Ray Monohan
Winnipeg at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -135
The Wild open at a nice price on Tuesday and are worthy of a small move here.
Minnesota has played much better lately, winning back to back games and looking like the team they are expected to be this season.
The Wild are leaning on this impressive offense, that carried them so much last season to success. Minnesota is putting up 3.33 goals per game and this team is at their best when they play with pace.
This is the perfect matchup for them as they take on a Jets team that is one of the worst defensive teams.
Some trends to note. Wild are 10-3 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.Wild are 17-6 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Given the matchup against this defense, this price is nice.
Teddy Davis
Phoenix at Brooklyn
Play: Under 231
I realize both teams can score the ball here, but this total is just set too high. This is the highest total either team has had so far this season.
For the Suns this will be their 3rd road game and even though they like to get out and run they are averaging below 100 points per game on the road. The Nets right now even though putting up points their only shooting right at 40% for their last 4 games. In order for both teams to get above 231 you have to make a high percentage.
Scott Rickenbach
Coyotes vs. Red Wings
Play: Over 6
The Coyotes gave up 2 goals in the final minute yesterday to result in overtime as Arizona hung on for a 4-3 win. That said, last night's game arguably should not have gone over the total. However, I am coming right back with an Arizona OVER tonight on Tuesday as the fact is the Coyotes goaltending situation continues to be an issue. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, Arizona's play between the pipes has been a major issue and, after final getting a solid start from Scott Wedgewood last night (at least for the first 59 minutes), a back to back situation for the Coyotes will not help matters. Arizona is 9-2-1 to the over this season. Detroit brings an "under streak" of 4 games into this one but the Red Wings also have lost 6 of their last 7 games! That said, the emphasis for Detroit is on getting improved play and consistency from all 4 lines. Their forwards just haven't been getting the job done and that is why the Red Wings have averaged only 2 goals per game in their last 7 games. Detroit will happily take advantage of a Coyotes team that just won their first game of the season last night and simply can't keep the puck out of their own net so far this season. The Red Wings have scored 9 goals in their last two match-ups with Arizona and they're anxious to get rolling again tonight. Detroit is 4-1 to the over in non-conference games this season and they've had just 26 unders in 69 games when coming off of a divisional game. Arizona is 6-0 to the over in non-conference games this season.
Jack Jones
Sacramento at Indiana
Play: Indiana -4.5
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the more underrated teams here in the early going. The betting public wants nothing to do with them after they traded away Paul George in the offseason. But this team has more talent than they are getting credit for.
The Pacers have already gone on the road and beaten Minnesota 130-107, and beat the San Antonio Spurs 97-94 at home to flash their potential. The backcourt of Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison is underrated, as is Domontas Sabonis.
Oladipo is averaging 25.5 points per game this season, while Sabonis is averaging 13 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He has made all 23 of his shot attempts in the Pacers' three victories this season.
The Sacramento Kings are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS this season. Their only win came against the Mavs, who are 1-7 this year. The Kings are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games, including a 33-point home loss to Washington last time out. This team is in full-blown rebuilding mode.
The Pacers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing on one days' rest. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Tony Karpinski
Sacramento at Indiana
Play: Sacramento +5
The Kings get George Hill and Zach Randolph back in the lineup after they were rested Sunday, resulting in a blowout loss to Washington. Sacramento should be very competitive here, in a series dominated lately by the underdog (5-1-1 ATS). Take the points with the Sac Kings +5 vs a weak Pacers team on Tuesday night.
Dave Price
Bowling Green vs. Kent State
Play: Bowling Green -2½
This is a battle between MAC bottom feeders Bowling Green and Kent State Tuesday night. The Falcons are 1-7, while the Golden Flashes are 2-6. But despite having the worse record, I have no doubt the Falcons are the better team here, and only having to lay -2.5 with this is a generous price. The Falcons have been the more competitive team this season. Kent State's two wins came against Howard 38-31 and Miami Ohio 17-14 both at home, and Miami was without Gus Ragland. Bowling Green beat Miami Ohio 37-29 on the road. And common opponents favors the Falcons as they are only getting outscored by 13.7 points per game against them, while Kent State is getting outscored by 20.0 points per game against the same three opponents that Bowling Green has faced. The Falcons are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 road games when playing against a team with a losing record. The Golden Flashes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. Kent State is 1-12 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who give up 200 or more rushing yards per game. Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent.
SPORTS WAGERS
KENT ST +127 over Bowling Green
n a ghastly matchup fitting for Halloween Night, the MAC sends two of its worst teams out to scare the masses. Let’s start with Bowling Green, who comes in at 1-7 after a 48-17 loss to Northern Illinois 10 days ago. On paper we can understand the appeal in the favorite in this matchup. They’ve won four straight against the Golden Flashes while outscoring Kent State 161-49 in those games. Last season, BGU blasted K-State 42-7 as 2½-point home dog and shutout the Flashes 48-0 in 2015. That kind of recency bias holds weight in this market but the trends are irrelevant.
