John Martin
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +155
The Philadelphia Phillies are worth a shot today as big home dogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is a Dodgers team that hasn't cared much down the stretch because they basically already have the top seed in the NL locked up. They are now 5-18 in their last 23 games after losing as whopping -380 favorites to the Phillies last night. The Phillies will be motivated to beat them again here and to show off a young lineup that has played well down the stretch, going 5-2 in their last seven games overall. Now Philly ace Aaron Nola gets the ball, and he's 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 home starts. Yu Darvish is 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA in his last five starts for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 2-15 in their last 17 games following a loss. The Phillies are 8-1 in Nola's last nine starts when working on 5 days of rest.
Dave Price
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Angels -106
The Los Angeles Angels are just 1.5 games back of the Minnesota Twins for the 2nd wild card spot. The Twins have a tough series in New York right now, so they have a chance to gain some ground here. The Indians are coming off their huge winning streak and it's likely they will let up here down the stretch. Tyler Skaggs is coming off his best start of the season, pitching 7 shutout innings in a 9-1 home victory over the Houston Astros on September 13th. Mike Clevinger faced the Angels back on July 25th, giving up 6 runs, 11 base runners and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings.
Tommy Brunson
Tuesday's comp play release is the Under in the Dodgers-Phillies game.
Their series opened last night with an Under as Los Angeles has now gone 4-1 Under the total in their last 5 games, a streak that started with Yu Darvish getting back on track in holding the Giants to just one run his last time to the mound.
Darvish is facing the Phillies for the first time in his career, so you would think he owns a slight advantage over the hitter who have not seen him before. Plus, Darvish owns a 2.59 ERA this season on the highway.
With last night's Under, Philly has now played Under in each of their last 4 games, and is 5-1-2 Under the posted price in their last 8 games played.
Aaron Nola was rock-solid his last trip to the hill - 7 innings of 1 run ball with 11 strikeouts versus Miami - a game that ended in a push totals-wise. 7 of Nola's 11 home starts this season have ended in the Under column.
Low-scoring game in the City of Brotherly Love tonight.
Dodgers-Phillies Under the total.
4* L.A. DODGERS-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Joey Juice
A pair of A.L. East rivals get set to duke it out in game 2 of a very important series. Red Sox on the road against the Orioles after recording a 10-8 win in 11 innings in the opening game of the series Monday night.
A Boston win in this game could turn out to be the final blow for the Orioles, and their ever-fading chances of a wild-card berth.
A look inside the numbers shows that the Red Sox are "road warriors" when they play bad teams, 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
They also seem to play nearly flawless baseball on Tuesday nights, as the Red Sox are 24-5 in their last 29 Tuesday games.
Baltimore, on the other hand, can't get it together against winning teams, 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. They also can't play on the grass, 1-7 in their last 8 games on grass To make matters worse, these Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Bottom line, its "goodnight" Orioles, so bet Boston!
4* BOSTON
Jack Brayman
Short and sweet freebie: I like the Houston Astros to demoralize the Chicago White Sox tonight, and will be playing the home team on the Run Line.
The motivation is simple: with the American League West title locked up, it's time to wrap up the best record on the junior circuit.
With 13 games left in the season, the Astros are just 1 1/2 games behind the recently streaking Cleveland Indians for the best record in the AL and home-field advantage in the postseason. The Astros need to beat the Indians with records, since Cleveland owns the tiebreaker with a season series mark of 5-1.
Houston will roll tonight, against the sad South Siders.
3* ASTROS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free winner last night was a baseball total, as I nailed the New York Mets and Miami Marlins to sail past the easy number. I told you it would get to double digits, and it hit 14. Tonight my money is on the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays going Over the posted number.
I don't know about Montgomery, who returns to the rotation to open this series tonight. The left-hander is 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 starts, and was relegated to the bullpen as backup over the weekend against the Cardinals. I'm just not a fan of his mechanics, and how he handles himself under pressure. If he gets rattled, he gets rocked.
Meanwhile, with one of my favorite pitchers in the league, Archer is in after taking the loss on Wednesday against the New York Yankees, as he allowed three runs in four innings. He did beat he Cubs at Wrigley Field back on July 4, when he allowed three runs in six innings. But the problem is Archer is 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 post-All-Star break starts.
These two starters will get tagged enough to see this total over before the bullpen comes into play.
Play it high.
2* Cubs-Rays Over
Bobby Dalton
Milwaukee Brewers -115 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Chase Anderson has been Mr. Reliable for the Brewers as in 21 of 22 starts this season he has allowed four or fewer runs, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 18 of 22 outings. Since returning from the DL for the stretch run Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six starts including beating the Pirates last Wednesday.
Trevor Williams has held a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation with average numbers this season, though he was skipped last week to keep his inning count down. Williams also has been struggling with one win in his last six starts and a 4.54 ERA with a 4.81 BB/9 rate in that span. There isn’t a big advantage for Williams at home and left-handed batters are hitting .294 against him with the Brewers batting seven lefties last night against right-handed Jameson Taillon and a similar deployment will be possible tonight.
Milwaukee’s playoff odds are getting steeper but it is of no fault of the team’s recent results with an 8-2 run to notch win #80 last night. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up with a .771 team OPS the past 11 games for 5.5 runs per game and the bullpen has been outstanding in recent weeks.
After showing some life mid-season the Pirates have called the season with a 5-15 run the past 20 games. Pittsburgh offense has failed top three runs in 11 of the last 12 games as the Pirates could finish with league worst offensive numbers as a season OPS of just .703 id down to .595 over the past 12 games, averaging 1.8 runs per game.
Bob Balfe
Brewers -120
Much like last night we have the Brewers fighting for a wild card spot and the Pirates who have emotionally checked out for the season. The Brewers have the better starting pitcher and have been playing much better. At this price there is no reason not to play them yet again.
Dave Essler
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -115
Obviously the Cubs haven't seen Archer - but more importantly I don't (and haven't all season) liked the Cubs in bigger parks - they tend to score in bunches with long balls more than not, and this is one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. Both pens have been equally good - at basically a PK at home with Archer, this is where the value is IMO. I doubt the Rays will blow a five-run lead a la the Orioles last night, but this 2H anything is possible.