Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, September 19th, 2017

Brandon Lee

Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8

I think the combination of quality starters going and ideal pitching conditions make the UNDER a strong play in Tuesday's game between the Dodgers and Phillies. The wind is expected to be blowing in from straight center at Citizens Bank Park between 15 and 20 mph. That's going to make it tough to score for two teams that like to swing for the fences. Dodgers will send out You Darvish, who has had his ups and downs in LA, but is coming off a great outing, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings at San Francisco. Phillies will send out Aaron Nola, who has been sharp at home, going 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts. Nola is also catching the Dodgers at the right time, as LA has scored 3 or less runs in 3 straight games and are hitting just .209 as a team over their last 7.

Mike Lundin

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Brewers -119

The Milwaukee Brewers have won eight of their last 10 games following a 3-0 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates Monday night. They're fighting ferociously on their mission to track down the Rockies for the 2nd Wild Card in the National League, and I think they'll earn another W here with Chase Anderson on the hill.

Anderson (10-3, 2.88 ERA) is 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh, including perfect 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA on the season. The Brew Crew have won each of his last two starts with the right-hander allowing just one earned run through 10 1/3 innings of work.

The Pirates counter with Trevor Williams (6-8, 4.26 ERA) who was tagged with four runs and four hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals his last time out. He surrendered three runs and six hits in six innings against the Brewers back in June in the lone career meeting heading into this contest.

Brewers are 4-0 in Anderson's last four starts against the Pirates and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.

Stephen Nover

Twins vs. Yankees
Play: Twins +147

The Twins are the best money-making road underdog in baseball. That's where we find them today taking a hefty mid-range plus price.

The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios versus lefty CC Sabathia. Berrios has the lower ERA and is just beginning what promises to be a very good career. Depending on how you feel about Ervin Santana, Berrios is either the No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher on Minnesota. Berrios has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 23 starts this season. In more than one-third of his starts, Berrios has held opponents to one earned run or fewer.

While Berriors is just entering his prime years, Sabathia is in the twillight of his career. Sabathia, who has chronic sore knees, was pushed back two days so he wouldn't have to pitch off the artificial turf in Toronto. So he is pitching on seven days rest here. Sabathia has a lifetime ERA of 4.17 when pitching with six or more days rest. He's done that seven times this year with an ERA of 4.72 in those outings.

The Twins are six games above .500 on the road and also have a winning mark versus lefties.

Power Sports

Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Washington

It's a high price to pay here, but Max Scherzer was actually beaten by the Braves in his last outing, giving up seven runs in the process. He'll again be opposed by Luiz Gohara, making this an "immediate revenge" situation and I don't see lightning striking twice. It was - rather easily - the worst start of the year for Scherzer, who continues to pace the National League in strikeouts (246) and WHIP (0.92) while ranking 2nd in ERA (2.59). Bottom line is that I expect him to dominate the Braves this go around.

For six innings, Scherzer looked like his normal self last Wednesday. He'd allowed just two runs and had 7 K's. Then the wheels came off, seemingly right as his pitch count hit 100. Note, however, that while Scherzer was charged w/ five more runs, it was not he that gave up a grand slam to the Braves' Matt Kemp. (It was reliever Brandon Kitzler). But I won't let one bad inning cloud my view of Scherzer, who remains one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball. He's surprisingly struggled some against Atlanta this season, but was 4-0 against them in '16. Furthermore, he has a 1.79 ERA and 0.816 WHIP on the road this year (8-2 in 14 starts).

Gohara, a rookie, will be making just his third big league start here. Pitching in Washington last week certainly went a lot better than his debut when he allowed six runs (in four innings) here at home to Texas (an AL lineup sans DH). Despite his success last time out, Gohara will be facing a lineup that ranks fourth in all of baseball in runs scored, third in batting average and second in slugging. The Nats had won five straight Scherzer starts prior to last Weds, so the odds of a bounce back this time around are quite high. I wouldn't be scared off due to price here.

Jim Feist

Red Sox at Orioles
Pick: Over 8.5

Camden Yards is a good hitter's park and good offenses clash. Boston is #10 in baseball in runs scored, and starter Drew Pomeranz is better at home, walking 36 batters with 78 hits in 78 road innings. The Over is 9-2 in Pomeranz's last 11 starts vs. the American League East, as well as 6-2 over when he starts on the road. Baltimore is #12 in baseball in runs scored, Starter Kevin Gausman (4.83 ERA) has had a tough year and the Over is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

SPORTS WAGERS

CINCINNATI +100 over St. Louis

The Cardinals Wild Card hopes are hanging by a thread, which is more than enough motivation for the Reds to put this hated rival out of their misery. The Reds continue to be a serious threat at home (39-36) while the Cards are 35-40 on the road.