You see, there is little to revel at with Bowling Green. The Falcons have just one win this year and that came against an opponent that Kent State also defeated, Miami Ohio. Against the Redhawks the Falcons won by eight points as a 17-point pup, while the Golden Flashes won by a 17-14 score as an 8.5-point pup. Perhaps BGU’s larger margin of victory as a heavier underdog is another selling point. However, that scenario reflects more poorly on Miami Ohio than it does bolster Bowling Green’s credibility. What is relevant is that Bowling Green lost to FCS opponent South Dakota at home in the one game it was favored in this year. As a whole, the Falcons have been nothing short of a dumpster fire since former Head Coach Dino Babers left town. Since the start of the 2016 season, BGSU has won just five games. The culture has dramatically changed in Bowling Green and the Falcons are now a team that lacks the quality to warrant any form of superlatives.
In terms of total defense, the Falcons own one of the worst defensive units in America (526.5 YPG), rushing yards (261.2 YPG), and points allowed (37.8 PPG). The Falcons sit ranked at 120th or worse nationally in these respective departments. In addition, the Falcons are also ranked 111th nationally against the pass (265.2 YPG). If the Falcons defense performs in such a way against Kent State, the Golden Flashes will not have to be concerned with doing any heavy lifting, as the opportunities to generate offense will come to them naturally.
We’re not going to sugar-coat this and attempt to convince anyone that the Flashes are better than their record suggests because they’re not but the Falcons might be worse. Kent State is sick of getting crushed by this program and now has an opportunity to get some pride back. The Flashes have already played Clemson and Louisville and even though they were whacked, it’s going to serve them well here against a team that has played an easier schedule and has looked worse. Bowling Green favored on the road is incorrect. Ken State outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +131 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild have played the fewest games in the NHL (9), which truly isn’t beneficial, as they have not been able to get into the groove of playing every other day or playing three games a week. Already this season, the Wild have had a six-day rest, a five-day rest and now a three-day rest. They’ve also been sitting at home for nine days, as they continue this current six-game home stand. The Wild have won two straight and three of their last four but the results have been better than the product on the ice. Once again, we cannot over-emphasize the luck factors or in-game variances at work in every NHL game. In that regard, it has been a rare night when Minnesota has outplayed its opposition this season. They have the worst possession % numbers in the league, ranking dead last out of 31 teams per 60 minutes. That’s not the type of team we’re interested in getting behind when spotting a tag.
Coming off a dominant win over Pittsburgh, there’s an optimism around the Jets that hasn’t been there much in recent years. The Jets are off to one of their best ever 10-game starts and we have to trust that the feeling in that locker room is a positive one. We’ve never questioned the talent on this team. Winnipeg’s top six is as good as or better than any in the game right now. What they’ve lacked previously is discipline and stable goaltending but as of this moment, neither has been an issue. Winnipeg is middle of the pack in minor penalties taken this year. Connor Hellebuyck has officially taken the reigns as the team’s starting goalie. His game was lost in the offensive explosion against Pittsburgh, but he had a quietly brilliant night with 31 saves on 32 shots. He still hasn’t lost in regulation this year and holds a 2.05 goals-against average and .937 save percentage. The Jets have so many positive things happening this year and we therefore cannot find one reason to not get behind them taking back a tag against an inferior opponent.
Arizona +155 over DETROIT
OT included. The last time we saw Detroit was when they went into Florida on Saturday night and won in OT, 3-2. However, the Red Wings took six minor penalties in that game while the Panthers fired away 46 shots on net. In a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday, the Red Wings allowed 38 shots on net and took another six minor penalties. The Red Wings rank 23rd in the NHL in penalties while the Coyotes are the second least penalized team in the league. That’s a major difference that works in Arizona’s favor. The Red Wings are not as bad as their projections suggested they were going to be. They’ve been involved in eight close games (won or lost by 1 or 2 goals) out of the 12 games they’ve played so far, thus, they’ve been a victim or recipient of more in-game variance or randomness than most. However, as the chalk in this range, Detroit has little appeal because its win expectation is not high enough to be favored by this much. The Red Wings also return home from a short three-game trip to a rather unfamiliar rink so their home ice advantage really isn’t an advantage at all. Detroit has one victory in four home games at its new arena.
Arizona is a big price here for several reasons. First off, they have one victory in 12 games and the market puts a heavy emphasis on results. Secondly, Arizona will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. It’s also the Coyotes fifth straight on the road. Finally, Arizona’s goaltending situation is shaky at best. Thing is, a massive weight was lifted off the Coyotes last night after they finally won a game that they absolutely deserved to win. Leading 3-0 early in the third and 3-1 with less than a minute to play, the Coyotes allowed the Flyers to tie it. Had the ‘Yotes lost that game, we’re not sure they would have been able to recover here (mentally) but one victory does wonders to teams psyche and that elusive first win is more likely to energize them. Arizona played a strong road game last night. Against the Islanders, Devils and Rangers, they also played well enough to win on this current five game trip. If they bring that same energy to this one, and we’re trusting they will, they’ll have just as good a chance to win here. Overlay.
