Free Picks for Tuesday, September 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Brandon Lee
New York at Chicago
Play: Chicago -1½
My money is on the Cubs to not only snap their losing streak, but to cash in on the run line and win here by at least 2 runs. Chicago got a much needed day off on Monday and I expect them to treat this like it's a must win. I like their chances with the edge they have one the mound. Jose Quintana takes the rubber for Chicago and is coming off back-to-back quality starts against the Pirates. He's owned teams like the Mets this season, going 13-2 against the money line in starts vs a team with a losing record. Of note here is the average win against these bad teams is by a score of 6.5 to 2.9 (+3.6). Quintana is also a perfect 6-0 this season when starting after his team has lost 3 or more consecutive games. Mets on the other hand are winless at 0-14 when listed as an underdog of +175 to +250.
Scott Rickenbach
Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Tigers +378
Yes the Indians are on an amazing 19-game winning streak but they are 4 to 1 favorites here against a division rival who has a pitcher going on the mound that has given them some trouble. In fact, Tigers southpaw Matt Boyd has a solid 2.41 ERA in his 3 starts versus the Indians this season. Boyd has allowed the same amount of earned runs (5) COMBINED in his 3 starts versus the Tribe as Corey Kluber has (5 earned runs) in ONE start versus the Tigers earlier this season. Now, don't get me wrong, the Indians are as red hot as a team can get and Kluber is certainly in great current form but, the point is, if there was such a thing as a "slippery slope streak-buster game" this is it. One thing is for certain, under normal circumstances, this match-up would never be priced at 4 to 1 odds. This is insane big dog value being offered and, keep in mind, only one team in the modern era of baseball (say the past 80 years or so) has ever won 20 straight games. Oakland in 2002 won 20 straight and that is where their streak ended. I am forecasting Cleveland's streak to end at 19. Look for the huge upset in this one and consider making a small play on the Tigers on the money line.
Stephen Nover
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +106
I'll take a plus price with Cole, one of the better pitchers in the National League, against the 28-year-old rookie converted starter, Suter.
The Brewers were caught celebrating their three-game sweep of the Cubs this past weekend falling 7-0 to the Pirates and rookie Steven Brault on Monday. Now they draw Cole, Pittsburgh's No. 1 starter.
I give the Brewers tremendous credit for their season. They have been one of the biggest surprises. But I wonder how their youngsters will react to the pressure of being in a tight playoff race down the stretch? It's something they haven't experienced.
Suter is making his second start since returning from a strained rotator cuff. He pitched six days ago in relief. Suter is not 100 percent, which Brewers manager Craig Counsell adimitted. "We're not there yet with him from a health perspective and a building-him -up perspective," Counsell was quoted as saying. "We're just not there. So it's going to be (a start) where we're going to have to rely on our bullpen."
The Brewers are tough in the late innings with set-up man Anthony Swarzak and closer Corey Knebel, but vulnerable in middle relief.
Cole isn't the elite pitcher he was two seasons ago when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA. But he's had a much better year than last season. Cole has been solid with a 3.27 ERA during his past 16 starts. He's in good form with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts and is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA in four starts versus Milwaukee this season with 32 strikeouts in 27 innings.
Jimmy Boyd
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8½
I like the value here with Tuesday's total in the NL Central showdown that has the Reds visiting the Cardinals. Busch Stadium is already a pitchers park and will be even more so tonight with winds expected to be blowing in from left field at close to 15 mph. On top of that, we have two quality starters taking the mound here.
St Louis will send out veteran Lance Lynn, who has quietly had a great season with a 2.94 ERA in 29 starts. He's been at his best at home, where his ERA drops to 2.87 and comes in on fire with a 1.29 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Not to mention he's owned the Reds of late. He's faced them 3 times this season and allowed just 1 run in each start. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in his past 9 starts against Cincinnati.
Reds counter with Robert Stephenson, who has impressed in limited action and comes in with a 2.55 ERA in his last 3 starts. He should benefit from facing a struggling Cardinals offense, which is hitting just .224 as a team over their last 7.
Teddy Davis
Houston at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles +119
I wonder if the Astros are calling it quits for the season right now. They just got swept by the A's and quite frankly don't have much to play for here the rest of the season. Everyone will be jumping the Astros with Verlander on the mound as well. I think Richards in his third start this season they will let him go deep and he has been sharp so far in limited innings only giving up 1 run in 7 innings. The Angels just have more to play for and I see them beating the struggling Astros.
Larry Wallace
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York -1½
Going with the Yankees in this match-up against the Rays. Sonny Gray this year is 9-9 with a 3.22 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA. Gray in his career against the Ray is 3-2. Snell this year is 3-6 with a 4.44 ERA. While pitching at home Snell is 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games on the road against a team with a losing record.
Will Rogers
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York -144
The set up: Hurricane Irma has reeked havoc on the Rays here as instead of hosting the Yankees this week, this series is being contested at Citi Field, home of the Mets. No longer having to go on a road trip, the Yankees should benefit immensely from this change in venue. They won Monday's opener, 5-1, and look to be in prime position to make it two straight over their AL East rival as Sonny Gray is pitching tonight. The Yanks have won seven of their last night games and three straight. As for Tampa Bay, they've lost four of five and are in real danger of dropping out of playoff contention.