Jack Flaherty has made three starts since being called up in September and while the scouting reports were good, the results have not been. The scouting report said that the 21-year-old right-hander started the year at Double-A, had great success, and then pitched 85 innings at Triple-A Memphis in the tough Pacific Coast League. Didn't matter, as he pitched well there too with a decent strikeout rate while his walk rate only rose slightly. Flaherty stands 6'4" and weighs 205 pounds. The former first-rounder has a solid four-pitch mix and he throws strikes. So while none of his pitches are truly plus, and thus he is not likely to become an ace, he has a very good chance of reaching his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. He knows how to pitch, his mechanics are repeatable, and he has shown consistent success all the way up the minor league ladder. His fastball only reaches the low-90s mph, but he knows how to mix in his curve, slider and changeup to keep batters off balance. For his minor league career his oppBA is just .239 and that has shown in his low WHIPs. He knows how to throw strikes with four pitches, he rarely walks batters, and hitters have a hard time squaring up against him. Other than a slight flyball tilt that could lead to some home runs, this is the kind of package you look for in a No. 3 starter. In four minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.77 with a 1.18 WHIP in 400.1 IP.

That’s a nice scouting report but some guys never make the successful transition from the minors to the majors and thus far, Flaherty has been getting whacked. In 13 innings, Flaherty has been tagged for 16 hits and 11 runs with three of those hits leaving the park. He was taken yard in all three starts (at SD, at SF and at home) and will now pitch in a bandbox. That aforementioned fly-ball tilt has been a problem and so has his 1.65 WHIP after three starts. Furthermore. the Reds saw him in St. Louis, whacked him and will now see him for the second time in less than a week. Chances are that Flaherty gets hit hard again because his confidence can’t be high and batters are having no trouble at all picking up what he’s trying to do. This is a fragile rookie right now.

Another unknown by the name of Jackson Stephens will oppose Flaherty. Stephens has only made one career start, which came back in July where he struck out eight across five innings. He was called up in September where he has made three appearances out of the bullpen with a maximum of 32 pitches. It is hard to envision him going deep into this game but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Reds will use a bunch of relievers here if need be or maybe Stephens will be extended a bit. Either way, this bet is all about attacking Flaherty and getting behind these dangerous teams in the role of the spoiler.

PHILADELPHIA +156 over Los Angeles

As the final 12 to 13 games of the season wind down, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the best record in the NL unless they lose a bunch and the Nationals win something like 10 of their last 13 games. The point is that the Dodgers can relax a bit after putting the Nationals away last weekend. With a comfortable lead and virtually nothing in doubt, now is the time to for the Dodgers to stay sharp, avoid extra inning games and set their rotation up the way they want it for the first playoff series. The Dodgers are absolutely vulnerable to losses, especially against such a good starter like Aaron Nola.

Nola faces a Dodgers offense that has has slowed way down in August and September where they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game with a .212 BA and .657 OPS. Eight of Nola's last nine home starts have resulted in dominant starts. In 12 home starts this season he owns a 3.01 ERA/3.21 xERA split and 1.03 WHIP. Nola has put up some of the best results of any starter in MLB when he pitches at home and those elite-level stats have been supported by excellent skills too with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9 and a 51% groundball rate. Taking back a price like this at home with Nola is as good as it gets, especially against what appears to be a disinterested visitor.

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has struggled since joining the Dodgers, as in seven starts he is just 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Of those seven starts, he has thrown a dominant start in two while throwing a disaster in three. Darvish’s 40%/23%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split increases his risk at this park. While Yu Darvish is very capable of throwing a gem here, it is Aaron Nola who is slaying lineups these days while Darvish has been hit and miss. A more motivated Phillies’ squad at home with the better starter at such a sweet price gets this call.

ATLANTA +186 over Washington

If we’re attacking the Dodgers due to complacency, we must apply that to the Nationals too, as they will easily win the NL East and easily finish second overall in the NL. it is now a waiting game for the playoffs to start but don’t tell that to Dusty Baker, who would rather win a meaningless game in September by working his best pitcher to the bone, then worry about having said pitcher fresh and ready to go in round one. We’ll see if Dusty has learned his lesson, as he pushed Max Scherzer to 116 pitches in his last start in under six innings against these same Braves, who tagged Scherzer for seven runs. Current Braves have seen Scherzer a ton and have had success against him because they put the ball in play. While both Scherzer and Baker are gamers, we can’t imagine this start is for the purpose of proving anything or getting Max a victory. Scherzer may be destined for another five or six innings but we can live with anything because the price is so good and Atlanta’s starter is a stud in the making.