Power Sports
Bowling Green vs. Kent State
Pick: Kent State +3.5
I just can't get over the fact that Bowling Green is a road favorite. Folks, this is not a good team. The Falcons have just one win on the year and it came via a wild finish vs. Miami. Up one in that game, it appeared as if they were getting ready to concede the go-ahead score in the final two minutes. But Miami fumbled and 93 yards later, it was a 37-29 win for BGSU. Since then, they've given up 98 pts in a pair of losses and are now being outscored by 17.2 PPG on the year.
Now Kent State also is not good. In fact, they join Bowling Green in the bottom 10 of my own power rankings. But factoring in home field, the Golden Flashes should be a slight favorite here. I say that knowing full well that the loss of QB Nick Holley has cripped the offense, which is averaging just 10.0 PPG for the year, which is DEAD LAST in the entire country. But fortunate for Kent here is that Bowling Green happens to rank 127th (out of 130 teams) in yards per game allowed (523.2 per game!). So, it's the resistible force against the moveable object here and something will have to give.
Incredibly, Kent State is just 4-14 SU their L18 MAC home games. But they snapped an eight-game losing streak w/ an upset of Miami two weeks ago. Ohio then destroyed them 48-3, but that was on the road. Truly frightening is that in five of seven games this year vs. FBS foes, the Golden Flashes have not scored a touchdown! But despite all that, I still favor them against a Bowling Green team that has held only one opponent under 29 pts this season. Laying points on the road w/ bad teams is not a good idea and BG is most certainly a bad team. Kent will be motivated by the fact they are at home and have lost four straight in this MAC East rivalry.
Harry Bondi
KENT STATE (+3) over Bowling Green
We will gladly go against Bowling Green and take the home dog on Halloween night. Not only are the Falcons just 1-7 ATS this season overall and 1-3 ATS on the road, but they are also allowing opposing teams to control the clock for more than 34 minutes per game and rush for an average of 258 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry. Those are not the statistics you are looking for in a team when they are laying points on the road. We’ll ride Kent State and call for the upset!
Bob Balfe
Astros +115
Houston went out and picked up Justin Verlander for this exact scenario. Verlander has been outstanding since he has put on an Astros Uniform and is pitching too well to go against. Scoring should come back down to earth tonight in this part. I believe this will be a great pitching duel and love that Verlander has lasted over 7 innings in his last few starts. This keeps Houston fresh. Rich Hill has not gone very long in his last few starts and there is no doubt Verlander is the hotter of the two pitchers right now. This game again will come down to that one big hit or one big mistake. Great series to watch, but impossible to handicap.
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix at Brooklyn
Play: Brooklyn
The Nets are home for the Suns and they have won and covered the last 4 in the series. The nets have covered 6 of the last 7 at home. Phoenix has failed to cover 9 of 11 vs losing teams and 15 of 19 with 2 days rest. Rested home favorites that allowed 120 or more and lost to the spread like the Nets are perfect vs a team like phoenix that scored 100 or more and covered their last game as a road dog. This system dates to 1995. Look for the winning team to move to 11-1 to the spread in this series.
Gary Bart
Sacramento at Indiana
Play: Indiana -5
The Kings are 1-5 on the season. Indiana are 3-3 after a big win at home against the Spurs. Sacramento are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but have played well ATS in Indiana recently. They are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 in Indiana. Take the Pacers minus the points.
Stephen Nover
Suns vs. Nets
Play: Under
Phoenix's numbers are skewed because of a coaching change. In three games under Earl Watson, the Suns allowed 128.7 points a game and allowed opponents to make half of their 3-point shots.
Jay Triano replaced Watson three games ago. In three games under Triano, the Suns are giving up an average of 105.7 points per game and holding foes to 36.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Suns did play a pair of weak scoring teams - Kings and Jazz - under Triano. But there's no doubt Triano has made a difference in Phoenix's improved defensive play.
The Suns are playing more intense under Triano. Their young players know they will be pulled if they have defensive lapses, which wasn't the case under player-friendly Watson.
The Nets should have a lot of intensity, too. They've lost two in a row since upsetting the Cavaliers, falling to the Knicks and Nuggets in a pair of blowout defeats. The Nets averaged 98.5 points during those two defeats.
D'Angelo Russell has emerged as the Nets' major scoring threat. He missed the Cavaliers game because of knee soreness. That absence may have put Russell out of rhythm. He played against the Knicks and Nuggets and was cold in both games shooting a combined 9-for-22 from the floor missing seven of eight 3-point shots.
The Nets won't have Quincy Acy for this game either due to a groin injury. Acy leads the Nets in 3-point accuracy hitting 52.4 percent.
The Under has cashed the past five times these teams have played in Brooklyn.