The pitching matchup: Acquired at the trade deadline, Gray has pitched well for the Yankees. In seven starts, his ERA is 2.74 and he's lasted at least six innings in all but two of those. He went 5 2/3 innings his last start, but the only run he allowed was unearned and the team ended up recording an easy 9-1 win over Baltimore. Gray has faced TB twice this season (both with Oakland) and pitched well both times. He has 16 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Tampa will send out Blake Snell, who is coming off a rather ugly outing. He allowed six runs in his shortest stint in more than a month (four innings) and the Rays lost 10-6 to the Twins. Despite making 20 starts this year, Snell has only three wins.
The pick: The Yankees are the road team "in name only" here as the majority of last night's crowd were their fans. Quietly, they have put together the American League's second best run differential (+156), trailing only red hot Cleveland. Home or road, Tampa Bay has been positively mediocre in 2017 and a 5-9 record vs. New York certainly hasn't helped. The "road team" is my call here.
Jim Feist
Astros at Angels
Pick: Over 8
This is a good home run park and a strong Houston offense is in town. Houston is 9-1 over the total after an off day, plus 16-6 over during Game 1 of a series. 34-year old Justin Verlander has a losing road mark and a 4.58 ERA this season. Los Angeles is on a 7-3-1 run over the total and starter Garrett Richards is on a pitch count. The Over is 7-3-1 in Richards' last 11 starts overall.
Wunderdog
Marlins vs. Phillies
Pick: Phillies -109
Miami is on a 2-12 run and playing its fourth straight road contest. The players aren't all focused on baseball, as the team and the state of Florida are dealing with the destruction from Hurricane Irma. A rough September has all but eliminated the Marlins from the National League Wild Card race. The Marlins are 3-13 against the NL East and face a Philadelphia squad beginning a 10-game homestand. The Marlins are going with lefty Dillon Peters, who is winless while making his third Major League start, and the Phillies have won five straight against southpaws. Miami is 43-81 after a game where their bullpen blew a save and 10-31 away after scoring 8+ runs, making this a great spot for the home team.
John Martin
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Marlins -112
I'm backing the Miami Marlins and prospect Dillon Peters tonight as a short road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies. Peters has been impressive in his two starts, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 14 batters in 12 innings. One of those starts was against the Phillies on September 1st as he tossed 7 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. Nick Pivetta has been one of the worst starters in baseball, going 5-10 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 22 starts. Pivetta is 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in three previous starts against the Marlins, all of which have come this season.
Jack Jones
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -114
The Milwaukee Brewers have battled their way to within 2.5 games of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central. They just swept the Cubs before getting shut out by the Pirates yesterday. It was probably a letdown spot, but now look for them to bounce back in a big way Tuesday night.
The Pirates are still 1-5 in their last six games overall to fall to 68-77 on the season and out of postseason contention. I'll be questioning their motivation moving forward. Gerrit Cole went into Milwaukee on August 16th and lost 6-7 as he gave up 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings.
Brent Suter has held his own for the Brewers, going 2-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in five home starts. Suter has posted a 3.85 ERA in his only career start against Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are 6-16 in their last 22 road games. Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Cole's last five starts. The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Milwaukee is 4-1 in Suter's last five home starts. The Pirates are 25-67 in the last 92 meetings in Milwaukee.
Mike Lundin
Los Angeles vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco +1.5
The Los Angeles Dodgers have dropped 11 straight and they have just one single victory through their last 17 games. That was a 1-0 win at San Diego on September 1 with Clayton Kershaw (16-3, 2.15 ERA) on the mound. They did however lose Kershaw's last start 9-1 against the Rockies home in LA and the left-hander was charged with four runs on six hits and three walks in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
This looks like a great price to back the San Francisco Giants on the runline as they hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (7-7, 4.43 ERA). The 31 year old right-hander struck out seven while holding the Rockies to one run in five innings at tricky Coors Field his last time out. Cueto has a solid 3.21 ERA in 16 career starts against the Dodgers.
The Giants have won 20 of the last 27 meetings at AT&T Park outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +150 over ST. LOUIS
Robert Stephenson doesn’t have appealing surface stats (5.15 ERA) but he’s a starter high on our radar because his stock is so much lower than it should be. We’ve written about Stephenson in the past and nothing has changed. This is a starter with nasty stuff that can dominate any lineup as long as he’s throwing strikes. He has 69 K’s in 65 innings but the problem is the 43 walks he’s issued over that same trial. Stephenson has a 2.19/4.27 ERA/xERA over his last five starts but that xERA is all because of walks issued. He will walks guys here but if he stays within himself, like he’s been doing lately, he has the ability to work around walks because his stuff is so good. That’s a gamble we’re willing to make because the take-back is so good also.