Luiz Gohera will make his third major league start after getting whacked in his first start and dominating in his second. Pitchers making their debuts are extremely unpredictable because of nerves, anticipation, excitement and all the other things that go with making it to the big show. We never put much emphasis on a poor debut it paid off when we backed Gohera against these Nationals last time out. We'll come right back on him here.

This hard-throwing lefty has always had the ingredients to be a stud and we saw evidence of it in his last start. Gohara can reach the 96-98 mph range with his fastball from his three-quarter arm slot. It is a legitimate plus pitch and he’s done a nice job of throwing strikes with it. Adding to his effectiveness is his slider which is now considered a plus pitch as well. It misses bats due to its late break. Gohara is aided by a deceptive delivery which makes him even more dangerous. He has vaulted up prospect charts, as he’s starting to put everything together. In the minors at Triple A before the call-up, Gohara was whiffing 12.2 batters per nine innings while holding the opposition to a .219 average. He’s struck out 12 batter in 10 innings thus far and looked so much better in his second start than he did in his first. Knowing now that he can get MLB batters adds to his confidence and we’re more than thrilled to get him at home at this price against anyone.

Chicago +196 over HOUSTON

Situational betting is one part of our criteria but it doesn’t apply often to MLB because there are 162 games in a season and these players are trained not to get too high or too low. However, one cannot take the human element out of anything and in that regard, we cannot overstate the euphoria a team feels when they finally clinch a playoff spot after such a long and grueling schedule.

On Sunday, the Astronauts with Justin Verlander on the hill, clinched the AL West crown and there was a big celebration that probably lasted well into the night. When the Astros traded for Justin Verlander less than three weeks ago, they envisioned days just like that. Verlander struck out 10 over seven innings in his first home start for Houston in what the media is referring to a storybook clinching game. The Astros acquired Verlander from Detroit on Aug. 31, just minutes before the deadline for players to be eligible for postseason play. He had made two starts on the road before his Minute Maid Park debut. After a clinching win that was both emotional and celebratory, the Astronauts had a day off yesterday to digest it. They may need another day or two to get back into focus, as an emotional letdown is almost inevitable.

We also like the pitching matchup here, as Colin McHugh is average on his best day while Lucas Giolito is the South Side’s ace of the future and has not looked a bit out of place in his first five MLB starts (2.56 ERA). Giolito is the real and this is both a great spot and price to bet against the Astronauts. The White Sox have been hot with the bats recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .821 OPS in September.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -116

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a short home favorite against the Cubs. This line is just begging for you to take Chicago with the Cubs coming in having won 6 straight, but all 6 of those wins came at home.

The biggest key here is the pitching matchup and I feel it heavily favors the home team. Tampa send outs their ace Chris Archer, who has a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 15 home starts. Archer also pitched well against the Cubs earlier this season in Chicago, allowing just 3 runs in 6 innings. Cubs will counter with left Mike Montgomery, who has a not so great 5.14 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

There's also a strong system in play backing a fade of the Cubs. NL road underdogs who are a good offensive team (4.5+ runs/game) are just 35-79 in the month of September over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Rays.

Mark Franco

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Brewers -115

The Milwaukee Brewers are a hot team entering Tuesday's road contest against the slumping Pittsburgh Pirates as they attempt to chase down a playoff spot. The Brewers recorded a 3-0 victory in Monday's opener of the three-game set and have tallied 60 runs while winning eight of their past 10 games.

Anderson has won back-to-back starts as well as three consecutive decisions. The 29-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 12 road starts, compared to a perfect 5-0 home mark. Anderson is 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh -- and 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in two 2017 starts, including a victory in his last turn when he gave up two runs (one earned) and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Williams lost to St. Louis in his last outing and has dropped four of its past five decisions. The 25-year-old gave up four runs and four hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals, marking the third time in his last five outings that he pitched five or fewer innings. Williams allowed three runs and six hits in six innings during a no-decision on June 21 in his lone career start against Milwaukee.

Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 10-2 in Andersons last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pirates are 1-11 in their last 12 vs. National League Central. Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Randazzo behind home plate.

Kyle Hunter

Dodgers at Phillies
Play: Phillies +152

The Philadelphia Phillies have won 5 of their last 7 games. Bad teams who are playing well late in the season have been good to bettors over the long run. There are a few angles I like here. First, let's look at Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched worse against bad teams in his career. Since the 2013 season, if you have been fading Darvish and going with the underdog who has won less than 50% of their games, you are 21-19 and up $2,009 as a $100 per game bettor. Fading Darvish as a big favorite has been a great strategy. Second, during game one and two of a series, underdogs of +165 or less in game 150 or later going against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher have delivered an ROI of 18.4% in the last 10 years. The ugly underdogs have been good bets this time of the year. Aaron Nola has definite shutdown potential. He's inconsistent, but we're getting a huge price here, and he's very capable of throwing a shutout. The Phillies offense has been hitting well of late, and the bullpen is much improved. In fact, the Dodgers and Phillies bullpens have the same FIP in the past month.

