and every person on the roster. And most of all, what his players appreciate most, is Roberts gives his guys consistency with decision-making. There are no surprises with him, as he never wavers - win or lose. And that provides confidence in his players.
Behind an unpredictable and explosive lineup, the 1-2 pitching punch and a stifling bullpen, the Dodgers will win the World Series in Game 6 at Chavez Ravine.
5* DODGERS SERIES
Bruce Marshall
Knicks vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -7.5
Not the start to the season that they were envisioning in Boston, losing first two out of the chute as well as key offseason FA addition Gordon Hayward, who lasted only a few minutes on opening night at Cleveland before breaking his ankle, likely to be lost for the season. Fortunately for Celtics, they get a chance to get well vs. a Knicks side they won and covered three of four against a season ago. Knicks seem deluded in their determination to set a faster tempo sans Carmelo, not to mention no longer worrying about now-departed Phil Jackson looking over HC Jeff Hornacek’s shoulder and expecting the Knicks to master the triangle. Hornacek wants to run, but even minus Hayward, Boston should be able to capitalize with other new addition Kyrie Irving relishing a chance to get up and down the court.
Rob Vinciletti
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers
Home teams on the blind in game 1 of the world series are a solid 65-43. LA just took down the defending champs without arguably their best player and they have Kershaw going tonight. In his home starts the Dodgers are 14-2 and he has a 2.82 home Era and a 2.38 career Era vs Houston. The Dodgers spell him with a home bullpen Era that is 2.87. LA is 9-1 this season at home vs N.L. Teams. Houston is off an emotional game 7 home win over NYY. They have Keuchel going and he has a 3.77 road Era which is good but nearly a full run higher than Kershaw home Era. The Astros are 0-5 as a road dog from +125 to +175 and have lost 7 of the last 8 as a post season road dog. This season they are 0-3 as a road dog vs a lefty and scored just 2 runs in those 3 games. They follow Keuchel with a road bullpen Era that is nearly 5. LA has won 6 of the last 7 at home vs Houston. Look for the Dodgers to take the opener.