Lance Lynn will be making his fourth start of the season against the Reds with all three of the previous starts resulting in weak outcomes. He has not thrown a **pure quality start over his last eight starts and has been extremely lucky over his last 13 starts, going 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Lance Lynn’s xERA over those aforementioned 13 starts is 5.58, which incredibly is near four runs higher than his actual ERA over that span. We don’t know what’s going to happen here but we do know we’re getting tremendous value for our money so let’s hope it pays off like we expect it to.
**When we talk about quality starts, we’re not referring to the old Bill James method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — as it is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 5.2 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total quality start score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
We can then give a starter a pure quality start score of 0 through for each start.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure-quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. Again, Lance Lynn does not have a pure quality start over his last 13 starts.
The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time. This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.
Atlanta +150 over WASHINGTON
Julio Teheran is pitching well on the road recently, with three of his last four resulting in a dominant start. One of his three starts against the Nationals this season has resulted in a gem too. Teheran has been great on the road, where in 13 starts he is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. That’s the skinny on Teheran but he’s not our target here. Our target is the Nationals in a vulnerable spot with a vulnerable starter going.
After a four-game set with Philadelphia this past weekend and a day off yesterday, we would not be a bit surprised to see the Nationals and their 20-game lead in the NL East take a bit of a breather this series. You see, the Nationals have the Dodgers up next in Washington so fans, media and players are obviously anticipating that showdown, especially with the Dodgers in the midst of a remarkable slump that might be even more remarkable than their record before it. In any event, from an emotional or situational standpoint, this would be the perfect time to take back a big price against what could be a disinterested starter and host.
As fate would have it, it is Gio Gonzalez’s turn in the rotation and he’s been a fade target of ours for weeks now. This is by far one of the luckiest pitchers in the game and it’s about to blow up. Mark our words on this one and keep fading him, especially come playoff time when lucky pitchers almost always get exposed. Gonzalez’s swing and miss rate since the beginning of August is 4%. That’s Bartolo Colon territory. His 55% first-pitch strike rate this season is weak but Gonzalez hasn’t paid the price yet. His velocity has decreased every month and now his fastball is averaging 89.2 MPH. Somehow, someway, Gio Gonzalez has been able to post an ERA of 2.50 but hitters have caught on to his 4th consecutive year of fastball velocity decline. Concurrent 2nd half drops in swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike rate shows declining quality of his stuff. With an xERA of 4.29 this season and an xERA of 5.17 since the beginning of August, Gonzalez is ripe for regression. This is at best a league average pitcher that is defying logic to a high degree and when it inevitably blows up, we’ll be there to cash in. Hopefully it happens here.
Pittsburgh +105 over MILWAUKEE
Gerrit Cole has quietly regained his ace form but he’s certainly not priced like it here. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find four starters in the entire game that have been better than Cole since the All-Star break and he keeps getting better. Over his last 12 starts Cole is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Over his last 33 frames, he has whiffed 36 batters with a skill supported 14% swing and miss rate. This season, Cole has walked a mere 47 batters in 181 innings, which is close to one walk every four innings. An emphasis on getting ahead early in the count with some filthy pitches increases his value here against a Brewers team that strikes out often. Throw in his elite batted ball profile of 50% grounders, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls and one gets a clear picture of just how good Cole is and has been for weeks. That he’s taking back anything against Brent Suter is a steal.
Brent Suter has walked six batters and struck out five over his past nine frames covering two starts and one relief appearance. Suter caught lightning in a bottle earlier this year before reality and set in and so he was subsequently related to bullpen duty. However, with the injury to Jimmy Nelson, Suter is now forced back into the rotation after a month in the ‘pen. His last start was on Aug 12 against the Reds in which he lasted five innings, walked four and allowed five earned runs. Dude threw 100 pitches in five frames. Brent Suter’s fastball averages 84.9 MPH. He has poor control and a 3.00 WHIP over his last 14 innings pitched, which is the equivalent of pitching with the bases loaded every inning. What makes Suter appealing is his shiny 3.55 ERA but don’t buy it. Instead, sell his 6.91 xERA as a starter. Wrong side favored.
Power Sports
San Diego vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -177
The next two days figure to be an excellent opportunity for the Twins to square away their home record (currently two games under .500!) as they get to welcome in the lowly Padres for a late-season Interleague set. Really, given the sub-.500 home mark, it's pretty remarkable that the Twins are in the position they are in, which is leading the chase for the AL's second Wild Card. The problem for them this year, at least at home, has been giving up too many runs. But that shouldn't be an issue here against the Padres (even w/ the DH) as they are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball.
In order to compete, the Padres need quality starting pitching, but they don't figure to get it tonight from Travis Wood, who has a 5.03 ERA his L8 starts and now must deal w/ an AL lineup. Wood has been brutal in two of his last three starts, resulting in an 8.74 ERA and 2.560 WHIP during that timespan. The Padres are a bad road team (26-44 record) as they allow 5.5 runs per game and that's facing mostly NL lineups.
Kyle Gibson has been sharp of late for Minnesota w/ a 1.83 ERA his L3 starts, all of those resulting in wins for the team. Going back, Gibson has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight consecutive starts. This should be one of his easiest ones of the year.