Larry Ness

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee -116

The Milwaukee Brewers won 3-0 at Pittsburgh last night, in the opener of a three-game set. The victory moved the Brewers within 3 1/2 games of the idle Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and two games in back of the Colorado Rockies for the second wild-card spot. Milwaukee is trying to chase down a playoff spot (NL Central title or wild card) and has now won EIGHT of 10, while scoring a total of 60 runs. The problem is, the Cubs return to the field of play tonight at Tampa Bay, owners of a six-game winning streak. As for the Rockies, their next nine games are against teams with losing records. Speaking of losing records, the Pirates have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games, scoring two or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games.

Chase Anderson (10-3, 2.88 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams (6-8, 4.26 ERA). Anderson has been a nice surprise for the Brewers, although the team has gone just 2-7 in his no-decisions, leaving the Milwaukee a disappointing 12-10 in all his starts, despite that excellent 2.88 ERA. Anderson has pitched well against Pittsburgh in his career, going 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts (teams are 6-4).

Williams lost to St Louis in his last outing and has dropped four of his last five decisions. He lasted just 4.1 innings against the Cardinals in his last outing, marking the third time in his last five outings that he has pitched five or fewer innings. Williams allowed three runs on six hits in six innings during a no-decision on June 21 in his lone career start against Milwaukee (0-0 with a 4.50 ERA / team is 0-1).

The Brewers are not going down without a fight, while the Pirates seeming can't wait for October 1 (last day of the regular season). Anderson has won back-to-back starts, as well as three consecutive decisions, plus is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in two 2017 start against the Pirates. I'll go with the road team.

Jack Jones

Chicago at Tampa Bay
Play: Chicago +113

Getting the Chicago Cubs as underdogs is a nice value here as Joe Maddon returns to Tampa Bay. The Cubs still have a lot to play for as they are only 3.5 games up on the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. The Rays have nothing to play for but pride after going 3-7 in their last 10 games to fall to 73-77 on the season.

Left-hander Mike Montgomery has done his best work on the highway, going 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in six road starts this year. The Rays are 17-27 (-9 units) vs. left-handed starters this season, hitting just .231 and scoring 4.0 runs per game off them.

Chris Archer remains one of the most overvalued starters in the big leagues due to his big strikeout totals. But Archer is clearly wearing down here late, going 0-3 with a massive 14.14 ERA and 3.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games. Chicago is 30-12 in its last 42 vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 7-0 in their last seven vs. AL East opponents. The Rays are 8-22 in Archer's last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last seven vs. a left-handed starter.

Wunderdog

Washington @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +185

Washington has already clinched the National League East title. The Nationals head out on the road after playing a 10-game homestand. They are just 4-4 the last eight games, losing as chalk of -164, -170 and -320. That -320 was the last time Max Scherzer took the mound, getting whipped 8-2 by this Atlanta squad. The Braves got him for seven hits, six walks and seven runs in six innings. Scherzer threw 116 pitches, the most in a game since July 7. That July 7 game was also against these Braves, where he allowed four runs in 7+ innings, so for the season Scherzer has a 4.91 ERA against Atlanta in 25+ innings -- the highest ERA of any opponent in 2017. Scherzer has also surrendered 11 runs in his past two starts. Atlanta is home for the fourth straight game on a 7-4 run, winning straight-up as a dog five times. The Braves are 25-17 after playing six straight against division rivals, plus 23-17 after scoring two or fewer runs.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas at Seattle
Play: Texas

Texas is a live dog here tonight. This one is a revenge game from last week between Perez and Leake as these two squared off last week with Seattle winning. The Mariners fit a solid system that plays against them and any home favorites that comes home off a road +140 or higher road dog loss where they scored 2 or less runs vs a team like Texas that won as a road dog at +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. These home favorites like Seattle are a money burning 5-15 since 2004. Based on the system and the revenge we will take Texas.

Carmine Bianco

Brighton & Hove at Bournemouth
Play: Bournemouth -111

These sides met last week in Bournemouth in the EPL's week 5 with Bournemouth getting their first points and win of the season and we'll come right back with them today in EFL Cup action. Statistically they held a big advantage in almost all categories last week but managed to fall behind before a couple 2nd half goals to get us the win here. With no other European play for either side we'd expect the same line ups for this competition and a similar result for a side that plays well at home.